What is "late mail "

[regular]

thanks

[Chuck]

tips put in by an 'expert' just before a race

[Sportz]

It depends. If you're watching Sky channel, I guess that's the case, but on the radio they give out the official 'late mail' for all races 30 minutes before the first race.

[Bhagwan]

You will findthe Late Mail on NSW TAB is different to the QLD TAB to theVic TAB.
They have their own different ways of doing it.

[regular]

thank you guys,

I bet on the internet, where can i get this late mail on the net?

[regular]

I don't watch races on tv
I bet on the internet

www.tabracing.com.au (http://www.tabracing.com.au)

[Sportz]

Go here:

http://www.tabonline.com.au/

Click on RACING, then click on the race you want. The Late mail is at the top of each race along with some of their tips.

[regular]

thank U Sportz
I have learnt a lot here


when is a good time to place a bet once you decided to do it?
I can place a bet through net by click a mouse, but what I mean is , better to wait to the last moment just in case the late mail says something new? or watch the odds update till the end then accordingly put the bet on? or put it early to get a better price ?

[regular]

Is late mail very useful ? is it an indication of something?

[Chuck]

if you put it in early it doesn't necassarily mean you get a better price, that is only if you get it fixed (odds stay the same). If you are going to bet, then you should have your mind fairly set on what you are going to do for whatever reason, and the late mail shouldn't really sway your decision (unless thats what you are completely dependant on!)

[Bhagwan]

I`m not sure if Mr.Regular is pulling our leg or not .

[Sportz]

In the latest Winform Newsletter, they say that they've analysed the Late Mail selections for the last 12 months. They found a consistent strike rate of 25% at country, provincial and metro meetings and a steady loss of 9%.

[Paddy]

I`m not sure if Mr.Regular is pulling our leg or not .


Why would you say that Bhagwan :)

[odericko]

im with bhagwan surprised your legs arnt sore...any1 who can open an internet betting account surely must know the basics regular you r a card??

[BJ]

"Late mail" is a pain in the rectum, especially if it is a tax cheque....

[darkydog2002]

Mug money in the main.

[Shaun]

You must be bored finding a post this old.

[darkydog2002]

Absolutely Shaun.
Remember the good old days when we all had sensible and informative things to say.

God I miss those days.

[Shaun]

Yeah when we all used to share our selection ideas.

[darkydog2002]

So true.

[Lord Greystoke]

The market is a bit more mature - sophisticated since back then eh, chaps?

Speed of dissemination of shared information, number of players - products - channels - size / number of pools we find ourselves treading water in etc etc. The battle to get a decent price = war on value is a hardened battled between the many foot soldiers and a small band of corporate mercenaries creating business-run 'killing machines' to take the rest of us out. The rest being the clever few in the know and/or nimble of foot?

My thoughts are to go 'back to basics' as Maggie's ex-treasurer - PM to be; 'laughing boy' Johny Major once said. Look where few still bother to look, make it based on common sense and hard evidence, strike when the iron is hot = the price is right and don't share your spoils or the toils to bag them, anywhere.. except with your closest pals.

That is the new battlefield for survival that we find ourselves in.

Lock n load, gentlemen.

Cheers LG

[darkydog2002]

Simple and still as easy to make a quid as it was 40 years ago.

Mind you it was a learning curve all the way through and still is.

There are consistent Form factors that just leap at you from every paper after so many years.

Its the intellectual stimulation I particularly like.

[darkydog2002]

The biggest mistake I learnt was thinking a Random Pattern of Racing over any period would reproduce itself in the future..
It cant and doesn,t.

Even back in the 60,s the successful Punters were telling us this very thing yet now the smarties are telling us the opposite..

I know which one I will go with.

Every race is totally different from the one before yet we think the same conditions apply.??????????

[Clive]

So how do you make a quid out of it, Darkydog?

