Stick to the Better Class Races

[Benny]

Of the 9 races at Flemington the ones on which I'll bet are races 3,5,6,8.

I'm tying to cut down the unsuitable races in my top 3 in the poll system so that it makes a profit.

One idea is only bet on hcps between 1200m and 1600m.

This just on idea. Any thoughts.

Benny

[marcus25]

[QUOTE=Benny]Of the 9 races at Flemington the ones on which I'll bet are races 3,5,6,8.

I'm tying to cut down the unsuitable races in my top 3 in the poll system so that it makes a profit.

One idea is only bet on hcps between 1200m and 1600m.

This just on idea. Any thoughts.

Hi Benny!
I think picking the winner in better class races is a lot harder then in lower classes. The reason is obvious, apart from a few WFA races almost half the field is good enough to win!!!
I actually given up on Saturday races, done extremely well today on races the purist would call rubbish. But remember it costs the same $ a unit in these races and it's a lot easier to find a winner.
Just a thought.
Cheers

[davez]

amen to that marcus, i dare anyone to post their bets for melbourne today! (before the jump, that is :) )

[crash]

Any idiot can pick a winner [Maka yesterday ?], but only those who can wisely choose the right races to bet on and are able to ignore the rest, has any hope of making a long term profit.

[Sportz]

amen to that marcus, i dare anyone to post their bets for melbourne today! (before the jump, that is :) )

I'm sorry davez. I would have if I had seen this then. I know it's after the fact now, but I'll list my Melbourne bets just to show you my thoughts.

R1: Didn't bet. If I had, I would have had 2 & 3, but there were so many other good races yesterday, this one just didn't grab my attention. Probably should have as it was a 2000m welter, normally a race I would have liked. So I missed out on a good winner there.

R2: No bet. I was EXTREMELY keen on Was That You and when it was scratched, I decided to give the race a miss.

R3: Keen on this one. 2 units each on 5 Lyrical Bid and 9 Uprize. I've been following Lyrical Bid in it's last few wins and Uprize was a very good run last start. Also took quinellas and any2 bets with 5, 6, 8 & 9.

R4: VERY keen on this one. 6 units on Raid The Royals and 2 units on Strikeline. Raid The Royals is a very promising horse and like Lyrical Bid, he's been good to me lately. He was my best bet of the day. Also took quinellas & any2s with 4, 6, 9 & 10 and a trifecta 3,4,6 - 3,4,6,9,10,11. Good result.

R5: No bet. Didn't even really look at this one. When it comes to 2yo races, this seems like a consolation prize for horses not good enough to be in Sydney for the big stuff.

R6: Really came undone here. I had 2 units on Our Smoking Joe and 1 unit each on Modem and Barely A Moment. Also quinellas and any2s with 1, 9, 12 & 15 and a trifecta with 1,9,15 - 1,2,9,11,12,15. So a big fat zero on this race. GREY SONG???

R7: No bet here. An average sort of 3200m race with no real interest for me.

R8: Keen on this one. 3 units on Ballet Society and 1 unit on Astrodame. Surprised and delighted with the price of Ballet Society as I had it rated around $2.00. Also took quinella and any2s with 1, 2 & 6 and a trifecta with 1,2,6 - 1,2,3,5,6. Good result here.

R9: No bet here. An open sort of 3yo race which didn't really grab my attention.

So all in all, a good day for me. I bet in R3, 4, 6 & 8. I had 3 winning races and one shocker.

[davez]

as i said - BEFORE the jump!

[darkydog2002]

Some one else on another thread mentioned exactly the same thing in relation to running his commercial systems ONLY over races like GP /LISTED with much better results.
In the very short test I have done I would have to agree.

Another idea from a TOP rating man ( using the WIZARD ratings ) was to add the top 5 weight ratings and divide by 5 .Good betting races were those with figures of 90 or less.
Just a thought .
Cheers.
darky.

[brave chief]

Melbourne was my saviour yesterday :p

Benny, don't be scared to bet in restricted hcps, 3yo hcps and the like. Those can be good races for horses on the up. My entire ratings and selection method is built around trying to pinpoint potential improvers.

There certainly some merit in looking past races for fillies & mares, 2yo's, maidens, etc. Again thats only a generalisation.

[Top Rank]

Davez

Are you doubting the integrity of sportz. I think he has showed many times over that he is not one to post exaggeration or otherwise about his selections.

I for one only bet at metropolitan meetings, but I agree don't be afraid to bet wherever you feel you have an advantage, it costs all the same.

I found only 6 races in four metro meetings yesterday that were bets. One was the Uprize result, my only race for selection in Melbourne. I agree Melbourne was tough yesterday but they will be racing there again in a few days. I am patient I can wait.

Good punting

[Sportz]

Yeah, I posted those horses yesterday on the Tipping comp thread and Brave Chief's Ratings thread before the jump. Anyway, as opposed to you Top Rank, I actually had to try to cut down yesterday. I liked way too many races. Scratchings helped. That wiped out 3 that I really liked (Radetsky March, Was That You and Showdown Kid) but I still bet on 4 Melbourne races, 3 Brisbane races and 7 Sydney races!!! That's 14 in all and that's more than I would have liked. Normally like to concentrate on no more than about 10 or so on a Saturday.

[davez]

not doubting the integrity of anyone top rank, but as the post here was made post race i am entitled to be sceptical, as anyone would. as the selections were posted elsewhere pre race, hatz off sportz, nice job.