Interesting Stats

[Equine Investor]

Take note of the profit/loss column at level stakes.

http://www.saddlerat.com/puntmaster/Stats/Premierships2804.htm

[Placegetter]

Your intention is clear Equine Investor, but no one on the forum has ever seriously suggested backing every ride a jock has at level stakes have they?

With some form of method, a profitable jockey could be found, even on a level stakes basis.

[becareful]

Placegetter - I believe that is pretty much what Bhagwan did suggest - his suggestion was to back every jockey that had won a race on a given day at level stakes - didn't seem very logical to me but then apparantly I have a very negative attitude :grin:

EI - What concerns me with those stats is that unless I have misread the data none of your selected jockeys have a place strike rate of above 50% (eg. Munce only has 34%) but your data has 56%. Is there something I am missing?

[Equine Investor]

No becareful,the stats don't lie but that IS what I have achieved. There are other factors....such as maybe Munce had a woeful losing streak before he was included. They must be in form or they will be replaced or dropped completely. Say if a jockey had two sets of four outs in a row...they would be dropped and replaced. I am not very happy with Harvey's consistency at the moment the rest are fine. Will give him this weekend to redeem himself...if not he gets the boot!

[Equine Investor]

My intention was to supply some interesting stats. Although the win % may be low...working out the loss or profit from backing these jockeys level stakes, the average price seems to be $4.00 plus which might have been surprising to some.

Some food for thought....

If you backed each jockeys ride at greater than their average win price, i.e. $4.00 plus...and kept away from anything under this price. Would you have to win longterm???
Great for those who are statisticians on this forum.
Anyone remember the late great Geoff Murphy, he told me once that he wouldn't back any of his own horses if they were paying less than $4.00 as he would always win in the longrun given his strikerate and average dividend.
Mind you I heard him yell to his jockey once in the mounting yard....
"Remember Gary, there's a prize for 4th placing."
His horse was hot favourite at Caulfield, and I ran as fast as I could to cancel my sizeable bet!!!
He ran 6th and struggled to get that.
Thought some of you might be amused at that story.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-16 00:08 ]</font>

[becareful]

Hmm, interesting question EI - if I can get hold of the raw data I may run that through and see what the results are.

Out of interest how long have you been betting on each of your five jockeys (if you don't mind me asking)? Also if you were to give Munce the boot would you replace him with a different jockey or just wait and see if he comes good again? Finally how do you select your jockeys if you do need a new one - is it based on who is leading on those tables, a gut feeling, or do you run a simulation of your betting on other jockeys or is it a combination of these?