[The Ocho]

The biggest mistake I learnt was thinking a Random Pattern of Racing over any period would reproduce itself in the future..
It cant and doesn,t.

Even back in the 60,s the successful Punters were telling us this very thing yet now the smarties are telling us the opposite..

I know which one I will go with.

Every race is totally different from the one before yet we think the same conditions apply.??????????
The "Random Pattern of Racing" still seems to throw up the same statistics over and over again for the favourites. While in the short term the favs stats fluctuate wildly, they still somehow revert back to the norm in the medium to long term.

[darkydog2002]

Hi Clive,

I normally bet selected favs to Gross 4 % of my bank each bet betting to prices.But I will bypass race unless I get a Minimum $3.00

i.e $20000 bank X 4 % = Gross $800.

The only time I would even consider restructuring the bank size bet is when the bank increases by 50 %.
i.e $30000 X 4% Gross.

This works particularly well for me both bet size and Psychologically.

Cheers
darky

[SpeedyBen]

I think it so much easier to make a quid now than it was in the old days. Best tote, top fluc, betting exchange were not available then. Gifts from bookies to bet with them were unheard off. Bookies odds available in your own home - no way.
Seriously, if you can't make a go of it now you would have been chewed up and spat out in the "good old days".

[UselessBettor]

Every race is totally different from the one before yet we think the same conditions apply.??????????
Depends on how you view a race.

All races contain a number of horses who have a chance of winning. In I use that definition of a race then every race is the same :)

[UselessBettor]

I think it so much easier to make a quid now than it was in the old days. Best tote, top fluc, betting exchange were not available then. Gifts from bookies to bet with them were unheard off. Bookies odds available in your own home - no way.
Seriously, if you can't make a go of it now you would have been chewed up and spat out in the "good old days".
Agreed. The problem is people are generally lazier now though. To get the info 30 years ago meant collecting it yourself. Now its all presented to them.

This means the competition is more sophisticated yet still lazy. If you can go the extra step its not impossible for a monkey to profit on the punt.

I can do it and if my wife is to be believed a monkey is actually smarter then me (Its taken years and I still can't learn to put my clothes in the basket).

[Lord Greystoke]

Evening UB.

That 5% POT target you mentioned (or thereabouts) really surprised me. I thought that with all your knowledge, systems, market sophistication, tools, bet/lay angles etc that you might be looking at a return somewhat bigger than that.

Shows you how much I know!

Cheers LG

[UselessBettor]

Evening UB.

That 5% POT target you mentioned (or thereabouts) really surprised me. I thought that with all your knowledge, systems, market sophistication, tools, bet/lay angles etc that you might be looking at a return somewhat bigger than that.

Shows you how much I know!

Cheers LG
well it comes down to what you want? I want more selections, higher turnover.

This results in consistency. For example if I have 10 bets a day and have a 50% strike rate there is going to be days of 5 winners, 3 winners, 7 winners, etc. Which results in huge swings on a daily basis. This could range from 0% - 100%.

But if I have 1000 selections in a day then I am more then likely going to get results in the range of 450-550 (45% - 55%) and this is what I am looking for. I will get days every so often of 350 - 400 and I will lose. Losing is part of gambling. But more selections in a day usually mean more consistency in daily returns.

To get more selections you have to give up POT. But a profit of 5% on 100 selections is the same as 1% on 500 selections. But I have far more confidence in the 500 selections then the 100 selections.

[Rinconpaul]

The minute you think you've got it figured, You're wrong?? he hee
Fuzzy logic at work

[woof43]

well it comes down to what you want? I want more selections, higher turnover.

This results in consistency. For example if I have 10 bets a day and have a 50% strike rate there is going to be days of 5 winners, 3 winners, 7 winners, etc. Which results in huge swings on a daily basis. This could range from 0% - 100%.

