ROUND 5 COMMENTS

[marko]

DANGER game for the Kangaroos this week .I will still stay on the bandwagon of the kangas but I'd suggest anyone take the line bet offerred this week on the Hawks even though I don't know what the margin is.Wont surprise me if Hawks maintain the form of last week as the ROOS ARE DUE TO LOSE

FREO will do their usual trick and win at home after yet another pathetic away game with their midfield totally reversing form this week.If they don't they can say goodbye to finals this year I reckon (even though I never ever had them in any 8 of mine)

PORT GEELONG PORT GEELONG gee a real toughy but even though GEELONG has an abysmal AAMI record I have to take this game on form and Port are playing shocking footie but that said this could be 1 nail for Ports coffin and should come out swinging

SYDNEY I think should be too strong for Melbourne this week but again no surprise if melbourne won (albiet fairly narrowly)Bruce is a HUGE loss.

ADELAIDE ADELAIDE ADELAIDE Now this is THE form team I reckon .I rate them up there with the Eagles and reckon the Roos couldnt match them (at least not in Adelaide)They are playing great footie although,they like the Kangaroos have no depth and if Mcloed or Riccuito and a few other injuries come to pass they will struggle but until then they look good to me

I hope WEST COAST lose. I'll be a happy Roo if they do but.....................
The ground they like.....the weather, just like home ......form so much better than the lions.West coast for me but like Port, Brisbane will come out hard.

It's hard to guage how good Richmond were last week because Freo were just so very fatigued .Rock was right .Players arent machines (another reason the Bulldogs will wilt I believe).ST.KILDA has now learnt to live without St.Nick and will give Richmond a mighty contest.Plus I cant remember when Richos ever played well 2 weeks in a row (I know he may have but it wouldnt be very often at all).These Saints will be cherry ripe by the end of the season barring more misfortune.(may have worked in their favour that injury)


The bombers will take the wooden spoon this year from what I've seen so far.
They could well win this one AGAIN but somehow on form I just cant see the MAGPIES losing this .Last week they lost Rocca early but then TARRANT stepped up.Sure he ended up a villian but he did plenty good things

[rabbitz]

St Kilda 40+ and Collingwood 1-39 are pretty certain
Kitch wack your juddy brownlow money on St Kilda 40+
Cheers

[rabbitz]

UNITAB
St Kilda 40+ =$2.80
St kilda 15.5+=$1.50
St Kilda-Collingwood Win Double=$2.40
Money for Jam

[Rock Steady]

Tough round with early prices pretty spot on. The only "value" play so far for me is Collingwood.

COLLINGWOOD: Bet $1200 @ $1.91 Pinnacle.

Agree marko that Essendon look like Wooden Spoon material at this point. NO legs in the last quarter against Geelong. Fitness levels are in question. Collingwood not a good side but showing a bit of ticker and the big Anzac day crowd at the G should spur them on to a comfortable victory. Rated $1.50 in my book so $1.91 more than acceptable.

Expect St Kilda to account for Richmond but price is no luxury.

PS. My model rates WEST COAST at $1.47 so on prices they would normally be a "value" play but my Golden Rule No.1 that I never break is "NEVER BET ON AN INTERSTATE SIDE NO MATTER HOW BIG THE PRICE".
West Coast can definately win but my money will stay in my pocket on this game.

[mug punta]

Im going to live up to my name as MUG PUNTA again here, no doubt, but, I really like my own BOMBERS to win this week.
We are a better side than the Pies and with Rocca out, they have no structure up forward.

LLoyd has had 2 games back and Fletcher and Bradley are in good form.
Also, Essendon are a very proud team and they have copped a battering in the press this week in Melbourne and I really expect them to bounce back and I wouldn't even be surprised if we actually towelled the pies.
My only concern is if LICURIA and BURNS really fire up bacause if we can stop one of those 2 they wont win

Just, so you don't think it's blind faith talking here I have regulary tip against my side when I expect them to get beat and over the last 2 years im rarely wrong when I tip the Bombers to win.

For you guys who want to back the PIES i suggest you wait till Sunday or Monday because I really expect there price to drift, and it wont shock me if the Bombers start favourites.
If that doesnt happen please dont bite my head off RS because I see you've already got on.

In other games I would tread warily in taking the shorts on offer about the crows. They are in great form, but, it's Chris Grant's 300th game this week and he is the most respected and loved bulldog of the modern era.
They played pretty well in Perth and the only ? there is the perth fatigue factor coming back to Melbourne.

