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11th June 2002, 11:53 AM
Does anyone use more than one betting method/system?

I've developed about 7 in total in the past two years. Currently using 2. Will commence with 2 more next week.

These four are:
1. Method for 1000-2000m races.
2. Method for 2100m+ races
3. Roughies Method for all distances.
4. Trifecta Method using the above.

Dividing up races by distance is based on the idea that stayers have slightly different characteristics than sprinters/mid distance horses.

becareful
11th June 2002, 12:22 PM
I have one main system for Win betting that I am currently using. I use this on both gallops and harness but have different rules for the harness races (so I don't know whether you would classify this as 2 systems or 1 system with 2 variations?). This one is showing consistant good profits :smile:

I also have a system for place betting that I am not currently betting on but tracking on paper. This system does show a profit (at level stakes) but is not as consistant or profitable as my main system so it needs a bit more work before I use it.

I am also working on a Quinella system but this is still in the early development stage - haven't started trialing it on paper yet.

Equine Investor
11th June 2002, 02:09 PM
One of the best systems EVER, is pick a stable of good credentialled horses. These horses must have wins at say OPEN and above class races.

You then follow these horses during their campaign.

I must say providing you select the right ones..and stick with them, you can make an absolute KILLING!!!

Especially when a horse runs 8 lengths behind a winner, due to interference and comes out next start at 12/1 and bolts in.

:grin:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-11 15:11 ]</font>

11th June 2002, 03:02 PM
Maybe you should have included Lovely Jubly in this "stable", rather than waiting for it to lose.

M&P did that - ran a great 8th in Epsom, replay showed it should have won - I backed it in the Caulfield CUP - won by half the straight at good odds - rest is history.

Equine Investor
11th June 2002, 03:18 PM
Chief, my post on Lovely Jubly was just about finding value....not knocking the horse's ability.

E.G. Sunline is not value at $1.30 the win.
Win or lose it just isn't value.

Should a horse lose showing odds-on it will take you two wins in a row to recoup losses at level stakes if it is odds on.

Therefore, there must be better value in the race, as sooner or later the HOT POT will lose.

Big Orange
11th June 2002, 05:26 PM
Chief,

I definitely use more than just one betting method.

I use, simultaneously, 6 different systems (one purely for longshots) as well as my own ratings method and my personal "un-rated" assessments. All have been developed over a number of years. Record-keeping is the single biggest factor in improving punting performance and my record-keeping takes almost as much time as my selection process.

To show you the benefit of having a range of methods in your armoury, my 6 systems are ranging in profitability this calendar year from plus 77% to minus 22%. Three are winning, three are losing, but overall my systems are returning me 12.6 cents in the dollar profit on turnover.

My ratings method, during this time, is showing 16% P.O.T. and my personal assessments barely above water at plus 1.7%. Two of my systems are quinella systems and are returning me the greatest profits.

wise one
11th June 2002, 09:22 PM
besides looking at the distance of the race you should also look at the class of the race. when I do my selections I look at different factors in 3 year old race to what I look for in a group 2 or group 1 race.also there are some races thaat i would not consider betting on ie 2 yo, hurdles, steeples, WFA and welter races, From my experience they are not good betting races

bet wise bet smart

11th June 2002, 11:33 PM
WFA races are great to bet on - the best horse usually wins, unlike handicap races.
The Cox Plate is the easiest race on the calender to pick the winner - the best WFA horse wins its nearly every year.

The only winner in recent times that may not have been the best WFA horse was Dane Ripper and possibly Solvit - although I took the 20/1 because I could see it leading all the way to victory.

Last year I was amazed that people backed UP when it had little chance of winning at MV. Two years before, people did the same with TTK.

Equine Investor
12th June 2002, 02:53 AM
Don't discard the stable system too readily.

It works terrific!

1. You are betting that a horse will win this campaign, not a particular race.

2. The odds are a lot more in your favour.

3. You can get juicy odds when a horse comes up with a surprise win.


Two important points though...

1/ The horses must be quality horses.

2/ You must set a limit on the number of starts you are prepared to "carry" any horse for.

Finally...pick up any formguide (for metro racing) and look at every runner. You will see many quality runners have won either 1 or more races out of their last five starts.
Some at decent odds.

Rain Lover
12th June 2002, 12:12 PM
Would like to offer several points.
The "stable system" can be fun but don't rely on it as a moneymaker. The main flaw in it is that if you have correctly selected the "best of the best", you will end up punting on Group & Listed races, where you will have several, if not 3,4 or 5 of your stable horses running. It's guaranteed that the odds will be such that you'll lose if you back all of them.

