rating service

[jose]

I don't know if I am allowed to ask this on this forum but here goes, (and apologies in advance if needed)
Does anybody subsribe to the WINFORM ratings service and if so are they quality?
I am thinking of giving them a go as I do not have the time to do my own and I don't mind paying for a reasonably accurate rating service.
Any input would be greatly appreciated.

[Bhagwan]

You will find the SR of their top 5 is less than the top 5 rankings in the pre-post market as is with most rating services.
Pre -post top 5 is 75%
Rating services 66%

They may argue that their`s is greater value in their results , but once again the pre-post market percentage was stronger in that its percentage loss on turnover was less , this goes for most other rating services.
Top 2 in prepost wins 45% rating services is around 36%
I`m talking about 5 well known & respected services.

Over 5000 races I found they all had very similar percentages.
The value comes into it if you can target their top 2 selections & bet the one you feel is the best to bet on .

One way to do this is bet the one you want to win for $4 & the other bet $1.00 as a saver , but only if they are both paying $3.50+ at jump time.

You will find they are much the same because they anaylis pure form & form is form therefor the shorter prices, but now & then they pull the odd big payer & this can make all the difference.

[darkydog2002]

Spot on BGHWAN.

Cheers.
darky.

[Top Rank]

Bhagwan

Just in relation to those stats. Are the ratings services rating all races on a program or selected races. Surely you could improve the stats if you looked at certain types of races. ie: maybe races where the top pick is well in advance of the rest or something similar etc.

[partypooper]

Good stuff Bhagwan, I can see why you asked me which ratings service I subscribe to now. Just as a matter of interest, referring to something Crash pinpointed, do those ratings and/or prepost stats improve or otherwise if restricted to 1250m to 1950m ???

[Management]

For a competitively priced racing service which concentrates on selective Saturday races we suggest you go to www.propun.com.au/racing_services.html

[partypooper]

Hi management, whilst I haven't first hand experience of the Pro-pun ratings I feel fairly confident, however the problem as I see it, is that one has to purchase a lot of other stuff whether one wants it or not, and also have to shell out for a whole year, when it may not be what is wanted. How about offering a 1 months trial $ pro-rata, (or FREE, worth a try) followed by a 1year sub??

[Top Rank]

I hope this is'nt seen as any competition to management, excuse if it is.

Have any forumites seriously thought about starting up their own tipping/ratings service. Can anyone tell me what would go into setting up something like that, the work and time involved and of course the cost?

My interest is piqued due to Bhagwans disclosure of stats.
I know for sure I could supply ratings - Top 3 on selected races - with a winning strike rate in 65% of races, obviously higher if I was to extend to Top 5.
I notice propun advertising that they tipped Grand Memories first up at big odds. Also found by yours truly in Top 3.

Would really be interested to hear from any persons who have the knowledge.

[jose]

Thanks for the replies fellas, although the water just seems to be getting murkier by the minute.
Top Rank I would be more than interested in your ratings if the strike rate is better than 60 odd %, perhaps you could email me and we could talk.
jfimmer @ ourbrisbane dot com

i have been round and round this game and I think that if one has a good set of ratings and stakes them wisely one could just get ahead of the mob.
Again, thanks for the replies.

[darkydog2002]

Is the BOOKMAKERS OPENING PRICES.
If your not betting AT THE TRACK you should be in order to gain the BEST
prices between bookmaker to bookmaker to tote..

Cheers.
darky.

[La Mer]

Is the BOOKMAKERS OPENING PRICES.
If your not betting AT THE TRACK you should be in order to gain the BEST
prices between bookmaker to bookmaker to tote. Cheers. darky.

That may have been true in the past Darky when bookies actually attempted to make an overround book, but it's not now, when most bookies set their prices according to the opening totes adding a few percentage points so that they invariably go up at 140% plus.

About five to seven minutes before the jump is now when bookies prices are meaningful but without a doubt, the most powerful ratings indicator are the prices on offer on Betfair with their 103% to 105% markets.

