Top 4 TAB Nos. Plan

[Bhagwan]

Heres an approach for the lazy punter who likes to have a lash without too much brain power .
Forget about chasing the shortest paying Mule like so many TAB goers do & walking away with nothing.
What we are about here ,is chasing value but at the same time coverering some of the risk involved.
This does produce some nice suprises on it`s day & strikes plenty of winners so bordom does`nt set in because there are 4 Mules running for you.

RULES
Target the top 4 TAB Nos. & replace any that are scratched with the next one down.
(Stats show that these get up approx. 50% of the time depending on field sizes)
Target Field sizes 13 & less.
Bracket 1&2 then 3&4
Place 1 unit on the mule with the lower price & 2 units on the other one with larger price.
Do the same with your 2nd bracketed selections.
Outlay will be $6.00 a race .
Bank should be 50/1 e.g $300 allows for 50 outs @ $6.00 a race
Target races where at least one of the 4 is paying $7.00+ at jump time time.Otherwise no bet that race.


E.g.
$1.00 on No.1 say its price is $4.00
$2.00 on No.2 --------------$7.00
then
$1.00 on No.3 -------------$13.00
$2.00 on No.4 -------------$40.00

Please be aware that there will be days where the top 4 fall over all day , but this is rare.
If the short arses get up all day you havent lost as much as you may of thought you were going to loose at the beginning of the day, but if any of the others get up , it could & does , pay anything & some at Bull S..t prices that makes one go running to the form guide comming away saying ,
"there`s no way I would have picked that Donkey on form in a million years."
You will be laughing like a Hyena if some get up our way.

Check out some past results & see for yourself.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

A modification to the No.1-4 could be changed to 2-5 or even 3-6
because the No.1 & sometimes No.2 tend to be over bet sometimes to their true chance of winning & we might be missing some better chances further down the list .
Admittedly there was a No.1 100/1 shot that got up the other week.

Cheers.

[dingoboy]

Hi bhagwan,
youve done it again.

ive used something similar when i havent the time to read and found like you say sometimes the pays are massive. I normally just take 1,2,3,4 at 1 unit and double every second consecutive loss. ill have a look at this though.

Ive finally got my unitab account up and you were right, its a GREAT site.

looking back through the results show some interesting arguments for your case !

When you say big pays, the last few days i have managed (using two totes) to squeeeeze out winners like 44, 30.8, 56, lots of 16-18s.

I do this by running unitab and nsw at the same time, looking and taking say 16s from unitab when nsw are paying 11, then take 7 from nsw if unitab is 5s, works a treat.

Might work with your system and make it even better.

cant complain when your bank doubles every week can we.

Thanks for the info on unitab.

Cheers
Dingo

[monkeyinjapan]

I do this by running unitab and nsw at the same time, looking and taking say 16s from unitab when nsw are paying 11, then take 7 from nsw if unitab is 5s, works a treat.




Well done Dingoboy, but I still don't understand why you don't use a "best tote" facility, and thereby save yourself the bother?

Monkeyinjapan

[Bhagwan]

Hi Dingodoy,
Well done .
A good example how important shopping for value can be.

If one feels more comfortable useing the 2 TABs at once , one may as well stay with it.

Just out of interest ,do you apply any filters?, e.g. field size.

[dingoboy]

Hi all,

Monkeyinjapan,
I dont know what a "best tote" thingy is, thats probabally why i dont use one. I just got sick of seeing something that was 3 units in NSW and 7 in QLD, i feel comfortable with using the two totes, i have fox down stairs in the games room, next to the internet so all i have to do is whatch the two (dont have STAB yet) and see who is paying the best, pretty simple for someone starting off .

Hi Bhagwan.

Good to hear from you.

Normall day to day bets i still use the same filters as always (dont have flash programme nor read much form) just basically three or four RUNNERS, same amount on all, drop short priced favourite if under 4s, but they must have some sort of last four runs, i dont dissregard if they finished say sixth, i look for value and strike rate is normally arround 55-60 % so its not too bad.

One thing i do now, if a race provides no winners, instead of doubling next stake (and this is where ive come undone before) i look at the bank requirements (10% per day of ORIGINAL BANK, NOT CURRENT BANK) and look at what the odds the next race MAY pay, ie 10s or 15s, i can adjust my figure to say add 30 -50 % to last bet, this has been protecting my banks for the last month and seems to be working OK, no need to be greedy, if one runner blows out to 20s well luck is a good thing.
Another good thing that i incorporate is your idea of wathching when a fav gets up on a track, when that happens thats when i drop the fav on the next race, this is where two totes help me because i can "roughly" see which is the fav, hope you understand what i mean.

