AFL Round 2 comments

[moeee]

Early tips from MO.
Some strange looking ones amongst them,but thats where the overs could very well be!

Carlton 13
Sydney 12
Melbourne 18
West Coast 15
Port Power 2
Fremantle 4
Adelaide 10
Hawthorn 3

[mug punta]

Gday Mo.
These are my early thoughts for round 2.

CARL over ess
SYD over north
MELB over bullies
PORT over bris
WCE over cats
SAINTS over freo
RICH/HAW- no way known im touching that game
ADEL over pies- won't be betting in that one either.

The most certain bets that stick out at me are MELBOURNE, WEST COAST and the SAINTS.
Was surprised to see you likes the Dockers. When they travel and start playing well i will acknowledge them but not till I actually see it happen.
The Saints are still a good side mate. That was easily the highest standard game in Round 1.

[mug punta]

Actually add Carlton to that also. Now that Walker and Livingston look like they will play I expect the Blues to be to strong.

[DR RON]

I'm a hawks supporter but I'm enough of a realist when moneys concerned to know that Richmond will win comfortably. At least they have got someone who looks like kicking goals every now and then, even if he is a bit of a sook, when he dosent get it lace out. The only bloke we had who could take an overhead mark in the forward line now plays for North. I cant see us kicking more than 12 or 13 goals in a game and in most games that just wont be enough. If we dont win the wooden spoon this year I will give up the punt!!!!!!!!

This might sound negative but we were just plain sh** house on Sunday, and look to have gone backwards. The new bloke Franklin looks as though he might be something in the future, but we have plenty of those types on the list that havent taken the step up.

For those ofyou in tipping comps that need to nominate one winner for the round to stay in the comp just pick whoevers playing Hawthorn., unless there from the local under 12s

[goldmember]

mAYBE,

carlton
melbourne
swans
port
w/coast
st kilda

thinking cap on other 2

hawthorn away to swans lost by 63,richmond at home to geelong lost by 62, so with hawthorn returning home, i'll tip hawthorn by 1 .

the crows record at the ground recently is WLWLWLWL, so i'll tip a crows win by 4.

[Sportz]

The most certain bets that stick out at me are MELBOURNE, WEST COAST and the SAINTS. Was surprised to see you like the Dockers. When they travel and start playing well i will acknowledge them but not till I actually see it happen. The Saints are still a good side mate. That was easily the highest standard game in Round 1.

They aren't playing at the Dome though. If this was at the Dome, they would be pretty good things, but it's down in Tassie. I think I'll still be going for them, but not by as many as if they were playing under the roof.

[moeee]

Was surprised to see you likes the Dockers. When they travel and start playing well i will acknowledge them but not till I actually see it happen.
The Saints are still a good side mate. That was easily the highest standard game in Round 1.

Still remember what Port done to the Saints in Tasmania.
The only game we are differing on.
And I'm starting to see signs of the Mug death wish appearing on the Saints!

[mug punta]

lol.
Nah mate. I just reckon we dont want to get 2 carried away with the Dockers just yet. Especially away from Perth. They lost to the Hawks in tassie last yera remember and if they can shut down pavlich, they may struggle to kick enough goals.
Boys, the saints like a few teams are underdone.
Gehrig cant even raise a gallop, kosi looks underdone and I just reckon last year they were up and running real early.
Good teams like Brissie know you have to start peaking about August.
Saints have 2 good a list to not give the flag a shake if they can finish top 4.

[Sportz]

Still remember what Port done to the Saints in Tasmania.


Mo, I'm not saying Freo can't win, but you shouldn't use Port Adelaide as your measuring stick. If you remember last year, I told you that Port have a brilliant record down there in Tassie and it's basically like a home game for them when they play there. On the other hand Fremantle were beaten down in Tassie in R8 last year by Hawthorn. At the time, Freo were 5th on the ladder with 5 wins and the Hawks 15th with just 1 win and coming off 6 straight losses.

I agree though that it's not a great venue for St Kilda either. It's a case of two teams both playing at a venue that doesn't really suit them. Not really a great betting medium. If it was at the dome, I'd say St Kilda fairly comfortably, but in Tassie I reckon they might still win it but narrowly.

[moeee]

After using my new player ratings,I have gone from Port to Brisbane and from Hawthorn to Richmond.

[moeee]

Trouble with my players ratings seems to be lack of fitness of many players of the major teams.

[marko]

Tell me mo do you adjust you player ratings on a weekly basis or season to season

[moeee]

Tell me mo do you adjust you player ratings on a weekly basis or season to season

Yes it's an average of the teams last 28 rounds,biased towards the most recent rounds.
But there is no provision for coming back from a hammy or a long suspension.

And the eerie thing is I originally had Brisbane to win by 23 points in round 1 adjusted for player ratings to +5 points.
Then yesterday I originally had Port by 2,adjusted to Lions by 5.

[moeee]

Had some doubles and trebles results riding on Adelaide.
Cost me $120 for a profit of $455.
Thank you punting gods!
One day they taketh away.And one day they giveth.

Come on Round 3.

[Sportz]

And the eerie thing is I originally had Brisbane to win by 23 points in round 1 adjusted for player ratings to +5 points. Then yesterday I originally had Port by 2,adjusted to Lions by 5.

You know what comes next, don't you? Or is it just the pessimist in me that thinks you will switch back to your original method next week only to find it costs you again as the new method strikes form?

If I had stuck religiously to my ratings in all 3 codes this week, I would have gone far better, but in a few games I switched my rating selections for 'gut feeling' tips. Not a good idea. :(

[moeee]

Hi Sportz.

Here is my before and afters for Round 2

Carlton 13 - 4 improve
Sydney 12 - 14 worse
Melbourne 18 - 27 improve
Eagles 15 - 3 worse
Port 2 - Brisbane 5 worse
Fremantle 4 - 3 improve
Adelaide 10 - 18 worse
Hawthorn 3 - Richmond 9 improve