Ratings 19/3/05

[brave chief]

Just putting these up for kicks today:

SYDNEY

R1
Force Apollo $3.20
Damigos $4.00
Britt's Best $4.00
Mukareena $6.40
Turaga $32.00

R2
Havana Wind $1.40
Jeremiad $7.00
Hassle $7.00

Havana Wind rates as an improver and looks in a nice race.

R3
Renewable $2.30
Stella Grande $2.56
Western Beau $7.67
King Johnny $23.00 (backmarker, will need luck)

R4
Lotteria $1.70
Hollow Bullet $2.43

R5 (no point, can't back either)
Makybe Diva $1.90
Grand Armee $2.12

R6
Falkirk $2.40
Desert War $3.43
Copurts In Session $4.80
Regal Roller $12.00

R7 (slight change to my early market)
Domesday $3.60
Snitzel $4.50
Mnemosyne $6.00
Written Tycoon $6.00
Flying Pegasus $6.00

Already backed Domesday & Flying Pegasus at $26.00. Open race, had to lay one of the faves and plumped for Fashions Afield. Not the type of race i'd want to take less than $10 about something.

R8 (looks very open and full of queries)

R9
Irongail $2.30
Fourofakind $2.88
Gabfest $5.75
Sir Dex $23.00

========================================================

MELBOURNE

R1
Refute $2.80
Taureg $5.60
Comand n Conquer $5.60
Set Apart $7.00
Many Are Called $14.00
Action Shot $14.00

R2
Concinero $1.80
Sojustrememberthis $6.00
Marmotten $9.00
Paris Zero $9.00
Bexaar $18.00

Concinero rates a real improver. I took $8.00 about him last night before the scratching of Was That You, will take a fair deduction now.

R6
Barely a Moment $3.00
Under Command $5.00
Our Smoking Joe $6.00
Delzao $7.50
Skewiff $7.50

Taking on Modem here. In particular, Barely a Moment looks to be building up to a peak performance here. Won't get beaten if he can rate his projected peak of 69kg.

R7
Pantani $3.40
Charted $3.78
Bondy $4.86
Elwood $6.80
Eddy and D Postman $11.33

I'm taking Robbie Laing on trust here. Pantani has 2 G1 wins to his name in SA and won this race last year.

R8
Kylikwong $3.00
Ballet Society $3.75
Mango Daiquiri $4.29
Astrodame $10.00
Hairpin $15.00

Have a feeling this race will lack any value. Taking on Truly Wicked here. Rated 64.5kg first up and hasn't been able to reach it again in 4 runs since. Thats a query.

==========================================================

ADELAIDE

R4
Leamanach $2.20
Exalted Madam $4.40
Keytocache $7.33
Tayasu Spirit $11.00
Miss Rogers $22.00
Madam King $22.00

Leamanach is another possible improver, will never find an easier race to win. Uxorial's runs this time in have been pathetic. Keytocache has also been well below his previous best.

==========================================================

PERTH (did these expecting a wet Sydney)

R1
Annanon's Gift $3.40
Ser Grill $3.78
Spirit Lady $4.86
Entrepenaurial $8.50
Sun Konyah $17.00
The Quatermaster $17.00

R2
The Black Cigar $3.10
Key's Ace $5.17
Ubarup $6.20
Hero's Welcome $7.75
Nullagine $15.50
Zabadak $15.50

R3
Run Ronnie Run $3.30
Miss Dansk $4.13
Last Reply $5.50
Lust For Dust $8.25
Royal Drive $16.50
Belle Bizzare $33.00
Buttonhole $33.00
Grand Chienne $33.00

R4
Denmarket $3.30
Belarus $4.71
Hantu $5.50
Yaya Lad $5.50
Townsman $11.00

R6 ( a lottery!)
Classic Chevron $5.00
Tantra Dancer $5.00
Rose of Thunder $5.56
Anywhere There $7.14
Bonnie Brae $7.14
Robyn's Jewel $16.67
Star Tudor $25.00
Tears of Surprise $25.00

R7
Star Laser $2.80
Laetare $5.60
Stir Pak $5.60
Rose of Thunder $7.00
Bonnie Brae $9.33
Irish Pride $28.00

R8
Professional Lady $1.30
San Koo $4.33

If Professional Lady can rate anywhere near her projected peak here, she wins easy. Form looked very consistent last prep.


BEST BETS

Syd: Havana Wind
Mlb: Concinero
Adl: Leamanach
Per: Professional Lady

[brave chief]

Ike's Dream $3.60
In a Bound $5.14
Shania Dane $5.14
Johan's Toy $9.00
Infinite Grace $12.00 (last chance!)
Danni Martine $18.00
Hec of a Party $18.00
Natural Woman $36.00

no real value on offer here.

[Sportz]

Brave Chief,

I hope you don't mind me crashing your thread to post some ratings too. :)

Actually, I'm not sure about some of these today. Some of the prices seem a bit out of whack. The ratings and prices in Rosehill R8 have been a bit skewed by the scratching of Allinghi. I certainly don't think Ike's Dream is a $1.55 chance. Also a bit worried about Rosehill R9. No Nips or River To The Sea.

