Converting AFL/Union/League Ratings to Prices

[Sportz]

Okay, here's just something to help out people who might want to find a true value price for football teams depending on their ratings or selections. If you're like me and do 'ratings' and end up with team A beating team B by a certain number of points, you can simply look at the tables to find out what their true value price is. Even if you don't actually do ratings, but you just feel that one team will beat another by a certain margin, you'll be able to find out what price they should be. These figures may not be absolutely totally 100% spot on, but certainly close enough to give us an idea.

MARGINS TO PRICES:

R.League & R.Union

Rated
Margin - Team A - Team B
0........ - $2.00 - $2.00
1........ - $1.90 - $2.12
2........ - $1.80 - $2.25
3........ - $1.70 - $2.42
4........ - $1.60 - $2.65
5........ - $1.55 - $2.82
6........ - $1.50 - $3.00
7........ - $1.45 - $3.25
8........ - $1.40 - $3.50
9........ - $1.35 - $3.90
10...... - $1.30 - $4.30
11...... - $1.27 - $4.70
12...... - $1.25 - $5.00
13...... - $1.22 - $5.55
14...... - $1.20 - $6.00
15...... - $1.18 - $6.50
16...... - $1.16 - $7.25
17...... - $1.15 - $7.65
18...... - $1.14 - $8.15
19...... - $1.13 - $8.70
20...... - $1.12 - $9.30
21...... - $1.11 - $10.10
22...... - $1.10 - $11.00
23...... - $1.09 - $12.10
24...... - $1.08 - $13.50
25- 26 - $1.07 - $15.30
27- 28 - $1.06 - $17.60
29- 30 - $1.05 - $21.00
31- 32 - $1.04 - $26.00
33- 35 - $1.03 - $34.00
36- 39 - $1.02 - $51.00
40+.... - $1.01 - $101.00

AFL

Rated
Margin - Team A - Team B
0........ - $2.00 - $2.00
1........ - $1.95 - $2.05
2........ - $1.91 - $2.10
3........ - $1.87 - $2.15
4........ - $1.83 - $2.20
5........ - $1.80 - $2.25
6........ - $1.77 - $2.30
7........ - $1.73 - $2.37
8........ - $1.70 - $2.44
9........ - $1.67 - $2.50
10...... - $1.63 - $2.57
11...... - $1.60 - $2.65
12...... - $1.57 - $2.75
13...... - $1.55 - $2.82
14...... - $1.52 - $2.90
15...... - $1.50 - $3.00
16...... - $1.48 - $3.10
17...... - $1.46 - $3.20
18...... - $1.44 - $3.30
19...... - $1.42 - $3.40
20...... - $1.40 - $3.50
21...... - $1.38 - $3.65
22...... - $1.36 - $3.80
23...... - $1.34 - $3.95
24...... - $1.32 - $4.10
25...... - $1.30 - $4.30
26...... - $1.29 - $4.45
27...... - $1.28 - $4.57
28...... - $1.27 - $4.70
29...... - $1.26 - $4.85
30...... - $1.25 - $5.00
31...... - $1.24 - $5.17
32...... - $1.23 - $5.35
33...... - $1.22 - $5.55
34...... - $1.21 - $5.75
35...... - $1.20 - $6.00
36...... - $1.19 - $6.25
37...... - $1.18 - $6.55
38...... - $1.17 - $6.90
39...... - $1.16 - $7.25
40...... - $1.15 - $7.65
41- 42 - $1.14 - $8.15
43- 44 - $1.13 - $8.70
45- 47 - $1.12 - $9.30
48- 50 - $1.11 - $10.10
51- 53 - $1.10 - $11.00
54- 56 - $1.09 - $12.10
57- 59 - $1.08 - $13.50
60- 65 - $1.07 - $15.30
66- 71 - $1.06 - $17.60
72- 77 - $1.05 - $21.00
78- 83 - $1.04 - $26.00
84- 89 - $1.03 - $34.00
90- 99 - $1.02 - $51.00
100+.. - $1.01 - $101.00

Hope perhaps someone finds this helpful.

[mug punta]

I don't do ratings but IO think that will be a great help to me this year.Thanks Sportz

[Desi]

Cheers for the info Sportz...I dont have a database and so make subjective judgments on what I see and 'process' any info thru my little brain (hahaha)!

How do you start something like that? Do you use an established system database or do you use something like Excel or other software capability?

It must take a lot to set up esp. if you require stats from previous years of games and I guess the more factors that you input into your system the greater the possibility of success and accuracy (read profit).

