Equine Investor's Special Tips Of The Day!

[Equine Investor]

Tues; 28th May 2002.
Goulburn Race 3 Horse 3 Rocksign
Bendigo Race 7 Horse 2 Wise Ruler

Happy Punting :grin:

_________________
Invest - Don't Gamble!



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-29 22:41 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Rocksign ran second and paid $1.20 the place.

Wise Ruler didn't handle its weight well and ran a close fourth.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-28 16:20 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Canterbury R2 Horse 3 Oakfield Lad

Canterbury R6 Horse 1 Oakfield Duke

Canterbury R7 Horse 1 Wedding Belle

Flemington R4 Horse 1 Barrenjoey Sunrise

Flemington R6 Horse 1 Indigo Rain



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-28 22:14 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

***Selections have changed for Wed 29th May
due to track conditions***


##SEE ABOVE##

[Equine Investor]

Oakfield Duke was the only winner paying $2.10 (VICTAB).
A very bad day as some contenders were unknown on slow tracks but still put them in for value.


-----------------------------------------
Win percentage 14.28
Average Dividend $2.10
Profit/Loss level stakes -$4.90

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-29 16:07 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Thursday's Tips!

Mt. Gambier R6 2 Campaspe

Mornington R4 2 Our Option

Mornington R9 4 Djorkaeff

Wyong R4 10 Play Dirty

Sounds more like gambling than investing.

How can you invest in a 1.5 min race?
Do you buy options on the last trading day, 1.5 minutes before the close?

If you were an investor, wouldn't you be buying horse flesh for breeding purposes?

[Equine Investor]

lol gun punter!

Investing is where you KNOW that given your average strike rate and average dividend you may lose money on the day or even week, howvever, you will make a profit in the longrun due to these factors.

Gambling is where you try to pick winners in a haphazard way oblivious to the fact of strike rate and dividend, without a system and without proper form analysis. You try to get out on the last race and chase losses so you win on the day. You walk into a TAB and look at what the next race is that's running...dash to the formguide, make a 30 second decision, place your bet and swear at the TV monitor when your selection runs 4th. This process is repeated for the rest of the day ubtil your wallet is empty or you win on the day. Obviously you wind up broke in the longrun.

Sound familiar gun punter???
:grin:

You're kidding yourself.
No matter whether someone is successful on the punt or not, its still gambling.
Even the people behind this site, admit that!

Strike rates change over time, during a given 6mth period your strike rate may be 45% (win) with an avg div of $3.50, over the next 6 mths drop to 35% with an avg div of $3.20.

Each time you place a bet, its still a gamble.

When someone buy some options or futures, they are not investing - they are speculating - whether its successful or not.

I can tell by your comments that you lose, by failing to admit what your actually doing.

Even great traders like Soros, lose money from time to time but he's not an investor like Buffet - he's a speculator who's very good at it.

Investing - is where you buy an asset, that you think will be worth more than what you paid for it in the future, and has potential for a revenue stream for several years - it doesn't have a time limit like 2 mins. Buying a horse for breeding is also speculative, but its investing, cause the asset (horse) has the potential for creating an ongoing revenue stream for several years.

If you had a system that worked over a period of time - you could call that an asset - but each time you punt on a horse - its still a gamble.

I know how to countn cards and play basic strategy at blackjack - but its still gambling - all that's happened is i have increased my odds of winning.
That's what a good betting method does - increase your odds of winning, but it ain't investing.

[Equine Investor]

gun punter you are entitled to your views, as is everyone on this forum. The logic in your arguement needs no comment - it defies it!

So if I invest in a breeding horse and it gets hit by a truck - that's gambling.

If I invest in a term deposit in the the bank at 3% and there is a recession and the bank goes belly up - that's gambling.

If I buy a house and it gets burnt down and my insurance company goes bankrupt and I lose the lot.- that's gambling too.

Me thinks if you get out of bed in the morning and stub your toe - that's gambling as well!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-30 14:56 ]</font>

Do you have a clue?
Certainly appears not to be so.

