Sectional Times examined

[Punter4211]

Hi All,

I spent most of last night and much of today pondering over Sectional Times data for several races.
I got the data free from the web and it shows both the time taken to travel a distance and the time in
seconds to travel each 200m segment for each runner….

I had to refer to results to get some beaten margin lengths but overall came up with the following conclusions,

It is possible to look at all runners as a group and then calculate the Speed in Meters/Sec for each runner and
taking the lowest time for the section (the leaders time) determine the distance traveled by each other runner
in the leaders time for that segment…

This is done by first determining the runners speed in mps by dividing 200m
by the runner’s time e.g. 200m / 12sec = 16.66 Meters per second.

You then multiply each other runners speed by the leader’s time and you can determine how far they had run
when the leader went past the 200m sensor. e.g if the second runners speed was 16.35 mps then they would
have run 16.35 X 12 = 196.20 meters, or be 3.8 meters behind the leader.

You can calculate this out for each segment, add them all up and it generally agrees with finishing margins
posted in the results.

In doing the experiments I found that there are lots of slight variations in figures, due I think to the fact that the runners
were not running in a perfect line but shifting across the track etc…

Having done all that work on several races I settled back and asked “What’s it all mean?”….

My Conclusion? --- Absolutely Nothing! At least nothing that I didn’t already know…

You can see in the data the relative positions of the runners and when an unfit horse gave out.

You can also pick when an unplaced runner ran a good race toward the end.

So what have I learned from this exercise? Pretty much nothing new! Certainly not what I was searching for.
A way to produce a figure relative to a horse’s performance that could be used like a class-weight rating showing
the relative strength of a runner. A figure that shows an advantage over another runner…..

My final word for now on it…..

Sectional Times, displayed in segments of 200m, as I have seen them, simply have no real worth on their own,
but combined as a tool to confirm your existing Class Weight Ratings or used in conjunction with video footage or an audio
replay they powerfully reinforce your race and runner assessments.

Please feel free to agree or disagree...

Kind Regards

OzPunter

[jfc]

I spent most of last night and much of today pondering over Sectional Times data for several races.
...
I had to refer to results to get some beaten margin lengths but overall came up with the following conclusions,

It is possible to look at all runners as a group and then calculate the Speed in Meters/Sec for each runner and
taking the lowest time for the section (the leaders time) determine the distance traveled by each other runner
in the leaders time for that segment…

This is done by first determining the runners speed in mps by dividing 200m
by the runner’s time e.g. 200m / 12sec = 16.66 Meters per second.

You then multiply each other runners speed by the leader’s time and you can determine how far they had run
when the leader went past the 200m sensor. e.g if the second runners speed was 16.35 mps then they would
have run 16.35 X 12 = 196.20 meters, or be 3.8 meters behind the leader.

You can calculate this out for each segment, add them all up and it generally agrees with finishing margins
posted in the results.


OzPunter

You appear to be making a lot of unnecessary calculations.

By simply adding times (counting from the start) you know the time it takes each runner to reach a particular section.

So you therefore know how many seconds any particular runner is away from any other one.

Convert the seconds to metres after that.

[Punter4211]

You appear to be making a lot of unnecessary calculations.

By simply adding times (counting from the start) you know the time it takes each runner to reach a particular section.

So you therefore know how many seconds any particular runner is away from any other one.

Convert the seconds to metres after that.
Dear jfc,

In my text I was trying to show how I came to the result. Of course you are right, just add 'em up and you've got the answer... Remember that I'd be computerising the whole thing so I really don't care how many calculations the computer does, I was just trying to get my head around the logic of it all.

In the end though, what have I really achieved? I think I just found a way to do a bunch of useless calculations...

Sectional Times though will have some use in studying Audio or Video replays as you can quite clearly see when a leader starts to tire and when a back runner accellerates..

Just a nother tool in the box of tricks but I fail to see that it can be the "Be all and end all" of finding winners, like some say...

I remain open to all suggestions

Kind Regards (and thanks for your valuable input)

OzPunter

[jfc]

OzPunter,

before you hope to achieve anything with 200m sectionals you need to get a grasp of final time rating.

That is not easy given that despite considerable effort I have never found any published theories which adequately cover times. Some initially appear plausible but soon my nagging doubts take over.

