27th May 2002, 10:26 AM
I spent a couple of hours on sunday going thru the results - here's what I found from 19 races in melb,syd and bris
(i excluded 2yos and hurdles)
From 19 winners:
# BETTING: 16 were in top 3 in pre-post betting (84%) - 75-80% about avg i guess
3 were 5th or 6th fav . So all in top 6.
# RECENT FORM: 17 ran a place at either of 2 previous starts, 2 were in top 5 at either of 2 previous starts.
11 won last start, 15 placed last start. All finished within 4.5lengths of leader at previous start.
#PRIZEMONEY: 13 in top 4 $/race, 2 ranked 6th, 1 7th, 3 worse
# DISTANCE: Of those that had run over the distance before - all had placed.
# WIN%: 16 had a win % of 20% or higher, 3 between 10-20%
# PLACE%: 18 had 40% or higher, other was 38%
# DIVIDENDS: Range was $3.20-$9.00. Avg was $5.25. 7 2nd favs won, 5 favs won and 4 3rd favs won.
Conclusion: Therefore, the ideal horse is in top3 in betting, top4 by prizemoney/race, ran a place at either of past 2 starts, win % of 20% and place % of 40%.
(i excluded 2yos and hurdles)
From 19 winners:
# BETTING: 16 were in top 3 in pre-post betting (84%) - 75-80% about avg i guess
3 were 5th or 6th fav . So all in top 6.
# RECENT FORM: 17 ran a place at either of 2 previous starts, 2 were in top 5 at either of 2 previous starts.
11 won last start, 15 placed last start. All finished within 4.5lengths of leader at previous start.
#PRIZEMONEY: 13 in top 4 $/race, 2 ranked 6th, 1 7th, 3 worse
# DISTANCE: Of those that had run over the distance before - all had placed.
# WIN%: 16 had a win % of 20% or higher, 3 between 10-20%
# PLACE%: 18 had 40% or higher, other was 38%
# DIVIDENDS: Range was $3.20-$9.00. Avg was $5.25. 7 2nd favs won, 5 favs won and 4 3rd favs won.
Conclusion: Therefore, the ideal horse is in top3 in betting, top4 by prizemoney/race, ran a place at either of past 2 starts, win % of 20% and place % of 40%.