But if I have 1000 selections in a day then I am more then likely going to get results in the range of 450-550 (45% - 55%) and this is what I am looking for. I will get days every so often of 350 - 400 and I will lose. Losing is part of gambling. But more selections in a day usually mean more consistency in daily returns.

To get more selections you have to give up POT. But a profit of 5% on 100 selections is the same as 1% on 500 selections. But I have far more confidence in the 500 selections then the 100 selections.
to follow on-
Generally speaking if you look at long term results of even money chances, intuitively one thinks that they get closer and closer to "equipartition" as the number of events increase. Although it seems correct, it is wrong.

As the number of events increases, deviation from equipartition increases, while the deviation as a percentage of the number of trials decreases.

This "decreasing percentage" becomes very important in your quest for consistent $$$$'s profits

[Lord Greystoke]

to follow on-
Generally speaking if you look at long term results of even money chances, intuitively one thinks that they get closer and closer to "equipartition" as the number of events increase. Although it seems correct, it is wrong.

As the number of events increases, deviation from equipartition increases, while the deviation as a percentage of the number of trials decreases.

This "decreasing percentage" becomes very important in your quest for consistent $$$$'s profitsWe have missed your wisdom, woof43.

LG

[UselessBettor]

to follow on-
Generally speaking if you look at long term results of even money chances, intuitively one thinks that they get closer and closer to "equipartition" as the number of events increase. Although it seems correct, it is wrong.

As the number of events increases, deviation from equipartition increases, while the deviation as a percentage of the number of trials decreases.

This "decreasing percentage" becomes very important in your quest for consistent $$$$'s profits
woof,

Can you elaborate a bit more. I get the idea of equipartition but I don't understand your statement that the deviation from equiparition increases ?

I assume your saying as the more races we bet on the more different types of results we are going to get therefore increasing the distribution of prices around the average return. At the same time because of the distribution above and below this average return the actual deviation away from the average is going to get smaller and smaller as one result has less impact on the average return ?

Did I get this right or am I completely wrong.

[darkydog2002]

LG

5 % on Turnover is a massive amount since your turning over the bank X amount of times.

If your making that most years then your beating the majority of Australian punters.

This idea of 20 - 30 % POT was brought in by the con merchants flogging useless systems and the mugs thought it was a standard.

Be happy, very happy if your making 5 %.

[shifty]

This idea of 20 - 30 % POT was brought in by the con merchants flogging useless systems and the mugs thought it was a standard.


Bit hypocritical there dd, as you've brought many old systems on here with outlandish claims. At least be consistent.

[darkydog2002]

If you havent anything sensible to say Shifty wouldnt it be better to say nothing.

[bernie]

shifty does have a valid point darky

[demodocus]

woof,

Can you elaborate a bit more. I get the idea of equipartition but I don't understand your statement that the deviation from equiparition increases ?


Have a look at Chap 7 p41 et seq of Aczel's book "Chance" or Feller's book "An Introduction to Probability Theory and it's Applications". "Chance" is simpler to understand the other is a 'classic'. They examine the random walk results of 10,000 tosses of a fair coin.

[UselessBettor]

to follow on-
Generally speaking if you look at long term results of even money chances, intuitively one thinks that they get closer and closer to "equipartition" as the number of events increase. Although it seems correct, it is wrong.

As the number of events increases, deviation from equipartition increases, while the deviation as a percentage of the number of trials decreases.

This "decreasing percentage" becomes very important in your quest for consistent $$$$'s profits
For those interested I think this explains it fairly well.

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/content/item/9-equipartition

[beton]

5% is a very good return with volume. One must remember that to make that 5% you must first break even from a negative sum position. In the case of the tote, you have in fact made 23.5%. In the case of the bookie - greater. 12.3% on BF.

[darkydog2002]

Not with me he doesnt Bernie.

Anyone with a brain knows that some of the stuff Re systems I put up is a dig at the system sellers who troll these sites.

