3rd + 4th FAVS

[kenchar]

Crash,
Quite a while ago we had some friendly? banter in relation to my betting method.
I am STILL place betting the 3rd + 4th fav, and have gone much better since I stopped using form to decide which one, I only rely on my interpretation of the odds movements.
I know you don't believe anyone can succeed at this game unless they are a form student but you are so wrong.
I NEVER stop keep searching for something better, but every time I involve form it falls in a hole.
I am currently following a method which is based on what I do now but with a different approach to seperate the two nags but has absolutely NOTHING to do with form.
To date it is showing a 65% strike rate (place) min div $2 to so far $6.7 which was today ( no money outlaid ).
There is a hell of a lot of divis between $2.5 and $3.5.
NOT ONE BIT OF FORM COMES INTO IT.
I don't know what my bet is until about 5mins before the race, and then I search for best odds.

Cheers

[Leftfield]

Kenchar,

You are so right. Form and weight and ratings have little significance. I discovered that a couple of years ago and haven't looked back since.

Leftfield

[lomaca]

[QUOTE=kenchar]Crash,
I only rely on my interpretation of the odds movements.
I know you don't believe anyone can succeed at this game unless they are a form student but you are so wrong.

Hi Kenchar!
I agree with you totally, the rating is done for us by a great number of people and they are seldom wrong.
Unfortunately, due to work commitments I have do my ratings the night before and put in my bets before I can see the prices on offer.
If I could watch the fluctuations and betting my selections accordingly I would do a great deal better, but there is a mortgage, wife etc.
Happy for you that you can be there and bet accordingly to your rules.
Cheers.

[kenchar]

Iomaca,
In a way I envy you as there is no way I could put my bets on at the start of the day, as I work race to race, and believe me somedays is very tedious and I finish up with square eyes, but on a lot of other days as per today 1 bet and finished, Cranbourne R1 no2, got $2.25 fixed odds.
My method at the moment is very good with only one bad? month in the last 12(last month) but still made a profit for the month.
This new idea is looking great and I am feeling very confident with it as it is basically the same as what I am doing except the way to seperate the 3rd from the 4th fav and is clearcut, so I don't have to work the eyes and brain so much to get my selection.
Many races no bet but the strike rate very good.
I understand your position in relation to family, mortgage, etc and I think that is the problem with a lot of people who are very good at the punt, and that is to bite the bullet and have a go.
I am in the same position as far as family and mortgage, but lucky in that I closed a business and had good equity in it, put x amount aside to punt and made up my mind if x went I would look to something else.
While I still had the business I paid a lot of money for various systems etc etc, none of them worked.
I am a firm believer that one cannot work for a boss or oneself and be successful on the punt.
Maybe I'm wrong but I know I have to put my whole being into what I do.

All the very best

[crash]

Hi Kenchar,

I do believe in form study or at least a good understanding of it by any punter trying to make good, but I have come around [recently] to thinking yes, there is more than one way to skin a cat. For newer players though, form study leads to an 'understanding' of form, class, times, weight and many other things and how everything interacts. Kicking the tyres of our car when it won't start because we have no understanding of mechanics, will never lead to a happy driving experience.

My comment re. 3rd favorite was a mis-reading of the thread and thinking that only the 2nd. and 4th. favorites where being considered [whats wrong with the 3rd. fav. ?].

[dingoboy]

Hi Kenchar.

Im always looking around at differant options.

Ill tell a little story about not reading form and being able to win, and this (working for myself and being too busy to read form) is how i punt, i havent lost much for a while, ....could be luck.

Sat 19th, snuck out with neighbours for 15 minutes (ended up two hours) to pick up something electrical from a freinds place, on the way back they noticed a nice quaint old english pub, lets have a couple and have a look at it.
So we did.

Ill keep it short, but not being one to resist a punt when you see odds of fav over threes, 2nd, 3rd, 4th all over 5s, well i had a go on the last three and one came in, this went on for the next hour, no form reading, just two beers and showing the neighbours staking and reading the odds, they won over 30 units (they never bet before) and i walked out of the newly found local 168 units up for two hours easy relaxing work. Two losses from seven races and a little bit of staking, misses still wasnt happy cause i was late !.

Also knocked off early friday to have a couple with a mate that i hardly ever see, same thing, 83 units up in three bets, stopped and we both had beers on the TAB (not usually what i do, alchol and punt =mistakes and carelessness).

Im no punt guru, but what you say Kenchar is i think pretty much on the mark, i see so many so called race experts, on s.k.y, papers all that media who say this will be the one to beat, no way its going to get beat, two horse race, no i say, old lady luck and mr murphy are out there to look after us punters who either cant understand all the spects of form or who may not have the time.

Good luck

Dingoboy.

[crash]

The gist of this tread seems to be: OK, who needs any understanding of form anyway ?

Just find an nice pub on a Sat. arvo, pull up a stool, get stuck into the piss, select numbers from the tote screen to bet on and lady luck will turn us all into winners [?].

... and my house is the one with the 3 little pigs flying in circles overhead :-)

[Dalray]

Kenchar,
Are you saying, 3rd & 4th Fav. for the Win Market or the Place Market ?. Also Morning Pre-Post or 5 minutes to go ?

I am starting to move outside the circle, am sick of doing form and having to pin prick the one from top 4 ratings.

