STAKING PLAN

[Equine Investor]

Thought I would share something I found on the net while waiting between races.....

http://www.grandstand.com.au/retirement.html

One of the best staking plans around as it takes into account your average price and strike rate!

Cheers.

what do you know about formula one?

[Equine Investor]

Yes, gun punter I thought this was worth further investigation....however, it would appear that the site is not operating any more. I would love to find out more about this formula one rating system as it certainly produced some surprising results.
Anyone else used this before?

[Equine Investor]

Well that helped us all!

[schmucta80]

i dont understand how they go from first bet 100 to second bet 115 to third bet 135????
but ive never been able to understand these divisor things any help would be appreciated

[Reenster]

Each subsequent bet is the adjusted target divided by the divisor. After the first bet ($100) loses it is added to the target (which now becomes $700). $700 divided by 6 is $116 (rounded down to $115). If this loses it is added to the target ($815). $815 divided by 6 is $135 and so on....

is it something simple like:
# Favourite must be ranked in top 4 by prizemoney/race?
# Favourite must not be rising in class and weight?

With sufficient pre-post markets and results, one could check these factors themselves - anyone kept formguides each week this year??
Punters - if you keep either Friday's formguide or saturday each week for 6 months or more - you can do your own testing of simple ideas/systems like this.
Results can be obtained from NSWTAB site or other state sites I guess.

[Equine Investor]

Received a reply email from the site today.
They are still operational but have had a site crash and are working to restore their various parts of the site.
From what I can gather Formula One is based on win strike rates. BUT..They award extra points for say a win at this track over this distance and in this class, so a win strike rate of 20% would increase if the horse qualified under those factors to say 30 or 40%. This is not accurate, just my summation of the information available. They then rate the horses according to their strike rate on those various factors. Their results also reflect that a horse must have won at least one of it's last three starts and in most cases two out of three and there seems to be something in the system about lengths from the winner in their last three starts.
Just guessing from info on their site.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-29 16:13 ]</font>

Guess,

Something like
6pts for a win over track/distance
4pts for a win over distance
3pts for a win at the track
2pts for other wins.

Lets say a horse has had 10 career starts.
Maximum points available would be 60pts.

Now assume a horse has done the following:
2 wins over distance = 8pts (watch for double counting here - excl track/dist win)
1 win at track/distance = 6pts
1 win at track = 3pts (excl 6pt win)

total points is 17, 17/60 is 28%.
Then have a rule where if the fav's total pts are less than 20% of maximum available - no bet!


Something worth looking into anyway. Save the $160 (use it to punt with) and do some research.

[Fryingpan]

For those who are interested in a spreadsheet form of the retirement staking plan you can send me a short message and I will send you a copy in Microsoft Works and Excel format. The email address is findlg@boxfrog.com I have it set up on this address to post to you without (much) fuss. You still need to learn about it on the site Equine Investor has mentioned above to understand it.

[Researcher]

My interpretation of Formula One
The following are considered:
Course Win%
Distance Win%
Track Condition Win%
Course/Distance Win%
If these are considered for the current race then these (averaged) do indeed produce a different Win% from the overall Win% given in form guides. This can then be used as a filter (as they said on the site, on any system). Iwould also consider Place % as this is a better indicator of winning chances so the stataticians tell us.

[Equine Investor]

Researcher...sounds good to me.

However, how do we weigh up a correct percentage if a horse has 3 wins on this track and another has three wins over the distance but not at this track? How do we rate the merits of either or are they equal? Some would agree, others disagree. Also do you think that if a horse has a 60% place strike rate including wins, and another has a 60% strike rate on wins and no placings...which is the better horse?
Just ideas to consider when you are adding percentages together and averaging them.
Also we have to include adjusted percentages for the class of races won i feel.

_________________
Invest - Don't Gamble!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-30 23:21 ]</font>

Another factor you could throw in:
Favourite must have finished in first 2 last start.

[Equine Investor]

Thankyou very much for that spreadsheet Fryingpan - much appreciated.

Did you factor in increasing the target by 10 after the bank increased....and if so is it possible to remove this one factor on the spreadsheet as I have found after say 100 bets, the percentage of the bank you are risking becomes unmanageable.

Incase you are wondering why...my divisor is 2 and the average price is $1.81!
:grin:

Any thoughts?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-04 14:14 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

BUMP

[Fryingpan]

Equine Investor

The retirement plan as I read it from the site works by betting with the divisor AND a target figure.

When you have reached your first target amount, then a NEW target is set and the spreadsheet gives you a figure that is 6% of your new bank,(your original bank plus the surplus you made by reaching the original target). If I remember right the retirement site says to make this target size 5%. So I did err there a bit on the greedy side. If you continue with this progression plan it moves into higher betting amounts because the bank is larger and the target is also larger etc etc....

To change the 6% part, go to the cell G4 which is the starting cell of the formulae, and where it says 0.06 change this to 0.05 or 0.03 if you only wish to aim for say 3% of your bank. Then you need to paste this down the entire column to alter the other figures.

Any hassles I can always send you another file with a different name so you can see what I mean.

That's a start anyway.

[Equine Investor]

Thanks for sending me the amended file Fryingpan.

Anyone using this program?

Anyone having success or problems?

I am finding for some reason that after say 100 bets...not only is my bet size increasing but the percentage of the entire bank bet.

E.G. at $200 bank my first bet is $2.00
When the bank grows to say $800 the bet is $80.
Any ideas???

[Bhagwan]

This is a very good staking plan ,you can make the thing drive into profit even on a small level stakes loss.

By reducing the divisor by the actual price figure E.g. If you were on divisor 11 & you get a $4.00 payer, the new divisor becomes 7 for the next bet .
It does`nt drive the initial outlay up too much which is what you want to try & acheive when it comes to progressive staking plans.

Well done Equine Investor, for finding & shareing this plan.

[enjay]

RETIREMENT STAKING PLAN .GRANDSTAND PUBLISHING.
I am only new to this site and I am very impressed with the quality and sanity of the postings.
Firstly I have been using the retirement staking plan for some time and it is a nothing short of sensational.
Secondly to FRYINGPAN. I have sent an email to your address on message posted 30/5/02 re spreadsheets. If that address is not now valid please let me know as I would like to get in touch with you.
Finally, the Grandstand site is up and running again as I have found out tonight.

good punting. ENJAY

[Fryingpan]

Apologies Enjay

I have sent the same sheet with example to all people (even tonight and I was a couple of days late sorry) whom I've received emails from. Please email me again at the same address, findlg@boxfrog.com Might be the email people....