I wont put up anymore as some cant appreciate a bit of a giggle and I,m sick of getting TOUD

Cheers

[shifty]

So can you point out when you're not being truthful please dd?

[Clive]

Darky
Does this mean that if you are betting 5 days a week, you are making $4000?
I always thought you preferred to back multiple selections per race?

[Lord Greystoke]

Gentlemen.

You are all correct regards the significance of the 5% POT achievement on a consistent basis.. it's a bit bleeding obvious in the light of day! Feeble brain being what it is here and one too many late nights of late has somehow superimposed the concept of POT onto ROI(return on original bank or whatever term you use for it).

With 1-5% POT applied to decent volume, the accomplishment is material but a rare thing it would seem.

Apologies to you UB for any annoyance I have caused here. I will bow out now but point to a recent synopsis in passing as to how I think you play this game and your key point of difference in this respect...

1. you research like a scientist and
2. execute like a machine.


Good afternoon.

LG

[woof43]

I guess everyone should now have an understanding that the more events we invest the further we move from Equipartition, etc etc

This is why real statisticians compute the deviation from the mean.

If we tend to play even money propositions, the more we should become concerned with the deviation from equipartition.

As UB recounted the volatility of even money propositions on a daily basis.

Knowing from past results what our longest losing run will be, helps us to design the what length of betting series will be for these propositions. Published past results show that the typical longest losing run for this type of proposition will be 11.

Your betting series will now be 10 events, if you have past results break them into blocks of 10 events and record how many times you comeback to equipartition in each block of ten races.

Do this for as many races as you can. As the amount of times coming back to equipartition in a short term model is what then helps create your geometric progression model for this proposition.

Actually 12 parameters that helps us to invest short term in these propositions and to win long term.

[darkydog2002]

Hi Clive ,
I still multibet on suitable races but added betting suitable favs 1287 bets ago .after something I read in Paul D thread.
Both work equally as well.
Cheers

[Puntz]

Re:
For those interested I think this explains it fairly well.

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/c...9-equipartition


Play this game, and the amount of times a certain number appears is astounding in one extreme for one player, and can appear to be extremely the opposite for another player.

5 players, or an odd number of players makes this game interesting if you are into probability stuff.

http://zilch.playr.co.uk/rules.php

Statistics, very basic

http://zilch.playr.co.uk/strategy.php

How does this relate to horse racing ?

Well, it sort of does, I can't explain why or how, but it eerily does.

[beton]

Good old zilch.
I just got rid of all games off the computer, and you re-introduce one. I realised the amount of time that we can waste by switching our brains off. Surprising those that can't figure probability soon tire of the game. Which is why there is a portion of the community that says that you never win at gambling. And those that do win say that they are not gambling. Which leave the other group (thankfully) believe that they can win at gambling.

[Michal]

As the number of events increases, deviation from equipartition increases, while the deviation as a percentage of the number of trials decreases.

This "decreasing percentage" becomes very important in your quest for consistent $$$$'s profitsPossibly many have glazed over this rather important principle.

The more trials (bets) you have the more likely you will actually have the REAL performance point of your given method. Knowing what your real performance point is will enable you to trust your system/method to perform to that long term mark while riding out the deviation from such performance point.

The results of a system with a specific performance, as they appear one after the other is random, that is, the procession of results cannot be predicted. All that can be predicted is the over all performance (given you have a large enough sample to predict it accurately and don't change the method of application).

The volatility of individual (smaller group) of results is then the issue that most punters grapple with. To give example, long term our IR strike rate is 26.8% for the top pick based on 50,000+ races published and double that for our internal records, so something that I would consider to be a solid sample size. Yet, this strike rate has fluctuated on daily bases from 7% to 55%. On monthly bases this has recorded fluctuations from 24.5% to 29.7%. On Quarterly basis the fluctuation is less and yearly is less again.