Ray.

[topsy99]

i recall a system 25 years ago that was based ont he 3rd/4th favorites.

the key was to bet them until you got in front and then leave the course.
then start again next week or whatever.

ppm or someone like that decided to try it continually and it failed.

at some point the winner will turn up but grab the money and go home.
each day was a new project and only until a profit was reached.

[kenchar]

Dalray,
3rd or 4th on the win market.
About five to go .
Back for the place, if $2 or better at the jump,
BUT the biggest problem is which one and that is the stumbling block, thats why I try to work from the odds, and I use 4 sites 2 books and 2 tabs to try and sus it out, if nothing clicks to me I leave the race.
I get my position in the market from the bookie sites but you can work from tab screens, but whatever method you use stick to the same don't change, and it is preferable if your selection is going out in price.
I'm sorry I can't be more specific it's just a matter of watching for a while to see if you can sus em out.

Topsy,
There are not many days that you can't back the 3rd and 4th fav on any given day and not come out in front AS LONG AS YOU STOP, as you say when ahead.
This new idea I'm working on to get a definate selection is still going ok and only 2 days ago in private correspondence with a forumite I made the statement that this is going so well I am going to throw the brake light away and keep going.
GUESS WHAT today out with wages very early and if kept going a losing day.
I hope this new idea holds up as it makes my job a lot easier but I can't ever see me changing my hit and run tactic.

Crash,
I just looked outside and couldn't see any pigs, but there was these bloody pink elephants flying around.

Cheers to all

[kenchar]

Crash,
I know you are going to get sick of me.

1 bet today Ballarat R1 no4 got $2.5 fixed odds, then shut down for the day and went out shopping with my wife.

Came home had dinner watched the news got bored fired up the computer went to tabonline (where I find the easiest place to check results for the day)
and noted pinjarra R6 to jump in 3 mins logged in to bookie sites and tabs found a selection(that took about 10 seconds) and had a small fun bet.
No4 paid $ 3.7 nswtab.
What I'm saying is don't dismiss working from odds, as either I am the arsiest
punter in this country or there is something in what I do.
I can give you an odds system that turned a $10,000 bank into $500,000 in 1 year with a maximum bet of $500 per nag flat stakes no martingale.
Many losing days, a few losing weeks but no losing months.
Like most systems it has a bugbear which is you have to look at every race every day which is virtually impossible.
You cannot afford to miss one meeting as that might be the one where you get the good results, BUT it based on odds and odds only.
How many form students can get those results.
Please don't think I'm being a smartie as I'm not.
I enjoy this forum but honestly I see all the posts in regards to form, excel,
this professors mathematical theories, staking plans etc, etc, and I truly realise why not many make it.
It really isn't that hard.

Cheers

[partypooper]

Kenchar, no pink Elephants but a few spiders climing up the wall!!
I appreciate your kind of gut feeling type betting, at the same time I appreciate the handicap techniques used by Crash.
I managed to live on my wits like that in England, basing everything on the premise that the game was rotton to the core, so I just learned to spot the fiddle and I did good. I've never been able to duplicate it here in OZ but still love the punt. When betting by instinct here just tended to follow a particular horse/trainer/ jockey, mainly PHarvey! , Beadman, Byrne, ARobinson and a few others.

[kenchar]

PP,
MABUHAY,
HINDI KO KAGUSTUHAN NA MAY MAKABANGGA SA KAHIT SINUMAN SA FORUM.
PERO SA TOTOO LANG, SA LOOB NG MAHABANG PANAHON ITO AY NANGYAYARI.
KUNG GUSTO MONG MALAMAN ANG AKING GINAGOWA AY IPAALAM MO LANG.

CHEERS

[partypooper]

Kenchar, oo sige' dili kasabot ko Tagalog, pero kasabot ko, unsa imong suway ko pag sulti, daghang salamat!! palihog sulti ka kumusta sa imong asawa!!

[kenchar]

PP,
We will have to stop meeting like this, sorry bout that as I thought you understood Tagalog.
What thread did you put your email on, as I'll get it and get an email off to you.
What I basically said was that I am not trying to knock or have a go at anyone on the forum, as I know we all have our different ways, but most of the things I read here have been going around for 100 years and not many can crack it.

Cheers

[partypooper]

Kenchar, lumbasakabayo at hotmail dot com

[KennyVictor]

For anyone else who finds it irksome to find jibberish where they are searching for enlightenment.

www.foreignword.com/dictionary/Tagalog/default.htm

[partypooper]

Kennyvictor! hey thanks for that VERY useful!!

[Dalray]

Kenchar,

You illustrated a couple of good days, what about a couple of bad ones and how many good days did it take to recover ?.

Have a good one. Ray.

[kenchar]

Dalray,
I have very few bad ones, if I do as you must have read in some of my other posts I stop at 3 points down which I usually recover in 2 days which still gives me 3 winning days in the week.
The exception to this was last month where I had a shocking two weeks,
I don't know the reason except that I thought I might be tired of looking at this screen switching sites every couple of seconds and might have become a bit scrambled in the old brain department ( which turns 60 this month ).
I had a few days break and since then I have gone OK.
I don't know whether that was psychological on my part or whether my method fell into a rotten hole, in this game one will never know.

Cheers