Kitchy's Round 4 Tips.

[Kitch]

Kangaroos V Collingwood

(Collingwood). Have had the wood over North over several years. North love to be the underdogs and it doesn't sit right with them. Collingwood high in confidence from their win against Carlton.

Hawthorn V Brisbane

(Brisbane). They are playing Hawthorn. The fact that the game is in Melbourne will have no bearing on this lop-sided affair.

West Coast V Western Bulldogs

(Western Bulldogs). My roughy. West Coast are nothing special in my opinion. Bulldogs, when firing, play a good attacking brand of football and their gameplan is well suited to the largish Subiaco. Look for an upset here.

Geelong V Essendon

(Geelong.) They have players out but Essendon are a definite slider this year and to only prevail against the Hawks by 2 points was somewhat of a farce. Easy Geelong win.

Port Adelaide V Carlton

(Port Adelaide.) People have been writing them off, yet Port are well known for their slow starts. And after this week's game they will be 2-2, probably in the eight and ready to get into gear. Will come out firing as a reply to the embarassment theyr were served at the hands of the Crows in round 3. Probably the worst time for someone to be playing the Power.

Sydney V Adelaide

(Adelaide.) Don't know how many people here caught the showdown but they were playing some amazing footy against the Power, even without their first tier players firing. Mcleod, Edwards, Goodwin etc did not have much impact on the game and they still won by 68 pts. They were also missing their best defender in Ben Hart. Will run over sydney in the last half of Sunday's game partly due to the fact that Sydney worked over-overtime in the last quarter of their emphatic six point win over the Lions at the Gabba.

Richmond V Fremantle

(Fremantle.) Richmond are 2-1. They only have this record because they have played lowlights, Hawthorn and Bulldogs in consecutive weeks. Fremantle are a good team and should come away with the win, although it might not be a very convincing one.

St Kilda V Melbourne.

(St Kilda.) I am not sure whether Melbourne are the real deal this year or not. St Kilda are due to fire and this should be a cracker of a game. Saints to win for mine, they have the class and the talent just have to use it now.

Anyway, good luck all!

Kitch

[Sportz]

Kangaroos V Collingwood
North hate to be the underdogs and it doesn't sit right with them.

I think you mean they love to be the underdogs and hate to be the favourites???

[Kitch]

post edited ;)

[mug punta]

My tips for round 4

COLLINGWOOD to defeat kangaroos
BRISBANE to defeat hawthorn
WEST COAST to defeat western bulldogs
GEELONG to defeat essendon
PORT to defeat carlton
SYDNEY to defeat adelaide
FREMANTLE to defeat richmond
MELBOURNE to defeat St.Kilda

My bets for the round will be decided after I see the final team lists but Im very confident in this order on GEELONG, WEST COAST and PORT POWER.

Geelong will pole axe my own bombers.
West Coast will towell the Doggies
Port will bounce back against the Blues.

Also, as a final aside after the Dees play the saints this week I will be getting on the Saints to win the flag. They are currently $9 in most markets and if they get beat this week I have no doubt I will be able to procure double figure odds.
I am also feeling really confident that the only three that can take it out are Port, Brisbane and the Saints.

[Sportz]

I sure hope you're correct with that last comment. :o

[mug punta]

Who else is there

WEST COAST- No hope, we saw against the crows that they have NO FORWARD LINE!!

FREMANTLE- Good midfield, no doubt, pretty solid defense, not enough big key forwards. Medhurst and Farmer to win you a flag in Melbourne. NO!

MELBOURNE- The smoky, look even all over the field and have added some midfield grunt and there players are a lot stronger this year. Still some queries over their defense. Could win it, but theres no way known im backing them at $6 at this stage of the year.

SYDNEY- On their day as good as anyone, but, can they play 4 weeks of hard finals at that level. If Roos changes his defensive coaching tactics I would rate them much more highly. This weekend's game will give us a clue as to where they are at.

GEELONG- They have a go, but, it appears Ben Graham has left a gaping hole in their forward line. They are still some outside hope though if they can get the passion they played with last year back.

