Staking Plan

[Benny]

Much has been written on the subject of staking plans and it will continue.

I came up with the following for a seris of 10 bets.

1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,5.

After the 10th bet you go back and start again. Any thoughts?

Benny

[Rock Steady]

That is a "chasing losses plan". I would prefer the following:
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 until the bank doubles then the plan would be 2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2.

[BJ]

Well it really depends on what you are betting on......
It would also depend on what happens if you have a win in the middle. Are you in front then and start again, or do you drop down a couple of levels, or do you just start again after 10 bets?

If you want to know peoples opinions about something, you need to supply enough information so they can....

[Benny]

That's very interesting. Would it work over the long term.

Benny

[Benny]

You stop after a winner providing you are showing a profit then rule that seris and repeat until you strike a winner.

Does that help.

Benny

[BJ]

That is a "chasing losses plan". I would prefer the following:
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 until the bank doubles then the plan would be 2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2.

And then what happens if your bank halves? Do you drop back to the 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1?
What you would be doing is betting more on your losing bets than your winning bets, hence lowering your return percentage. This is all ok if you are returning a healthy profit from a straight bet.

[BJ]

But what are you betting on?

[Benny]

Prepost favourites above $2.50 in Maiden races between 1100m and 1600m. I reckon I can pick 3 or 4 out of every 10 races.

Benny

[BJ]

It would basically depend on the average price paid and the strike rate as to how aggressive your staking plan should be.
I would imagine they would average about $3.5 suggesting that you may be increasing to quickly at the start.

My personal preference is to go up and down by percentages rather than set figures.
If you are getting divs of 3.5, you probably need your bet to be doubled after 3 losses rather than 2.

On your 10th bet, your outlay is $27, meaning that you must have a winner paying greater than $5 to be in front. Regardless, your next bet will be 1.
I think more thought needs to be put into it.
You need to work out your winning percentage and average dividend before making a staking plan....

[Benny]

Here are the results for my prepost favourites in Maiden races.

15/64 bets
Return $70.00/$64.00 outlay
Strike Rate 23.4%
Average div $4.66.

What sort of staking should I be using?

Benny

[BJ]

You are making profits from a straight bet, but it is probably too early to claim a strike rate although it is looking positive.
It really depends on your allowable risk.
Also, considering the fact that your strike rate is not guaranteed, there is nothing that I could suggest to you regarding a staking plan in the format you describe.
I bet a similar way to you and this is the basic idea of what I do.
I keep a spreadsheet of the last 30 bets. I record the odds I get a horse for, which becomes my probability of the horse winning.
I have a base return of $100.
I divide the number of actual wins into the number of required wins for 100%.
I then divide the base bet into the previous percentage.
eg if out of the last 30 races, you needed 10 winners to break even, and you only got 6, your bet would now be to return $167. ($100/.6)


The danger with staking systems is that the longer a bad run lasts, the more up shite creek you are. What I am doing is limiting a run to 30 races so your bet shouldn't get past double its original bet.

Please Note:

This will increase your return percentage because you are betting more on your winning bets. I would not recommend using any staking system unless you are capable of returning at least 95% on straight bets......
I only bet fixed odds, and only bet to return a figure. This is my recommendation only.

[Benny]

Thanks. What you say is very interesting. How can I make a spreadsheet like the one you mention.

Benny

[BJ]

I am probably not the best person to ask about spreadsheets. Yes they get the job done, but I am probably the only one to make sense of them, there is usually shite everywhere....

But what you need is a column for:
a/ Dividend
b/ * for a Win
c/ 1/Dividend
d/ Win Count
e/ c(tally)
f/ d/e
g/ 100(base)/f

When you get 30 results into the sheet you need along with d and e, d31-d1 and e31-e1.
This will limit any changing of the base to 30 races.
You also need a basic understanding of if statements.

If you need further help I could probably whip you up 1 in a few days when I get home...
email is mohttnerb @ hotmail . com

[Benny]

BJ I have sent you a email.

I hope you get it as I have just had a time out and I don't know how long it will last.

Benny

[BJ]

Didn't get an email. mohttnerb@hotmail.com