A completely new system

[KennyVictor]

I've been reading a book called "Watching Racehorses - a guide to betting on behaviour" by Geoffrey Hutson. This fella throws the form book pretty well completely out of the window and just looks at the horses to see how they are behaving in the birdcage, in the ring, in the yard and on the way to the start in order to decide who to bet on.
Your first thought might be that he must be a crank (or not) but he has done a very scientific study, crunched the numbers with a statistics program in a computer, etc, etc, and come up with some very interesting results.
He has about 60 points that he looks for in the horse from whether it is pawing the ground, the angle of it's head, if it's ears are flicking, etc, and other points such as if the horse needs two strappers, if the horse has a dump or walks sideways.
Early in his study he found that he couldn't really predict winners by his method but he had measurable success in picking losers. Basically, if the horse hasn't got it's mind on the job or looks to be carrying an injury or has had too much racing and ins't keen to run again, it ain't going to win.
I can't do it justice here but a few of the major pointers are bandages are bad - horses win much less often carrying bandages, a crossover noseband is bad. Kicking, weaving, fighting the bit, etc, all bad signs, arriving late and overweight jockey are statistically bad also.

The book is well written with digressions into such things as the dangers involved when men vaccuum in the nude, the detection of horses who are performing clitoral winking (very bad sign - she just hasn't got her mind on racing) among some very helpful hints for those of us who go to the track.
His most successful races are 2YO fillies races, mares races and restricted races so that would give a lot of us a bet in races we usually avoid.

Give it a read, it's a whole new perspective.

KV

[Duritz]

LOL overweight jockeys are bad?!?! Surely not! How about drunk ones? How about ones who five minutes before the race have received an envelope full of cash??

[Duritz]

Ooh, ooh, I know!! How about horses who have an erection? I part own a colt who wouldn't load in a mixed trial because he had an erection behind the stalls and was "spraying" the fillies!!!! Is that a good sign??

[Paddy]

Looks very interesting KennyVictor. Lots of photographs, figures & tables. Based on observation of over 10,000 horses. Love the claim that by simply betting on favourites with perfect behavioural handicaps it is possible for a casual racegoer to turn a normal 5% loss into a 10% profit.

[nickhanlon]

KennyVictor,that is the funniest thing I've read all season.You reduced me to rubble....tears of laughter as well.Guess really what Hutson is confirming the common sense things do matter....routine is paramount to success and any variation is to be viewed with shrewd scepticism.I think the key phase that we want is "controlled aggression".I like my mules calm in the ring but starting to fizz up as they enter the barrier....that is mentally alert.There,that's a system.
P.S.um..men vaccuming in the nude....very funny....never done it myself....is there a racing system in there somewhere?:)

[Shaun]

To be honest if you know how to do it then that is the best way to pick your horses....my misses has been around horses and i hate it when she decides sje wants a bet when they have them on TV she just looks at the horses in the parade ring and says "Oh i like that one he is a pretty horse or that one looks really nice with a nice coat" and i tell you what she is never far wrong...been trying to get her to the track for years but she doesn't like to bet....gees wish i could be like that and just look at a horse and decide.

[Duritz]

Does she vacuum in the nude?

[The Swooper]

Hi KV,
I know a punter in Perth who follows this method very closely and is very successful. Whenever I get to the track, I enjoy nothing better than discussing the nuisances of this type of selection method with him.

One area that I always have concern with is, when the clerk takes hold of mounts on the way to the barrrier. I have always seen this as a negative and tend to leave these runners alone. Would be interested in others thoughts on this.

Regards, Gary

[Sportz]

What about horses that undergo vet's inspections at the barrier and are passed fit to race? Have you ever seen one of them actually go on and win. It's probably happened once or twice, but I tell you if I've already placed my bet on one of these horses, I pretty much give up any hope of it winning. One of the reasons why I prefer to wait till the very last minute to place my bets.

As for looking at the horses, I must admit that I have no idea. I could tell if a horse is fat, but that's about it. Apart from that they all look basically the same to me.

[marcus25]

Hi KV,
I know a punter in Perth who follows this method very closely and is very successful. Whenever I get to the track, I enjoy nothing better than discussing the nuisances of this type of selection method with him.

One area that I always have concern with is, when the clerk takes hold of mounts on the way to the barrrier. I have always seen this as a negative and tend to leave these runners alone. Would be interested in others thoughts on this.

Regards, Gary
Did you mean "nuances"? instead of "nuisances"? Just a thought, not trying to be a smarta... Does not pay to be one on this forum.
Cheers.

[Sportz]

Nuisances is probably closer to the truth. :D

[The Swooper]

Hi Marcus,
Yes, you are right. Was thinking more along the line of how many factors there are.

I'll always remember standing at the fence with Tony when after a jockey was legged up, the horse had a dump. This is a definite negative so was automatically given the flick. Naturally the horse went terribly ;-)

Regards, Gary

[KennyVictor]

Ooh, ooh, I know!! How about horses who have an erection? I part own a colt who wouldn't load in a mixed trial because he had an erection behind the stalls and was "spraying" the fillies!!!! Is that a good sign??