NORTH- NO

COLL, ESS, BULLIES, HAWKS, CROWS, CARL, RICH

All 150-1 or better

[Rock Steady]

Richmond the best value in Round 4 by a mile. $2.50 seems massive. I have also taken +11.5 at $1.90.
Fremantle coming off two gut-busting weeks. A trip to Tasmania on a wet ground and a heartbreaking loss by one point where they gave their all. They then had to travel back to Perth for a local derby (take no prisoners match). If you saw that game they led by a couple of goals and ran out of puff in the last quarter. They now have to travel back to Melbourne where they do not play well at the best of times.
Remember that football players are not machines.
Richmond are not a good side but at $2.50 they will do me.

[mug punta]

If it stays wet you have a great chance.
If it becomes dry I think Freo will win easily.

[Rock Steady]

Despite the fatigue factor????
I can think of better conveyances for one's money at $1.75 than Fremantle away from home and fatigued.

[moeee]

(Adelaide.) Don't know how many people here caught the showdown but they were playing some amazing footy against the Power, even without their first tier players firing. Mcleod, Edwards, Goodwin etc did not have much impact on the game and they still won by 68 pts.

Those 3 players you mention were the 3 best on the ground and probably the 3 biggest possession getters!
Maybe you got confused and watched the Western Derby showdown by mistake!

[Sportz]

Ricciuto 27 posessions, Goodwin & Edwards equal 2nd with 24 and McLeod equal 7th with 21.

Only watched the first quarter and Adelaide only led by 13 points at Quarter time, but you could tell that a big win was on the cards. Adelaide was just outplaying Port all round the ground. I was amazed at the difference between the two teams given that these matches are almost always close.

[mug punta]

Despite the fatigue factor????
I can think of better conveyances for one's money at $1.75 than Fremantle away from home and fatigued.


How do you KNOW they are fatigued??
They may be tired, they may not. I suggest don't base your betting around factors like that especially when Richmond are tripe.
If the weather fines up I reckon you'll be wishing you hadn't of unleashed on the tigers.

[marko]

Kangaroos V Collingwood



West Coast V Western Bulldogs

(Western Bulldogs). My roughy. West Coast are nothing special in my opinion. .

Richmond V Fremantle

(Fremantle.)Fremantle are a good team and should come away with the win, although it might not be a very convincing one.



Kitch



This I'm afraid makes no sense to me at all.If FREO finish above WEST COAST this year I'll give up footy tipping FOREVER

[moeee]

This I'm afraid makes no sense to me at all.If FREO finish above WEST COAST this year I'll give up footy tipping FOREVER

I don't think he is saying that,but he did say that West Coast are nothing special.
Well if the Weagles don't win by over 10 goals I'll stop bagging ridiculous statements!

[moeee]

How do you KNOW they are fatigued??
They may be tired, they may not. I suggest don't base your betting around factors like that especially when Richmond are tripe.


I thought Rock Steady put up a pretty good argument regarding as to why he suggested fatigue.
Sorry Mugsy but I think youmight have been in the sun too long.
In fact,I don't think you will get double figures the Saints even.
Why?.Coz I think they might run those Demons a mighty big scare!
BOO!!

[marko]

Why ? Is Mrs Riewoldt playing?

[Rock Steady]

Mug punta,
I do not need any suggestions on how to bet AFL. I pointed out quite clearly the reasons why I think Fremantle will struggle in this coming game. I also pointed out that I concede that Richmond are not a good side. I am just saying there are far better conveyances for your money than Fremantle AWAY from Perth coming off a tough Tasmanian trip and a gut-busting local derby and now having to travel interstate again than to be taking odds on.
If you don't believe that fatigue is a factor in AFL and that players are machines, then I have to agree to disagree.Fremantle may well win this game but at $2.50 Richmond has got me as well as the points spread and Supremacy plays as follows:

Bet Pinnacle Sports Richmond $600 @ $2.50
Bet GlobalSportsBet Richmond $600 @ $1.90 (+11.5)
Bet SportsAcumen Richmond $50 SUPREMACY @ 9 points.

Someone else seems to agree with me as the Supremacy line has shortened into 6.

[moeee]

Oh!.
One more thing Rock Steady!
Even though I believe you stated your case well,I believe that Fremantle will in fact give the Tigers a bath!
Just like to remind you of how Richmond went last year and that not a lot has changed since then.

