XPTDRIVER

[darkydog2002]

Is there any major difference in strike rate between the various track conditions on your ratings.
Cheers.
darky.

[xptdriver]

Gday darky,

I would have to have a look and I'm not sure I have my records sorted in a way to do that properly, what I do know tho, is that I suck royally on the metro melbourne tracks... I haven't got them sussed for some reason, I really dont take a lot of notice of a horse's performance at today's track, maybe that is the reason Moonee Valley is a nightmare for me... I do way better with the country meetings, but having said that it comes in cycles too..

AS for track conditions... I do them all a few days in advance so set them at Good, If there is a wet track I add a runner in my top 5 that is the best wet tracker in my opinion and drop the lowest scoring original out.... sometimes it works some times not.. thats a hard one to answer :)

[darkydog2002]

Reading between the lines on some of your posts I figured that the country /provincials would have a higher strike rate, and would be favored by you over the Metropolitans.
Without the price assessments is it a good idea to concentrate on the top 2 after scratchings.
Cheers and many thanks.
darky.

[xptdriver]

Gday darky,

I gotta say I am kinda interested in something you wrote in another thread about bracketing the top 4 and betting more on the longer priced ones.. I think that would probably show promise... I see where you are coming from with the Top 2 idea.. I have managed to snag some pretty good winners at double figures in the top 2 recently, but I don't know how long that will continue.. I am tempted to try only staking things over 5/1 maybe or even double figures.. what do you think of that idea?

I reckon probably 6 or 7 times out of ten I tend to find the fave as my top rater, but that doesnt mean I think that it will win, it's just what the numbers say..

I have continued to make very nice money just taking overs... that means a lot of the time I am not backing my toppie.. sometimes I win sometimes I lose, but you and I know thats the nature of the game :)
I explained somewhere else on this site why I don't post prices anymore (whingers), and I leave it to people to make their own minds up on the price they should take.

I think the Sytem I have been posting is showing some promise, I see Macris Cabin won for me yesterday at 4$... I havent checked the Territory yet, so there might be a place getter or winner there too

[Sportz]

My namesake only came 3rd. As for Marcris Cabin, it was also a selection for my unitab system, so was one of my bets yesterday.

With your system 1, I'm pretty sure I know that rule you referred to which produces more bets in places like WA and N.Qld and the bush etc. It IS a good rule I think, but I guess it could be skewed. Do you have any figures on where System 1 works best.

[xptdriver]

My namesake only came 3rd. As for Marcris Cabin, it was also a selection for my unitab system, so was one of my bets yesterday.

With your system 1, I'm pretty sure I know that rule you referred to which produces more bets in places like WA and N.Qld and the bush etc. It IS a good rule I think, but I guess it could be skewed. Do you have any figures on where System 1 works best.

Gday Sportz,

yeah I see ya ran 3rd :)

I would be loathe to say, they seem to be mainly in the west and country areas, I think its got to do with the limited number of meetings , thats why there were so many at Alice yesterday, I think they had a couple of meetings in the last week.. and thats why they all got rolled I guess :) It is purely mechanical.. some would say that is why it is bound to fail... I think it will work because of the 1x3 betting requirement, it does find lotsa place getters, and the place div should keep you afloat I would reckon... it looks for fit horses in form (don't they all?) Or I t could fall over spectacularly, but at the moment we are in front.. lets hope it stays there

[topsy99]

my major problem is being able to drop out a lot of the losers from my bets.
lately i have improved.
sorry to put this one in but yesterday i had only two races both in doomben
one was top marc's race which i backed in a group of 4 horses and then serenote which was beaten by the odds on favorite.

the danger of backing losers is not just the money you lose and the time it takes to follow losing races but it takes your confidence away from you punting.
no bets today. had two races at warnambool with listed horses but no bets none ran a place.

so to sum it up i am pleased not to back so many losers.

[darkydog2002]

I think thats probably a better idea than the one I am currently adopting .Which is
Betting the top 2 with the 6 point divisor plan (stake evenly split between the 2 )
My worry with long priced horses rated down in the ratings is the long run of outs which not only dents the bank but also the confidence.

Cheers.
darky.

[kiwi]

Staking XPT's Winners

New idea.Xpt picks 5 and often the fifth pick wins.Drop out the favourite, in other words no bet.That leaves the fifth pick free to bet on.Or drop out the favourite and with that unit box the 5 in a quinella.
If the 5 were backed in a box trifecta, and they come in often enough, the picks could be dutch bet to save the trifecta bet amount