If a house burns down? What do you think the land is worth???

If a horse dies? fair dinkum ....A horse race is guaranteed to be over in a matter of mins, whereas a horse generally lives for several years - if it dies suddenly - that's bad luck.

.......

An asset is something that creates a revenue stream over a period of time. Given that investing is buying assets, how does a ticket create an ongoing revenue stream? - be it a winning ticket or a losing ticket.

Try and go to a bank and tell them you plan to buy $100,000 worth of assets - then say that these assets are betting tickets for horse races - gee I wonder if they'll lend you the money??? ....

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-05-30 21:05 ]</font>

[Reenster]

I agree with you Gun, but you guys are arguing over terms. I assume those of us who call gambling on horses "investing" do so because they believe acquiring knowledge about the relative chances of a horse to win a race and obtaining value from their bookmaker about that horse will give them the edge that allows their bank to increase over time (and so provide a revenue stream).

However, investing in shares is also a gamble. There's no rule that says if you buy shares you are guaranteed a revenue stream and certainly not a capital gain, even if you stick to blue chips (Telstra 2 subscribers will testify to that). Again, with the share market, you acquire knowledge and make an informed, educated decision as to which shares to buy and hopefully with that knowledge, increase your chances of making a gain. It's still a gamble, just much less of a gamble than horse racing.

You say potato, I say potahto, let's call the whole thing off.

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-05-30 15:23, gun punter wrote:

If a horse dies? fair dinkum you are dumb.
A horse race is guaranteed to be over in a matter of mins, whereas a horse generally lives for several years - if it dies suddenly - that's bad luck.

An asset is something that creates a revenue stream over a period of time. Given that investing is buying assets, how does a ticket create an ongoing revenue stream? - IQ of an ant.


Why did you even bother posting here gun punter?
I never attacked you calling you stupid etc.
You really need to grow up and learn the basic maths of investment...yes investment.
So you are saying that investment is over a few years and a horse race a couple of minutes-you really don't understand what it's all about do you?
I don't INVEST to win on the race or day as i said before...I invest to win over the year.
If you invest in BHP for example, and the share price goes down 1% on the day...do you sell your shares and say "I gambled and lost?" Probably you do but anyone with the IQ higher than "an ant" would not!
So too if I lose money on a race or races, I keep making further investments as I know in the longrun I will win. The only difference being you make a large one-off investment in a stock and I make many investments in horseracing.
By the way a ticket is not an asset...the system strike rate average dividend and overall investment and profit is the asset.
An asset is something that creates a revenue stream over a period of time....you just killed your own arguement!!!!!!

Go to a bank with shares in a speculative stock (which you call an asset) and see how far you get.
Now do you follow this???

[mr magic]

How can you people judge EI's ability on a dozen or so tips?
It shows a complete lack of understanding of how the game works.
EI has the guts to post his tips and introduce his jockeys/place system for all to share on this forum. On another thread I expressed huge misgivings on his place system but surely the bloke should be free to make postings without the lunatic fringe ripping in to him.
Criticism is important - smart people learn from it. Destructive and ill informed babblings from the likes of gun punter are a waste of the valuable resource that is this forum.
The forum beginning to grow in input and hopefully the flow on will be more intelligent posters. The "gun punters" can find somewhere else to go and not litter this forum.

[becareful]

Gun Punter and everyone else who has nothing constructive to say please p*** o** and leave the forums for those who want to engage in CONSTRUCTIVE comments or criticism.

Gun Punter - your whole argument is totally flawed because any "investment" is essentially a gamble. When you buy shares or an investment property or anything else you are gambling that the value is going to increase over time or that the promised income will be forthcoming. The only difference is in the level of risk and the associated level of return. Sure you can put your money in a term deposit and unless the banking system fails you will get a return but it will only be small. You can invest in shares and get a better return but higher risk of losing your money. If you have a really good racing system you can make returns that other "investors" can only dream of - but of course there is probably a higher risk. So every investment is a gamble.

