U. S. Kentucky Derby.. for those interested.

[TheAvenger]

Here is a link to the past performances of this years probable Kentucky Derby starters. (May 7)

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2005/pps041105.pdf


Regards,

Glenn

[Chuck]

thanks glenn, i remember we had a lot of fun with this last year. You have gone well in this in the past haven't you?

[Chuck]

I think i can narrow it down to the following:

High Limit
Consolidator
Sweet Catomine
Afleet Alex
Wilko
Blues and Royals
Sun King

[mecurial]

I must say that I know f**k all about all but one of those horses, but Blues and Royals absolutely SMOKED them at Dubai a couple of weeks ago. Will Sky televise this race?

[Mr ed]

Just reading that Bellamy Road's last start was a g1 win by 17.5 lengths, thats impressive, must be a huge show.

[william]

CONSOLIDATOR 12/1
Breeding: Storm Cat - Good Example (Fr) (Crystal Glitters)
Breeder: Pacelco SA
State: Kentucky
Owner: Robert B & Beverly J Lewis
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
2005 Record: 2 1-0-0 $159,000
2004 Record: 7 2-1-1 $480,260
Career Record: 9 3-1-1 $639,260

HIGH FLY 12/1
Breeding: Atticus - Verbasle (Slewpy)
Breeder: Live Oak Stud
State: Kentucky
Owner: Live Oak Plantation
Trainer: Nicholas Zito
Jockey: Jerry Bailey
2005 Record: 4 3-0-1 $871,500
2004 Record: 2 2-0-0 $25,800
Career Record: 6 5-0-1 $897,300

SUN KING 8/1
Breeding: Charismatic - Clever But Costly (Clever Trick)
Breeder: Cambridge Farm & James Daniel Conway
State: Kentucky
Owner: Tracy Farmer
Trainer: Nicholas Zito
Jockey: Edgar Prado
2005 Record: 2 2-0-0 $169,800
2004 Record: 4 1-0-2 $244,850
Career Record: 6 3-0-2 $414,650

BELLAMY ROAD 4/1
Breeding: Concerto - Hurry Home Hillary (Deputed Testamony)
Breeder: Dianne D. Cotter
State: Florida
Owner: Kinsman Stable
Trainer: Nicholas Zito
Jockey: Javier Castellano
2005 Record: 2 2-0-0 $471,000
2004 Record: 3 2-0-0 $140,400
Career Record: 5 4-0-0 $611,400

ROCKPORT HARBOR 15/1
Breeding: Unbridled's Song - Regal Miss Copelan (Copelan)
Breeder: Heiligbrodt Racing Stable & Taylor Made Farm Inc.
State: Kentucky
Owner: Fox Hill Farm
Trainer: John Servis
Jockey: Stewart Elliott
2005 Record: 1 0-1-0 $50,000
2004 Record: 4 4-0-0 $210,300
Career Record: 5 4-1-0 $260,300

LONG SHOT....Buzzards Bay :)

Hello Glenn...how does this lot measure up...!!!!

Regards
Will

[TheAvenger]

They look good, William. A few more prep races to run Saturday, and we'll have the whole picture. I will update the link after Saturday's Preps.

Regards,

Glenn

[Raw Instinct]

Just looking at the form I like the look of Noble Causeway he looks as though he has had some tough runs behind some of the better chances in the race with a better run in transit I think he has pretty good chance really.

[TheAvenger]

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2005/05kyderby.pdf

This is the final copy, complete with correct post positions. Good luck. I still like Afleet Alex.

Regards,

Glenn

[TheAvenger]

Here's my Kentucky Derby analysis as posted on a U.S. racing board that my cronies and I argue on: I'm sorry it's so long.