[darkydog2002]

Hi LA MER.
Not all bookies are gutless wonders opening their prices to the tote odds and its these bookmakers I am interested in betting with.
Market forces at some stage of the betting will allow me to gain an added advantage price wise.
Gaining the best odds makes the difference between an average year and a great year.
Cheers.
darky.

[BJ]

Watch the IAS fixed odds. They tell you what is going on at the track.. But totally agree, Betfair is the best indication. You can guarantee that if you can get better value on IAS than Betfair on a horse, the odds will shorten very shortly....

[Top Rank]

Jose'
Thanks for the offer and I can guarantee the ratings are genuine, but I may hold onto them for myself for a while yet. But my point is if I can produce ratings with a strike rate this high, anyone can. I can also guarantee I am no one special.
For that reason I am sure others on this forum would be able to tell of similar results, Sportz had a great strike rate through the Ratings Challenge and was kind enough to tell how he achieved it. For me it is about finding the right races. That generally means looking at only approx. 4-5 races on a Saturday over four states.

Jose keep at it, you can do it. Perserverance.

Good Punting

[DR RON]

I agree with the comments regarding betfair markets. If Im up late like last night i will have a bet on the sth african racing. I keep an eye on their tote price fluctuations and if there is a significant shortener I will have a dip at it if the odds are at least 1.5 times better than the tote. Last night there was one thta sat at about 11 or 12 on the tote at the start and then kept coming in. When it got to about 6.50 I grabbed it on betfair at $13.50 just for a few dollarsas an interest, well it won and ended up paying $4 on the tote. Dosent happen all the time but at least once a night whenever I m on. dont always win but seem to place most of the time. Since I started with b/f I have turned a small but consistent loss into a small profit which I put down purely tothe better prices. I no longer even bother with form. I let the herd sort them out for me.

[jose]

Well here goes fellas.
I shall have a bash at backing the pre-post favourite (from Fridays Courier) so long as it is down in prizemoney from it's last start.

DOOM R6 H4 SHADY BRADY
GOLD CST R6 H1 GOING SOLO
MORPH R2 H4 SOUTHERN CLASS
MORPH R4 H1 TAOS PLEASURE
RAND R1 H4 SHANNON BANK
RAND R3 H3 FORCE APOLLO
RAND R4 H1 EREMEIN
RAND R7 H1 GRAND ARMEE
RAND R8 H5 MAHTOUM
RAND R9 H8 FOUROFAKIND

May God give them strength.
This post probably should have been in the racing section but no matter.

[jose]

Hey Top Rank, thanks for the kind reply, but I have too many time constraints to be trying to rate them myself, just looking for an easy out I guess.

I may have a look at the first five lines of the opening market on Sportsbet tomorrow and maybe back the one that is dropping the most in prizemoney.
Will see how it goes.

[crash]

Why would anyone subscribe to a rating service when we all know the 'public' are better at it than anyone else and their 'service' [via a tote board 5/10min. to jump], is free ?

No offense to Management, [if they enter a thread to give an opinion, their opinion on the topic becomes fair game] but why should any punter subscribe to any rating service that is inferior to info. available for free ?

[Neil]

Why would anyone subscribe to a rating service when we all know the 'public' are better at it than anyone else and their 'service' [via a tote board 5/10min. to jump], is free ?

The "public" generally does not know what odds should be backed about selections.

The "public" does not adequately distinguish between true and false favourites, nor does the "public" know when a true favourite is under or over the odds.

The "public" consistently loses when horses at double figure odds win races.

A good ratings or tipping service can alert people to when some of these horses are value - that is well over their true winning odds.

You can compare the "public" plunging into many horses and betting them well under their true winning odds with the "public" plunging into internet stocks at the top of the internet bubble.

Put simply, the "public" are losers.

Cheers,
Neil.