I also notice that people like your learned self and Dr J are also specific regarding ROI and POI which I guess reflects the seriousness of your gambling investments (professional gambler?) but can I ask if your bets occur as the opportunities present themselves (ie via your database) or do you target specific sports events as potential profit makers?

Finally, what would be considered a reasonable return on an investment or does that depend on the amount you are willing to invest? Betting in the racing industry can present some value but picking the outcome between only 2 competing elements should be easier than say 7 horses racing each other...yet the returns can be reasonable in sports compared to backing a favourite nag (this is just a superficial observation to be honest)...

Hope Im not being nosie...for some reason your post tweaked a curiosity button...

Thanks anyway for your contribution thus far...I enjoy the forums and the informative (as well as entertaining) contributors...go you good thing!!!

[Sportz]

Desi,

Mr J is more the computer database professional gambler type person. He will be able to answer your gambling questions better than me. Personally, I'm a bit closer to what you do. I do ratings, but like you, a lot of it is simply based on my own subjective judgements with my 'little brain'. I do certainly take stats into account though.

Mr J bets on certain sports and he bets on a large number of games in those sports, based on the fact that he is hoping to win a certain % of those games and that will be enough to make the amount of profit he wants. He mainly uses line bets and he will try to get around 60% winners at around $1.95 and with as many bets as he has, that will be enough to make a good return.

I'm more a believer in betting only when I think there is an advantage to be made. I have a couple of 'systems' which I follow too. I also like betting on futures. I know that a lot of people don't like this form of betting, but I love it. For example, how good it was when the Superbowl came around this year and I'd already managed to back both teams at $7.50 and $8.50. :D

[Desi]

Thanks again for your help Sportz...

Can I ask how you assess ratings at the beginning of say the NRL season...what factors do you take into account in reaching your figures and how do the ratings impact on your betting? Futures, head to head or line?

I love having bets on sports but realise having read the depth of what other forum participants go to (and the kind of specific details/ stats they provide) that a lot of the times Im taking a big stab in the dark and I want to try and get a little more refined in the way I approach my sportsbets this year...

Sorry for all the questions Sportz...

[karla909]

Hi desi

Reading your posts with interest. Hope I am not intruding but I'll put in my 2 cents worth.

I handicap ATP tennis and MLB (will start a thread on that soon). I use Excel Spreadsheets as I am a bit of a whizz at them. The database functions are OK.

Both sports i have done since the early 90's. Lots and lots of bad starts and fustrating statistics. Much of the obvious statistics aren't much of a help. It is only when I started putting in situations that things started to come together. I bet only $2 or $5 on selections until 2003. I believe it is only when you put on money that you learn things. Otherwise you rationalize things away.

In 2003 and 2004 I started to make money. Most sports handicappers try to get 10% POT (profit on turnover). This is the holy grail. Then we settle for 5-8%. As Mr J and other posts have stated the worst thing you can do in sports gambling is to chase losses. Never never keep doubling. The best teams go on losing streaks. for instance the Los Angeles Dodgers- a overall winning team in baseball in 2003 - lost 7 games on the trot at less than 1-2 on (1.50 or less). Every year some team go sour.

Any selection method must make a level bet profit. Staggering bets to fit a profit pattern is the most common mistake new sports bettors make.

Select a sport you actually play or have played to handicap. You will then understand situations better. One thing I have found is individual players in a team sport of 10 or more rarely make a difference. The media loves to suggest that because a certain player is out, a team will go bad. More often then not the rest of the team lifts, the team adjusts its style or the replacement is some young guy who has been just waiting for his turn. ALso when you are looking up past history, the statistics do not include who was in and who was out.

Watch out for sports like NRL where the rules, teams and other things keep changing. Past stats of home team performance are useless in a sport like that.

It takes a lot of work and it is a grind. Nothing like coming home from a nite out at 3 am and then handicapping 15 baseball games.

Selective betting is better, remember the bookies are taking 5-10% out of the pot each bet. Selective sport betting reduces their take. The more you bet, the higher the porportion of winners you need.

Hope all that helps a bit. Might be easier just to suscribe to the guys here - lol.

Karla

[thebookie]

13% ROI is the industry average...

[Desi]

Hey Karla (and Bookie), thanks for the info...I used to play and follow union and league and love footie but never played and to top it off am a EPL fan (specifically Chelsea) so tend to spread myself a bit thin and yes, it means the profits get reduced considerably as a result...used to follow US basketball too...no wonder Im on a slide hahaha.

You've given me lots to think on...

