horses and courses

[crusher]

I recently recieved a letter by mail from one Paul M Matthews of Woodville Place , Annerley, Qld regarding a horse racing manual and staking plan that he states has had considerable success for a number of years, which he is selling for $58. I was wondering if anyone out there has purchased this manual and if so, was it worth the paper it is written on or is it just another misleading and useless publication. I note that there is no contact phone number and only a P.O Box number is given which, immediately send the alarm bells ringing, I would appreciate any feedback on this.

[becareful]

Crusher, I haven't seen it (or even heard of it) but personally I wouldn't bother. If he is selling it then it probably doesn't work (not well enough to make money on anyway). If there is no phone number and only a PO box then it has "rip-off" written all over it!

Just my opinion :grin:

[Shaun]

I find that if you stick to the main facts like.....fitness...form.....class....strike rate....put all those things together with a rateing figure and you can make your own system that will work fine..

[Equine Investor]

It amazes me that anyone can expect to get paid for a system without providing past and future stats - I.E. Daily selections and results. Also if it's so good they wouldn't need to sell it, they would use it themselves.

[Shaun]

I agree...if i found a system that made money the last thing i would do is sell it......lol

[crusher]

Thanks for the replies which basically reinforced my belief that anything being sold as a winning system is most likely to be quite the opposite. Having said that, their must be some decent educational horseracing books out there for punters keen to put in a bit of effort to assessing form weights etc.. to enhance their abilty to pick winners. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

[thekey]

I have this book. It does provide proof of winning 44/52 Saturdays in 1994 (details of every bet) after claiming in an ad published prior to the year that it would win on 40 days, but you'd better have balls of steel to pull it off.

Also included is some general discussion on racing and info on lots of tracks.

I haven't run a check on it for any other time period however I do believe it will win ...... eventually.

Don't think it is worth $58.

[Placegetter]

On 2002-05-15 15:18, thekey wrote:
I haven't run a check on it for any other time period however I do believe it will win ...... eventually.

Don't think it is worth $58.


Did you run a check on the system yet? I can't believe you think it will win in the long term but it's not worth $58. If it will win in the long term it's worth it's weight in gold.
Placegetter

[Bhagwan]

Check out http://www.inracing.com.au

They have an array of punting books from only $10 & computer programs .

I`ve a few things from them & its good punting info which all punters should arm themselves with.

Plus a high percentage of profits goes to the Children`s Cancer Research Unit, so you will be helping a bunch of kids out less fortunate than us aswell.

[thekey]

The reason I say it's not worth the money is because anybody who has done grade 10 maths could figure this out. It is very simple.

The main reason I haven't followed up on it is that at one stage in the sample the bet required was 18% of the original bank. This is when your mind can start playing games on you and if you alter from the plan, your stuffed.

Like I said previously, it will work ... eventually, but how deep are your pockets?

If you like Speed Ratings - Andrew Beyer is the authority there.
He does point out though that his use of speed ratings have not been as successful on turf as dirt. Still, he has a few good books which can be ordered thru major book stores in Australia.

Also try Don Scott - Winning in the 90's. Haven't read it, but most readers recommend it highly. Its about $100 though and hard to get - out of print.

Other than that, keep Sunday's results each week as well as a good form guide from Friday/Sat and sit down and look at the winners. You see some patterns emerging after a while which will help you design your own winning system.

[thekey]

As requested by Placegetter I have begun to check this out.

The results for November 2001. Betting in Bris/Syd/Melb on Saturdays are as follows:

selesctions 78
winners 24
SR 30.8%
ave.divi $3.06
LOT (level stakes)-5.9%

However with the staking plan this becomes:
POT +12.1%

It won 3/4 days
Ave bet 0.6% starting bank
biggest bet 9.8% starting bank

comments welcome??

[becareful]

The biggest bet of 9.8% of starting bank would worry me A LOT! At that level you would go broke with 10 losing bets (or less if the bet size was still increasing) - that is certainly a strong possibility with a 30% strike rate.

Personally I would never use a system that gives a loss of -5.9% at level stakes - regardless of the staking plan you use it is almost certain that this is going to get you in the end. Could be this is why he is selling the system rather than using it - worked fine for quite a while then broke the bank?

[thekey]

Becareful, this is exactly why I never bothered with it in the first place.

I am however investigating a more suitable staking plan (something a bit less aggressive!)as well as applying a filter.

[Placegetter]

Now you're starting to make sense. Good on you for taking it to the next level, and good luck too!

Placegetter

[thekey]

Further investigation has proved fruitless. After 200 bets it looked good and was showing about 20% POT (8%LS) but now after 500 we have fallen in a big hole which I think will be very difficult to extricate ourselves from. There was a very good patch early in the piece but it has been quite dismal since and regressed somewhat to what I expected would happen in the first place.

Conclusion: You won't lose heaps doing this but you won't win either.

Have decided to stop wasting my time fiddling with the past and concentrate on the future.