The serious business of finding a Kentucky Derby winner is a tough challenge; so many good horses. I love this race, when else can you get 50-1 on a horse who could beat anything on the grounds at your local racetrack? I'll give it a whirl here:

There are definite qualities, preparation, training, past performance and connections that are almost always present in any KD winner. Let's start handicapping the field the way I like to, by eliminating those who Derby historical stats say have No chance whatever, then reload, and separate the contenders. Since we're seeking the winner only, we will likely later pick up a few throwouts for the win for use in the exotics.

Derby fact #1: No horse since 1882 has won who has had no 2 year old experience. Bye, Greeley's Galaxy.

Derby fact #2: One horse with fewer than 3 prep races has won the Derby since 1949. Bye Coin Silver, High Limit, Flower Alley, Wilko, BELLAMY ROAD, Closing Argument. (that rule kicks ARSE, doesn't it?) Double eliminated, Greely's Galaxy.

Derby fact #3:No horse has won the Derby that had less than 5 career starts since 1918. Triple elimination : Greely's Galaxy, Double elimination for High Limit, Flower Alley.

Derby fact #4: No horse with more than 4 weeks off has won the Derby since 1955. Bye, Noble Causeway, High Fly. 4 others at exactly 28 days are "iffy", including, Yes, Bellamy road (haha)

Derby Fact #5: No horse running less than a triple digit Beyer figure, save 1, has won the Derby in 20 years. Bye, Sort It Out, Andromedia's Hero, Coin Silver (double ), Flower Alley(3x), Greater Good, Giacomo, Spanish Chestnut, Wilco (2x), Don't Get mad, Buzzard's Bay.


There's more, but we don't even need it. If I got your longshot, well, Don't Get Mad. Let's not be Going Wild; have a big shot of Buzzard's Bay and let's Sort it Out. It's for the Greater Good, whilst I make my Closing Argument. Roger, Wilco? You'd have to be from Greeley's Galaxy and be Andromeda's Hero to not High Fly and bet your High Limit, since protecting your Coin Silver is a Noble Causeway. HAHA.

Now, let's find that winner. Of the survivors, We have Sun King, Afleet Alex, Bandini and Going Wild. Nice, huh? Only 4 of 'em left to uh, Sort It Out. HAHA.

TA Derby rule#1: Look for 100+ Beyer efforts, at ANY distance, as a 2 y.o. Adios, Bandini, Sun King.

TA Derby rule #2 Look for 5 furlong work of 1:00 flat or less in the past 7 days prior to the race. (DoubleX) Sun King, Bandini.

TA Derby Rule #3 Must have a top 4 finish in last prep race, and it must be a major league prep race. Bye Going Wild.

So here we are, only perhaps 1/3 of the winning historical data factors sorted, (I know many more) and we have Afleet Alex winning the Roses on May 7. Like it or not, thats the conclusion of my fair, rational analysis of the race. Afleet Alex has had by far the best prep of any starter in the Derby. The only negative I can find is his lack of a seasoned, name rider, which I'll overlook because: 1. Rose has won his every mount on Afleet Alex, they seem to "fit" each other. 2. Being merely a presser, not a come-from-behind type pace runner, the talent of a major rider (to avoid traffic problems, etc.) is not likely a factor.

Exotic wise, I'd surely use the "Final Four", Afleet Alex on top with Sun King, Bandini and (believe it or not) Going Wild. Additional longshots I like are:Greeley's Galaxy, High Fly, and Wilko.

Use Bellamy Road if you like him, but I won't. He is very likely to "bounce"from his 120 Beyer figure and run up the track, to the sheer amazement of the chalk-eating public. I am advised by powerful sources that a 24 point Beyer increase between races is either the next Triple Crown Winner or, much more likely, a total non-factor due to 3 y.o.s with an over 15 Beyer improvement bouncing. The bigger the increase, the bigger the likelihood of failure. Only 18% run well after a 20-29 point Beyer improvement.


You are now advised; go to the mutual window Saturday and fill your boots with gold.

Regards,

TheAvenger






« Last Edit: Today at 22:14:41 by TheAvenger » Logged

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Absolutely nothing is absolutely free.

