View Full Version : Dear Bhagwan
Placegetter
14th May 2002, 05:50 PM
G'day Bhagwan,
I've noticed you've had a couple of different systems to bring to our attention recently and I wondered what happens to your betting in the scenario where two or more systems throw up the same selection. Does this automatically make it a double stake, or do you then look for the trifecta using the selection to rove or go for quinellas with it as the banker?
I'm a little curious as to the psychology involved. I personally can only run one system at a time (I'm mid-system at the moment, but the latest is by far the best so far). If I ran two systems and they both came up with the same runner it would be dangerous, I'd be mortgaging my mother.
Placegetter
PS. Anyone can reply, but Bhagwan was the obvious person to ask because of his/her plethora of systems.
Bhagwan
16th May 2002, 06:06 AM
Hi Placegetter;
From my personal observation of other systems,you will have a run of ins that pair up then a run of outs ,my feeling is just because its selected twice ,it does`nt mean it will win twice as much therefor put twice as much money on it.
Also try & only bet them if they are paying $3.30+ in the newspaper or TAB,one has to get some leverage .
I feel its best to treat it as a single bet .
Only your personal research would proove otherwise.
To maybe display a point using an example using the tippsters poll in say the Australian with 10 tipsters.
The top selection maybe nominated 5+ times ,you will find though they dont win 5 times more races than the other nominations.
Maybe this is not a fare example comparing this with your system but I think you get the broad analogy.
All I can suggest is do the stats. & maybe it may reveal something over the next 3 months but tread with caution.Because I`ve seen certain things go beautifully for 9 mnths. then fall into a hole for 3 mths. then they come good again.Sounds weird I know but you will avoiding a lot of short priced loosers if you look at that$3.30+ rule if your win betting & $3.00+ rule if place betting.
I hope this helps in some way.
becareful
16th May 2002, 09:04 AM
Bhagwan - Are you saying you do run multiple systems at once but only place a single bet if they both indicate the same runner? If so how do you decide what the bet amount would be (given you use progressive staking and one system may be on a 10-unit bet and the other one is only on a 2-unit bet)? If the bet wins which system do you allocate the winnings to?
Placegetter - Personally I only run a single system at a time for betting purposes (I sometimes monitor the performance of variations on that system or alternatives but I only bet 1 system). Maybe if I was using a simple system like EI's or Bhagwan's you could do more than one but with mine I just wouldn't have the time to get the bets on. Of course I sometimes have bets outside my system for fun - but that's a different issue. The other problem would be keeping the results of the systems seperate so you could work out the actual performance of each system.
Just my 2c worth :smile:
Reenster
16th May 2002, 09:34 AM
G'day Guys
Of all the punting maxims, one of the most important (to me anyway) is that you MUST apply a working bank to your punting. It helps me to stay absolutely rigid and disciplined.
I have a couple of selection methods to which I apply a separate bank.
I bet 0.5% of my bank per selection (extremely conservative but it means I can sustain long runs of outs).
It also means that if a selection coincides across my methods, then betting 0.5% from each bank means my bet is doubled (or tripled) for that selection.
I bet with confidence knowing that a)I'm betting under a strict plan and b)the strike rate tends to be higher for selections that do coincide.
Betting to a strict working bank is absolutely vital for record keeping and staying disciplined and focussed.
Bhagwan, are you saying you don't apply a working bank to your selection methods and if not, how do you know what your profit/loss is? Does it also lead you to swap and change methods more frequently? I'm not having a go because I admire the way you're not afraid to put yourself up for scrutiny but you do seem to have a new system each week.
Cheers
Bhagwan
16th May 2002, 12:13 PM
Thanks for the feed back guys.
I agree Reemster, one must have a serious bank.
One for each plan preferably .
Haveing a 0.5% betting sounds very sensible to me ,especially if one is laying out a fair volumn of bets each week,at level stakes.
I talk about different plans I`ve come across over the years because a number of punters like hearing about different angles others have tried or observed .I personally feel by sharing some of these ideas & plans that certain other people might be able to improve them further & possible share their findings .
I`m always in the market to hear what other punters findings are, we can all learn somthing from each other .
There`s no point keeping every thing about punting in our note book ,beceause you only end up with an educated notebook .
Anyway there`s a limit to the number of plans an individual feels comfortable with running at once anyway .
If there are 2 horses of value that I wish to bet on I`ll Dutch the bet on both.
You will find it takes a long time to find a plan one is 100% comfortable with before you start plouhging real money into it .
Start off conservative & if it kicks into gear, your bets can increase accordingly.
Most punters will throw a plan into a draw & close it after a short while so I personaly dont feel threatened that someone might make a pile of money out of a couple of ideas, good on them .
When it comes to betting larger amounts of money ,after your bank grows hopefully, you have got to be 100% focused if you are betting in larger amounts beceause anything can happen & usually does .
Dont cry in your beer every time you cop a few looosers in a row ,You`ve got to have a "what if plan"When dealing with an unfortunate run of outs. If its upsetting you ,STOP , until one of your selections gets up then start again, this is where the dicsipline comes into it .
Most punters cant stand the thought of one of their mules getting up & they didnt have a zac on it .
The other alternative while having a bad run is to halve your bets,if you must bet, until a winner gets up ,then start your serious bets again.
Yet another way of dealing with a loosing run,is only bet on the bigger priced selections your plan has selected (This my favorite).You will notice people only cry in their beer when a larger priced selection gets up & they were`nt on it. You can see them now belting their heads against the whaling wall "Oh me,Oh my, If only I...." or "I was gonna...."
"Bugger Bhagwan ,I shoul`nt have listened to him & I would have been on that horsey".
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