Emotionally most people can handle the day when the strike rate reaches 55%, no problems there :) but as soon as we get a day like 7% the questions come out, whats wrong, whats broken, you shouldn't be having those horses on top, and those other horses should be ... and on it goes. To be honest, I am the first one to wonder! Yet, NOTHING is broken, what is happening is a random deviation which can and do last for days until a correction occurs.

I and those with understanding and confidence let these days/results wash over and move on, those that don't understand immediately start adjusting their methods, and moving their longterm performance point without even knowing what it is. Eventually this leads them to questioning every selection that looses and ends up in them giving up and moving on. Sadly, it is quite possible that many had the punting grail they still search for in their hands already and they threw it away.

I know the risks associated with my betting methods in terms of run of outs, bank draw-down both average and longest and volatility/performance in groups of bets samples because Axis has a module that performs these calculations and I wouldn't be without it; it has saved me thousands.

[Rinconpaul]

Nicely put Michal. Like you say, it's having a long term outlook with an iron clad confidence and discipline to match.

[Lord Greystoke]

Possibly many have glazed over this rather important principle.

Emotionally most people can handle the day when the strike rate reaches 55%, no problems there :) but as soon as we get a day like 7% the questions come out, whats wrong, whats broken, you shouldn't be having those horses on top, and those other horses should be ... and on it goes. To be honest, I am the first one to wonder! Yet, NOTHING is broken, what is happening is a random deviation which can and do last for days until a correction occurs.
Brilliant post Michal. Illuminating stuff on a Monday morning.

My thoughts are that if we can manage to separate the following tasks and execute them like a 'professional', we will be able to better manage and exploit the concepts of probability and randomness, with respect to this 'game'.

1. research / gathering evidence - like a scientist
2. selection amongst different options - like a business manager
3. execution of the strategy - like a machine

Given that most of us are not resourced up to manage all three simultaneously and/or at a consistently high standard, outsourcing some (all?) may be the answer. We are lucky enough today to witness the kind of technologies and relatively low price points that make this achievable.

If this is the case, perhaps all we would then need is some direction and clarity from time to time to keep the plates spinning in the right direction, the bank increasing etc. Better still, make the impact of 1 - 3 real-time, and put it in the palm of our hand to oversee. You may just have a 'game changer'.

A blue ocean of opportunity?


Cheers LG

[Michal]

1. research / gathering evidence - like a scientist
2. selection amongst different options - like a business manager
3. execution of the strategy - like a machine
A nice set of Racing Maxims there LG. :)

The true professionals do just that, I should note that to be a professional you just have to behave like one, you don't have to look forward to being one when your bank grows. Do small things in a great way; that way you'll mange to do great things in a great way without any problems.

[darkydog2002]

I probably misunderstand this but are you saying that unless one has 50,000 trials then no bet should be made.

My problem with that is that I,d be dead of old age before any bet could ever be made.

Cheers.

[Michal]

Hi Darky,

No, that is not what I was saying. My example of our top IR rating was to illustrate that having such a large sample, it is much easier accept the bad days as nothing other then deviation which is what they are.

Providing that a method is based on sound principal the sample can be far less; however more is always better. It all depends on the person as to what it takes to convince him/her that their method is solid long term; and in reality that is the only person that needs convincing; yourself

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Michal.

By the way - quite a nice price on Godfrey today.

[Michal]

Thanks

Aside from the tip, Godfrey was Top rated on R2W: Speed Rating, Consensus rating, PkD rating, RV rating and an Indicator with our IR rating having it 2nd pick. A lot of opinions pointing to same one horse are hard to ignore.

[woof43]

The results of a system with a specific performance, as they appear one after the other is random, that is, the procession of results cannot be predicted. All that can be predicted is the over all performance (given you have a large enough sample to predict it accurately and don't change the method of application).

Just reading the above statement, if you think about how ppl generally calculate their avg. payoff. Maybe that part of their wagering equation is flawed from the get go.