I have another little thing going at the moment but if i tell im sure people will laugh and tell me that it will be doomed to failure, and murphy says it will happen dingo !, i might wait another month and see if it still works, if it does ill post it under "dingoslazysystem", thats why i was interested in your "lazy punter idea"

I will keep you posted on it, it may keep working as it did yesterday afternoon, another got up at 22 units and pushed the bank well over my expectations, its only trial so no big six figure wins yet !

Cheers
Dingo

[darkydog2002]

Gees.
Its good to see people thinking outside the square.
Cheers.
darky.

[dingoboy]

Hi Darky,

I can assure you its from five main things, this is true.
1 Constantly doing ones arse previously and thinking, what !
2 watching the "punter" armed with 500 in the local, youve seen him, 20 on the nose, DOW, 20 on the next nose, DOW, etc, go home drunk and down 500 !
3 Reading (and trying my best to input) this forum
4 Thinking how it can be done safer, ie my variable percentage next bet after loss
5 Telling the people in rule 2 better ways of doing it and that makes you more, whats the word, liable, nah, interested and chalenged to turn a profit, be it ever so small. To help is such a wonderfull thing, truely, to see these fellas sometimes now when you walk in, they give you the old wink !

Cheers and take care
Dingo

[darkydog2002]

Why not bracket up the top 4 PROPUN FREE RATINGS horses (in brackets of 2 ) .Bet more on the highest priced horse in each bracket.
My reasoning being is that the top 4 proun horses would be rated up to TODAYS race and consequently should yield a higher strike rate and / or better priced.
Cheers.
darky.

[monkeyinjapan]

Hi all,

Monkeyinjapan,
I dont know what a "best tote" thingy is, thats probabally why i dont use one. I just got sick of seeing something that was 3 units in NSW and 7 in QLD, i feel comfortable with using the two totes, i have fox down stairs in the games room, next to the internet so all i have to do is whatch the two (dont have STAB yet) and see who is paying the best, pretty simple for someone starting off .



Hi Dingoboy,

"Best tote" refers to a website that gives you the guaranteed best of the three totes. eg sportingbet (metro win) sportsbet (metro place) and centreracing (metro and country win).

Monkeyinjapan

[baco60]

Well done Bhagwan.
Cheers
baco60

4 CELLAR EDITION 21.90 4.60
5 LYN'S MONEY 2.30
12 ROSA BRAVA 1.80
SCR 2 10
Sub Fav 1


QN 4* 5 60.90
EX 4* 5 124.40

TF 4* 5*12 783.90
A2 4* 5 30.90
4*12 24.80
5*12 4.30

[Bhagwan]

Using Darkydog`s good suggestion of targeting the Pro-Pun top 4 selections, for the Sat April 30th.
14 from 21 races = SR 67%
O/L $126.00
Ret $164.10
Prof $38.10 = 30% POT

The $2.00 bets were on only 3 of the 14 winners because a lot of short arses decided to get up this day , 7 of the 14 paid $3.10 & less & so it was still a successful day in spite of this unusual occasion of really short prices.
One of the selections paid a div of $44.30 TABQ

Cheers.

[Sportz]

There was a number 2 which won yesterday paying about $72!!!

[baco60]

It also works with Trots & Dogs
cheers
baco60

1 HANGON 64.50 8.90
3 HEAD OVER HEALS 1.80
8 WAKEMUP 2.10
SCR 11
Sub Fav 13


QN 1* 3 100.90
EX 1* 3 205.20

TF 1* 3* 8 1854.20
A2 1* 3 29.70
1* 8 37.10
3* 8 3.90

[dingoboy]

Hi Bhagwan,

If one was to use this plan for dishlikers, what if the three dog was scratched, would one,

A: take the next mut in the numbers ie 1,2,4,5, or
B: take the next mut in barrier position, ie 1,2,9,4. (where 9 hound is the subbie)

I leave this in your capable hands as im SURE you will have an answer.
Anynoe else that can clear the smog from this one please feel free, dogs pay well if you can pick em,

Cheers
Dingoboy

[Sportz]

If you were using Greyhounds, perhaps backing 4 dogs out of 8 might be too much? But anyway, I'd suggest 1, 8, 2, & 7 in that order of preference.

