BARRIER POSITIONS

[col]

hI....this is my first time at this forum, has any one done any research on barrier positions, I find that barriers 2,4, and 7 have been fairly successful over a period of time,

[KennyVictor]

Hi Col,

Welcome.

Only research I've done shows that barrier positions are over-rated. Because they are easy and require no working out amateur form analysts place too much weight on them. I have no figures to prove it but I would bet barrier 1 returns marginally more winners but significantly less percentage return of money than any other barrier.

As far as 2, 4 and 7 are concerned I think you're dreaming. Unless they have special mood lighting and soft music to calm the horse before the race in those particular barriers I can't see any reason, other than pure chance, why horses would come out of them any more successfully. Especially since you don't even narrow it down to a particular course.

Just in case I'm completely wrong (as I usually am) how many races do you base your observations on?

KV

[fast eddy]

hI....this is my first time at this forum, has any one done any research on barrier positions, I find that barriers 2,4, and 7 have been fairly successful over a period of time,

Col, welcome. In a very small nutshell, barrier draws as Kenny points out are over-rated, not to mention an erroneous statistic. There is approx 3% difference between barriers long-term. Obviously there is always a horse in barrier 1, but not always in barrier 16, therefore no statisical relevance can be taken into account. Tip: Use another filter for your ratings. There is, however, a cavet. This pertains to horses drawn an inside barrier close to, or on the turn. In this case, they are favoured and the outside horses/barriers are disadvantaged.

Hope this helps.

[marcus25]

Col, welcome. In a very small nutshell, barrier draws as Kenny points out are over-rated,
"Obviously there is always a horse in barrier 1"
Hope this helps.

Hi Eddy!
Stricktly speaking the term "there is always a horse in barrier 1" is not exactly true. "There is always a horse in the barrier closest to the rail" is the term I would use. Many times you will see barrier one empty. But I completely agree with your and KV's comments about the importance of barrier positions.
It is highly overrated.
Everything being equal it should make a difference.
But it rarely does.
The only time I take the Jockey into account is when the horse is starting from a wide barrier, a good jockey can minimise the disadvantage to almost nothing while a bad one can make it ten times worse.

Also a horse can miss the start from any barrier!
That's worse than a wide barrier.

As a matter of fact if there was any barrier I would avoid, it would be #1.
How many times did you see the fav boxed in?
Too much money lost on barrier one.

[Bhagwan]

An interesting exercise to carry out , is to look at say the first & second TAB favs of say 150 races , allocate the figures to reflect wind barrier & inside barrier of the 2 said TAB Favs .
What one will find , is those 2 combined will have a SR of approx 44%
you will also see that the 2 columns will have almost the identical SR as one another , what one will also see ,is that the wider barrier of the 2 will end up with stronger dividends e.g. the dollar returns will be higher than the inside barrier of the 2 which tells us, that the general public overbet the inside barriers to actual chance.

Final conclusion, barriers make very little difference ,especially within 1-12 barrier positions,
but it could be a way of seeking value if one is confronted with a situation of 2 horses of equal ability , then back the wider barrier of the 2 for the sake of value especially on fast, good, tracks.

[Twodogs]

Good Morning Everyone,

What are your thoughts on Eagle Farm 1800m? I have found the barrier guides in the sportsman very handy guide keeping in mind the what your horses profile is.

Cheers
Twodogs

[Luckyboy]

Looking at barriers in a pure statistical form is of little or no relevance.

Barriers need to be considered in combination with a horse's racing style and the expected early pace of a race.

For example where a race has no designated leaders and only a small percentage of horses that like to race on the pace, then we can anticipate a slow early race pace and conclude barriers will be of little consequence.

However, I have seen time and again small fields of front running horses where a horse drawn barrier 8 can end up three wide as it competes for the lead. In this case an inside barrier is an advantage.

Understanding how a horse races, what is the likely early race pace and determining if the barrier is favourable or not will assist in finding winners in any race.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[KennyVictor]

Great stuff Luckyboy, posts that give some insight into how races actually work are what I hope for when I log on to this site.

Thanks,

KV

[kiwi]

Luckyboy makes good pointers as to how barriers should be evaluated.I however agree also with col, barriers 4-6 are important to me when deciding on a bet amount.
When taking a tri i will often throw in roughies drawn either side of my main selection:)

[KennyVictor]

When taking a tri i will often throw in roughies drawn either side of my main selection:)

And is there some logic behind this strategy or is it just a random way to select roughies?

KV

[kiwi]

The logic is that a horses natural instinct is to run in a herd.If my selection(s) to run first are on the mark the roughy maybe will run alongside the better animals and into a place.

It has boosted my trifecta divvies several times and for me that is worthwhile.

It is also something i've had success with backing greyhounds.

Given that saddlecloth one and the favourite are usually superior animals on the day checkout where there barrier mates finish.

Throwing them into percentage tris keeps the cost down.