[Michal]

Just reading the above statement, if you think about how ppl generally calculate their avg. payoff. Maybe that part of their wagering equation is flawed from the get go. From the 'evidence' of the ratio of successful and unsucessful punters one could say that sadly most punters wagering is flawed in some way or another.

The more I learn about this game the more Im convinced that in the scheme of importance a successful system is a distant second important factor. The mental frame is first and of foremost importance. Everyone can loose with a flawed system, most punters however can't even win with a profitable one.

Firstly most punters don't have a profitable method in the first place as most are working of poorly researched and tested evidence.
Secondly even if the evidence was there they wouldn't believe it anyway and expect that it will fail at some stage. It must, can't possibly continue.
Thirdly most punters expectation is centered around unrealistic forecasts fostered by most of the industry and well meaning colleagues that don't disclose the full picture and generally only talk about the good times.

When the Third doesn't happen, (in good time), the Second point comes up and it is concluded that the First has happened and its time to move on. The interesting part of the exercise is that most will then employ the exact same methods to obtain the next best thing and expect different results.

What most punters don't realise is that their frame of mind is one of the most important of tools they have; if they subconsciously approach their betting with the disbelief of winning, how on earth would their conscious mind prove its brother wrong. Self sabotage is abundant as a result. Ever did something while punting that you knew you shouldn't (in the light of clear thinking) but you did it anyway? Chased losses? Ignored bets? Listened to others? So on and so on. As a result each time this is done your internal conflict is resolved on the side of your underlying belief and you are proven correct. Told you so ..... Finally the more they change and search the more out of control the above. The dizzy heights of success can be followed by depths of despair all in just a few days; until there is a point when they give up and take a break, most return with a clear mind later to begin the slide downwards again when their expectations are not meet. The interesting part of the exercise is that most will then employ the exact same methods to obtain the next best thing and expect different results.

Punters have to get their mind into a correct frame, the only way I know how to is to prove beyond reasonable doubt that their method works (on paper) and in real life without pressure of actually punting, and then approach their punt in a consistent manner regardless of short term results. That takes resolve that most don't have! That coupled with a realistic expectation and understanding and good approach to wagering will give you what you need. Sadly our success has nothing to do with the amount of work you put in if your tools or frame of mind are flawed.

There is a lot more to this then I can write here, but I hope that I have conveyed enough. It certainly is something that we try to assist our clients with.

[aussielongboat]

In answer the the original question re late mail - from 2005 or somewhere- my view is that at best it is just marketing gimmick to portray some kind of up to date, exclusive inside information but more likely used to throw punters off the scent and improve the price of another horse whilst depressing the price of the nominated horse and thus making it more attractive to lay.

[aussielongboat]

F
Punters have to get their mind into a correct frame, the only way I know how to is to prove beyond reasonable doubt that their method works (on paper) and in real life without pressure of actually punting, and then approach their punt in a consistent manner regardless of short term results. .

yes i so agree with that. i have lost or more correctly not won over $100k in the last 12 months by either
1. doing some "personal laying" i.e not betting a selected horse because even though everything i calculated indicated it would be a selection i have left it out because it came up a bit long in the market and/or
2. not getting organised and putting my bets on in time.

re #2 i had a D&M with myself and tried to work out why this was so and i concluded that it was because i had subconsciously concluded that a bet missed was a bet saved. so many times i have missed the first couple of daily selections only to see them romp in a good prices.

both 1&2 seemed to happen if i am punting bad around it.

so as the man said get you head in the right space - now i just punt on like a robot and ignore as much as i can the performance.

for example- I think i have lost or broke even everyday this week - so overall down and had a rough day yesterday. i then got the night time bets going - lo and behold - first bet at gowran park ( ireland) calls for a $480 bet - my unit size is 80 so that was a bit outside my comfort zone - but i remembered my wise counsel and closed my eyes and put it on. 2 hours later it wins at 8-1 and i am closer to being up for the week..

so off we go again.