[Rock Steady]

moeee,
You will be probably be very right. Plenty agree with you - that's why Fremantle are favourites. I just like to look for matches where I think the dog is overpriced.
I KNOW Richmond are a poor side but I also know Fremantles MCG record is 4-15 and I think the last two weeks will catch up with them. That is why I have invested $1250 in various forms on the Tigers. The SUPREMACY bet is interesting as I could win a motza ir Richmond win easily. Every goal they win by is worth $300 by taking a $50 SUPREMACY bet.

[Sportz]

Someone else seems to agree with me as the Supremacy line has shortened into 6.

What is this "Supremacy" thing? I couldn't quite understand it. I suppose it explains it on the website, but I must admit that I couldn't be bothered looking for it.

[Sportz]

Ohhh, you beat me to it in your last post. Is it sort of like spread betting then?

[Rock Steady]

Index betting at so many dollars per point.

For example, I have taken Supremacy 9 points Richmond at $50 per point.

If Richmond lose by 9 points I am square.

For every point that Richmond better that, then I win $50 per point. eg Richmond win the game by 20 points I win (20+9) * $50 equals $1450.

If Fremantle win by 20 points, I lose (20-9)*$50 = $550.

[Rock Steady]

Supremacy betting is highly leveraged both ways. You can win or lose a lot of money.

I like to back dogs at the Supremacy line when I think they can win the match without the start. That way I can get a decent result.

Last year in Round 4 was a good example of a Supremacy bet that went the right way for me. I backed Melbourne at Supremacy 15 points @ $50 to beat Port Adelaide at the MCG.
Melbourne won the match by 53 points so the Supremacy collect was (15+53)*$50 equals $3400. Mind you I have been wrong and got beaten by 60 when only getting 8 points Supremacy there fore I lose 52 times my Supremacy stake.
This form of betting has been around since at least 1979 when I started betting on VFL as it was known then. I'm surprised more people don't use it - it is HUGE in the USA. Back in 1979 you had to go through your local underground agent though but you always got paid.

[Sportz]

Index betting at so many dollars per point.

For example, I have taken Supremacy 9 points Richmond at $50 per point.

If Richmond lose by 9 points I am square.

For every point that Richmond better that, then I win $50 per point. eg Richmond win the game by 20 points I win (20+9) * $50 equals $1450.

If Fremantle win by 20 points, I lose (20-9)*$50 = $550.

Ohhh, it's that last line which shows why I don't think I'd ever try that type of bet. Certainly not for more than just a couple of dollars anyway. :o

[Rock Steady]

Hey Sportz,
You gotta take the good with the bad so long as you are in front at the end of the season - that's all that matters.
For Supremacy bets I rarely bet more than $50 per point. The maximum you can win or lose is around $5000 by betting at $50 per point. You can employ a Stop/Loss point as well. You can say for example, I want the bet to cease when I'm losing 100 points. That way, you know what your maximum exposure is and you can set your working capital appropriately.
I start each season with seperate banks for Win betting, Start betting and Supremacy betting. The Supremacy bank starts at $15K so I can withstand three consequtive 100 point hidings before I'm out of play. It hasn't happened yet.

[Rock Steady]

Only other plays for me this weekend are:

Hawthorn +23 Index with GlobalSportsbet $30 per point.
Hawthorn +25.5 Line Bet GlobalSportsbet $300 @ $1.95 "Mad Friday" Line.

My model rates Hawthorn a 31% winning probability so there is a 69% chance that Brisbane will win but the value at those computations lies with the Hawks.

Geelong $1.432 WIN ONLY with Pinnacle $1200 to collect $1718.

Geelong rated a 75% ($1.33) winning chance so a win bet is required at $1.43
I never give start away so will not participate in the Supremacy or Line bets.

Good luck to everyone.

[Sportz]

I never give start away so will not participate in the Supremacy or Line bets.


Good idea. Neither do I. I will certainly back favourites to win, but I won't back them at the line conceding a start. I think I must be a bit like you in that regard. I prefer to look for underdogs which I believe have a genuine show of winning and then back them with the start.

[mug punta]

Sportz, I used to bet a lot on the index but you can get burnt.
One thing the bookies will do is cap it for you if you wish.
So, you could say cap it to win a maximum of $200 and a maximum loss of $200.
That is good for the heart, but, the adrenalin associated with index betting is pretty exciting.