[TheAvenger]

#19, Going Wild, is a big priced longshot with a real chance (me and my mates think) to win.

Regards,

Glenn

[TheAvenger]

My pick ran 3rd, behind a pair of roughies. Check out these dividends:


Kentucky Derby Results

1 1/4 Miles. 3 Year Olds Stakes Purse: $2,399,600
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
10 Giacomo Smith M E 126 102.60 45.80 19.80
18 Closing Argument Velasquez C 126 70.00 24.80
12 Afleet Alex Rose J 126 4.60
Times in 5ths: :221 :451 1:092 1:354 2:023
Times in 100ths: :22.28 :45.38 1:09.59 1:35.88 2:02.75

Also ran: Don't Get Mad, Buzzards Bay, Wilko, Bellamy Road, Andromeda's Hero, Flower Alley, High Fly, Greeley's Galaxy, Coin Silver, Greater Good, Noble Causeway, Sun King, Spanish Chestnut, Sort It Out, Going Wild, Bandini and High Limit
Winning Trainer: Shirreffs John - Owner: Moss, Mr. and Mrs. Jerome S.
$2 Exacta (10-18) Paid $9,814.80
$2 Trifecta (10-18-12) Paid $133,134.80
$1 Superfecta (10-18-12-17) Paid $864,253.50
$2 Pick 3 (8-9-10) 3 Correct Paid $21,335.20 Pick 3 Pool $842,878

$2 Pick 4 (1-8-9-10) 4 Correct Paid $164,168.60 Pick 4 Pool $2,229,451

$2 Pick 6 (5-5/6-1-8-9-10) 5 Correct Paid $11,228.20 Pick 6 Pool $776,278 Carryover Pool $471,588

$2 Daily Double (9-10) Paid $1,973.40 Daily Double Pool $670,023

$2 Daily Double (OAKS/DERBY - 5-10) Paid $595.20 Daily Double Pool $1,687,862

$2 Future Wager (POOL 3 - 10) Paid $103.60
$2 Future Wager (POOL 2 - 8) Paid $54.20
$2 Future Wager (POOL 1 - 7) Paid $52.00

[bigmac]

RESULTS:
1st Giacomo --- 102.60 45.80 19.80
2nd Closing Argument - 70.00 24.80
3rd Afleet Alex --------------- 4.60

Off at 6:11 Start Good for all . Won Driving.
Time, :22 1/5, ~ :45 1/5, ~ 1:09 2/5, ~ 1:35 4/5, ~ 2:02 3/5,
Track: Fast.

$2 Exacta 10-18 Paid $9,814.80
$2 Trifecta 10-18-12 Paid $133,134.80
$1 Superfecta 10-18-12-17 Paid $864,253.50

4th Don't Get Mad
5th Buzzards Bay
6th Wilko
7th Bellamy Road
8th Andromeda's Hero
9th Flower Alley
10th High Fly
11th Greeley's Galaxy
12th Coin Silver
13th Greater Good
14th Noble Causeway
15th Sun King
16th Spanish Chestnut
17th Sort It Out
18th Going Wild
19th Bandini
20th High Limit

CHARTS: http://www.drf.com/charts/07/cCD07.html#10

SEE THE REPLAY: http://msnbc.msn.com/ID/7773236

May your next wager be a winning one!
Dell Yount
UpInClass Racing Forum (USA)
www.upinclass.com

[brave chief]

My first impression on watching the replay is that Giacomo got lucky.

They ran the first 1200m in 1:09.59, so Bellamy Road's effort to stalk the pace 4 deep with no cover seems full of merit. His win at Aqueduct was outstanding and he is the real deal. As with any pacesetter, he'll perform much better when not pressured.

The roughie Closing Argument ran a bottler too I thought. He tracked Bellamy Road 4 deep as well, though at least he got some cover. But his effort to hit the lead and only get nailed by the winner late was great for a 70/1 shot.