BTW - your comment about a 1.5 minute race is completely missing the point - with a proper system your investment is just the initial betting pool you start with - the bets are just part of the system. Eg. I put $1500 in betting account in March - since then I have placed approx $14000 in bets and now have $4000 in the account. My "investment" in this case is the original $1500 - not the $14000.

[mr magic]

gun punter,
Strike rates must be coupled with average winning dividends before they can be analysed.
I would love to back one winner in every 11 if I got 20/1. Similarly I'd hate to get 8 out of 10 and average 1/20 odds.
It is entirely feasible that a punter who averages a 25% strike rate will encounter many 1/11 trots during his career. In fact, 1/31 is not out of the question.
The key is to have a bank which will ride out the storm.
As for your 18/21, well anyone who has read your posts will have a fair idea of the honesty of that statement.
Please leave this forum to sensible, realistic posters.





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: mr magic on 2002-05-30 21:10 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: mr magic on 2002-05-30 21:11 ]</font>

some bets were for a place, others e/w, some for a win.
but did achieve 18 divs out of 21.

I wasn't bragging, just illustrating how silly it is to call gambling investing, whether you have a "system" or not.
If someone makes $200k/year from punting that's great, but i wouldn't call them an investor - just a very good punter.

My posts had more good info then some others.

I challenge EI to put up his selections this friday and I'll put up mine. Let's see who's the better "gambler" (for 1 week anyway)

[becareful]

Gun punter - if I have a "system" that generates $200K/year consistantly year in-year out is that an asset? If so then surely putting a few thousand into a TAB account that uses the system to generate the income must be an investment. I agree (as does EI, I think) that each individual bet is a gamble but we are not talking about each bet here - we are talking about the long term income potential.

Personally I don't give a damn what you call what I do - based on the performance of my system so far that $1500 I "invested" (or "gambled" if you want) has certainly outperformed EVERY share/property investment I have made in the past. :grin:

PS. I would love to see your tips for this weekend - not that I will put any money on any of them - betting on other peoples tips without doing your own research is most definetly gambling!

[quapi]

This discussion has probably gone on long enough. I think it is just best to agree to differ.

[Equine Investor]

Friday's Tips...

Wodonga R1 Horse 1 Zoffiel

Wodonga R6 Horse 4 Rose Of Spartacus

Mt Gambier R2 Horse 4 Keepalante

Mt Gambier R5 (The Cup) Horse 6 Mighty Eel

Kilcoy R4 Horse 2 Motabro

Kilcoy R8 Horse 10 Formal Affair

Kilcoy R9 Horse 7 Kiitos Sbazeba Moi

Muswellbrook R5 Horse 3 Flying Crown

Muswellbrook R8 Horse 8 Shepherd's Lil

Canberra R6 Horse 2 Sammuka

Canberra R8 Horse 8 Codemus

[Equine Investor]

Wodonga R6 H4 Rose Of Spartacus is a scratching!

Brisb
r1 donnadane
r3 West Ward
r5 Lovely Jubly
r6 miss Bussell
r7 Pembleton
r8 Hey Pronto

syd
r3 Sweet Chloe
r4 Cariboo
r5 Ruember
r7 Stoway

Melb
r3 Speaker
r4 BADGER'S Wood
r5 King Wyndham
r7 Bunfight

Betting strategy
Odds on = no bet.
$2-3.50 for a win = 2W
Over $3.50 = 2P/1W

These selections are from a 'system' I'm trialing.


Gamble, Don't Invest

[Equine Investor]

gun punter,
I would appreciate it if you would start a new thread for your system.
Thankyou.

you're just upset cause you lost the argument.

Shouldn't take it all so seriously, as its only punting after all.

[Equine Investor]

Flying Crown won paying $19.30 (VicTAB)

:grin:

2/21
Strike Rate 9.52%
Average Price $10.70
Profit on level stakes @$1.00 = $0.40c
Outlay $21.00 Return $21.40 1.9% ROI

_________________
Invest - Don't Gamble!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-31 16:37 ]</font>

bank interest is higher than that.....