[DR RON]

The " public' only become losersbecause that are betting into pools that are 15-30 % against them. The public on average lose 10-15 % backing favourites. If they were betting into 100% markets they might actually show A SMALL PROFIT ON THE FAVOURED RUNNERS so to call them losers is inaccurate. It is only the greed of the governments and bookies that keep them down. I agree with crash, Ive tried various rating systems over the years, they all through up thefavourites and only rarely something at half decent odds. They dont want to ruin their " amazing strike rates" giving you too many roughies to back. And when you ask about why your still losing $ they tell you your not backingthem correctly. ( their world famous staking plan). At least with betfair I have turned small losses into small gains by increasing the odds I get by about 20% on averag, compared to other betting organisations. Neil. please dont term the public losers in order to indirectly promote your products.

[jose]

Ooops! Hope I haven't started something here.

[DR RON]

Thats what a forum is for Jose, for people to give their opinions, whether everybody agrees or disagrees,

[xptdriver]

Gday All..
I find myself well and truly in Neil's corner here... As most know I rate nearly very race that the NSW TAB punts on.. and I bet my selections.. I find that if the "public" (for want of a better word) win on any given day I tend to lose. what that means if there are a lot of favs winning I am more likely to lose. My ratings throw up a lot of favourtites as well as the odd roughie as top selection, but if you are using ratings correctly, you don't just bet the top selection, If you do you will usually fail in the long run with ratings.(over time my top rater breaks even or turns a small profit at flat stakes, but I won't back the top one all the time) You need to look for the horses that present at value prices, and I am afraid looking blankly at a TAB screen in the pub, does NOT tell you where the real value is, unless you are armed with a set of reasonable ratings. Even a quick glance at the DFS sheet will give you a bit of an idea of what the market order is likely to be.

Now I don't believe for one minute that any thinking punter would walk in to a club/pub/TAb/oncourse TAB/bookmaker etc..and say "horse 1 is the fav...; I will get on even tho i know bugger all about it".. to my way of thinking that way lays the soup kitchen .. you will certainly go broke doing that.

People who provide ratings are people who take the time to atually do the form, and put thier expertise out there either freely or for a charge, for punters benefit.. Sometimes they are correct more often than not they are not.. thats the way racing is.. there is nothing in racing that is a given..except back favs exclusively and you will lose.. The idea is to help people to win. If people think that is not the case and say the public are the best judge (in my opinion they are an ok judge 30% of time) and will only blindly back what the public elects as fav.. more power to them.. I will take their hard earned when I rate something at $4 and it wins at10 or 15 bucks. remember when you are betting at the TAB,the money that ends up in your pocket is not the TAB's but the other punter's money.. the takeout is NOT your greatest enemy, the bloke standing next to you is the one that you are playing against.. so why would you want back what he is more than likely on? Unless you know that that horse deserves the tag of fav.. And you won't know that just by looking at a monitor...

[DR RON]

XPT,

All I am saying is that if I back every favourite at a price of 20+% over their final tab dividend, over a period of time, would I be in front or behind? my guess is slightly in front. As you point out there are true favourites and false favourites but racing being racing you will get horses that really deserve being short odds getting rolled and others that dont really deserve the favourite tag getting up. All ratings do is put you on to the horses that should run well provided that they get the chance to run their best, ( jockeys will have good days and bad days just like the rest of us) and on their bad oneswill position a horse poorly, so to me spending more time getting value rather than pooring through alot of form makes more sense. If your ratings are making you dollars then Im glad and hope it continues for you. The method I use also seems to work.

[jose]

Results of Pre post fav selections from previous page

10 bets for 3 winners and 6 placegetters
10/3 & 6
10/$9.20 & $10.60
Early daysbut, will keep an eye on it.

[crash]

I know what you mean Neil, but I still think the 'public' is given a a lot of flack it doesn't deserve [eg:their all mugs] and I'm also aware that 'value' is the name of the game.

After several tries at paying for ratings over the years [and from a couple of well known reputable services too], none of them showed a profit from their top picks and it isn't uncommon for some services to base their strike rate on 'winners' that have come from any of up to 5 selections they have made for a race, rather than their top selection. Top selections are almost always short priced favorites that anyone can pluck from the Sportsman or winning Post or even their local paper. How often do we hear the claim: 'so-and-so got up at $24 and our service picked it '! What isn't said of course is 'so-and-so' happened to be among 4 other horses for the race they selected and he certainly wasn't the top pick.

