NRL RD 5 PRE GAME WRAP

[Searay]

PANTHERS/STORM - Cant see anything but a storm victory especially with Alex chan back after suspension. If the panthers decide to start slow tonite, they will get touched up.If u back against the storm after last week, then u just dont know anything..............TIP- STORM

TIGERS/WARRIORS - Will tip the warriors to follow up on good victory last week. No confidence in that tip as the tigers have been impressive of late, but i just think that the warriors will outscore them in NZ.

DRAGONS/SEA EAGLES - Hard to pick, but i would actually like to know how u could pick the dragons. Probaly only on desperation stakes. You would think the sea eagles should outlast the saints pack. Kennedy, menzies to be the difference along with monahaghen. Saints internal problems will continue to go against them.......TIP-MANLY

SHARKS/COWBOYS - Sharks should be hard to beat at home, but they are due for an undisciplined performance. Once again how do u tip aganst the cowboys, and should prevail through their forwards solid work ethic and their back 3 getting them out of the danger zone........TIP......COWBOYS

BRONCOS/EELS - Nothing but a broncos victory here, they will be so embarrased about the debacle last week , they wont allow defeat here at home. Webcke, thorn ,civoneceva to steamroll the opposition quite comfortably....TIP.....BRONCOS

RABBITOHS/KNIGHTS - Will tip the knights here as they would have gained more last week than what the rabbitohs did. Looking for joey to put his stamp on things this week......They also should get the best of the crowd support from gosford.....TIP.......KNIGHTS

RAIDERS/ROOSTERS - mmmmm, Think the roosters better be careful here, i would have tipped the raiders had Ryan O,Hara been playing , but i think they lose too much go forward without him, and the rooster should be desperate enough. In saying that its a sit on the fence job i think....mmmmm, ah what the heck, lets go the raiders at home.......

In wrapping up people, the money is definatley with the broncos, i really cant find a way for them to get beat, and the 1.40 is great value.....GOOD LUCK

[Floydyboy]

yep well the storm are finally into favouritism ...I watched the match last week and they were pretty impressive .....
Mind you my money was on the Broncs with some start (thats history )I hope to recoup that with them this week

[goldmember]

every thing seems to point to the teams in form this week,but as seen so far this year anything is possible, and i think nearly every game COULD be go either way,only going to watch[hopefully] tonights game and see tomorrow what to bet on.

good luck everyone

[Sportz]

If u back against the storm after last week, then u just dont know anything


Okay. I just don't know anything. :)

[thefan]

hehe me too, home ground advantage does play a part...we might even see the sharks get home this week

[Floydyboy]

I dropped 50 in multis so only one bet for me now this weekend (except for the soccer) Im gunna lump on The Broncos and if they dont win well thatll do me for a few weeks

[Floydyboy]

Id like to know how the books arrived at the prices for this match ....they obviously knew something we didnt and dont worry the money came for the storm in the last 12 hrs .......and with all due respect to you fan the home side advantage aint worth twenty and even allowing for that ,on face value Penrith shouldnt have opened less than 2.10...But as I said If it looks too good to be true etc etc

[Sportz]

Floydyboy,

Bookmakers may be many things but dumb aint one of them. Most of the time when people say the bookies have their prices around the wrong way, they are proven to be right in the end. I had Penrith rated slightly in front tonight and the home ground advantage had a lot to do with that. Also there was the feeling that Penrith were due to turn in a big one with Priddis back. He is a BIG part of their team.