I think the Hawks can upset the KANGAROOS also.
The roos forward line is pretty ordinary and I reckon the Hawks backline led by Croad, Smith and Jon Hay are playing pretty well.
I just think the Roos are actually pretty ordinary and reality will catch up with them sometime soon, although, it may not be this week.

The saints will win, but as RS states aren't a very attractive price, but I think RABBITZ HT-FT double still looks a great bet and at around $1.60 is good value.

In other thoughts I can guarantee ESSENDON will not win the spoon and I think the PIES will. They are now without there 3 key players in BUCKLEY, ROCCA and FRASER for most of the year and I think it will be a long year for the PIES.

I really like Fraser Gehrig for the COLEMAN MEDAL. He is currently $4.75 and with any luck regarding injury and suspension I think he may win it pretty easily.

[Sportz]

Essendon's won 8 of the past 10 clashes against Collingwood.

[moeee]

St Kilda 40+ and Collingwood 1-39 are pretty certain
Kitch wack your juddy brownlow money on St Kilda 40+
Cheers
After observing your performance in the Footy comp Rabbitz,I suggest you desist from suggesting what others should do with their green!

[moeee]

In other games I would tread warily in taking the shorts on offer about the crows. They are in great form, but, it's Chris Grant's 300th game this week and he is the most respected and loved bulldog of the modern era.

Thanks for that Mugsy.That earns the Bulldogs rating a 14 point bonus.
And Darren Gaspar plays 200 for the Tigers,but only a 4 point bonus I'm afraid.

[moeee]

Essendon's won 8 of the past 10 clashes against Collingwood.
Thank you Sportz.that is now a 8 point bonus to the Bombers.
And to change the subject for a minute,I was fairly confident of tipping 8 winners last week and only got 3 plus the draw!
And I don't know what that was last week,but it certainly wasn't Hawthorn.
Wooden Spoon.

[Sportz]

Mo,

I think you over-rated Brisbane and under-rated Hawthorn. The two things combined in the same match meant you were quite a way off. Not criticising you though, because many were in the same boat. By the way, there's also a theory that how you finish one match is how you start the next. Not sure about that, but I know that Hawthorn finished very well in the 2nd half against Essendon the week before and were unlucky to lose, whereas Brisbane stopped as if shot in the last quarter against Sydney.

Glad that St Kilda put some normality back into things last week. I honestly thought they'd probably go through the season unbeaten at Telstra Dome this year, but that was shot down straight away by the Kangaroos. I've got a bit of confidence back now with the Saints.

As for Port Adelaide, if they don't get stuck in soon, they'll be in serious trouble. If you went just on form, you'd pick Geelong to beat them this week, but Geelong has lost all of it's last 10 games interstate.

Speaking of which, here's a good place to get all of those stats. Don't have to do any searching. It's all in front of you:
http://www1.bestbets.com.au/sport/

[rabbitz]

After observing your performance in the Footy comp Rabbitz,I suggest you desist from suggesting what others should do with their green!
St Kilda 40+
What do ya mean,performance,I had a few bad bounces go my way
All I'm saying is why have a big wack on a bet thats 4-5 months away
I had $5 on Ablett but its $5
If Kitch wants to treat his bet like say investing on shares ,so be it, Who Cares.Anyway isnt the idea of this forum ,to stick your neck,offer bad advice ,get into petty arguments ,then your wife will root ya silly ,then ya take it all back.
Im only doing it so i can get more action in the boudoir,pretty clever ,huh
Cheers
P.S. Whats your best for this weekend,Oh wise one

[marko]

Rab now THAT was funny

[Kitch]

Crows will thump the Bulldogs everyone.


It might be Grants 300th but it is also Simon Goodwins 150th and we always do well in milestone games.

Last week was Edwards' 200th and Torneys 150th. And what a win that was.

[BJ]

I would take.... (All prices are current on Betfair....)
Geelong $45.5 at $2.20
Bulldogs $38 at $2.64
Carlton $33 at $3.05
Hawthorn $38.5 at $2.62
Melbourne $50 at $2
Brisbane $48 at $2.1
Richmond $30 at $3.35
Essendon $50 at $2

Total outlay $333.

[marko]

I'd be absolutely *$&#ting myself if I had that ticket
mind you now I've written this you may well do a clean sweep and I'll get another 3 and a draw again.