In a recent article, I read about several top Pro's who where given the opportunity to try and beat the 'mug punter' public's 30% win strike rate. Of course they all failed dismally. Anyone care to try out the experiment :-)) ?

Neil ? ...you still there Neil ?

Anyone else ?

[KennyVictor]

[QUOTE=DR RON]XPT,

so to me spending more time getting value rather than pooring through alot of form makes more sense. QUOTE]

My question here Dr Ron is how do you get value if you don't know which horse has the better form. You have to identify True and False favorites in some way and, although I know a lot of people on the forum seem to disagree with this view, I would expect a study of the form would be the most accurate way.


KV

[KennyVictor]

In a recent article, I read about several top Pro's who where given the opportunity to try and beat the 'mug punter' public's 30% win strike rate. Of course they all failed dismally. Anyone care to try out the experiment :-)) ?


I often see this 30% quoted. I'm interested to know what races it relates to. I process all races for a state (only done NSW and WA so far) in my system and get into the low 29% range but this includes all the backwater races which may only have a few runners. Based on that I would have thought someone who knows something about racing (I know buggar all about racing but a bit more about programming) would make 30%.
Maybe a bit harder on say all NSW Tab races though, where I'm a percent and a half down on the all up figure.

KV

[Top Rank]

I am a bit with you KV, because presumably you would have to do some type of form analysis, (as basic as it may be) to put horses in order to frame prices, then shop for value. This is what I do.

But I think value can mean different things to different people. Dr Ron is comparing prices from one source to the other, taking the longer one and calling it value. Maybe fair enough.

I think traditionally framing prices and then shopping is the recognised meaning of value. But I am all for alternative methods of finding winners, same for pricing.

Each to their own, ultimately the bottom line is the only thing that counts.

Each day you hear the word value butchered by tipsters. ie: wide open market $4-5 the field, "there will be plenty of value if you can find the winner." Total garbage.

I think the value of tipsters is somewhat outdated, especially the ones on radio and I take very little notice of any of them.

[DR RON]

Kenny Victor, Your right of course when you suggest that by not looking at the form I would not a true fave from a false one. What I ambaking on is the fact that the public get it right more often than any ratings service when compared on an overall basis and not just selected races. I know that sometimes I will back a horse that isnt as good as what the public thinks it is , but I am not going to worry about losing on an individual race, I try to look at it that over the longer term. In the past I have guilty of betting haphazard amounts on horses, usually more on the losing ones and smaller amounts on the ones that get up, but know thanks to reading as many posts as I can on this and other forums I now bet in a more logical fashion so that a couple of losers isnt going to faze me. All I am saying is that if I get overs on betfair on average around the 20% mark as against the tab then in the long term i may just make a dollar. Even when i do the form I dont get it right as often as the public. I sometimes may find a good price winner, but overall I lost money. By having set goals and going about in a settled manner, I am finally starting to make consistent progress.Considering the smallish amounts I bet,the purchase of ratings , even if they did show a profit, would not be justified as it would probably take years to get to a level where it was worth my while.

[KennyVictor]

So basically, Dr Ron, you're betting the public's view against the view of some individual who disagrees with the public. Sounds like a plan. I would say "Long may the public get it right" but I suppose my preferred method would rather they get it wrong so I'll just wish you good luck. :-)

KV

[BJ]

I am totally with you Dr.Ron.
The stats say: If you were to back every favourite on the tote, you would return 90% of your investment.
Betting on the tote which will pay out 85% means that in a 100% market, you would make money backing the favourite.
You should return $85, yet you return $90. If that is not the best free, and easiest ratings system, I don't know what is....

[Chrome Prince]

My opinion....

Both points of view are right - but only to a point.

a) The public's "ratings" probably do outperform any ratings service with regard to strike rate. The TAB market is the most effective filter to determine a horse's chances, but that does not equate to winning. Otherwise we'd all be losing so much % and that would be that.
There needs to be a way of finding out when the public has it right or just a little wrong. Or when the public overbets a favourite and others become value.

b) There was the point made regarding ratings, that the tote is more often right than any ratings service. I agree, but it's not about the number of winners, it's about value.
A good reliable ratings service will not boast "we picked more winners than the public". It will find value bets or overlays and identify where the public have overbet (confidence, hype etc) or underlay. A good ratings service will also have one or two horses in their top 3 that the public has ignored largely which win for one reason or another.

