betting systems

[dokjan]

does anyone on this site know of a system know as the royal routine system.
not giving away my age but this was around in the 60's and saw a add in the melbourne truth paper about 7 years ago.
regards
dennis

[Bhagwan]

Yes, I`ve got it , it was given to me many moons ago by a man of great wisdom in a white robe sitting on a rock, while on a 6 day treck into the mountains of Tibet. I asked him ,"What great wisdon would he care to impart upon me."? He thought for a while & said "Bugger the horses, whats the point if a bloke cant get on " then through this racing plan at me.
So now, in the great tradition ,I`m going to through it onto you .
The routine is simply betting in a sequence of .
1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5,6,6,7,7,8,8,9,9,10,10 etc
Win loose or draw ,you keep going until you are in profit, then start again.

E.G. Cost of a run of 20 outs is $110. Normally you would need $20 payer or 19/1 to break even, at level stakes,betting $5.50 per bet, but with this plan, you would only need a $11 payer or 10/1 to break even, approx. half the odds anywhere in the sequence, to break even.

Mathamatically it works, but it comes down at the end of the day to ones ability to pick winners at half the odds you would normally have to pick, to break even at level stakes.

If you pick a bunch of winners equal to half the odds required to break even over a series of bets at level stakes ,you will have either broken even or end up in front, then you start again .
It recomends to back selections at 3/1+ also an idea of theirs ,was to back the 2nd favourite in the pre-post newspaper market.
You will find that its not a good idea to follow 2nd favs. in newspapers, they have a habit of having long runs of outs , 20+ outs in a row is common.

If one wanted to follow this staking plan ,which is sound in principle. You would need to find out your longest run of outs you have experienced then multiply that figure by 3.5 .Then you can work out what bank you need, so as to have a chance of being an on going winner at the punt.

[dokjan]

thanks for the reply but you got it all wrong. this was not a staking plan but a method to back winners. i know basically how it work's but was interested to know if anybody else out there has heard of it?
dennis

you've got it all wrong - that's funny!

winning and losing goes in streaks, therefore you would be better off increasing your bets after a win and decreasing after a loss if you feel a streak is going to happen. Otherwise bet level stakes.

One punter on racingandsports site reckons you should bet more on longer priced horses, just go each-way. The theory is if your going to risk more capital, then the reward should be greater. Example only, 4/1 horse maybe bet $10, 10/1 horse bet $20 e/w. 20/1 horse bet $30 e/w. He does point out that you should be very confident of a horses winning chances (as confident about the 20/1 hope as a 4/1 chance) though to bet.
There is merit in the madness. One 20/1 winner would pay for a lot of 4/1 losers using this staking plan.

[Equine Investor]

There are basic mathematical principles involved here.

It doesn't matter what odds your horse is at if you stake to win money. What matters is your strike rate. Odds only come into play when you consider the risk/reward ratio. $10 to win $200 or $100 to win $200. In preserving your bank, you try to lower your risk and increase your reward, but in the final analysis if your average strike rate isn't up to it...you won't win no matter what average price you can get.
When I do my form, I always make my selections without the prepost odds within reach. I am amazed how many horses I rate at say 3/1 start at 10/1 plus. This way odds never sway my judgement.

[erik]

does anyone on this site know of a system know as the royal routine system.
not giving away my age but this was around in the 60's and saw a add in the melbourne truth paper about 7 years ago.
regards
dennis
Hi Dokjan,
As a matter of fact I have been searching for the royal routine system for the past couple of days, do you have the details? I used it about 20years ago and it worked very well for me. I got my copy from Turf Monthly I think but then again it may have been the Melbourne Truth. It is based on the Handicappers choice (Top weight) and given the right conditions the Top weight of the field should be in the finish, and hopefully at a good price.It was the best system around then and I believe it still is, and it doesn't cost anything.
Erik

[Beagle]

G'day erik. Have a look at the Royal Ripsnorter post about a month ago. You will find all the details there.

[erik]

G'day erik. Have a look at the Royal Ripsnorter post about a month ago. You will find all the details there.
Thanks Beagle, but thats not the one I used 20 years ago, you don't look at tipsters at all, there's a lot of other rules that apply e.g. can't bet on maidens or 2 yr old races, etc. etc.