[moeee]

Crows will thump the Bulldogs everyone.



Yes Rabbitz comment was funny Marko, but the kitchen magician is hilarious!

[Kitch]

Yes Rabbitz comment was funny Marko, but the kitchen magician is hilarious!
How so?

Bulldogs have lost their last three in a row. Crows have won their last 3 in a row. Adelaide have a much better list, ie McLeod, Riccuito, Goodwin, Edwards, Reilly, Mattner, Thompson. Plus the bulldogs are coming back from Perth and it is very hard to win coming off that road trip.

Oh well Im coming over to Melbourne for this game, to the see the Crows have a good win.

[moeee]

P.S. Whats your best for this weekend,Oh wise one

Feel silly saying this after warning you of steering clear of them.
Kangaroos are actually birds and you can stick your hawks in your casserole!

[marko]

KING OUT for GEELONG think I'll go PORT now

[mug punta]

Looks like the Mug, knows at least something.
Current odds with GLOBAL
Essendon $1.80
Colingwood $2.05.

[moeee]

Know this Mugsy.
Once you pull out the plug,it all goes down the drain.
Not sure what it means but I'm sure there is wisdom there to men of understanding.

[marko]

KING OUT for GEELONG think I'll go PORT now


D@$#HEAD

[marko]

DANGER game for the Kangaroos this week .I will still stay on the bandwagon of the kangas but I'd suggest anyone take the line bet offerred this week on the Hawks even though I don't know what the margin is.Wont surprise me if Hawks maintain the form of last week as the ROOS ARE DUE TO LOSE

FREO will do their usual trick and win at home after yet another pathetic away game with their midfield totally reversing form this week.If they don't they can say goodbye to finals this year I reckon (even though I never ever had them in any 8 of mine)

PORT GEELONG PORT GEELONG gee a real toughy but even though GEELONG has an abysmal AAMI record I have to take this game on form and Port are playing shocking footie but that said this could be 1 nail for Ports coffin and should come out swinging

SYDNEY I think should be too strong for Melbourne this week but again no surprise if melbourne won (albiet fairly narrowly)Bruce is a HUGE loss.

ADELAIDE ADELAIDE ADELAIDE Now this is THE form team I reckon .I rate them up there with the Eagles and reckon the Roos couldnt match them (at least not in Adelaide)They are playing great footie although,they like the Kangaroos have no depth and if Mcloed or Riccuito and a few other injuries come to pass they will struggle but until then they look good to me

I hope WEST COAST lose. I'll be a happy Roo if they do but.....................
The ground they like.....the weather, just like home ......form so much better than the lions.West coast for me but like Port, Brisbane will come out hard.

It's hard to guage how good Richmond were last week because Freo were just so very fatigued .Rock was right .Players arent machines (another reason the Bulldogs will wilt I believe).ST.KILDA has now learnt to live without St.Nick and will give Richmond a mighty contest.Plus I cant remember when Richos ever played well 2 weeks in a row (I know he may have but it wouldnt be very often at all).These Saints will be cherry ripe by the end of the season barring more misfortune.(may have worked in their favour that injury)


The bombers will take the wooden spoon this year from what I've seen so far.
They could well win this one AGAIN but somehow on form I just cant see the MAGPIES losing this .Last week they lost Rocca early but then TARRANT stepped up.Sure he ended up a villian but he did plenty good things


GEEZ does this bloke talk shit or what

[Rock Steady]

COLLINGWOOD out to $2.25 with Multibet so I've had another go.

COLLINGWOOD: Bet $800 @ $2.25 MULTIBET.

[Rock Steady]

My model rates WEST COAST at $1.45 so at $2.02 with Pinnacle they appear to be "value" however I cannot back them as my number one rule eliminates them as a bet. I just never back interstate sides. I may miss winners like Melbourne who were rated $1.33 but I also save myself plenty by not backing losers.

[Betsy]

Well done Rock, you're pricing of Weagles seems much more appropriate compared to the $1.95 i picked up. I must say i didn't expect them to do it with this much ease though, ah well I'm not complaining!!

[Sportz]

But I wouldn't even really count West Coast as an 'interstate' side when playing at the Gabba. It's almost like a home ground for them. I priced them at $1.20 today and had them winning by 35 points. I thought they were INCREDIBLE value. They beat the Lions by about 70 points at the Gabba a couple of years ago and this might be more.