Your colt really isn't exceptional Duritz. The author quotes a 7 day study by Dr M Tischner who found that of the 7 stallions he watched (using a flashlight at nights) they had an average of 7.4 erections per day, 3.8 full erections and attempted to masturbate 4.1 times. The stallions spent 38 minutes a day on average with an erect penis, 19.5 minutes of this time was spent masturbating. Sue McDonnel however in her study found an average of 18 erections a day in stabled horses, 75% of them including masturbation (broken down in to 83% bounces, 57% presses and only 13% pelvic thrusts). This book doesn't skimp on detail. However ejaculation was only observed on 4 of 447 occasions so maybe your horse was good performer - outside the stalls at least.
Unfortunately sexual signs are not a good omen for the horses winning prospects. Perhaps you should consider it for breeding.

KV

[KennyVictor]

One area that I always have concern with is, when the clerk takes hold of mounts on the way to the barrrier. I have always seen this as a negative and tend to leave these runners alone. Would be interested in others thoughts on this.

Regards, Gary

Hi Gary,

Yes, "Grabbed by Clerk" is one of his sixty variables. Scores a -5 on the richter scale (Erections are -15 Duritz). Anything other than a calm horse is pretty much a bad sign and if the clerk has to grab him I guess he ain't calm.

KV

[KennyVictor]

Hi Marcus,
I'll always remember standing at the fence with Tony when after a jockey was legged up, the horse had a dump. This is a definite negative so was automatically given the flick. Naturally the horse went terribly ;-)

Regards, Gary

Dumping scores a -8.

KV

[KennyVictor]

P.S.um..men vaccuming in the nude....very funny....never done it myself....is there a racing system in there somewhere?:)

I quote from the book here (and hope I don't infringe copywrite).
"While investigating this rather indelicate matter of horse masturbation I came across some information that needs to be passed on to punters in the interest of occupational health and safety. Surgical registrars at two London hospitals reported on several disturbing cases involving penile injuries to humans caused by, of all things, vacuum cleaners. In one case a 60 year old man said that he was changing the plug of his Hoover Dustette vacuum cleaner in the nude while his wife was out shopping. The machine 'turned itself on' and caught his penis causing severe lacerations. In another case a 65 year old signalman bent down to pick up his tools and caught his penis in a vaccuum cleaner which happened to be switched on." So it goes on.

I like an author who is concerned about the welfare of his punting friends as they go about their household chores.

KV

[Duritz]

Oh believe me, we are very aware that our colt isn't exceptional...... and as for the breeding? Well, unless you can find a way to breed without gazoolies, 'cos he's now a gelding.

Very funny anecdotes about the vacuum cleaning mishaps btw... Imagine trying to convince the doctor's/nurses of that.

"No, really, that's what happened!!" you say to the hot nurse who's looking at you with contempt.

I think I am going to get this book.

[KennyVictor]

Looks very interesting KennyVictor. Lots of photographs, figures & tables. Based on observation of over 10,000 horses. Love the claim that by simply betting on favourites with perfect behavioural handicaps it is possible for a casual racegoer to turn a normal 5% loss into a 10% profit.

Hi Paddy,

You've obviously read the book I'm interested to know if you felt you gained anything useful from it since it's sort of off at a tangent from most peoples way of picking a winner.
It's so opposite from my selection style (which is to sit in front of a computer and pretty much bet on the horses without even knowing their names, in fact lately I don't even listen to the races on the radio let alone watch them) that most of the time I can't really employ anything from the book directly. I have to say though that on the rare occasions when I go to the track it will make my day out more enjoyable and if I'm tossing up between a couple of close selections watching them at the track or on TV having read the book may well make the choice of which one I pick a lot easier.
Plus of course I'll always vacuum a lot more safely in future.

KV

[Paddy]

Hi Paddy,

You've obviously read the book I'm interested to know if you felt you gained anything useful from it since it's sort of off at a tangent from most peoples way of picking a winner...

KV

Well actually I'm in the process of reading it KennyVictor.
Lesson 1 already learnt. Be careful how you carry out your parade ring inspection ;)


As you know GH has concluded that signs of sexual behaviour reduce a horses expected chance of winning by 15%.



Well here I am first time at the mounting yard after flicking through the book (I normally flick through & then read in depth later). I'm thinking the direct approach is the best way to go, so as each horse goes past I look at them squarely in the eye, give them a wink & ask just loud enough for them to hear.....did you get any last night!??



Well! I can tell you...little reaction from the neddies, but the comments / looks received back from the strappers had to be heard / seen to believe :eek:



PS: if you're on the make, why not try the Paddy approach next time you're at the races......you might be pleasantly surprised :)



PPS: a pair of good running shoes is also highly recommended!

[KennyVictor]

Heh, heh, you're right Paddy. I asked my sister if I could feel her horses subcutaneous fat the other day (as recommended by GH) and got a very funny look. :-)