[mug punta]

Rocksteady; Fremantle may well win this game but at $2.50 Richmond has got me as well as the points spread and Supremacy plays as follows:

RICHMOND is never a good bet at $2.50 and I don't care who they are playing.
Of course, the players aren't machines but if you match the two teams on paper I can't see Richmond getting near 'em.
You simply seem convinced they are fatigued. It's only round 4 and all the teams have the best fitness advisors to work around such things and try and ensure the players are ready for game day.
If the tiges prevail I will dip my cap and congratulate you on some great picking, but, I just reckon it's a real long shot.

If i was picking a roughie the Pies at $2.40 would appear better value to me.

[moeee]

moeee,
I KNOW Richmond are a poor side but I also know Fremantles MCG record is 4-15 and I think the last two weeks will catch up with them.

Either Im'm mistaken or someone lied,but I heard the Dockers won their last 3 at the M.C.G.
Good Luck regardless.I reckon you need it more than me doggie man!
Thank GOD for footy or I'd be skint.

[Rock Steady]

Fremantle's second last match at the MCG resulted in a 1 point loss to the Kangaroos in Round 19 2003.
Their record at the MCG is 4 wins and 15 losses.

[Rock Steady]

Approaching three quarter time in Hawks v Lions and I'm only about 65 points in front with the index bet and start bet!!! I just wonder if some of you guys who give away big starts actually watch the games. Remember football teams are not machines.

[Rock Steady]

LIONS v HAWKS

I gotta say that was the easiest $2,355 I think I've won on a football match for a while - NEVER IN DOUBT.


Keep looking for the value.

[Sportz]

Exactly. Well done Rock Steady. I must say, it makes my $30 bet on Hawthorn (+25.5) look very piddly indeed. :o

Perhaps I should look at this Supremacy thing but I think I'm just too cautious.

[Rock Steady]

Thanks Sportz.
The supremacy bet offers leverage BOTH ways as i said. You can lose plenty if your wrong but what I would advise is to bet a percentage of the bank. Operate in a professional manner.
I learnt a long,long time ago to NEVER EVER give away start on football matches. Even if the favourites are a long way in front deep into the second half, they can ease up and all of a sudden your "give away start bet" is in trouble. The football team doesn't care if you've lost your bet! So long as they win the match, they're happy.
And another thing I mentioned on the greyhound threads a while back:
Watch videos! Actually watch ALL the matches that you can. The Lions "form" was not that solid and Hawthorn's was not as bad as it looked on paper.

[Floydyboy]

nope not for me but good on Rock and may your success continue .....

[Rock Steady]

For those who don't want to put the work in themselves and are serious about winning on AFL I would suggest you subscribe to a credible football ratings supplier. I'm not sure about the one on this site but there is one on another site that has made money for a few years now. It only costs about $1000 for the season. At least that way you will backing "value" plays and you give yourself a chance.
I am in partnership with another fellow and we do our own ratings in the form of winning probabilities.

"Value" does not necessarily mean $2.00+ or "outsider". Value is when the price obtainable is greater than your rated price. A side can be value at $1.40 if the rated price is $1.25 etc.

[Rock Steady]

Floydyboy,
What's "not for you"?

[Floydyboy]

Index betting

[Rock Steady]

It seems as though I'm not on my own in cleaning up on the Hawks. I have just read about the happy punters over at sportpunter's forum who have had a bonanza.
I'm wondering if the Smartgambler AFL man also cleaned up? Anyone subscribe?

[Floydyboy]

wheres that forum rocksteady i wouldnt mind a Sqiz,......by the way I wasnt hangn s**t on ya methods before ..Its just not for me ....I dont have the brains or balls to bet that way

[Rock Steady]

Fair enough Floydyboy. Each to his own. I genuinely want to see punters win off the bookies. Some of the comments by other posters on this site indicate to me that perhaps they are just mug punters and happy to be that - hobby punters if you like. Nothing wrong with that - horses for courses.
Check out the other site. I don't know if I'm allowed to specifically give you the site on this forum but google "Sportpunter" and you'll find it.