Rain Lover
12th June 2002, 12:13 PM
The "stable system" can be fun but don't rely on it as a moneymaker. The main flaw in it is that if you have correctly selected the "best of the best", you will end up punting on Group & Listed races, where you will have several, if not 3,4 or 5 of your stable horses running. It's guaranteed that the odds will be such that you'll lose if you back all of them.

Equine Investor
12th June 2002, 12:29 PM
Yes, you may lose on the race...but based on backing the next five runs of each runner for example, you would win.

Shaun
12th June 2002, 02:46 PM
This is the system i use...when i spoke about it in the forum a month ago i was told that PPM had a system like this and in the end it failed...if anyone knows the rules they used to pick thier selections would love to know them....to see why they lost and i win...maybe it has something to do with my limit of no more than 20 horses to the stable and only following them for 10 runs if no wins..

12th June 2002, 02:53 PM
" Yes, you may lose on the race...but based on backing the next five runs of each runner for example, you would win."

What kind of logic is that - how can you win LT by placing losing bets???

This so-called stable system is a black book system, whereby you keep your blackbook up to date and current. 000's of people do it and still lose - because:

1. They select the wrong horses to follow.
2. Several of these horses are in the same race - so one is confused on which to back - betting on all results in a loss.
3. A horse is added to the black book (stable) after it has already peaked and is on the way down.
4. A horse runs a good race - say 4th or 5th, whereby it looked like it would have won given more ground - when it fact it was
a peak performance and made to look good by the pace of the race.
5. There horses are starting at short prices.
6. The blackbook or stable gets out of hand, ie you have too many horses in it and you don't know which to cull.

Most people have put together a "stable" will not win due to these factors, unless there initial selection process is sound and they are able to recognise when a horse is "under" or "overs" in the market.

The only "killing" going on is when you eliminate a horse from your stable and it comes out and wins.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-12 15:57 ]</font>

Equine Investor
12th June 2002, 03:08 PM
Chief, we have to agree to disagree here...It is not about winning one race, it is about winning on the horse alone. The chances of your horse winning in five starts (providing your selection criteria is sound) is much greater than finding the winner of the race. What you haven't mentioned are the times when you back 3 horses in the race and the 10/1 plus runner salutes. Especially in high class races it is possible to back more than one horse and still make a decent profit.

A blackbook system is a little different...that is, you see a horse that was unlucky, or won a race well and follow it after the fact. Yes you are bound to lose if this is your only selection criteria. Class is the major factor when selecting a stable, not current form.

As I have said before I select my stable on Class factor and not fitness nor recent performance, if a horse fails to run up to expectations...not necessarily win, within five starts he is sacked from the stable.

Shaun...I know what PPM did, it was called the dark horse system and it had basic flaws.
1. Horses selected were not selected by class, they were selected merely because they won one race each campaign.
2. They would back a horse first up merely because it won first up before without taking into consideration class factors.
3. They would assume that the horse would peak at precisely the same time each preparation and this simply does not happen exactly at the same time each preparation.

That is why their Dark Horse system failed.

You sound like you have the right idea though!

12th June 2002, 03:25 PM
If you lose on the race, winning on the horse alone means nothing.
Better to put your money in the pokies
Put $100 into one machine and lose it.
The take another $50 and turn it into $100.
WOW - YOU WON $50.... GREAT. PITY YOU LOST THE INITIAL $100.

BETTING ON 3 HORSES IN A RACE IS FINE, IF YOU WIN, AS LONG AS ANYONE ONE OF THEM SALUTES - IF YOU CAN'T WIN BY DOING THIS - ITS NOT LOGICAL TO BET IN THE FIRST PLACE.

Equine Investor
12th June 2002, 03:28 PM
O.K. Chief, I'll demonstrate - my other posting is up now.

Shaun
13th June 2002, 11:00 AM
i have a site that is good for blackbook horses they will e-mail you when they are enterd to race http://www.racenet.com.au/blackbook.asp

Equine Investor
13th June 2002, 01:42 PM
Yep, it's a good service Shaun but as soon as you get your email, you have to re-enter it in their database.

Try this one...it's good for 6 weeks and you can auto update all entries at once for a further 6 weeks.

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/bb_index.asp

13th June 2002, 02:06 PM
I use r&s BB.
I haven't updated for several months and I still get emailed horses every week. Sometimes, they even email you 2 days in advance. ie thursday arvo for saturday.