Tuesday March 15

[xptdriver]

Gday All

I have done Tuesday so I will post them now in case I decide to stay in Canberra or go to the races at Goulburn tomorrow..

I should be able to adjust these for scratchings on Tuesday..

Tuesday - 15 March

BUNBURY

RACE 1
3 $2.8 Joncandy
13 $4.5 Stunningly
5 $7.5 Not So Secret
8 $10.0 Elsie The Eagle

RACE 2
6 $3.9 Buckleup Buster
14 $4.5 Taane Maya
3 $5.0 Exhilarating
9 $8.0 Exasperation
12 $9.0 Sancta Sophia

RACE 3
3 $2.5 Old Grundy
2 $6.6 Lord Spice
7 $6.0 Old Warrior
1 $8.0 Revnay

RACE 4
6 $5.0 Midday Fare
1 $6.5 Ace In Flight
14 $6.5 Rose Croix
12 $9.0 Isn't She Just
10 $9.0 Black Bamboo

RACE 5
4 $4.1 Secret Revenue
7 $5.0 Super Women
1 $6.5 Hollywood
5 $8.0 Young Paddy

RACE 6
2 $3.5 Captain Woodrow
3 $3.5 City Of Ruins
1 $4.0 Nullagine
4 $6.0 Nevabawc

RACE 7
1 $3.3 All Keyed Up
5 $3.8 Intondre
10 $7.5 Twice
3 $8.0 Stage Doll

RACE 8 Custom Irrigation-Bunbury Stakes Set Weight Listed Race
3 $5.0 Who Did It
5 $8.5 Kame's Hope
14 $9.0 Mr. Callahan
8 $9.0 Rescuer

RACE 9
3 $3.7 Mica Star
11 $5.5 Karazee Lady
2 $6.0 Del's Echo
4 $6.5 Raclamone
10 $9.0 Corporate Dash

DONALD

RACE 1
12 $2.7 Gigi Rodriguez
5 $5.0 Dinglemuse
3 $8.0 Sky Vain
4 $11.0 Dark Disguise
7 $11.0 I'm All Class

RACE 2
8 $4.3 Real Grand
9 $4.8 Toydarriate
16 $6.5 Fangalang
7 $7.0 Jack By Jill

RACE 3
10 $2.5 Star Libby
5 $3.3 Once In A Lifetime
7 $6.5 Sinful Servant
6 $7.5 Puff The Magic

RACE 4
2 $2.3 Royal Ida
1 $5.0 Charleville
6 $6.0 Vivienne
5 $9.0 Haunted
4 $9.0 Chorus

RACE 5
2 $4.2 Buttout
10 $6.5 Baudolino
3 $6.5 Money Bandit
7 $7.0 Agra
12 $7.0 Numilla
1 $8.5 Mirranatwa

RACE 6
2 $1.8 Loup Homme
1 $6.5 Magic Lance
5 $8.0 White Collar Blue
3 $8.0 Buster Kay
4 $9.0 Shortspan

RACE 7
1 $2.8 True Courser
2 $3.1 Lanson
5 $7.0 Tilly's Wedding
6 $7.0 Greek Salad
3 $8.0 Saint Barbara

RACE 8
5 $2.3 Bellarine Glow
3 $3.8 Alscay
1 $6.0 Full Spinnaker
8 $11.0 Secretly Wild
2 $11.0 Jackability

PORT MACQUARIE

RACE 1
9 $3.1 Foxy Babe
4 $3.3 Rocky Gar Gar
6 $8.0 Young Beau
1 $9.0 Black All Over

RACE 2
2 $4.5 Natal Lad
7 $5.0 Easyline
3 $5.5 Blue Cougar
1 $5.5 Kentucky Image
6 $6.0 Resort To Rory
4 $7.5 Strategic Plan

RACE 3
3 $2.6 Seaway Prince
1 $3.0 Gahela Baby
5 $7.0 Nicholinis
6 $7.0 Lift Your Game

RACE 4
1 $3.8 Hudd
6 $4.5 Suave Lad
5 $6.0 Mr Smeg
13 $7.0 Temperamental Gal

RACE 5
1 $3.7 Home On The Grange
2 $4.5 Strategic Prince
9 $6.0 Patric
5 $6.5 Perugino Rose

RACE 6
1 $5.0 Affirmative Action
6 $5.5 Van Nistleroy
12 $7.0 Rea O' Dreams
7 $8.0 Corniche
5 $8.0 Christie Lee
11 $9.0 Mamzelle Eiffel