[Floydyboy]

Ill put my hand up to that ....but I do it for enjoyment and I really spend very little these days because I have my share of wins so I consider it cheap entertainment..... in time I hope to make a bit more money out of it but I dont confuse my ambitions with my capabilities...... I only have to work 3 days a week so Im not going to jeopardise that for the sake of the punt if it came to that Id give the punt away Im having a rest at the moment because i was becoming a bit disallusioned with it all ..but youll find that a good percentage of people on here are doing it for entertainment value cos theyre not making a living out of it needless to say Im always willing to listen to those who have at least half a clue as to what theyre doing

[Rock Steady]

Floydyboy,
Did you have any luck with that google search?
He really knows his stuff. I do my own AFL ratings but often come up with similar value plays as Jonothan. A mate of mine subscribes to the AFL, Baseball and Tennis and last year made $85K with a start bank of $30K.
No bulldust - I've witnessed his bet sheets first hand so the stats that they give you on the web site are fair dinkum.
Now even for a hobby/entertainment punter who started with say $2000 - if he could turn $2000 into $6,000 in a year I would say that's a lot of entertainment and a nice profit to boot. It's always more entertaining when you win I reckon.

[Floydyboy]

yep i found it thanks Ive been there before and Im looking for something along those lines I dont consider the outlay a big deal even if you could only recoup that cost ..........Im not going to jump in just yet ....Im doing a bit of watching at the moment Im in no rush there will be allways something to bet on tomorrow the next day and forever more and personally I dont think its wise to bet large amounts for probably the first say five weeks of the season soccer league union or afl because of inconsistant results ...there again in saying that if your confident enough in your own ratings its a bloody good time to catch the books with their pants down

[Rock Steady]

Only other plays for me this weekend are:

Hawthorn +23 Index with GlobalSportsbet $30 per point.
Hawthorn +25.5 Line Bet GlobalSportsbet $300 @ $1.95 "Mad Friday" Line.

My model rates Hawthorn a 31% winning probability so there is a 69% chance that Brisbane will win but the value at those computations lies with the Hawks.

Geelong $1.432 WIN ONLY with Pinnacle $1200 to collect $1718.

Geelong rated a 75% ($1.33) winning chance so a win bet is required at $1.43
I never give start away so will not participate in the Supremacy or Line bets.

Good luck to everyone.

Hawthorn + $2,355
Geelong + $518

Profit so far for Round 4 = $2,873

[Rock Steady]

Oh!.
One more thing Rock Steady!
Even though I believe you stated your case well,I believe that Fremantle will in fact give the Tigers a bath!
Just like to remind you of how Richmond went last year and that not a lot has changed since then.

moeee,
I see you are still in fine form. It was a bath but not the one you wanted.

[Rock Steady]

Mug punta,
I do not need any suggestions on how to bet AFL. I pointed out quite clearly the reasons why I think Fremantle will struggle in this coming game. I also pointed out that I concede that Richmond are not a good side. I am just saying there are far better conveyances for your money than Fremantle AWAY from Perth coming off a tough Tasmanian trip and a gut-busting local derby and now having to travel interstate again than to be taking odds on.
If you don't believe that fatigue is a factor in AFL and that players are machines, then I have to agree to disagree.Fremantle may well win this game but at $2.50 Richmond has got me as well as the points spread and Supremacy plays as follows:

Bet Pinnacle Sports Richmond $600 @ $2.50
Bet GlobalSportsBet Richmond $600 @ $1.90 (+11.5)
Bet SportsAcumen Richmond $50 SUPREMACY @ 9 points.

Someone else seems to agree with me as the Supremacy line has shortened into 6.

$4290 just jumped in via Richmond - I'll get blasted for being a smart arse but it's the old tall poppy syndrome. Just over $7100 all up from the three "value" plays I gave out.

[rabbitz]

Oh!.
One more thing Rock Steady!
Even though I believe you stated your case well,I believe that Fremantle will in fact give the Tigers a bath!
Just like to remind you of how Richmond went last year and that not a lot has changed since then.

Someone forgot to put the plug in,he he he ho ho ho ha ha

[marko]

No not a lot has changed because Freo is STILL the most unreliable team in the AFL and should really take a good look at themselves .I mean they got a great squad ......................of shortarses

[Rock Steady]

The first bloke that has got to go is Chris Connelly - and then a few others after him.

[Rock Steady]

LIONS v HAWKS

I gotta say that was the easiest $2,355 I think I've won on a football match for a while - NEVER IN DOUBT.


Keep looking for the value.

Almost as easy as Richmond today.