[Equine Investor]

If anyone can get 1.9% return on a few thousand dollars in 5 working days at a bank ....suggest you grab it!

Coupled with effective staking the results could be impressive.
_________________
Invest - Don't Gamble!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-31 17:25 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-31 17:27 ]</font>

[becareful]

Hmm, 1.9% per week, compounded weekly is a rough return of 266% per year. Gun Punter please, please, please let me know which bank you know that gives that return and I will happily give up this gambling/investing game for ever! I think you just lost all credibility with your investing argument with that comment!

Happy gambling/investing everyone :smile:

[munchumba1]

Invest - to use money to make an expected yield/profit

Gamble - to take greater risks to make profit than by safer means

[Equine Investor]

What can I say ?

Guess that post sums up what I thought all along.

That maths is not your strong point?
40c per week over 7 weeks - enough for one beer at some places.

Your shout..........

[Equine Investor]

The profits I have laid out are for $1.00 investment, surely even you recognise this is for ease of explanation and not the ACTUAL wager. Now I wait with eager anticipation on the outcome of your system!

_________________
Invest - Don't Gamble!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-31 20:33 ]</font>

If i make more than 40c, i'll try not to spend it all at once.

After paying 22c to log on the internet, you're 18c in front. 3 winning weeks in a row and you can buy a stamp, plus have a few cents change for lollies. ha ha ha.

[Equine Investor]

I will not reply to any further postings by you gun punter...this is getting ridiculous.

End Of Story!

[mr magic]

I will join the boycott EI - just when the forum was gaining momentum someone with the greatest misnomer in history comes along and sullies things.

Ignore him and he might go away. Otherwise, quapi - please do something.

[Equine Investor]

My Tips For Saturday

Cheltenham

R3 Horse 5 Enhancer

Belmont

R4 Horse 4 Country Born
R5 Horse 2 Aussie Strike
R6 Horse 3 Exit Lane

Sandown

R3 Horse 7 Arch Triumph
R4 Horse 5 Backstreet Boy
R5 Horse 1 Roktzar
R6 Horse 4 Froth And Bubble

Rosehill

R4 Horse 2 Bulletproof Billy
R6 Horse 9 El Rapido
R7 Horse 7 Special Orders

Eagle Farm

R1 Horse 1 Damigos
R2 Horse 10 Feed The Meter
R4 Horse 15 Canadian Time
R5 Horse 9 Chickens
R6 Horse 6 Palidamah
R7 Horse 11 Gold Class
R8 Horse 4 Viva La Vie

Plenty of Action.
:grin:

What a bunch of sooks....

What's wrong with stating facts like
1. Punting is gambling.
2. Compounding 1.8%/week into 266% pa is almost impossible, cause no punter is able to achieve 52 winning weeks in a row, betting their entire bank. Its hard enough to achieve 4 or 5 winning weeks in a row.


Gamble, don't invest.

PS: A bit of reality is what's needed in this forum and less dreaming.

If i get banned for stating facts, then maybe there's an opportunity to work for the ACB.

[quapi]

Noone is restricted for stating facts. Guests have their invitation to post removed if Forum Terms of Use are breached such as postings which involve "Abuse or unpleasantness".
Management.

[becareful]

Gun Punter - my final 2c worth before I join the boycott against you as well:

1. Nobody here has a problem with rational argument done in a constructive manner - comments like "are you sharing the same brain", "you have the IQ of an Ant" are not constructive criticism - they are abusive (PS. Quapi - I would have thought that this would have qualified as unpleastness at least!)
2. EI never said he was betting with $1 per race - if you read the other threads you would know he uses staking plans that go up to at $1800 per bet so your point about 40c profit is wrong but you keep persisting with it.
3. You state that returns go up and down but are condemning him based on 5 days worth of tips - maybe this was a bad week and he normally gets 20% return?