RACE 7
8 $5.5 Princess Boudiga
1 $5.5 Hipwell
2 $6.0 Kouneli
4 $6.5 Fine Cheval
7 $6.5 Touch The Plate
9 $8.0 Our Chum

RACE 8
4 $3.8 Pampera Bullet
2 $7.0 Minchinbury
5 $8.0 Civic Art
1 $9.0 Jenks
7 $9.0 Pharaoh's Fortune

TOWNSVILLE

RACE 1
1 $1.6 Kooyong Crown
2 $4.0 Mansfield Lad
7 $8.0 Rivermoon
3 $14.0 Placid Boy

RACE 2
7 $1.8 Ya Waheed
2 $5.5 O'mine
3 $5.5 Schooner Or Later
1 $6.0 Metallic

RACE 3
2 $1.8 Vitegic
1 $2.6 Don Sequalo
3 $14.0 Star Whistler
4 $14.0 Balloon Man

RACE 4
1 $3.2 Time Switch
3 $3.7 Troubeaut
8 $5.0 Swinging The Blues
9 $10.0 Akita Bay

RACE 5
3 $4.0 Howley Hall
4 $4.5 Power Of Now
5 $4.5 Obi Wan
10 $8.5 She's Victorious

RACE 6
2 $5.5 Surrey Gold
3 $6.0 Dear Jilly
5 $7.0 Perugine Star
4 $7.5 Orrong
7 $9.0 Miami Ice

RACE 7
8 $5.0 Premium Dry
2 $6.0 Raise 'n' Wyn
3 $6.0 Awesome Night
9 $8.0 Chief Bulli
1 $8.0 Stormy Blue

RACE 8
4 $3.4 Fluffies Reef
8 $5.0 Lord Ransom
7 $9.0 Lord Grange
5 $11.0 Nagomi

[xptdriver]

Gday All

back from the long drive... had to take the kid back to Uni in Canberra..

For today I have priced the races at under 100%... that means that the prices are higher than what can be expected on the TABS.. For win bettors with a bit of luck it will cut down on the number of unsuccessful bets.. anyway let's see how it goes.. If it's no good I will go back to the tried and true

Tuesday - 15 March

DONALD

RACE 1
12 $3.3 Gigi Rodriguez
5 $6.0 Dinglemuse
3 $10.0 Sky Vain
4 $12.0 Dark Disguise

RACE 2
8 $5.0 Real Grand
9 $5.5 Toydarriate
16 $7.0 Fangalang
7 $7.5 Jack By Jill

RACE 3
10 $3.5 Star Libby
5 $5.0 Once In A Lifetime
7 $10.0 Sinful Servant
6 $11.0 Puff The Magic

RACE 4
2 $3.3 Royal Ida
1 $6.5 Charleville
6 $8.0 Vivienne
5 $11.0 Haunted

RACE 5
2 $4.4 Buttout
10 $6.5 Baudolino
3 $6.5 Money Bandit
1 $9.0 Mirranatwa

RACE 6
2 $2.1 Loup Homme
1 $10.0 Magic Lance
5 $14.0 White Collar Blue
3 $18.0 Buster Kay
4 $18.0 Shortspan

RACE 7
1 $4.0 True Courser
2 $4.4 Lanson
5 $10.0 Tilly's Wedding
6 $10.0 Greek Salad

RACE 8
5 $2.6 Bellarine Glow
3 $4.3 Alscay
1 $6.5 Full Spinnaker
8 $12.0 Secretly Wild

PORT MACQUARIE

RACE 1
9 $4.1 Foxy Babe
4 $4.3 Rocky Gar Gar
6 $11.0 Young Beau
1 $11.0 Black All Over

RACE 2
2 $6.0 Natal Lad
7 $6.5 Easyline
3 $7.5 Blue Cougar
1 $8.0 Kentucky Image
6 $8.0 Resort To Rory

RACE 3
3 $3.6 Seaway Prince
1 $4.4 Gahela Baby
5 $10.0 Nicholinis
6 $10.0 Lift Your Game

RACE 4
1 $4.8 Hudd
6 $5.5 Suave Lad
5 $7.0 Mr Smeg
13 $8.5 Temperamental Gal

RACE 5
1 $4.6 Home On The Grange
2 $5.5 Strategic Prince
9 $7.5 Patric
5 $8.5 Perugino Rose

RACE 6
1 $5.5 Affirmative Action
6 $6.0 Van Nistleroy
12 $8.0 Rea O' Dreams
7 $9.0 Corniche
5 $9.5 Christie Lee

