Calculation Required

[Zlotti]

Help required in understanding the effect a large wager has on the TAB price. I need a rough calculation prior to placing the wager. I realise that the size of the pool and the frequency of wagers prior to jump time will all have an effect but I just want to know what effect 'my bet' has on the pool and ultimately the dividend.

e.g. Win pool of $36,000 - $1,000 laid on at 4:1 - change in price ???
Win pool of $100,000 - $1,500 laid on at 5:1 - change in price ???

Is it even possible to calculate? I have tried unsuccessfully watching the win pool and prices but it is all happening too fast.

I would appreciate anyones input.

Regards

Zlotti

[Sportz]

Roughly, from my calculations, the first one would drop from $5 to $4.40, the second one from $6 to $5.50. But that's with no other bets being placed by anyone else in the meantime. Like you said, there are so many bets going on in the last minute or so, it's very hard to tell.

[Zlotti]

Thanks Sportz...

What was your calculation though?

Zlotti

[Sportz]

Well, this is what I did. It's probably not 100% accurate and there may be an easier way of working it out, but it will do for now. It might sound complicated but once you get the hang of it, it's not that tricky.

First you multiply the current pool of $36000 by 0.85 (what the TAB gives back) and you get $30600. Then divide that $30600 by the current dividend of $5. That gives you $6120. That's roughly how much has been bet on the horse so far.

Now you multiply the new pool of $37000 by 0.85 and you get $31450. Divide that by the new amount bet on the horse ($7120) and you get the new dividend after your bet. $4.41 or $4.40.

[Zlotti]

Sportz

I was following you right up to the point where you had the new pool of $37,000... Where did you get the $37,000 from? Have you rounded up?

Please see attached

Thanks Zlotti

[Sportz]

The current pool is $36000. Obviously if you put a $1000 bet on, it will then become $37000. Similarly, the amount bet on the horse will also increase by $1000 from $6120 to $7120.

Hope that helps.

[Zlotti]

Ooops, sorry mate..... I'm not always that stupid!

Thanks again for the info.

[Zlotti]

Just in case anyone requires it, attached is the worksheet with the answer to my question.

Thanks a lot Sportz... your blood's worth bottling!