I know that its been around a long time.

Erik

[darkydog2002]

Have you ever come across 'George Grays Infallible racing system "

Its going back a few years.?

Cheers.
darky.

ps.Who was the author of the system your seeking.?

[erik]

Have you ever come across 'George Grays Infallible racing system "

Its going back a few years.?

Cheers.
darky.

ps.Who was the author of the system your seeking.?
G'day Darky
No I can't say that I have mate. I'm not sure who the author was, I used to use the royal routine system back in the 60's and then in the 80's.
I have a mate who is interested in having a go at the gallops and I mentioned the royal routine system to him. I'm looking at trying to find a copy of it.
Cheers
Erik

[darkydog2002]

I have a copy of the method that BEAGLE is talking about in the ROYAL RIPSNORTER thread.

Unfortunately Management doesn,t allow me to post my hotmail address but I would be more than happy to pass it on to you.

Cheers.
darky

[erik]

I have a copy of the method that BEAGLE is talking about in the ROYAL RIPSNORTER thread.

Unfortunately Management doesn,t allow me to post my hotmail address but I would be more than happy to pass it on to you.

Cheers.
darky
Thanks very much mate, I would appreciate it very much, how do we go about it over this site?
Cheers
Erik

[Beagle]

I have another one for you.It's called the "All Factors System" Has anyone heard of this one. I have just dragged it out of the dungeon and wonder if anyone has had a go at it. It is probably 20 years old at least. It was a little to restricted for me to try out when I was a lot younger and a fair bit more gullible

[redclawgaz]

Hi Dennis

I too am looking for the Royal Routine System.

I used this system in the mid 60's very successfully. I was an apprentice around 19 at the time and had built my bank from 5 pounds and was taking with me to the races up to 350 pounds (around half a years salary for a tradesman).

The Royal Routine I used was based on using multiple tipsters tips better than 3's and laying off long losing sequences to winning tipsters.

I can remember most of it and actually have it on excel to prove it, I am however missing the recommended initial staking levels and the calculations for the laying off of under performing tipsters.

If this is the system you're referring to then get in touch with me and we'll see what we can achieve.

Garry C

[partypooper]

Aw, cumon lads /gals we all know that the ONLY system that has stood the test of time is the one where you obtailn a license and consistantly make a book of around 115-118%, that's IT!

[midas]

Yes I remember the Royal Routine from 50(?) years ago

Obtain as many tipsters selections as possible (12 +)
Have a column for each one
Add a set amount to be won to each after each race - 50c or $1 or ?
Your target in each column is the required profit plus losses for that column
If some columns are having a losing run some of their target can be distributed among winning ones

You will usually be betting a few horses each race so the target amounts for each horse are added and bets placed according to odds

It was also reccommended that only horses at 2/1 ($3.00) or more be bet to reduce the outlays

I had fun with this in my mispent youth but bets can build up BEWARE

I don't think I would use it in this day and age

midas

[Pauls123]

I remember this system also, I managed to lay my hands on it sometime during the 70's (I had my first bet in 1969, still remember the bet). When I come by this system I showed it to a work colleague and a good mate of mine, whom was a mad punter. He used to attend every randwick meeting as he lived just down the road from there. He read the system and said to me, mate, if you were to try and work this system you'd need at least a team of about ten blokes working for you, all running around the betting ring with a clipboard full of races. You'd either get kicked off the course or arrested for making a public nuisance of yourself.

Ahhh, the good old days.

Paul

[Chrome Prince]

This is being sold on ebay by a well known peddlar, just renamed.

As a similar ratings method, there also used to be another little gem.

Get as many tipsters as possible.

3 points for a win selection
2 points for a second selection
1 point for a third selection.

Add up the total points for each runner.

Add this to the prepost price converted to chance of winning.

This gives you a new market.

Reframe the market and back the overs.

I don't think it has legs though.

[Brendon]

Tony Meany. Is he still around? My friend's dad used to go to the Saturday metro meetings each week and come back with $300. Never failed. This was late 70's, early 80's.

Sometimes he would be back by 1.00pm. Must have won on the first race.

His number one tipster that he used was Meany. On some days he would back the hot jockey. He would bet until he won 300. That was it. He was very disciplined. His son told me there was wads of cash all over the place, stuck up socks in bags, etc.