[Floydyboy]

I agree about the books as I said in a previous post they are not a benevolent society ...Ill grant you hometeam advantage and I think a real good foward can make a big difference (I think maybe Manly are a good example of that, Kennedy making a big difference ,Im a fan of him and Menzies ,whether Manly go on with it is yet to be seen ) Sitting here scratching my head Im thinking as much as these guys are trained up ,match fitness and include team cohesion in that probably play a large part .so the first 3or 4 rounds are probably are more guess work than the rest of the season and from a betting point of view I think the rep matches throw a bloody spanner in the works . BUT Im afraid Im with Searay when he said if youd have seen these 2 teams last week you couldnt possibly have backed penrith HOME OR AWAY OR ON MARS and I dont know how you do your ratings but you couldnt have have used this years form to have Penrith in front ....I dont know maybe Im just looking at things the wrong way ......My 50 worth of multis will pale into the shadows (cant spell insinifigance ) to those who backed the storm into favouritism though......anyway no offence meant Im just rather perplexed .....CARN THE BRONCOS

[Sportz]

BUT Im afraid Im with Searay when he said if youd have seen these 2 teams last week you couldnt possibly have backed penrith HOME OR AWAY OR ON MARS and I dont know how you do your ratings but you couldnt have have used this years form to have Penrith in front ....I dont know maybe Im just looking at things the wrong way ......My 50 worth of multis will pale into the shadows (cant spell insinifigance ) to those who backed the storm into favouritism though......anyway no offence meant Im just rather perplexed .....CARN THE BRONCOS

If someone had asked you to pick the winner of this match before the season started, who would you have picked? I would have picked Penrith with little hesitation and on my ratings, I would have had them winning by 10. Well, tonight I only had Penrith winning by 2, so you can see there's been an 8 point change in the ratings from Rd1 to Rd5. Penrith had gone down 2 points and Melbourne up 6 points.

As for last week's form, I don't think Penrith were disgraced in losing to Parra away and as for Melbourne's match, I pretty much disregarded that altogether. I mean, everything Melbourne touched turned to gold against a Broncos side that probably won't play that badly ever again. It was just like a training run for the Storm and I only raised their rating by 2 points after that game. It was never likely to be that easy away from Melbourne.

[Searay]

We all learnt one thing after that contest, the game needs two referees on th field without question. Because it is so quick, they just cant keep up to speed!! Somebody correct me if im wrong, but i counted 6 times in crucial parts that melbourne either should have earnt a penalty or been awarded a scrum feed. Absolutely diabolical decisions that cost the storm, who were clearly the better side victory. Dont be confused by that performance by the panthers, cause they are a low side.

I didnt have a bet, just being realistic. The man in the middle , im sure was payed by the penrith club to make it extremely hard for the storm to win. What a joke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CHEERS.......Could everyone not see that?

[Sportz]

You're kidding. If some 50-50 decisions went Penrith's way, then that is simply because they were playing AT Penrith in front of a parochial crowd and THAT'S PART OF WHAT THE HOME GROUND ADVANTAGE IS ALL ABOUT!!!!! Exactly why I say the home ground is a big factor and why Penrith were favourites for this match and not Melbourne.

[Searay]

Sportz, i am one person who believes that home crowds and home games gives team an unbelieveable advantage , and i bet and tip all the time accordingly. I have played the game for 22 years, and at grade level for 8, am an astute follower and statician. I will say it again, their were 6 crucial decisions last nite that turned the game, and yes they do happen and cannot be changed, all im stating is the fact that iF those decisions were made CORRECTLY, penrith were not going to win that game. In general play the storm were clearly better in attack, but not as effective as the panthers in defence.


CHEERS

[Floydyboy]

I didnt watch all the game .......but I saw some poor atttempted tackles by melb and one incident where slater clearly knocked the ball back to stop it going in to touch and it was called a knock on a few plays later penrith scored to go 12 ahead

[goldmember]

WHAT THE ?????, dont know what game you were watching searay, penrith were by far the better side, melbourne were pedestrian just like the broncos the week before, there were a few 50-50 calls but panthers had a fair try disallowed also,thought the storm would be better this year away from home,but looks like nothing has changed, they are still HOME TOWN HERO'S, nothing more,webster and king are turnstyles in defence, they have no idea !!

[goldmember]

Searay, if you believe that home crowds and home games give teams an unbelievable advantage and you bet and TIP ALL the TIME accordingly,how come you tipped the storm then ?