Is it easy to start a database using Excel...only know a little bit about Ex...

I think I will start working on limiting bets, focussing on what I think I know more about...and looking at the type of bets (tend to do bet types fairly randomly) trying to find an edge is important...


Will get back to you guys after much contemplation (my head hurts!)

[Sportz]

Can I ask how you assess ratings at the beginning of say the NRL season...With great difficulty. :o

what factors do you take into account in reaching your figures For the start of the season, it is mostly subjectivity. I simply take last year's rating and add or subtract points depending on player movement and injuries etc. But it's only after about 3 rounds or so that I start getting some solid form to work with for this season.

how do the ratings impact on your betting? Futures, head to head or line?As far as futures betting goes, I come up with a set of ratings at the start of each season based on how I think the teams will go for the whole year and depending on the value or otherwise, I'll back teams to win or finish in the top 4 or top 8. Here are my ratings for this season.

36 Bulldogs
32 Syd Roosters
28 Penrith
26 Nth Qld
26 Melbourne
26 Brisbane
26 St Geo Ill
24 Parramatta
22 Newcastle
22 NZ Warriors
22 Sharks
20 Manly
16 Souths
16 Canberra
16 W. Tigers

Now, to that original set of ratings, I then make adjustments from week to week based on current form and injuries etc and these ratings are what I use to base my weekly bets on. Here are my ratings for Round 1.

34 Bulldogs
28 Syd Roosters
28 Penrith
26 Melbourne
26 Nth Qld
26 Brisbane
22 St Geo Ill
22 Parramatta
20 Newcastle
20 Sharks
20 NZ Warriors
20 Manly
16 Souths
16 Canberra
16 W. Tigers

I then add points for home ground advantage or head to head advantage and I'm left with a margin. Here's what I've come up with for this week and the value prices using that table I began this thread with:

Bulldogs by 14
Bulldogs ($1.20)
St George ($6.00)

Parramatta by 4
W.Tigers ($2.65)
Parramatta ($1.60)

S.Roosters by 12
S.Roosters ($1.25)
Souths ($5.00)

Penrith by 2
Sharks ($2.25)
Penrith ($1.80)

NZ Warriors by 6
NZ Warriors ($1.50)
Manly ($3.00)

Melbourne by 12
Melbourne ($1.25)
Newcastle ($5.00)

Brisbane by 2
Brisbane ($1.80)
Nth Qld ($2.25)

I then use these ratings to look for overlays or differences in my margin to the lines that the bookies have, but I don't go looking for a bet in every game. A couple a week is all I want. In many games, I can't get the value I'm looking for because the bookies have basically the same opinion as me. Ideally you want a situation where you have a certain team favourites, but the bookies have them underdogs or when you have a team losing by a narrow margin but the bookies give them a large start.

I love having bets on sports but realise having read the depth of what other forum participants go to (and the kind of specific details/ stats they provide) that a lot of the times Im taking a big stab in the dark and I want to try and get a little more refined in the way I approach my sportsbets this year...

Sorry for all the questions Sportz...That's okay. Although it may seem from all the gobbledeegook that I've gone on with in this post, that I'm some knowledgeable expert with all sorts of you beaut info, I can assure you that isn't really the case. It's pretty much just 90% my own silly opinion + 10% statistics. :)

And you watch all those predictions go right down the gurgler now, just to make me look like a total goose. :o

[Desi]

I want to thank you for sharing your ratings and methods with me Sportz as well as putting it out there for all to see...personally it has made me think more about what I have been doing and what I want to do in future...

Am going to spend the next day (NRL starts too soon) coming up with my ratings (with your ideas as a starting point) and try to get some stats plus what I think might tip the scales...results will be shown during tipping comp whether theres some merit to my ratings or not hahaha!

Putting money on what I think is value is another story!

Cheers all of you for helping and giving some great advice!

[Chuck]

thanks sportz, very helpful

[goldmember]

Desi, i had success the last couple of seasons rating each player on a team out of 10 in their position and adding them together, and backing the highest rated team and got some good results with a few outsiders getting up, havent done it on round 1 before because its the first game of the year,but i'll have a go

Bulldogs 123
Dragons 117

Eels 122
W/tigers 117

Panthers 126
Sharks 121

Roosters 129
Rabbits 114

Sea Eagles 122
Warriors 117

Storm 122
Knights 115

Cowboys 125
Broncos 123

That gives me a winning margin, but this round i think the buldogs game will be a blowout as will the storm game with all the knights missing, but the rabbits give the roosters a hard time for about 65 - 70 minutes so i think it will be a lot closer than i rated

[Sportz]

Well done Goldmember. Yeah, it's sure hard doing ratings for the first round isn't it?