[Rock Steady]

Sportz,
Easy win to WCE today but overall figures since the AFL introduced interstate sides indicates that backing all interstate sides at level stakes is a LOSING proposition overall at the historical prices offered. Of course there are always individual exceptions.
Personally, I thought the WCE looked comfortable winners today (too much pace over the whole paddock) but INTERSTATE is what is says. I stick to my own AFL model's prices strictly and I have other "filters" before putting my cash down. This week I would have backed Melbourne, West Coast and Carlton on my rated prices for two wins and one loss had I ignored my interstate rule but I am not interested in what happens on one particular weekend. My ledger at the end of September is all that matters.

[Sportz]

Easy win to WCE today but overall figures since the AFL introduced interstate sides indicates that backing all interstate sides at level stakes is a LOSING proposition overall at the historical prices offered. Of course there are always individual exceptions.


Yes, but that wasn't what I was suggesting. I totally agree with you that interstate teams have a poor record generally, but as I said, today was one of those individual exceptions. West Coast play brilliantly in Brisbane and to me, there is NO home ground advantage for Brisbane at all. In fact, it may as well be a home ground for the Eagles. Same with Sydney at the Gabba. It holds no real fears for them at all these days.

[Rock Steady]

Fair enough Sportz.

[moeee]

COLLINGWOOD out to $2.25 with Multibet so I've had another go.

COLLINGWOOD: Bet $800 @ $2.25 MULTIBET.

I don't understand why you praise the efforts of the professionals,then go against the weight of money!
But like they say,"it's your money Ralph".

[Rock Steady]

moeee,
You should know by now I go by my own ratings/judgement. Often the pro money agrees with me.
If you chop and change it is a recipe for failure.

And the pro money is not always right - just look at the Brisbane/west Coast match today. Brisbane $2.00 into $1.75 favourites at the kick off.
All Isaid was the professionals (including me ) had a good lick at West Coast and Melbourne prior to the season commencing. November in fact.

[rabbitz]

UNITAB
St Kilda 40+ =$2.80
St kilda 15.5+=$1.50
St Kilda-Collingwood Win Double=$2.40
Money for Jam

Oh when the saints go marchi'in,oh when the saints go marchin'in
oh i went and took the 40+,when the saints go marchin'in
oh i do like that number
should have taken 60,when the saints go marchin ínnnnn!!!!1

[Sportz]

And the pro money is not always right - just look at the Brisbane/west Coast match today. Brisbane $2.00 into $1.75 favourites at the kick off.


You're kidding! Damn, I bet too early.

[Rock Steady]

Yes Sportz,
WCE got out to $2.08 with Pinnacle and a general $2.00 in most other places.
Just proves that the money isn't always right.

I took $1.91 early in the week Collingwood and buttered up at $2.25. All the money is for Essendon but that doesn't make them win.

[Sportz]

Well, never mind. I'm still pretty pleased with $1.90. Also had a small bet on the 40+ margin at $6.00.

[Rock Steady]

Well done Mug Punta. Bombers too good.
Loss of $2000 for me on Collingwood.

[mug punta]

Just curious RS.
I know you have your interstate rule, but do you think that maybe it's worth a bet on WCE when you have them rated so short compared to what there actual price is.
I know you are always looking for value,and I think you are a good enough judge to know when to have a dip or stay out.

[Rock Steady]

Just curious RS.
I know you have your interstate rule, but do you think that maybe it's worth a bet on WCE when you have them rated so short compared to what there actual price is.
I know you are always looking for value,and I think you are a good enough judge to know when to have a dip or stay out.

Interesting point Mugs.
In my heart I liked WEST COAST and my model rated them very short but I have rules for a reason: to take the indecision out of the equation. That was a game that was not indecisive but a lot of interstate clashes are and so I have just learnt over the years that it is better to have a set rule. If I had backed all the interstate "value 'plays over many years I would be worse off than I am now.

[BJ]

I would take.... (All prices are current on Betfair....)
Geelong $45.5 at $2.20
Bulldogs $38 at $2.64
Carlton $33 at $3.05
Hawthorn $38.5 at $2.62
Melbourne $50 at $2
Brisbane $48 at $2.1
Richmond $30 at $3.35
Essendon $50 at $2

Total outlay $333.


Pity I used the word "would" instead of "did".........