RACE 7
8 $4.5 Princess Boudiga
1 $5.5 Hipwell
2 $7.5 Kouneli
4 $10.0 Fine Cheval
7 $10.0 Touch The Plate

RACE 8
4 $4.3 Pampera Bullet
2 $7.0 Minchinbury
5 $8.5 Civic Art
1 $9.0 Jenks
7 $9.5 Pharaoh's Fortune

TOWNSVILLE

RACE 1
1 $2.4 Kooyong Crown
2 $6.0 Mansfield Lad
7 $11.0 Rivermoon
3 $21.0 Placid Boy

RACE 2
7 $4.6 Ya Waheed
2 $8.5 O'mine
3 $8.5 Schooner Or Later
1 $9.0 Metallic

RACE 3
2 $3.3 Vitegic
1 $4.5 Don Sequalo
3 $14.0 Star Whistler
4 $14.0 Balloon Man

RACE 4
1 $4.1 Time Switch
3 $4.8 Troubeaut
8 $6.0 Swinging The Blues
9 $11.0 Akita Bay

RACE 5
3 $5.0 Howley Hall
4 $5.5 Power Of Now
5 $5.5 Obi Wan
7 $12.0 Eagle Reign

RACE 6
2 $5.5 Surrey Gold
3 $6.0 Dear Jilly
4 $7.5 Orrong
7 $9.0 Miami Ice
1 $9.5 Vondale

RACE 7
8 $5.0 Premium Dry
2 $6.0 Raise 'n' Wyn
3 $6.0 Awesome Night
9 $8.0 Chief Bulli
1 $8.0 Stormy Blue

RACE 8
7 $5.0 Lord Grange
5 $6.5 Nagomi
2 $7.5 Star Revundo
3 $8.5 Bright Selection
14 $9.5 On The Fairway

[Sportz]

I wish we could get the WA scratchings earlier. Even allowing for the time difference, they still seem to be very slow over there. I'm waiting to find out the scratchings in the Bunbury Stakes.

[xptdriver]

BUNBURY

RACE 1
3 $3.8 Joncandy
13 $5.5 Stunningly
5 $9.0 Not So Secret
8 $12.0 Elsie The Eagle

RACE 2
6 $3.6 Buckleup Buster
14 $4.1 Taane Maya
12 $8.0 Sancta Sophia
4 $14.0 Makikit

RACE 3
2 $2.0 Lord Spice
1 $4.5 Revnay
4 $7.5 Black Shadow
6 $7.5 Lighting Luka

RACE 4
1 $5.5 Ace In Flight
14 $6.0 Rose Croix
12 $8.0 Isn't She Just
10 $8.0 Black Bamboo

RACE 5
4 $4.5 Secret Revenue
7 $6.0 Super Women
1 $7.5 Hollywood
5 $9.0 Young Paddy

RACE 6
2 $2.6 Captain Woodrow
4 $4.3 Nevabawc
9 $8.0 Wingers Call
7 $10.0 Golden Business

RACE 7
1 $4.0 All Keyed Up
5 $4.5 Intondre
10 $9.0 Twice
3 $9.5 Stage Doll

RACE 8 Custom Irrigation-Bunbury Stakes Set Weight Listed Race
3 $4.6 Who Did It
5 $7.5 Kame's Hope
14 $8.0 Mr. Callahan
8 $8.5 Rescuer
9 $8.5 Mercury Halo

RACE 9
3 $4.5 Mica Star
11 $6.5 Karazee Lady
2 $7.5 Del's Echo
4 $8.0 Raclamone

[Sportz]

Been going over my ratings and I think I may have found something to make them just a bit more accurate. Not sure. It's actually simpler and quicker too, so hopefully it is successful. Anyway, I'll list both methods today. Not a great deal of difference between the two today except in the rated prices. Let's see how they go.

OLD METHOD:

BUNBURY R8
3 WHO DID IT (72.0) $3.05
4 ON TARGET (69.0) $6.75
9 MERCURY HALO (68.5) $7.65
11 DEVIL'S DANCE (67.0) $10.90
8 RESCUER (66.5) $12.70
------------------------
10 Changing Lanes (65.0) $21.80
13 Lukaboom (65.0) $21.80
1 Finito (64.5) $25.40

DONALD R5
2 BUTTOUT (58.5) $3.60
3 MONEY BANDIT (58.0) $4.15
1 MIRRANATWA (56.5) $5.55
------------------------
6 Rose Royce (56.0) $6.30
10 Baudalino (52.0) $18.00
5 Saayeb (51.5) $21.20

NEW METHOD:

