AFL Round 3 comments.

[moeee]

Just had a look.
What an incredibly open Round!
This one will sort the men out from the boys.

[marko]

Your not wrong it's one of those rounds
After studying some stats and taking last week into consideration I have come up with the following for anyone interested ;

(do em now so I dont change my mind during the week)

MELB v GEEL Geez what a game to start with. Geelong could be affected by their long trip west and Melbourne good at the G so Melbourne I guess.

CARL v COLL I hate collingwood Carlton

ST.K v KAN I support the Kangaroos ,I have failed to tip them 2 weeks and I know if I tip them they WILL lose but the Saints slogged it out in the wet last week and Riewoldt out plus they arent playing like premiership fancies to me.......................................Go Kangas


FREO v WCST This game is just huge over here every time .Trouble is the dopey dockers rarely beat the eagles and I think this time will be no different
Judd is in class of his own .Cuz back. Eagles

BRIS v SYD Man I wouldn't want to be a lion at training this week nor would I like to be a swan come Saturday night cos Brisbane will think its alright for fighting. Lions


ADEL v PORT Same scenario as Freo/WC Port


ESS v HAW What a bloody ripper this will be GAME OF THE ROUND .Actually this could be the battle for that wooden spoon.YAWN..............................................oh Bombers


WBULL v RICH Stats says Richmond.Gut says Richmond .My 4 yo daughter ,she says Richmond Go Tiges


Bet it dont turn out this way it never does ,does it

[moeee]

Early tips from MO for Round 3.

Melbourne 3
Carlton 17
St. Kilda 6
West Coast 4
Brisbane 25
Port Power 13
Essendon 25
Bulldogs 16

Not as tricky as I thought at first glance.
3 games that could go either way.

[rabbitz]

Just had a look.
What an incredibly open Round!
This one will sort the men out from the boys.

Mo
I am in the afl tipping comp at www.afl.com.au and I am running about 6000th out of 68000+ but guess who I saw at number 582 with a perfect score for rd 2,PRIMO,it couldnt be him could it,he was into the italian soccer
hmmm,I havent heard from the czar since he wanted a tip in the Darwin cup
I tipped him "Swampy Jack"and i havent heard from him since
round 3 is close
Surely the Kangas could beat st kilda on current form
brisbane should do sydney ,the blues will eat pies,but the subiaco derby is a coin toss as is bombers and hawks
cheers

[discipline pays]

Looks some great value this weekend. Looks to be some pretty short priced false favs... dont think i will " snap up " the 1.40 on essendon ( even though hawks are terrible ) or saints over roos at 1.57, and even brisbane at 1.33 look a bit short considering swans recent good record against them. might take swans at line as they never seem to get involved i high scoring games.

[Sportz]

and even brisbane at 1.33 look a bit short considering swans recent good record against them. might take swans at line as they never seem to get involved i high scoring games.

I think they will probably end up shorter than $1.33 too, because people will simply go on their respective last quarter performances on Saturday. Sure, Brisbane may very well win, but this is Sydney we're talking about and it doesn't matter what their form is leading into these games. They just seem to know how to play against Brisbane. If this was at the SCG, no hesitation at all from me in picking the Swans. At the Gabba, Brisbane will possibly get away with it, but I don't think they deserve to be short priced favourites.

[rabbitz]

UNI TAB ODDS
Melbourne 1.68
Geelong 2.05

St Kilda 1.57
Kangaroos 2.25

bris 1.33
Swans 3.00

freo 2.10
West coast 1.65

Adelaide 2.90
port 1.35

essendon 1.35
hawks 2.90

west dogs 1.65
richmond 2.10

carl 1.40
pies 2.70

Kangas great value 2.25
Port 1.35 not bad
carl 1.40 yes
cheers

[moeee]

Surely the Kangas could beat st kilda on current form


Give 'em half a chance to f--- you up,and they will Rabbitz.
Know that you have been forewarned!

[moeee]

I think they will probably end up shorter than $1.33 too, because people will simply go on their respective last quarter performances on Saturday. Sure, Brisbane may very well win, but this is Sydney we're talking about and it doesn't matter what their form is leading into these games. They just seem to know how to play against Brisbane. If this was at the SCG, no hesitation at all from me in picking the Swans. At the Gabba, Brisbane will possibly get away with it, but I don't think they deserve to be short priced favourites.

Sportz,when you say you barrack for the Brisbane Lions,what in fact do you mean?
I think you have lost the plot in what supporting a team is all about.

[Sportz]

Supporting a team is wanting them to win every week. Supporting a team is not blindly tipping them to win every week even in games where facts and figures suggest they aren't going to. Are you suggesting that any Hawthorn fan who has the common sense not to tip his team this year is not a real Hawthorn supporter?

[rabbitz]

I cant remember You Sportz ever having one good thing to say about the lions
I reckon youll back Hawthorn when Brisbane play them in round 5,even though Brisbane will have big bad JB and Simon the likable back
Cheers

[rabbitz]

Give 'em half a chance to f--- you up,and they will Rabbitz.
Know that you have been forewarned!
Now Moee this week could be my last bet and Im going to take Lions-Port-Crusaders treble,I just think St Kilda is struggling,either that or Freo are playing extra well
Cheers

[Paddy]

Now Moee this week could be my last bet and Im going to take Lions-Port-Crusaders treble,I just think St Kilda is struggling,either that or Freo are playing extra well
Cheers

IMO Freo are playing extra well rabbitz, but still only early days.

[Sportz]

Rabbitz,

I apologise for not being one of those blatantly one eyed idiots that continually boast about how their team is going to thrash somebody else's team by 100 points every week. I also apologise for not being one of those feral supporters you see at the game continually abusing opposition players and the umpires who of course are robbing their team blind if they don't get every single free kick awarded in the match.