He would lose about 3 ir 4 times a year. One time he came back at about 6pm. Ray and me were having a beer in the lounge room. You could hear this booming angry voice from the kitchen "Who !@#$% left the cozy off the !@#$% teapot?!!!"

Apparently he lost big that day.

[crash]

Aw, cumon lads /gals we all know that the ONLY system that has stood the test of time is the one where you obtailn a license and consistantly make a book of around 115-118%, that's IT!

Amen to that Party!

[Try Try Again]

I believe PPM had an article in the Nov 2008 issue on the Royal Routine System. Maybe they can help?

[Chrome Prince]

Amen to that Party!

OR

Lay any odds on favourite in-play = $$$$$

:D

[crash]

Trouble is they are as rare as hen's teeth and usually only end up as odds-on after the jump! Can't see a Rolla coming from that method and statistically 50% of them win anyway. Lay or bet, maths 101 says 'hopeless' proposition.

[Chrome Prince]

Not if you follow bookmaker's prices
Not if you do it all around the world

Bookies buy their rollers from odds on favourites going down the gurgler.

Currently sitting on 48% lay success (52% of them win), but it's all about the odds you lay them at.

Seen quite a few in-play bets at ridiculous short prices get rolled in Australia.
Last weekend at least three horses traded at $1.30 (and shorter) and were rolled.

I know you like the longshot backmarkers, and there's probably more buzz and more money to made from it, but I get a buzz (and some cash) when an odds on favourite trades at half SP just because they all go mad in-play and one of your backmarkers spoils the party ;)

[crash]

Currently sitting on 48% lay success (52% of them win), but it's all about the odds you lay them at.



Please explain. How does 48% lay success at odds-on prices result in a profit? You would need better that 50% at odds-on profit to make a profit says maths 101. Isn't that right [?]

[Chrome Prince]

52 horses win out of 100

Average dividend of winner $1.58

Backing them is 52% Strike rate, so you lose 17.84 units every hundred runners

Ergo, 48% of them lose, so you make 17.84 units every hundred runners - laying.

However, that's at bookie's prices, once you let it go in-play....the world's your oyster because of the very high place strike rate and punter reactions.

[crash]

Geez, I'll never get my head around this laying business. Thanks for the knees-up Chrome.

[lomaca]

Ergo, 48% of them lose, so you make 17.84 units every hundred runners - laying.[/u]

However, that's at bookie's prices, once you let it go in-play....the world's your oyster because of the very high place strike rate and punter reactions.I will have to think about this CP, on face value it sounds right, but I'm not sure. It all depends on the odds you can get, I think.
Assuming that the market HAS to even out to 100% is not necessarily correct.

I very well may be wrong here, have to check it with some numbers.
Cheers

[Mark]

Several 1.01's have been beaten since we've had in-play, along with a myriad of other short quotes. I was lucky enough to jag 2 of the ultimate prizes in 1 week.

Often you can see 120% or more on the lay side......but good luck grabbing it.

[Chrome Prince]

I had a 1.03 beaten the other day, and the winner traded at 1000, but alas I didn't have that one.

I actually did a bit of research on the in-play situation a while back.
I wanted to see just how the market reacts and just how viable it was.

I imagined, you wouldn't get matched on the fallers, the unseated riders and those that came out sideways etc, so would laying below Betfair SP be profitable?

I considered all horses at first and ran it over the data.

The longer the price of the horse, the worse it was, the more you were laying winners.

However, one thing really stood out.

Horses that start odds on, including fallers, no hopers, and those that just didn't get a clean break (this percentage was negligible) was still profitable to lay below Betfair SP, providing you don't get greedy.

There were 820 horses that ended up odds on at Ladbrokes before the jump in the sample, that also traded at or below the final Ladbrokes price
460 of them won.
So a 56% win strike rate ( higher because of the UK jumps).

That's a 44% lay success on odds on favourites without including the ones that never traded at or below Ladbrokes final price.

The average dividend was $1.61 based on Ladbrokes prices

So that's a 9% POT laying them at those prices, but before commission.

It purely works because they have a very high place strike rate, and the percentage of unplaced horses, that did not trade lower at some point in the race, is tiny.

