Interesting Stats

[Fryingpan]

Daniel from The Punter's Notebook generously gave me these stats about first and second favourites performance in relation to their last start. Worth a read.


Saturday Metropolitan Favourites - by last start finish position (last 38
months)

Last start
1st - 33.5% strike rate: LOT = -10.6%
2nd - 29.8% strike rate: LOT = -12.6%
3rd - 28.4% strike rate: LOT -10.7%
4th - 27.1% strike rate: LOT -15.7%
5th - 27.1% strike rate: LOT -12.9%
6th - 29.4% strike rate: LOT -2.6%
7th - 23.9% strike rate: LOT -21.1%
8th - 27.1% strike rate: LOT -4.3%
Worse than 8th - 26.9% strike rate: LOT -12.3%

Saturday Metropolitan 2nd Favourites - by last start finish position
(March
99 - April 02)

1st - 19.1% strike rate: LOT = -12.9%
2nd - 21.4% strike rate: POT = +0.1%
3rd - 18.4% strike rate: LOT -12.8%
4th - 17.3% strike rate: LOT -17.9%
5th - 19.6% strike rate: LOT -1.6%
6th - 16.3% strike rate: LOT -19.4%
7th - 20.3% strike rate: LOT -8.8%
8th - 16.2% strike rate: LOT -22.2%
Worse than 8th - 19.9% strike rate: POT +1.7%

[becareful]

Conclusion - last start finish position is not a good indicator of winning chances and don't bet on first or second favourite in a race :smile:

[Privateer]

I disagree. Last start finish position is one of the top 6 indicators of the chances of a horse. Of course, knowing the other 5 and linking them together to make selections is helpful.

[becareful]

Oops - meant to say that BY ITSELF last start position is not a good indicator. I certainly consider it but I do not have rules like "must finish in first 3 at last start".

I stand by the not betting on first/second favourite as a general rule (with only very rare exceptions) - much easier to find good value in the $8-$20 range (for win betting anyway).

I'd reckon that more than 50% of winners finished 1st or 2nd last start (metro sat races only).

This stat includes horses that are not fav or 2nd fav. So you have to consider horses outside the top 2 in the market.


Agree with Privateer - YOU CAN'T TAKE ONE STAT BY ITSELF AND EXPECT TO WIN.

IF YOU TOOK ONE STAT WITH ANYTHING IT WOULDN'T WORK.

What if you bought a house, purely because the street no was 56, because the last 10 hourses numbered 56 had increased in value by 50% in two years. It wouldn't work.

When you buy a car you look at more than its colour don't you????

When you choose a wife, you look at more than her eye colour don't you???

To be successful on the punt, you need to look at a range of things and put them all together.

Also, a single stat like that will change over time - the profitable stats may start to lose over the next 12 mths and vice versa.

[Privateer]

I don't know about the eye colour analogy...my wife DOES have pretty eyes!! LOL

[becareful]

And I bought my car because it was a red convertible :grin:

What if it had no engine?

Should also check the car too!!!!!

What if it had no engine?

Should also check the car too!!!!!

[becareful]

Well when I got her she had quite a few k's on the clock and had been round the block a few times but she still has a great body and handles well. Nothing like going for a ride in her on a Saturday afternoon to put a smile on my face :smile:

Oh and the car's not to bad either!

Someone made a posting which recorded winners by pre-race divs (Brumby i think)

96% of winners were above $4.

That's a more important stat to use - forget whether its fav or not and only bet if its paying more than $4 for a win.

My results for today reinforce that conclusion - see chiefs tips.

[Privateer]

Chief

read my post this forum entitled:

"Eliminate these from your punting vocabulary"

You can tell some of the people some of the time.....