Believe me Rabbitz, the Lions GF wins in 2001, 2002 & 2003 were 3 of my all time sporting highlights. I still remember how absolutely brilliant it felt in 2001 and the next two years were equally terrific (with the added bonus of seeing the look on Eddie's face).

[Sportz]

By the way Rabbitz, I've just gone back through 2004 and found my results betting on Lions games. I didn't back the Lions once, but I did bet against them 15 times for 10 wins. I know some of you can't understand that thinking, but call it an 'insurance' bet or whatever you want, I feel much better knowing that I can make some money on the occasions when I think the Lions might struggle. I must point out that as part of the Home Dog system I was using last year, I had to bet against Brisbane pretty much every time they played away from home anyway. I had 1 unit on all those games regardless of form. The 2, 3 & 4 unit bets were the games where I really thought that Brisbane were under the odds and the opposition were good value. You'll see I won 8 out of 9 with those bets.

Rd 1 Bris v Syd +23.5 - 1 unit @ $1.85 WON
Rd 2 Adel +11.5 v Bris - 1 unit @ $1.85 LOST
Rd 4 W.Cst +5.5 v Bris - 4 units @ $1.90 WON
Rd 6 St. K +4.5 v Bris - 3 units @ $2.00 WON
Rd 7 Kang +28.5 v Bris - 1 unit @ $1.85 LOST
Rd 9 Frem v Bris - 3 units @ $1.85 WON
Rd11 Bris v Port Adel +28.5 - 1 unit @ $1.90 LOST
Rd12 Ess +8.5 v Bris - 2 units @ $1.90 LOST
Rd13 Geel +19.5 v Bris - 2 units @ $1.90 WON
Rd16 Coll +22.5 v Bris - 1 unit @ $1.85 LOST
Rd18 Syd +21.5 v Bris - 4 units @ $1.95 WON
Rd19 Bris v W.Cst +39.5 - 3 units @ $1.85 WON
Rd20 Hawt +41.5 v Bris - 1 unit @ $1.85 WON
P.F. Geel +30.5 v Bris - 2 units @ $1.90 WON
G.F. Pt Adel +12.5 v Bris - 4 units @ $2.00 WON

Total: Out 33 units, In 51.8. Profit 18.8 units (57%)

Not bad results considering I was betting against a team which ended up coming 2nd. If a 57% profit means I'm not a true supporter, then I'll accept that. :D

[BJ]

My round 3 comment is: I am disappointed that Saints/Kangaroos are not on free to air tv... Probably have to go to the pub...

[moeee]

My round 3 comment is: I am disappointed that Saints/Kangaroos are not on free to air tv... Probably have to go to the pub...

Don't know your options BJ,but make some enquiries regarding the Aurora package.
Satellite television.If available will cost about $600 one off payment.

[Sportz]

Sure, Brisbane may very well win, but this is Sydney we're talking about and it doesn't matter what their form is leading into these games. They just seem to know how to play against Brisbane. If this was at the SCG, no hesitation at all from me in picking the Swans. At the Gabba, Brisbane will possibly get away with it, but I don't think they deserve to be short priced favourites.

Well, thanks mainly to the comments of Rabbitz and Moeee, I eventually decided against picking the Swans in the tipping comp. I certainly backed them though. Had a small bet on them outright and a bigger bet on the line. The start was very inviting considering I really thought it was a 50/50 match.

[thefan]

Backed 2 units on Sydney 19.5+ . Although lost i unit on NQ.

[Rock Steady]

the fan said : "backed 2 units on Sydney 19.5+. Although lost i unit on NQ."

It's always easy after the final siren.

[moeee]

the fan said : "backed 2 units on Sydney 19.5+. Although lost i unit on NQ."

It's always easy after the final siren.

Don't mean to sound picky Rocky,but I do remember you had a hard time laying your cards on the table before the winning race as well.
I gave the dogs away and I believe your theory on race assessment now,but too much work for me and too much outlay involved.

[Rock Steady]

moeee,
Trouble with the dogs moeee is that I don't know what I'm backing until about 3 minutes to the jump depending on tote prices. Sure I have my contenders but I really like to back the value runners so I wait until as long as possible for the market to settle down. Even then it is hard to know what the final dividend will be. Plenty of dogs go from $2.50 with a minute to go to $5.00 after the race. So it is very difficult to post selections on that basis to the forum. I just haven't got the time to do that when I'm busy enough getting my own bets on in the last couple of minutes.
On race assessments, there are really no shortcuts. I spend about 5 hours per meeting doing tapes etc. Those who are trying to come up with short cut systems are barking up the wrong tree. The harder you work the more you win.
Where have I EVER said I backed a dog at such and such odds AFTER the race? I have mentioned overall POTs but never ever have I said what you are intimating.

[moeee]

moeee,
Plenty of dogs go from $2.50 with a minute to go to $5.00 after the race.

Where have I EVER said I backed a dog at such and such odds AFTER the race? I have mentioned overall POTs but never ever have I said what you are intimating.

And plenty of dogs go from $5 to $2.50.
And I had noticed they seemed to be the leaders.Maybe you and your mates waiting last seconds?

And I'm not bagging you Rocky,just saying it's not easy to tip 'em before the race.In your case,for the reasons you mentioned.
Let thefan bask in his glory!

[Sportz]

Don't tell me the Bombers are going to throw another one away. After leading by 30 points at one stage, Hawthorn's hit the front. Essendon are notoriously bad in the last quarter. Surely not a win for the Hawks???

Last week Essendon kicked 15.3 or something and this week so far 7.14!!!

[BJ]

My round 3 comment is: I am disappointed that Saints/Kangaroos are not on free to air tv... Probably have to go to the pub...

Changed my mind, probably something I didn't need to see......