Stats Help

[Benny]

I need the stats on those horses that on the first five lines in the pre post betting.

I need to how this has gone in the past.

I stress that this is a place only plan.

Benny

[Bhagwan]

Stats for morning line pre-post market ranking order
Rank--W%--P%
1-----27---58
2-----18---46
3-----13---39
4-----11---33
5------8---30


Cheers.

[Benny]

Was there a profit/loss with the place bets.

Benny

[partypooper]

Benny, I think I know where you're at with this one. Went down that road a long time ago and couldn't make it pay, though I did manage many combinations that showed break even for the place, I only got into profit when I applied the same principles with Top Rated horses (using a well know ratings service or your own if you can do it) and, MOST IMPORTANTLY betting at maxi-divi and or BEST tote.

[Benny]

Can you explain further?

Benny

[Dalray]

Bhagwan,
Who's Pre-Post Market are you using and would you say they are the consisently closer to S.P. If not who could be the best P.P.odds.
If it not to much trouble what was the average Win price for each Rank And being a real pain in the arse have you got the S.P. for the above---Rank---Win--Av Div.

Thanks in advance.

Ray.

[Lin]

I need the stats on those horses that on the first five lines in the pre post betting.

I need to how this has gone in the past.

I stress that this is a place only plan.

Benny Hi Benny.
I think i know what your idea here is, too. I went down this road, without
any luck. My idea was that you chase a portion of your losses, it's called a 'split Martingale'. The place dividends are much more plentiful, but a lot more miserable. You don't get the win/loss fluctuations that you get with win betting, so that your losses, although small, just start mounting.
I also had this idea that, while only one horse can win a race, three horses can place, so that with a place betting system you will occasionally get lucky and have three collects in the one race. The problem I found with backing more than one horse in a race, win or place, is that you are backing your horses against each other, unless they are long priced horses, and we know longies are a waste of time. Back one horse per race.
Having said this, I still wish you luck, and get back to us with your findings.
all the best
Lin

[partypooper]

Benny, what I did was basically use the Pre-post market AS ratings which they are (in a way). Just by taking the pre-post fav you will place around 60% of the time and make a loss of about 9% on T/O. By taking the first 3 in the pre-post market you will COLLECT around 85% of the time, sometimes with one placing, sometimes with 2 (fairly often) and occasioanlly with 3. Personally I would not go any further than this because as Lin says there are 3 place divies so you can potentially collect on all 3. In terms of level stakes you will probably lose about 12-14% on T/O, though if you always invest at best tote odds (Sporstbet) this figure will probably improve.
By applying commonsense filters either to the types of races/days of the week etc, and/or filters to the selections themselves you will again improve this situation, personally I never got better than break even (over time).

Now, when I applied the same filters to Top Rated Horses from a "well known" ratings service, I turned a profit and have been doing so for over 2 years. I guess the difference here is the quality of the "ratings".

[Top Rank]

Hi Partypooper,

Could I ask what are the filters that you use. Understand if you don't want to say, but thought I would ask.

Good Punting

[geoffro]

Hi PP was wondering if you might want to enlighten me with the name of this "well known ratings service" that you are always talking about.
You could e-mail me if you want.I would be very interested in hearing from you.
My e-mail address is gcdennis at netcentral dot com dot au
cheers
Geoffro

[partypooper]

Top Rank,when it comes to filters, many people have many ideas, I think it is a personal thing really , you know, what works for you. But some I think are commonsense are:
Raced within 21 days, (OR 1st up if racing up to 1200m)
otherwise restrict betting to 1400m-1950m.

50% place s/r

Last run on METRO track (if racing on Metro track today)

Racing within 3.5kg's of set weight last run (ignore all allowances)
Raced within 3.5 L of winner last run.

No bet if ridden by 3kg. claimer, jumps, amatuer races, Ladies races, aopprentice races.

.......................................................................................................

Some others, will not bet on 2yo, though the distance cuts out a lot of these anyway.

Some will only bet if the horse ran within 100m of todays race last run.

Some will only bet if the horse has a win in its exposed form i.e. last 4 runs.

The then becomes endless, and its a matter of opinion.

But if you just want a quick fire method try, Top Rated, Pre-post Fav, last start winner.

[Benny]

With the top rater horse in the betting. You sy they have a strike of 27%. How many bets/winners were there.

Benny

[Top Rank]

PP

Thanks for the leg up. I do have my own filters for a method I use.

Placed in one of last two runs is probably the only one that differs from the ones you have mentioned. Sometimes I prefer that they were placed at there last run, horses unplaced at their last run have a poor strike rate. But I guess on the other side they may win at better odds. Appreciate the exchange of ideas, thanks.

Good Punting.

[partypooper]

Top Rank, re: last Run, I prefer distance from winner i.e. 6th beaten 2 lengths as against 2nd beaten 6 lengths (eg. only) This one came from a workout I read taken from 20,000 races , the winner had ran within 3.5 lenghs of the winner in its last run in 83% of cases. anyway as you say its a matter of personal choice really.

[Top Rank]

You are right, a placing beaten many lengths is often not a very high rating effort. I guess ideally you want the placegetter within your parameters for beaten margins.

Good Punting