This is not an ad for propun, but correcting the misconception of value versus strike rate.

[DR RON]

Chrome, maybe I have just been unlucky with the services I have subscribed to in the past. I wasnt meaning to sound like I was having a go at Neil, he has a jjob to do just like the rest of us, I was just trying to make the point that the public are pretty good at whatt hey do considering the drawbacks their up against regarding take outs ecetera.

Good luck and good punting to all.

Kenny Victor, it dosent matter what route we take to get there as long as we all end up in the black.

[woof43]

To really gain any value from a Rating Service it needs to provide probabilities for each runner.

One thing about this whole idea that is important. Is the whole concept of overlay "accuracy" comes into play. For example, let's say I create a partition consisting of a group of runners that I/Rating Service say all have a winning probability within some fairly narrow range, say a couple of points around 25%. We can look at the crowd odds on those runners and come up with the crowd's version of a probability expectation for those runners.

The issue is, mine /or the Rating Service methods don't have to be EXACTLY accurate to be VALUABLE. If the crowd gives a runner a 15% chance of winning, and I/Rating Service give him a 25% chance of winning, if his ACTUAL probability is anything greater than the crowd's 15% peg, then I've found an overlay. I don't need him to actually get to my 25% estimate to have done something worthwhile. If he's higher than 15% AT ALL, then I'm doing the job. Obviously the more accurate my/Rating Service estimates are, the better, but all I have to do is push past the crowd probability on my side, and I've won.

The core concept is in identifying overlays. And an overlay can be 1 cent potential profit. After all, if I think a runner is a 20% overlay and I bet on him, and he turns out to only give me a 10% profit, then I've STILL made a nice profit, even though I didn't achieve my 20% estimated target!

[KennyVictor]

Surely the accuracy of the ratings service's assessment of a horses chances are paramount. In your example you have a bit of room to move and if they assess a horse at 25% and they are 5% out you are still betting on a horse that is 5% better than the public's 15%. I would think it's more likely you will be looking at differences that are less than this and a (say) 5% swing either way will tip a correct overlay into an actual underlay or vice versa. If you allow a hefty margin for error on the part of your ratings service you will be cutting your number of bets down a lot.

KV

[crash]

Quote from Chrome: "A good reliable ratings service will not boast "we picked more winners than the public". It will find value bets or overlays and identify where the public have over-bet (confidence, hype etc) or underlay".

...and just how does a rating service recognize and supply 'overlays' to subscribers when that info cannot be known except minutes before a race?

I used to get my ratings Sat. morning and whether the public is going to back the selections into underlay or overlay [if the rating service also supplies a price for a selection which they usually don't] is unknown to anybody at that time. No rating service or anyone knows what price a horse is going to jump at.

[Chrome Prince]

...and just how does a rating service recognize and supply 'overlays' to subscribers when that info cannot be known except minutes before a race?

I used to get my ratings Sat. morning and whether the public is going to back the selections into underlay or overlay [if the rating service also supplies a price for a selection which they usually don't] is unknown to anybody at that time. No rating service or anyone knows what price a horse is going to jump at.

The ratings service does not supply the overlay, the ratings service supplies the prices and it is up to the subscribers to obtain the best price and recognize the overlas via odds.

No prices supplied? Well how can you possibly bet overlays - find one that does.

[Bhagwan]

Why not have a go at creating your own price market ,then bet all the selections in the race that are paying greater than your selection 1 min. till jump time.

What one will find ,doing this process , is that the TAB Shortest price Fav is now seen as your enemy , because they have a habbit of getting up when you don`t want then to , just beating your horse when your horse was leading ,
with 50 metres to go.