Consider this conundrum:

In September 1998 Fappiano's Son won his 1st start at VP, then at his 2nd obliterated the 900m track record at Flemington, by ~1 whole second faster than on any day before.

That figure seems almost in the realms of fantasy, suggesting by time he was ~9kg better than any other October 2YO.

Yet in his next start at 8/13 SP he was beaten by 5.8L, and after that lost by 7.7L.

It took him 3 years before his only other win (in an R1), from a total of 27 starts!

This tragedy should illustrate a key factor of time/pace handicapping which published theories have overlooked.

What is that factor? Think a while before answering.

[La Mer]

Dear jfc, In my text I was trying to show how I came to the result. Of course you are right, just add 'em up and you've got the answer... Remember that I'd be computerising the whole thing so I really don't care how many calculations the computer does, I was just trying to get my head around the logic of it all.

In the end though, what have I really achieved? I think I just found a way to do a bunch of useless calculations...

Sectional Times though will have some use in studying Audio or Video replays as you can quite clearly see when a leader starts to tire and when a back runner accellerates..

Just a nother tool in the box of tricks but I fail to see that it can be the "Be all and end all" of finding winners, like some say

Oz Punter - JFC is more than capable of exressing his point of view but I don't recall him/her ever stating that sectional times were the 'be all, end all'. In fact they are just one tool in the overall form analysis.

But don't dismiss them as uselass, they are not. More so when coupled with video watching.

As an example, a horse races on the 'fast" pace but three and four wide throughout in a race three with turns. This horse is early into its prep having stepped up 200m from its last start and gets beaten 3 lens, but was still there contesting the lead with less than a 100m to go. How would you rate its performance for a future viewpoint and and how much extra ground did it cover during the run and what was its 'REAL' racetime?

Just thought I'd give you anohter sleepness night.-)

[woof43]

Hi Oz,

To my way of thinking the 3 primary handicapping factors are Speed, Pace and Class.
The use of Sectionals helps us deal with finding Speed, Speed at the right time, is a function of Class.
One of the problems with trying to HANDICAP TIME/SPEED factors is the presence of races of different distances in the past performances lines of runners, and/or race results from other tracks. In order to overcome this deficiency, one needs to use track records and Par Times for all the different distances , then using those, and the past History of Winners and using simultaneous equations you can create a model of a race winner in terms of change in SPEED relative to the parts of a race.
Your next step would be to look at how to get rid of the initial acceleration portion of a race so you can complete the other important computations

On another note in your calculations I would use (race winners timeX Race distance)/ actual time of other runner) that will provide you with the distnace completed when the winner crossed the line.

[Punter4211]

Oz Punter - JFC is more than capable of exressing his point of view but I don't recall him/her ever stating that sectional times were the 'be all, end all'. In fact they are just one tool in the overall form analysis.

But don't dismiss them as uselass, they are not. More so when coupled with video watching.

As an example, a horse races on the 'fast" pace but three and four wide throughout in a race three with turns. This horse is early into its prep having stepped up 200m from its last start and gets beaten 3 lens, but was still there contesting the lead with less than a 100m to go. How would you rate its performance for a future viewpoint and and how much extra ground did it cover during the run and what was its 'REAL' racetime?

Just thought I'd give you anohter sleepness night.-)
Dear jfc & La Mer,

Please don't get me wrong, I wasn't pointing the finger at anyone when I said some have said Sectional Times are the "be all and end all"...

I spend a lot of time reading as much as I can and when I find something worthwhile I try to test it out...

There are some texts that have been written that suggest that sectional times are more important that weight & class handicapping, or fitness etc...

It has taken me many years to develop my computer database and before I add a new section I really like to thrash it out...

So far I haven't found any particular use for the Sectional Times displayed on the web, except that they are useful in audio & video study...

I'm running a success rate better than 60% and am always looking for an extra 5-10%... But I don't want to damage my success rate by adding in a non-performing extra function.

You'll hear less and less of me on this site after this weekend and it's back to the work-a-day grind.... Gotta pay the bills you know...

But I am absolutely determined to crack this thing and I will one day.

I do appreciate all the helpful suggestions I received, as you know in this quest there are no schools you can go to, to do a course, like any other trade.

Special thanks, La Mer, Kenchar, JFC and others...


Kind Regards

OzPunter...