Betting in Pairs Plan

[Bhagwan]

Heres a plan with a high strike rate that requires a minimim inputfromyou, with the odd big payer poping up.

Look at races with 11-13 RUNNERS ONLY.After scratings)
1)Pair up horses TAB Nos. 1&2,3&4,5&6,7&8
2)What you now have to do is select the strongest selection of the two,if there is a scratching ,your job has been done for you .
3)We dont replace sratched horses with others.
4)We now bet one unit on all 4 remaining horses

Now if you have the ability to do this seperation procedure, you will make a fortune .
You will find
a number of box headed outsiders getting up within those 8 TAB Nos.when you least expect them.
It looks simple on paper, you will find days better than others ,with certain horses slipping under your guard.

Heres an example of its potential.
Bris.Sat.18th.May
R1.$9.20 R2.$2.60 R3.$27.30

Remember to try & stick to races with 11-13 runners.
All bets can be placed at once.Bet the same amount on each,level stakes.

[Bhagwan]

Try & use a simple seperation process like selecting the runner of the 2 with the best last start position.
If a draw look at the best 2nd last start position & so on.

Now lets see how it would of faired Wed22.May.

Bri.4 races with 11-13 runners.
Ret.$8.80

Syd.5 qualf. races, $3.00+$16.00+$4.00+$13.00+$10.30

Mel.1 qualf. race.
$2.50

Total return $57.60
10 races $4on ea.=$40.00 outlay
$17.00 profit=42.5%

Check it out.

[Bhagwan]

Results-Thur23rd May

Beadesert.3 qualfing races,11-13 runners
$10.70+$7.30
Werribee.2 qualifing races
$3.10+$2.50

Port Augusta.1 qualifing race
$3.00

Total Return$26.60
Total Outlay$24.00
Profit $2.60 =10.80% profit on turnover

[Fryingpan]

Bhagwan

This is very exciting stuff. Is this the same plan you used to come up with the selections in the other forum for Saturday? Please reply.

If it was what you did, then here is something in hindsight as a filter...

1) find those which are paying $4.50 or more
2) bet on these if they are TAB no 1-4

The result from last weekend's selections adding this filter was something like 24 (rather than 48) individual bets, for a very good (at least double) return for that day.

[Bhagwan]

Dear Fryingpan;
This plan is completely different to the selections as shown on the other site.
Those selections came from my personal handicapping program.

Those observations of yours are definitly food for thought & worth further research, I will go back over a couple of hundred results,to see what the stats. reveal .

I thankyou for your constuctive input,keep it going.

The results for Sat25th.May betting the best last start of the pair.

Mel.3bets $13.10+$4.10

Gold Coast.5Bets $2.80+$9.90

Syd.4bets. $12.60+4.20

Adl.3bets$3.30

Towoomba.3bets. $16.00+$4.30

Total Return$70.30
Total Outlay$68.00
Profit $2.30 3.40% profit on turnover

[becareful]

Bhagwan, Unless I am mistaken if you had 18 bets then your outlay was $72 (18*4=72) so you actually had a slight loss for Saturday.

However by my calculations the results for Friday would have been excellent:
Casino - 2 races for $4.30 div
Ballarat - 3 races for $19.50 div
Q'beyan - 4 races for $28.80 div
Rocky - 2 races for $14.50 div
So total of 44 bets for $67 div :smile: Most of the winners were in tab no's 1-4 so you would have been better off with only 2 bets per race (would have been 22 bets for about $57 divs).

I should add that I am very pessimistic whether this would work in the long run - I suspect what we are seeing here is a short term anomoly and in the long run it would even out. Be interesting to do a long term analysis on it though.

[Bhagwan]

Dear Becareful;
Thankyou for your input.
That outlay should have shown 2 bets for Mel. not 3 as shown (typo).17 races in total.

The results for Fri are not unusual.
The fact so many were in the firt 4 TAB Nos. is probably an anomily but still worth futher research .
Statisticly, TAB Nos.1,2,3,4. win more races than TAB Nos.5,6,7,8. Correspondingly ,the bigger divs. come from the latter group.
It`s worth further research if it can halve the outlay & maintain a similar profit on turnover.

[Bhagwan]

Heres an angle on seperating the pairs that has thrown up a number of large dividends & I dont know why.
You seperate the pair by ALPHABETICAL ORDER .I know it sounds crazy , but so are the dividends it has been pulling , maybe its just an anomoly , but the stats are there.
Example Tue May28th.
Goulburn 2 qual races $6.40
Bendigo 3 races $31.10+$3.80
Return $41.30
Outlay(4 horses per race) $24.00
Profit$17.30 POT 72%

Other race days have pulled similar results , I`ll research this further to see if the wheels fall off after 200 races.
Although I`m suggesting backing in alpha order its still a good idea to ignore resumers in races run over distances 1201 metres & more ,because their strike rate is less than 1%.

I know this all sounds weird & wonderful but the last bunch of races are reflecting an overal profit with the odd big dividend , theres` no way one would have picked them on form because it was rotten form. Thats why they pay generious divs.
Further research is required, before putting real money on it.
Check it out.

[Bhagwan]

Heres yet another method of separation .
Your selection is the one with the lowest barrier out of the pair.