Desi, this is a great place for stats:

http://stats.rleague.com/rl/rl_index.html
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/afl_index.html

[goldmember]

Sportz, it sure is, thats why i use to let 2 or 3 rounds go before i bet, but this time i think exotic bets could be better value until the teams they settle, the roosters are one of the fittest teams around but always stuggle in round 1, the sharks are very slow starters, 0/6 in 2003 and 1/5 in 2004

[karla909]

After my reply yesterday I had another thought.

In sports betting it is necessary to also analyse the opposition as well as your pick. I find that finding a good loser is just as important as finding a good winner. For example my favourite tennis player in 2003 was Andre Sa. You probably never heard of him. He was ordinary on grass and absolutely useless on everything else. Anyway he lost 12 straight times for me.

With respect to Excel vs Access, I am predjudiced towards Excel. But, I feel to start off Excel is easier cause you just have to type in and its easy to put in totals and to sort things in different sequences. Also you can convert to Access later.

Good luck
Karla

[unit]

I find that finding a good loser is just as important as finding a good winner. For example my favourite tennis player in 2003 was Andre Sa. You probably never heard of him. He was ordinary on grass and absolutely useless on everything else. Anyway he lost 12 straight times for me.


Good luck
Karla
For the same reasons, Michael Campbell has been my favourite golfer for the last 6 months. He was ordinary on grass also, which isnt good for a golfer.

[Mr J]

I went to lengths because gambling is what I do :D (sportsbetting & poker).

Sportz basically said how I approach it. Created a database in excel and use a formula to crunch the numbers and pump out the spreads. I will bet on the picks that don't seem like the 'sharp' side, simply because overall the picks have shown to be very profitable over a good sample.

And I don't aim for 60% at $1.95 sportz, 57.5% at $1.90 is what I'm hoping for (it's done better than this so far). I'd really be happy with 55% at $1.90 (enough to double the bankroll of an aggressive bettor).

It is pretty difficult to just create your own ratings/system. Look at things like home advantage, travel, form, injuries, motivation, matchups etc. You also have to consider things outside of the game itself like public opinion, who the money will come in on etc. All you have to do is be sharper than the bookies. To beat them you either need more info, or just be able to process the same info more effectively.

Look for things like an in form home dogs vs a popular public team.

Underdogs are generally a better bet than a fave.
Home dogs are usually the best bet (compared to away dogs, away faves and home faves).
Away faves are usually the worst option.

In NRL, underdogs have performed very well over the last few years.

In AFL, solid home faves and home dogs have performed well.

These aren't necessarily profitable trends, but this is the sort of stuff to look at.

[Searay]

Well done Goldmember. Yeah, it's sure hard doing ratings for the first round isn't it?

Desi, this is a great place for stats:

http://stats.rleague.com/rl/rl_index.html
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/afl_index.html
Shouldnt really be very hard to rate at all in the NRL. Very rarely do first grade footballers lose too much over an off season due to the intense training and 5-6 week break per year. Dont worry too much about stats, but concentrate on momentum, suspensions and home ground advantages for good results.Combinations in the halves is very important and look for the good frontrowers of sides for the power plays.

Good Luck.

[moeee]

And you watch all those predictions go right down the gurgler now, just to make me look like a total goose. :o

Don't listen to him Desi,he always says that!
He picks OK.

[Desi]

Good morning all...sorry just recuperating from a angiogram so have been out last couple of days...

Thanks for the support and great info and advice all of you...will add stats stuff to the rest of my list...

I made an early ladder prediction for NRL (what was I thinking...hahaha) which affected my poor picks for 1st round (even though early days) yikes got my ass kicked so am revisiting and will look at games initially on round to round basis...

Have had some success on NRL based on what I have observed and my knowledge of the game but have probably lost in the long run cos I have been looking to make money on hunches and not what was of value...in all my gambling exploits I would have to admit to poor discipline and bad bet selections...Seearay, you are right when you say dont try to bet to make up for previous losses cos this has been my downfall...I have no ambitions to be a professional gambler (aint got the wherewithal or balls) but want to be able to enhance my enjoyment of watching the sports and knowing that I backed a solid winner consistently...also thoroughly enjoy my discussions with you guys-informative, entertaining and supportive...

SO cheers to all and heres hoping that I achieve discipline, consistency and
some $$$$ for the coffers!!!

Desi