[dingoboy]

I have toyed with tab numbers 1234 dogs for a while, its VERY hit and miss, have made a tonne one night only to loose it next week with a run of outs, it was tab money so it didnt hurt, stopped before bank went. I was using double on loss as the strike rate was very high, my outlay was starting at .5 units, gave it a good shake for months and i dont think its dead just yet, maybe a "little refinement" here and there !
Could you emphasise on 1827 or is that just statistics, and may one ask why would four from feild is too big, i assume cost when loosing ?

Im on them tonight,

Thanks mate
Dingo

[baco60]

Hi all,
Here is a very good example how I use Bhagwan plan 4 system.
1 unit on No 1
2 units on No 2
2 unit on No 3
1 unit on No 4
For this kind of chance one needs to sit and wait, almost like fishing.
You be surprise how often it happens.
Cheers
baco



3 JUST CHANGE 5.50 2.60
6 KAYGEE ELITE 4.50
1 ROUND TO IT 1.50
SCR 7 10
Sub Fav 8


QN 3* 6 68.10
EX 3* 6 168.50

TF 3* 6* 1 369.80
A2 3* 6 19.60
1* 3 6.50
1* 6 9.80


No. Name 8:49 Win Plc Trainer Box L3S Rtng
1 ROUND TO IT 4.9 7.1 1.5 GORDON CROFTS 851 100
2 COMMAND THE WIND 8.7 4.6 1.6 ROBERT TIYCE 761 84
3 JUST CHANGE 11.4 5.5 2.6 M JENNER 446 87
4 NIP OF JACK 4.5 11.5 2.9 BARRY CAMPBELL
By the way this example is from dog race.

[BJ]

If you were using Greyhounds, perhaps backing 4 dogs out of 8 might be too much? But anyway, I'd suggest 1, 8, 2, & 7 in that order of preference.

I would go the opposite..... I would suggest 4,5,6,3 in that order......
Of course you would need a less aggressive staking plan, but the best value lies in the middle......

[Sportz]

Dingoboy,

Don't let me put you off anything. At most tracks, that's pretty much the order of winning strike rate: 1-8-2-7. But as BJ said, they are also often the most bet, so the other boxes could be better value.

I'm not a huge Greyhounds fan so I only bet on them occasionally, but sometimes I like to simply box 1,2,7,8 in any2s, quinellas & trifectas no matter what their form. It does VERY well on some tracks, not so great on others.

Currently as I write this there have been 3 Greyhound races run today. The results: 8-2-7, 2-8-1, 2-7-8. Trifectas were $92, $30 & $106.

Now I've said that, bet they don't get another one up all day. You watch. ;)

[Sportz]

BJ,

3,4,5,6 would have done very well at the Nowra dogs today.

[darkydog2002]

And Angle Park too SPORTZ up to race 3 anyway which is where I am now.
Cheers.
darky.

[Sportz]

The strike rate would be less but dividends would be better.

As I write this, 39 greyhound races so far today. 1,2,7,8 have won 26 races (67%) for a return of $106.90, and 3,4,5,6 have won 13 races (33%) for a return of $121. Meanwhile 1,2,3,4 have won 25 races (64%) for a return of $130.70. Interesting. Looks like you could be on the right track Dingoboy.

[darkydog2002]

So if I bet 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 numbers I can be garunteed a winner ??
Cheers.
darky.

[dingoboy]

Hi all,

Sportz, i think there is a goer here !
Darky, sometimes for fun ill take 7 from feild of eight, dropping fav mut!, sometimes they come in at eight units, 1 profit, sometimes 30,

Mmmmmmmm!
Cheers dingodogy

[darkydog2002]

I can see the system sellers getting onto this one.
Something along the lines of.

Eliminate 1st and 2nd FAVS .

Bet the remaining dogs.

Not sure about the staking plan but there sure to have one up their sleeves somewhere.
Cheers.
darky.