Check it out.

[grasscutter]

Its great if you make money out of any of this.

However, this is akin to throwing a dart at the paper or picking horses which have more than 11 letters in their name with inside barriers - would have thrown up Maltese Beauty!

60,60,60 = 180!

[Bhagwan]

Its a statistical fact year in year out no matter what track in Australia you look at 80% of all races in this 1-8 TAB group, win .
Now all you have to do is use ones massive form interlect on the best 4 of the 8 & you will collect 80 times in every 100 races .
You cant loose.

The average horse analysing genious should be able to make their 1st. million dollars within, say, no more than 10 days.

Looks easy on paper doesent it, but what you find is winners with terrible form getting up, some at huge odds E.G. There have been 2 winners getting up paying more than 100/1 using these methods in only the last 10 days, as crazy as some of these ideas sound. Doing the form would not have selected them.

If doing just the form works ,the idea of seperating the pairs should be a snack.

They could post their selections on this site each Sat. & then wait to be ridiculed.
When they only make a small profit or loss.

The pairs concept is sound , its the human interpretation that dictates if its going to make a quid or not.

[becareful]

Bhagwan, perhaps you could explain to us why you beleive the "pairs concept is sound"? What is the logic behind paring up 1&2, 3&4, etc? It seems to me that you are trying to select 4 out of the first 8 horses and just picking a random method to do it to save studying the form, etc.

Also I am sure you are aware that the 80% winners from runners 1-8 is HEAVILY biased by the fact that a large number of races only have 8 or less runners. If you remove this bias then the results for runners 9 and above is not so bad - higher numbered runners do win less often than lower numbers but also pay higher average dividends.

Just my opinion but if you are going to back a third of the field then elinating 4 horses just because they have a name that starts with the wrong letter or are drawn 1 barrier wider than another horse is not a logical way to go about it.

[Dude]

Hmmm, very interesting.
Its essentially selecting 4 random numbers between 1-8, but hey.....
It seems to work, I have just looked at around 20 races at random over the last year with a tidy profit resulting on not only win or Place betting, but boxed Quin's on all four too.

Dude

[Bhagwan]

Dear Becareful;
Like I said previously, if one is a punting genious , you wont have a problem getting close to 80% strike rate.
The reason why they are paired like this is to try & get a spread of value working for us, hopfully snaring a big payer.
So use all your logic ,leave out the races you dont like, make it happen & make your fortune & share your findings with us all.

I`ve set out the basics , its up to the individual to refine & test it before puting real money on it.
Not all punters need to be spoon fed. I`ve just explained that some of the ideas defy logic, they were based on past observations because the horses result defyed logic .

What we need from your good self is whats going to happen in the future & put it on the Sat. tipster postings .
Thank you for your input.

[Bhagwan]

Dear Dude;
Thank you for sharing your findings.
Keep them coming.

[Bhagwan]

Stats for TAB Nos. 1-8

10 runners 87.9% 660 races
11 " 81.8% 610 "
12 " 76.2% 639 "
13 " 73.3% 484 "
14 " 73.8 378 "
15 " 67.0 264 "
16 " 63.4 262 "

TAB Nos. 1-8
Races with 11-13 runners average 77.1%
" " 10-12 " " 81.9%
" " 10-13 " " 80.3%
(These figures have taken in the individual number of races.)
The original method was to target races with 11-13 runners so as to possibly target value in bigger fields.
If one is hell bent on trying to secure the extra 3 winners in every 100 races , at the exposure of possible reduced value you could adjust the qualifing parameter to 10-12 runners , it might not have as great affect on value as suggested.

[Bhagwan]

Stats TAB Nos. 1-8

10 runners 87.9% 660 races
11 " 81.8% 610 "
12 " 76.2% 639 "
13 " 73.3% 484 "
14 " 73.8% 378 "
15 " 67.0% 264 "
16 " 63.4% 262 "

TAB Nos. 1-8 (figures have had the number of races taken into account)
10-12 runners 81.9%
11-13 " 77.3%
10-13 " 80.3%

If you are hell bent on getting the exta 4.6 horses in every 100 races at the expence of possible reducd divs. ,you could adjust the parameters to 10-12 runners.

Maybe it wont affect the final divs. all that much as suggested.

[Bhagwan]

Results for Sat. 8th.May

Using races 10-12 runners this time.
Betting in pairs , selection is the one with best last start method.

Bris. 1 Qualf. race $6.10

Syd. 5 " " $44.70+$4.00

Adl. 3 " " $44.90+$4.20

Return $158.70
Outlay $45.00 @4 horses per race.
Profit $110.70 POT 246%

Maybe the 10-12 horses is the stronger way to go without affecting divs.

Check it out.

[michaelg]

Hi, Bhagwan.
Do you have win percentages for:
A) Nos 1 - 6 for races with 10 starters?
B) Nos 1 - 7 for races with 11 starters?

Michael

[Bhagwan]

You can get those stats by contacting.
Daniel at puntersnotebook@optusnet

[Bhagwan]

The stats of winners

for TAB No. 1-6 10 runners exactly is 78.1%

for TAB No. 1-7 11 runners exactly is 85.4%

Statistic sample is based on over 20,000 races in Australia .