I am another person who knows absolutely nothing about league, i also tipped the Panthers.

[Searay]

Hey goldy boy, one wrong tip doesnt give u a lifetime indication of how i tip, and judging from your wrap on the game, i do understand that u dont really have a clue about the game....lol

[Sportz]

Bookmakers may be many things but dumb aint one of them. Most of the time when people say the bookies have their prices around the wrong way, they are proven to be right in the end.


Don't want to say I told you so, but....

Penrith 36 v Melbourne 16
St Geo/Ill 32 v Manly 6
Cronulla 38 v N.Qld 6

[steve baret]

I HAD MONEY ON MEL THOUGHT THEY'D WIN .BUT PENRITH WERE THE BETTER SIDE . MEL TRIED NEVER GAVE UP JUST WASN'T THEIR NIGHT . I THINK THEY WILL BE BETTER WHEN THEY GET DENNIS SCOTT BACK FROM INJURY .I DON'T THINK IT WAS THE REFS FAULT MEL LOST I THINK THE REFS CALLS EVENED OUT OVER THE NIGHT . WHAT A TOP GAME HIGH STANDARD OF FOOTY . THIS ROUND OF FOOTY IS KILLING ME COST ME PLENTY

[Floydyboy]

Ive been a memeber of this forum for a year or two now and
I really appreciate all the work you do on here Sportz.....But you would be one of the biggest past the post merchants Ive ever come across ...."Dont like to say I told you so"...GIVE ME A BREAK .....Thats schoolgirl stuff .......What Im saying is even though you might have tipped penrith and good luck to ya I didnt see any counter arguments from you regarding peoples comments about the seemingly outrages prices that were put up by the bookies until the final whistle was blown then you throw saints and cronulla into the equation for good measure .....Does it apply to the AFL as well brisbane and carlton did well didnt they ...........Sorry mate and Im not talkin through my kick (I squared up overnight and didnt bet today) but that sort of tripe drives me to destraction to the point where I really cant help but say something...sorry once again

[Sportz]

Floydyboy,

I'm sorry if I upset you.

If you actually look at the tipping comp, you'll see that I not only picked Penrith, but I picked St George and the Sharks as well. (disappointed in myself for tipping the Warriors, could have had 4 from 4) So you can see by that, that I thought all three of those teams were justified in being favourites. And from my comments before the round began, I would have thought it was quite obvious I was offering a word of warning to those that thought the prices were "outrageous".

I will NEVER be one of those that comes on here and says such and such a team WILL win or anyone that tips this team just doesn't know anything about Football. THAT'S the sort of thing that really annoys me. As for the Brisbane Lions, I think I was the only one that mentioned that I thought they would really struggle to beat the Swans tonight. For that I was roundly criticised for not being a true supporter.

I think I'll keep quiet from now on, before AND after the games. :o

[thefan]

The tips are hot for brisbane to bt Parra but for some reason this still could go the other way. The eels do have a good record against the broncos. The eels form is also unpredictable

[Floydyboy]

Yep well keep up the good work .....Im not the type to want an ongoing fued but in fact quite the opposite >Ive said my piece an my appologies are genuine so CARN THE BRONCOS ..........................

[Sportz]

BRONCOS/EELS - Nothing but a broncos victory here, they will be so embarrased about the debacle last week , they wont allow defeat here at home. Webcke, thorn ,civoneceva to steamroll the opposition quite comfortably....TIP.....BRONCOS


Well, credit where credit's due. You were absolutely spot on here. Obviously, they were totally embarassed by last week and they're going to make up for it in no uncertain terms this week.

[Sportz]

Boy, they must have been REALLY embarassed last week!!!

[thefan]

they did pray this week... The power of prayer!

[Searay]

For sure boys, but they really need to string 3-4 solid wins togethor to get a good gadge on them.......Need the knights and raiders to win for a good result!!

[Floydyboy]

Well thats the way I like to see my money go round