[Equine Investor]

O.K. Saturday's selections performed very badly. Some horses ran great races but just missed out. There was one scratching. Fear not, usually when this sort of result happens a swag of winners come in as this score is way below the average. As I say, no excuses and will continue to follow up on some of the unlucky runners.

Current Standings.
2/21
5.26% strike rate (well below average)
$10.70 Average price.
Loss at level stakes -$16.60
Only need 2 winners at the average price to hit the front again.

You mean 2/38 (17 from sat)

Another 17 and you'll go broke. Should have bought some 'real' investments.

[Numerator]

G'day Equine Investor, you mentioned that you'll be following up on some of the unlucky runners from your 17 non-winners Saturday. Which ones do you think were unlucky not to salute? Based on steward's reports? Videos? A dip in the all-ordinaries index? Bad karma? :grin:
Come on E.I., join the funsters and have some fun!
Good on you for persevering. I'm impressed!

[quapi]

[quote]
On 2002-06-01 09:00, becareful wrote:
Gun Punter - my final 2c worth before I join the boycott against you as well:

1.Nobody here has a problem with rational argument done in a constructive manner - comments like "are you sharing the same brain", "you have the IQ of an Ant" are not constructive criticism - they are abusive (PS. Quapi - I would have thought that this would have qualified as unpleastness at least!)
-------------------------------------------

At present we don't publicly announce who is restricted. Eg some scamsters come onto the forum and their first posting is a link to their website promising millions of dollars etc. Those persons are permanantly restricted.

Depending on the severity of the breach posters are initially told of their breach. Should it persist, varying restrictions are applied from a week to permanent.

The comments you mention are a clear breach of Forum Terms of Use and not welcome from anyone posting on this Forum.

Management.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-06-03 16:33 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Tips for Wednesday

MV R6 7 Le Thief

Belmont R1 5 True Roman
Belmont R2 1 Stormalive
Belmont R3 1 Orion Star
Belmont R4 5 How Novel
Belmont R6 2 Passa Pago
Belmont R8 4 Cargo

[Equine Investor]

Well, my selections were decimated by scratchings.
There were only three runners left.
True Roman and Passa Pago both ran second.
How Novel was unplaced.

2/41
4.87% Win Rate
$10.70 Average Price
Profit/Loss -$19.60 @$1 Win Level Stakes.

[Equine Investor]

If it pays 20/1 it'll be worth it.
:grin:

Quote from post on MARKET FIRMERS/DRIFTERS

"81% of all winners had a pre-race price above $4 and below $20"

If you're waiting for $20+ winners - long time b/t drinks.

I hope you back a winner soon, cause its getting painful to watch your strike rate getting decimated.

I hope you're paper trialing this method.

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-06-05 19:45, trend wrote:
Quote from post on MARKET FIRMERS/DRIFTERS

"81% of all winners had a pre-race price above $4 and below $20"

If you're waiting for $20+ winners - long time b/t drinks.



The profit lies in the other 19% of winners, not the 81%. Anything under say 10/1 is just replenishing the bank.

[Reenster]

Anyone who bags someone because they have two or three or even ten losing days is saying one thing loud and clear. They know NOTHING about successful or even break even punting.

Runs of outs are inevitable with any selection method or ratings system. The uneducated or mug punter will dismiss a method when a poor run occurs and blame everyone else but himself for not having the discipline, patience and faith to know that over the long term, things even out and every bad run comes to an end, if the ratings are reliable.

My recent run of outs wiped almost 50% off my bank. I didn't panic and give up, blaming my selection method and now after just 2 months I'm back near my record high.

EI doesn't have to post his selections here (I'm certainly more guarded and selfish and make no apologies for it) but his contributions, along with others on this forum provide a wealth of information. AND IT'S FREE!!! So to GP, Trend and others, take off the blinkers, please, or go find somewhere else to play.