ROSEHILL R2
6 HAVANA WIND (70.5) $3.15
9 SQUARE ONE (68.5) $5.50
4 DANIEL'S THE MAN (67.5) $7.00
8 HASSLE (67.5) $7.00
3 JEREMIAD (65.5) $11.25

ROSEHILL R4
2 LOTTERIA (76.0) $1.85
1 HOLLOW BULLET (72.0) $5.15
4 JUSTA TAD (69.0) $13.20
3 DIZELLE (66.0) $30.85
5 NEVIS (65.5) $30.85

ROSEHILL R5
1 GRAND ARMEE (79.0) $2.30
8 MAKYBE DIVA (78.5) $2.60
9 VOUVRAY (70.5) $25.60
10 OUTBACK PRINCE (65.0) $76.70
11 CHEVAL DE TROY (63.5) $115.00

ROSEHILL R6
4 COURT'S IN SESSION (80.0) $2.45
2 DESERT WAR (76.5) $6.10
3 FALKIRK (76.0) $6.80
1 REGAL ROLLER (75.5) $8.75
10 SHINZIG (71.5) $27.20

ROSEHILL R7
10 FASHIONS AFIELD (69.0) $4.60
1 SNITZEL (68.5) $5.30
2 WRITTEN TYCOON (65.5) $11.50
4 STRATUM (65.5) $11.50
12 MNEMOSYNE (65.5) $11.50
-------------------
13 Opportunity (65.0) $12.80
3 Domesday (64.0) $16.40
11 Media (64.0) $16.40


ROSEHILL R8
2 IKE'S DREAM (75.5) $1.55
1 DANNI MARTINE (68.0) $12.90
16 JOHAN'S TOY (67.0) $17.20
5 IN A BOUND (65.5) $25.83
15 SHANIA DANE (60.0) $77.50
-------------------
7 Natural Woman (59.5) $77.50
4 Forum Floozie (58.5) $77.50
3 Hec Of A Party (57.5) $77.50

ROSEHILL R9
8 FOUROFAKIND (71.5) $2.60
1 OSCA WARRIOR (68.0) $6.50
4 SIR DEX (67.0) $8.10
6 GABFEST (67.0) $8.10
7 IRONGAIL (65.5) $13.00

FLEMINGTON R6
15 BARELY A MOMENT (72.0) $2.50
9 OUR SMOKING JOE (70.0) $4.40
12 SKEWIFF (66.0) $12.50
1 MODEM (64.5) $20.80
16 UNDER COMMAND (63.5) $27.75
-------------------
13 Chatelaine (62.0) $41.65
11 Pretorius (61.0) $50.00
3 Zvezda (60.5) $50.00

FLEMINGTON R8
1 BALLET SOCIETY (72.0) $2.00
6 ASTRODAME (69.0) 44.45
3 TRULY WICKED (65.5) $11.75
2 KYLIKWONG (64.5) $16.65
5 MANGO DAIQUIRI (64.5) $16.65

DOOMBEN R6
2 GENERAL SAM (61.0) $2.90
5 HISSY FIT (61.0) $2.90
1 DEAD CAT BOUNCE (56.5) $9.05
4 PROSECUTION (54.0) $20.70
12 AEROSOL (51.5) $41.40

DOOMBEN R7
6 SIR DAN (70.5) $2.70
9 POWER HUNT (67.5) $6.00
3 TELLEM (67.5) $6.00
4 WESTERN BRACE (66.5) $7.50
10 DIFFICULT (62.5) $27.00

[Sportz]

The ratings and prices in Rosehill R8 have been a bit skewed by the scratching of Allinghi. I certainly don't think Ike's Dream is a $1.55 chance.

Then again, perhaps you shouldn't argue with the ratings. :D

[brave chief]

No worries at all Sportz. I had a small win, hope you managed to do the same.

SYDNEY

Winners:
Britt's Best $7.00
Jeremiad $7.00
Stella Grande $6.50
Hollow Bullet $5.00
Makybe Diva $2.20

Outlay: $633
Return: $848

Note: no bets in race 8, as i said is it was quite open; Ike's Dream never got to a value price and i never wanted to bet against her.

MELBOURNE

Winners:
Concinero $5.00
Pantani $9.00
Ballet Society $5.00

Outlay: $370
Return: $676

ADELAIDE

Outlay: $50
Return: $0

PERTH

Winners:
Ser Grill $5.00
Key's Ace $8.00
Hantu $7.00

Outlay: $459
Return: $408

Total Outlay: $1512
Total Return: $1932

BEST BETS

Winners:
Concinero

Outlay: $400
Return: $500


If only Professional Lady was able to win the last at Belmont; assessed at $1.30, took odds of $4.50. I had $77 on it for the dutch book, and $100 on it for the best bets bank. It managed to beat the 3rd horse home by 3 1/4 lengths but couldn't get to the leader :( Would have been a great result to end the day.

Still I managed to end up over $500 in front and i was betting all day from 11.40 am to 8.20 pm lol

[xptdriver]

(snipped) Still I managed to end up over $500 in front and i was betting all day from 11.40 am to 8.20 pm lol

Gday brave chief ..

thats a long day... but i gotta agree with ya (about betting all day) when perth is racing it can be a ver long day, but i reckon the rewards are worth it.... if ya don't have an oar in the water you aint gunna go forward...

[brave chief]

it was too long for me XPT, think i'll stick to the eastern states now :p

[TheAvenger]

Thanks, Brave, Sportz. I managed to break even yesterday, which is tough for me on Saturdays. Handicapping the city tracks can be tricky.

Regards,

Glenn