[dingoboy]

Darky,

Just went through last nights reults unitab, betting 1,2,7,8, replace scratchings (funny thing, get it, dogs, scratching, fleas ) with next available tab number.

bets 73
pays53
%72.6
$out starting at 1 unit/mut with total 4 units $800
$ back $1026
POT 28%
Staking, dingos special setup as follows:
1 unit on 1,2,7,8, to start, double bet on COMPLETE loss only, continue same bet on next race if any return at all, even 1.5, keeps staking level down, only three times bet went to 64 units (16 per itchy mut)

Normally id go either 50 % increase or if bank was flash with funds............100% increase,

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
Cheers Dingoboy

[Sportz]

Final rundown just using numbers and making no adjustments or additions for scratchings.

1,2,7,8: 51 wins $260.60
3,4,5,6: 32 wins $291.90
1,2,3,4: 46 wins $286.00
5,6,7,8: 37 wins $266.50

So 1,2,7,8 got the most winners as I would have expected but returned the least money. 1,2,3,4 doesn't look bad. Pretty regular wins and slightly better average dividends.

[dingoboy]

Hi Sportz,

I noticed earlier on you said any2s, ive only had my unitab account for a week(its blocked now damnit) and i noticed any2s, could you give me a laymans rundown of this as we in sunny nsw dont have this and i cant make heads or tails of it through the help section,

By the way, those results, how many races was that from

Cheers Dingoboy

[Mark]

Don't want to be negative guys, (or is this a joke thread?), why not try it today for real money. Sorry but I guarantee you will lose.

[dingoboy]

it may be a little tounge in cheeck,

I have tried it live since 4th april on NSW tab, too slow for dogs but still worked ok.

Opened up unitab account 26th april 2pm ish with "standard ammount" and i am now waiting for "unrestricted account" to be cleared as the balance went over their terms, that was in 4 days, hopefully it wasnt just a luck run as im thinking !

it may all come to a crashing end shortly !

Cheers
Dingo

[darkydog2002]

You blokes dont bet with REAL money do you.
Cheers.
darky.

[Sportz]

Mark,
We're just kicking a few ideas around here. And that's the whole idea - to look at things like this BEFORE you put your money down.


Dingo,
There were 83 races yesterday. By the way, I've just looked at numbers 2,3,6,7 and they produced better results. Again, making no additions or adjustments for scratchings, these numbers produced 45 wins and a return of $307. As for Any2 bets, that's basically just like a quinella, only your selections don't have to finish 1st & 2nd. They can finish 1st & 3rd or 2nd & 3rd. There are three separate dividends and as a result some of the divs are pretty damn small, but you can get some real good ones too. And of course it's possible to win all 3 divs with the one bet if you box your selections or have a couple of bankers. And the bet I've been talking about is where you take one selection as a banker from the field. Then all your runner has to do is just get a place and you collect 2 of the 3 divs. So it's basically just like a place bet, only that if a roughie or two pops in the placings it can pay a fair bit more than a place bet of the same size.

[BJ]

BJ,

3,4,5,6 would have done very well at the Nowra dogs today.

Yeah, I saw a couple of them.... I think one of them paid about $25, and then the next was about $10.....

I only suggested those numbers to keep with the theme of 4 numbers....
Personally I would only take 1 of them..... Either the 4, or the 5... And use a staking plan. I haven't thought too much about the staking plan so I could not suggest anything yet.

I think the whole point of gambling is to find value. There is no value in the outside boxes. Sometimes you will find a dog starting from box 4 paying $2. I would imagine the same dog in the same field coming from box 1 would pay about $1.2.

In saying this, I still think that you need to be betting on a platform that AT LEAST pays better than 2 totes...
I don't believe in any staking plan that can overcome a 90% return.....
To use a staking plan, you must at least be returning 95% on straight bets or you are just asking for trouble.... And I probably wouldn't touch it unless it was about 97%.
This is only my opinion though and I wish you guys all the best....

[dingoboy]

Thanks Sportz,
Interesting thing those any twos, i was going to ask about the banker but you are too quick, i saw it there on the left but was too scared to touch it, thinking it might just add more things into the pot of thoughts.

The main thing is you are right, we are only kicking a few ideas around, infact, YEAHHAA, my unitab account is re opened and im going to give it a little try on the 1287, just to have a look, i might try with a 50% increase on stake ofter loss ?

See how it goes.

Dingo

[davez]

orange r1 no1 $20.20 unitab, & the day is but young :)

[davez]

lean pickings after that tho......

[Bhagwan]

The stronger divs & results seem to come from races 1300M+

[Shaun]

What tab offers the any2 option....and is it possible to estimate the return from the prices you see.....like we can with exacta/quinella/trifecta