[marko]

Hey Rock,Iadmire your gambling ability however I cant help thinking that you fell off your bike and got up yourself

I am interested to see how you perform in the following weeks and if you are that good I might mirror your bets with a substantial less amount of course because I am not what would you say ...........ok a poor bastard

I am quite often right with my predictions but always wrong in my execution of bets.Well more often than not anyway

[Rock Steady]

Hey Rock,Iadmire your gambling ability however I cant help thinking that you fell off your bike and got up yourself

I am interested to see how you perform in the following weeks and if you are that good I might mirror your bets with a substantial less amount of course because I am not what would you say ...........ok a poor bastard

I am quite often right with my predictions but always wrong in my execution of bets.Well more often than not anyway

I'll pay that one. I like your style. I just had to have a go at mug punta. Mate, if you start a thread entitled " BET OF THE YEAR", you deserve to be bagged. Reading through some of the posts on this forum convinces me that collectively they haven't got a clue. I'm referring to mug punta (ain't that an appropriate name), Floydyboy and Betsy. I was going to give Betsy the benefit of the doubt after he showed some commonsense on the ATP thread but comments like "on ya bike" swayed me the other way.
Nothing wrong with being a poor bastard so long as you don't bag the "other bastards" that have got a quid. I've met a few in my time that want to bag people that have either got more money or more intelligence or both. It's called the "tall poppy" syndrome that Aussies are known for.

On the other point in your thread: Allocate a bank and bet to a certain percentage of that bank. KISS principle applies. KEEP IT SIMPLE......

[marko]

Point taken Rock but I strongly believe it takes money to win money the bigger the bet the bigger the win.You must have a decent bank to cover your losing runs .I might have $30 in my tab account and it will usually go up and down all day untill inevitably I give it back and sometimes I am logged in and out in 3 bets LOSE LOSE LOSE
So tell me how can I get rich with $30 or am I destined to forever being a donator for the TAB

[Betsy]

I'm referring to mug punta (ain't that an appropriate name), Floydyboy and Betsy. I was going to give Betsy the benefit of the doubt after he showed some commonsense on the ATP thread but comments like "on ya bike" swayed me the other way. I was sticking up for a bloke who had just come off a loss mate, theres nothing between me and you unless you wanna have a go at ppl when they have a loss (although i agree that the name of the thread was a poor choice)

[Rock Steady]

Point taken Rock but I strongly believe it takes money to win money the bigger the bet the bigger the win.You must have a decent bank to cover your losing runs .I might have $30 in my tab account and it will usually go up and down all day untill inevitably I give it back and sometimes I am logged in and out in 3 bets LOSE LOSE LOSE
So tell me how can I get rich with $30 or am I destined to forever being a donator for the TAB

With a $30 bank, you are best doing what you are doing - having a bit of entertainment. True, hard to make serious money with $30 behind you.
Long term you are doing very well if you can make a POT of 10%. So realistically, if you want to make say $5000 for the year you need to generate turnover of $50,000. You might have 500 bets per year to generate turnover of $50,000 so your average bet size would be $100. Now I wouldn't recommend betting more than 2.5% of your bank on each selection so using simple maths, you can see that the STARTING BANK would need to be $4000.

[mug punta]

I shouldn't have called it Bet of the year, because, my research wasnt done properly. Fair Enough. I did however think it was the tip of the year thus far.
But, your personal attack is completely unjustified and you have some serious self esteem issues.
Every time I have had a few good wins I dont have to crow to the world how good I am, but you do.

If you kept your big mouth shut I would have applauded you because that was some great tipping and more importantly wagering on the weekend.
However, you just wanted to get personal because I didn't agree with your opinion.
I really couldn't care less what you have to say now so don't bother responding to this and dont write in my footy thread with my tips because you're not welcome there.
I have never tried to say that im the best footy punter here at this forum and the only reason I started that thread was because I don't track my bets properly and that forces me to do so.

[moeee]

moeee,
I see you are still in fine form. It was a bath but not the one you wanted.

Well done on your tips this week.
But it's not very professional of you to continue bagging people after the event!

[moeee]

Hawthorn + $2,355
Geelong + $518

Profit so far for Round 4 = $2,873

If Geelong were rated at 75% and 70% was available the differential is less than 10%.
How did Geelong qualify as value?