In fact it's profitable just above even money, where it is a clear cut sole favourite.

When going further out in the market, the further you go on price, the more you're laying winners.

I believe I have only lost 1% of the bookies premium when not getting matched on the one's that didn't trade lower, over a large set of races.
the 52 out of 100 are the last set this month on Aus and UK races combined, that I've covered.
Of the 820 in the sample, you'd have won 78.1 units before commission.

I allow for commission in my prices, but the bets are staggered.

I actuallly got the idea after reading the Betfair forum.

[Mark]

I meant our races only!

Would it be profitable to place lay bets at say roughly half SP?

[Chrome Prince]

Our races, half SP - no way, sorry.

Over time the shorter you lay below the pre off Betfair price, the more it's exactly breakeven (before the commission demons).

I have seen quite a few 1.20 and shorter get rolled, but it's the eye that catches them.

I'm sure some days it's profitable, but not in the longrun.

If a horse is at evens and you lay it at $1.50, you're going to cop a lot of winners - too many to the ratio of losers.

If you know something else, like the horse always breaks first or is a leader, then you'd have an extra edge. This is where intense form study comes in handy.

But for mine, if the horse is trading at $2.00 on Betfair and is $1.90 with the bookies, my lays go in at $1.90 and $1.85.

The only exception is if I know a leader has a bad habit of leading and getting swallowed up late, then I dabble in the $1.20 to $1.05 range.

But that area is just a bit of interest to keep things exciting.

If someone wanted to have a go at the longer priced horses, but still in the market, say the bookies have it at $4.50 and betfair have it at $5.50, I'd recommend laying at no shorter than $5.00.

But the shorties is where the profit is at, horse is sittiing just behind the bolter and second fave ready to pounce, they round the home turn, horse trades at $1.90 and $1.85 as the callers says "he's cantering behind the leaders and pulls out to make his run" only it's a long straight and he runs out of steam or gets blocked and runs a length second.

That's how I get matched usually.

[Chrome Prince]

Having said all that, I'd look for tracks and days where the backmarkers are flying home and try the $1.02 $1.05 or $1.10's.

But if you do it every race, you'll have some very bad days.

[Chrome Prince]

This is what last night looked like for me laying:

$1.90 LOST
$1.57 LOST
$1.80 WON
$1.62 LOST
$1.40 LOST
$1.50 LOST
$1.91 LOST
$1.67 WON
$1.80 WON
$1.62 WON
$1.80 WON

Outlay 11 units
Profit 2.31 units
21% POT laying (before commission)

[Jack]

The Royal Routine System was included in a publication titled "The Secrets of Turf Success" written by Jack O'Brien but as Party said you can not win by working to a 120% to 130% bookie or tote market. Even a 100% market would be challanging and you would end up taking odds on backing so many runners. If this system was successful there would not be a bookie left on the planet. Sadly I know of a person who was using this very system who had a 25% share in a very prosperous business things went great for a short time as he was winning heaps of money then the dreaded correction occured he had to sell his share of the business and even owed money to other people. So be wise.

[taelee19]

Yes, I`ve got it , it was given to me many moons ago by a man of great wisdom in a white robe sitting on a rock, while on a 6 day treck into the mountains of Tibet.
Hi Bhagwan, do you still have a copy of this book? I've been searching high and low for it as a gift for my father... If you still have it would you be interested in selling it or photocopying it for me? We have been looking for a copy of it for years now and have had absolutely no luck so if you do have it (or anyone else out there) I'd be very appreciative for a copy. Thanks

[Jack]

Hi Bhagwan, do you still have a copy of this book? I've been searching high and low for it as a gift for my father... If you still have it would you be interested in selling it or photocopying it for me? We have been looking for a copy of it for years now and have had absolutely no luck so if you do have it (or anyone else out there) I'd be very appreciative for a copy. ThanksHave a copy of this publication it was titled "The Secrets of Turf Success " written by Jack O"Brien if interested ring after 7.30 PM EST on 0403 76 99 55
Rgds

[taelee19]

Have a copy of this publication it was titled "The Secrets of Turf Success " written by Jack O"Brien if interested ring after 7.30 PM EST on 0403 xx xx xx
Rgds

Thanks Jack, will give you a call tomorrow after 7:30pm if that suits