Cheers

[quapi]

trend, a number of your postings have been deleted as taunting is unpleasant and a breach of Terms of Use.
Registration to post on this Forum is only accepted on the condition that Forum Terms of Use are followed.

15% of winners are below $4.
That leaves 4% above $20.
Good luck finding them every week.

What do you have a problem with Quapi?

People making some challenging statements or are you just sticking up for your OZmium collegue EI? Can't he defend himself with wit and intelligent comments, without you deleting anything that's not politically correct?

Now, there's nothing in that, which is unpleasant - unless you find criticism of any kind - unpleasant?

Me wonders, whether you know as much about punting as you make out - you reckon I don't know much. Well I would admit if I was struggling on the punt, rather than making excuses and saying - I'll win in the long term, cause I'm investing for the long haul.

Aiming for 4% of winners is not a winning strategy - bread and butter should be the $4-12 winners, the $20+ winners are icing on the cake.

I would not be suprised if this is deleted as well - if it is, it shows you have no credibility.

Anyone who is any good at anything, can handle constructive criticism, unless of course they are insecure about their own knowledge.

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-06-05 23:30, trend wrote:
15% of winners are below $4.
That leaves 4% above $20.
Good luck finding them every week.


That's the point trend, you don't have to find them every week. There are daily punters and longterm punters.


What do you have a problem with Quapi?

People making some challenging statements or are you just sticking up for your OZmium collegue EI?

Let it be known, I have no connection to Ozmium or Quapi whatsoever, however, I do contribute to these forums on a daily basis. The community is fantastic and Quapi is trying to keep it a place to learn and intelligently discuss various aspects of horseracing.


you reckon I don't know much. Well I would admit if I was struggling on the punt, rather than making excuses and saying - I'll win in the long term, cause I'm investing for the long haul.


Trend, I never said you didn't know much about the punt. However, when someone criticises my selections without knowing the investment plan behind it, surely I am entitled to defend myself.
Investing for the longterm is not an excuse -it was an explanation of my objective.


Aiming for 4% of winners is not a winning strategy - bread and butter should be the $4-12 winners, the $20+ winners are icing on the cake.


The 10/1+ winners are where the profits lay.

"80% of my profit comes from 20% of my winners"
Pareto.


Anyone who is any good at anything, can handle constructive criticism, unless of course they are insecure about their own knowledge.


I am not out to prove anything, it's all about sharing ideas and learning something new off other members. CONSTRUCTIVE criticism is always welcome, and I try and share some of my knowledge with others.

[quapi]

On 2002-06-05 23:30, trend wrote:
15% of winners are below $4.
That leaves 4% above $20.
Good luck finding them every week.

What do you have a problem with Quapi?

People making some challenging statements or are you just sticking up for your OZmium collegue EI? Can't he defend himself with wit and intelligent comments, without you deleting anything that's not politically correct?

Now, there's nothing in that, which is unpleasant - unless you find criticism of any kind - unpleasant?

Me wonders, whether you know as much about punting as you make out - you reckon I don't know much. Well I would admit if I was struggling on the punt, rather than making excuses and saying - I'll win in the long term, cause I'm investing for the long haul.

Aiming for 4% of winners is not a winning strategy - bread and butter should be the $4-12 winners, the $20+ winners are icing on the cake.

I would not be suprised if this is deleted as well - if it is, it shows you have no credibility.

Anyone who is any good at anything, can handle constructive criticism, unless of course they are insecure about their own knowledge.

-------------------------------------------
Reply:
1. There is absolutely no association whatsoever between EI (Equine Investor) and OZmium.

2. You have rejected the Forum Terms of Use:

"Can't he defend himself with wit and intelligent comments, without you deleting anything that's not politically correct?"

You will now need to find a Forum where your style of posting and the Terms of Use are compatible. They are not on this Forum.

3. We are not deleting your posting. It remains as an example to all of what is not acceptable on this Forum.

Management.







<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-06-06 11:38 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Hawkesbury Thursday..

Race 5 Horse 5 Optimizer

Race 8 Horse 14 Real Sassy