BUNBURY R8
3 WHO DID IT (72.0) $4.15
4 ON TARGET (70.5) $6.90
9 MERCURY HALO (70.5) $6.90
1 FINITO (69.0) $10.90
11 DEVIL'S DANCE (69.0) $10.90
-----------------------
8 Rescuer (68.0) $14.80
10 Changing Lanes (68.0) $14.80
13 Lukaboom (67.5) $17.30

DONALD R5
2 BUTTOUT (60.5) $3.30
3 MONEY BANDIT (60.0) $3.90
1 MIRRANATWA (59.0) $5.50
-----------------------
6 Rose Royce (58.0) $7.50
5 Saayeb (55.5) $16.50
10 Baudalino (53.0) $41.25

[maverick1993]

Qr
Quessidilla ...is my secial today ...
Seadog should win the last....

Just 2 races for me today..will work some tris and 1st4's with these 2 races ..

Good luck all :)

[Paddy]

Great inclusion Elsie The Eagle in race 1 at Bunbury xptdriver!
Paid $52.10 / $9.70 on NSW TAB!!

[xptdriver]

Great inclusion Elsie The Eagle in race 1 at Bunbury xptdriver!
Paid $52.10 / $9.70 on NSW TAB!!

Gday Paddy,

thanks... I couldnt believe the prices they were betting... things have turned in the last hour or so... followed Bunbury up with a nice winner at Townsville,plus a winner on my home track so maybe I should put the cue away..

I am not sure if I like the way I have priced the races today.. I might go back to the normal way I think, this way seems to cut out too many winners.. I am not sure of it as yet...

[Sportz]

Well, it was a nice trifecta on Donald R5. And it was pretty easy to get taking 1,2,3 / 1,2,3,5,6,10. :)

In this instance, the older rating method did a bit better picking it in the first 5 selections instead of the first 6.

[maverick1993]

Well done X..
Great pick with Howley Hall $13 win !! i didnt include it my treble and had the other 2 legs 20 times ,,and it paid $260 :( .. and yes i had Power of Now,,



and thanks for giving me the confidence to include Cheif Bulli in the 7th in my exotics..
Your ratings X have helped me to another tri and first4 ..

Your on fire :)

Hey Sportz couldn't beleive Don Sequalo odds..a proven open horse in good form against a promising type coming through the grades..
Premium Dry franked the form in the 7th but i was already commited to Quesadila...Nice tri though and 1st4 Chief Bulli with the blinkers had to be included ..wipeout in the last but a good day anyway..

[Betsy]

Hey lads,

I'm after some inside info from anyone in the know (X, Mav, Sportz whoever else can help)
How do you go about constructing ratings and prices for each race? What rules and principles do you apply? Is it a long tiring task or piece of cake once you get started? I have just been doing the form of the morning and backing my selections each way (unless not ew odds), and steering clear of exotics such as tri's. I would love if you guys took me under your wing and taught me all i need to know about framing markets, and producing ratings etc.

Thanks in advanced

Betsy

[Sportz]

Betsy,

I'll give you a nice simple basic example to start you off. Obviously, you can do things in a much more detailed way than this, but this is just to show you that you don't have to take a LONG time.

First, go to: http://www.tastab.com.au/racebet/form_guides/platinum/default.asp

I've found their ratings to be effective and simple to use. Click on each horse and it displays it's entire career and gives a rating for each run. That rating is in the form of a number like 645. To use them in our ratings, we need to slip a decimal point in there and make it 64.5 as in 64.5 kgs. Now simply take each horse's last race rating, then subtract the weight that they are going to carry over the minimum weight in today's race. You have to take apprentice claims into account when doing this, so if a horse is actually carrying LESS than the minimum weight, you'll have to add that amount to the rating, not subtract it. That's it. The total you're left with is the horse's rating for today's race. That is about as easy a rating method as you can get and you could do that in a couple of minutes. Here's Donald R5 today as an example:
1 63 - 4 = 59
2 60.5 - 1.5 = 59
3 50.5 - 2.5 = 48
4 45 - 1.5 = 43.5
5 35 - 0.5 = 34.5
6 53 - 0 = 53
8 46 - 0 = 46
9 45 - 0 = 45
10 54 - 0 = 54
11 31 - 0 = 31

So the top 4 rated horses in that race in order were:
1 59
2 59
10 54
6 53

The result was 1-10-6 and the trifecta was $286 up here, so that's one time when an EXTREMELY simple rating method worked beautifully. Don't expect it to be like that all the time. Most people go into much more detail than that with their ratings but sometimes simplicity works best.