SIMPLE VALUE RATING METHOD
(This has been brought up before on this forum)
1)Target the top 4-5 ranked horses in the newspaper pre-post.
(these make up 75% of all winners)
You could also use the Pro Puns top 5 selections ,which are FREE.

2)Only target races where all 4-5 ranked pre-post horses ,have had at least 1+ career wins, with at least 2+ career starts. Otherwise , no bet that race.

Also , if there are any resumers in your 4-5 ranked selections , no bet that race.

We are trying to craete an Apples with Apples environment & resumers are Oranges which can create an upset result out of our control ,that`s why we delete these races all together.

3)Divide it`s career wins into its career starts , this will give us the odds it has to be ,before we place a bet , once the TAB price is known.
e.g. 3 wins over 10 career starts =3/1 ($4.00)
5 wins over 36 starts 7.2/1 ($8.20)
The TAB has to pay more than these prices before one bets on them, so as to get the overs. That`s why they are called overs.

4) Target races where field size is between 10-15 runners, so as to work with bigger prices.

5) Bet the Overs selections , same amount on each .

What we are to do here ,is trying to create a Book against the Bookmaker .
We have the advantage that we can Cherry pick the races that will suit us for value and leave the others because we dont have to bet in every race like he has to.


May The Punt Be With You.

[jose]

Bhagwan, do you know of anyone using this approach? If so, are they having any success.
It seems straight forward enough to me, and I like to keep things simple.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Jose ,
It works just as well as anything else, if not better in most cases
It just depends on the day if TAB favs want to get up all day or not , if they fall over ,we win.
If one feels the pricing is too high , try running it with one point deducted off the final figure.

E.g. 3 wins fron 10=3/1 you could convert this by deducting one point off all final figures, in this case 2/1 ($3.00)
This will give you more winners but its a question of ,is there more profit to be made , I tend to feel there could be, if one follows the said rules of selecting the right races.

Picking the right races is half the secret to success.
E.g. Avoid races where the whole field has not had at least 2 career starts.
These type of races produce quite a number of outsiders with crazy form credentials.
If your 4-5 horses have all had 2+ career starts & none are resuming , there is a very strong chance of one of those mules getting up for you, at value prices.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

I forgot to mention one very important rule that was left out of the original post.
The win to starts ratio , relates to GOOD tracks only.
E.g. A Mule may have had 2 career starts but only one start on a good track , thats OK.
So if a Mule had 3 wins on Good track out of 10 starts on a Good track its rating would be 3/1 ($4.00)

We do this regardless of what todays track condition is.
It finds a lot more winners doing it this way.
Remember , their rating is worked out on GOOD Track wins to GOOD Track starts only.

Cheers.

[DR RON]

To all those who had doubts about my method regarding not bothering about looking at form and just trying to work the odds, well , I'm starting to think you may be right. To a certain extent. As Ive said recently, since I started using betfair all Ive done for aus racing is take the prepost market , use a spreadsheet to convert it into a 90% market and then bet when I get the price I want. Well, I am still making a small profit but have come to the conclusion that had I had a reasonble idea about the true chances of a horse I may have been able to increase that profit some what. I have sometimes got on too early and then seen the price go out to something I would say is ridiculous and then see them quickly snapped up again and back to a normal expectation.

[BJ]

Dr Ron.
When working out your market and making an offer on BF, why don't you put in ridiculous odds that you want. (You say you can accept $5, why not put in $10). As the race draws nearer, lower them until you get to the minimum of your 90% market.

You would be surprised at the value you can get by having your offer on the table.
I have seen in 2 consecutive days, a $2000 bet on a horse at $1.6. The horse started at about 20 to 1. (Obviously not good for the punter, but imagine the party the layer had after that...).. And a $2000 bet at $1.10 on a horse that started at 50 to 1.

You won't get them all matched but I can guarantee you that some of them will be matched and your 90% market is suddenly 85%.

[DR RON]

Thanks for the suggestion BJ, I do that sometimes already however I can get a bit impatient waiting for acceptance so I end up lowering them a bit early in some cases.

[jose]

Hey thanks for that Bhagwan.
I shall have a lash at it tomorrow with mininal stakes and see how it goes.