[Sportz]

Well, it was a nice trifecta on Donald R5. And it was pretty easy to get taking 1,2,3 / 1,2,3,5,6,10.


By the way, you could have also got the first4 using that method too and it paid $3030 up here.

No, I wasn't smart enough to do that. :(

[maverick1993]

1st'4s can be very frustrating....poor strikerate but the divivdends more than make up for it...just have to be patient..i've been serious about them for 6 months or so and show a small profit .. even though i have collected on a couple of large payouts...

Some of the 1st4's you and X have been tipping lately would look nice in my betting account :)

[Sportz]

Well, that one today was so easy and paid so well, I'm kicking myself for not putting one on.

[Paddy]

Well, that one today was so easy and paid so well, I'm kicking myself for not putting one on.


Always tomorrow Sportz ;)

[Sportz]

Betsy,

Carrying on from my earlier post....

The thing about ratings is there is no right or wrong way to do it. If it works, then that's the important thing.

With the weight rating method that I showed you, the difficult part is finding the 'base' rating run that you use to work out the horse's rating in today's race. In the example I showed you, I just used the horses' last runs. That's by far the simplest method and it worked in the example I showed you, but there are many other ways of doing it. You could take the best rating from the horse's last 2 or 3 runs. Or an average of the best 2 ratings from the last 3 runs. Or the best rating recent run over this distance. Or the best rating the horse has achieved over this distance in the last 12 months. Or the best rating at this track and distance. There are any number of alternative runs that you could use as the 'base' rating.

Now, some people will then also add small bonuses and penalties to that base rating figure based on things like: Jockey, Barrier, Days since last start, Record at Track/Distance, Consistency etc etc. It's up to you if you want to do that or not. As I said before, whatever works is best. Anyway, once you have your base rating, then as I said in my earlier post, you simply subtract the weight the horse is going to carry over the minimum weight in today's race (remembering to take apprentice claims into account).

As far as pricing the runners go, I've actually gone into this a few times recently, but I'll mention it again if you wish. This is the method I use. I have a table which I use to convert each horse's rating to a score out of 100 based on how many kgs I have them behind the top rated horse. Here's the table I'm using:

Top rated horse = 100 points
0.5 kgs behind = 87 points
1.0 kgs behind = 75 points
1.5 kgs behind = 65 points
2.0 kgs behind = 57 points
2.5 kgs behind = 50 points
3.0 kgs behind = 45 points
3.5 kgs behind = 40 points
4.0 kgs behind = 36 points
4.5 kgs behind = 32 points
5.0 kgs behind = 28 points
5.5 kgs behind = 24 points
6.0 kgs behind = 20 points
6.5 kgs behind = 17 points
7.0 kgs behind = 14 points
7.5 kgs behind = 12 points
8.0 kgs behind = 10 points
8.5 kgs behind = 9 points
9.0 kgs behind = 8 points
9.5 kgs behind = 7 points
10+ kgs behind = 6 points
11+ kgs behind = 5 points
12+ kgs behind = 4 points
13+ kgs behind = 3 points
15+ kgs behind = 2 points
20+ kgs behind = 1 point

Now, using that example of Race 5 at Donald which I showed in my earlier post, here's what you'd do. First allot each horse points.

1 Rtg 59 = 0 kgs behind = 100 points
2 Rtg 59 = 0 kgs behind = 100 points
3 Rtg 48 = 11 kgs behind = 5 points
4 Rtg 43.5 = 15.5 kgs behind = 2 points
5 Rtg 34.5 = 24.5 kgs behind = 1 point
6 Rtg 53 = 6 kgs behind = 20 points
8 Rtg 46 = 13 kgs behind = 3 points
9 Rtg 45 = 14 kgs behind = 3 points
10 Rtg 54 = 5 kgs behind = 28 points
11 Rtg 31 = 28 kgs behind = 1 point

Now, you add up the points of all the runners and you get a total of 263. Next, divide 263 by each horse's score and do a bit of rounding up or down and you've got your price for each horse:

1 263/100 = $2.65
2 263/100 = $2.65
3 263/5 = $52.60
4 263/2 = $131.50
5 263/1 = $263.00
6 263/20 = $13.15
8 263/3 = $87.65
9 263/3 = $87.65
10 263/28 = $9.40
11 263/1 = $263.00

There you go. Hope all that helps in some small way. :o

[Betsy]

That's great mate, cheers - the main point i'll take out of that is that there is no set way of doing it and we can adapt it to suit our own judgement

I'm still at school at the moment so probably won't be doing this all the time but its handy to know for later on down the track

Once again thanks mate

Happy Punting

Betsy