Super 12 Final

[Chuck]

Well we've done it...what next?

I think the tahs will score early, but the crusaders will mow them down

what do you guys think?

[mecurial]

The Waratahs will not even come close. The two teams meet each other at contrasting points in their season. Canterbury are in absolutely sensational form, while the Waratahs have struggled to recapture the form they showed in the early rounds of the season. Canterbury have a wealth of finals experience, whereas the Waratahs have very little. In all fairness to the Hurricances, the Crusdaers should have won by a further 20+ points on Friday night, whereas the Waratahs had a bit of luck in beating the Bulls.

Certainly not the certainty of the Millenium, be it a final and everything, but the Waratahs are nowhere near their optimum at the moment, and even that might not be good enough.

[Jack Daniels]

Waratahs by 8. ;) Wishful thinking I know!

But:

GO THE WARATAHS

[Mr J]

"The two teams meet each other at contrasting points in their season."

Totally disagree. The tahs have just been playing a very different gameplan than what they played earlier on.

"Canterbury are in absolutely sensational form"

Sensational is overrating them. Their counter attack is deadly like always (hello rico gear), but the hurricanes attack made their D look good. Canterbury has had awful defense all year and has been relying on shootouts. They shouldn't have even topped the table. They scored around 3pts for every 2pts they conceeded, where as the tahs were nearly 2 to 1. Tahs have been the team to beat all year, forget these silly shootouts the crusaders have won.

"Canterbury have a wealth of finals experience, whereas the Waratahs have very little."

I don't think this will be important. tahs have handled the pressure so far with so much expected of them. There will also be less pressure on them since they're in christchurch (ie nobody gies them much of a chance).

"In all fairness to the Hurricances, the Crusdaers should have won by a further 20+ points on Friday night,"

No. It just seems this way because they were all over the canes in the first 20. The difference between the 2 teams was turnovers and attack. Canes weren't even close to being strong enough at the breakdown, and they're attack was flatfooted and made the crusaders D look much better than it really was.

"whereas the Waratahs had a bit of luck in beating the Bulls."

??? I was actually at the game, and we were all over them. Sure Habanna missed the easiest try in history, but that wouldn't have mattered. The tahs had a gameplan and stuck to it and it worked. The 2nd half was all about playing defensively and they did that perfectly.

"but the Waratahs are nowhere near their optimum at the moment, and even that might not be good enough."

Their optimum is better than the crusaders. They don't quite have the same counterattacking power, but better defence. The crusaders were a little lucky in sydney, and the tahs were a bit flat thanks to a long 6 weeks.

Tah's will be able to dictate the pace and style of the game better than the crusaders. First of all, our defence is much better than say the hurricanes. This will slow the crusaders down and make the match more of a grind than what they are used to. NSW are suited better for this because of their better defensive capability and superior lineout (really affects crusaders ability to play field position).

I'm confident that we'll put up a good enough fight that I'm flying over to kiwiland for the match. Ok, the crusaders might win by 20, but if this match was played over and over dozens of times, I think it'll be MUCH closer than what people would expect. 'tahs have a good chance, god I hope they take it (I'm probally gonna die over there anyway, better if I go out a winner ;))

[Sportz]

Long time no read Mr J.

[Mr J]

Heh. Well I had to get in when you were all bagging the 'tahs ;)

[Sportz]

I'm not bagging them. They've just got no hope, that's all. :D

[Sportz]

Seriously though, I backed the Crusaders at $4.00 pre-season and normally I would now have a saver on NSW to guarantee a profit. I will probably end up doing that, but I honestly don't think I have to.

[Squirter]

G'day Mr J,

An interesting game coming up come Saturday. If the Tahs play as they did against the Bulls they are going to get done. The game against the Bulls was quite disjointed and in fairness to both teams their GP's was non existant. If the Tahs are going to play defensively as they did against the Bulls then they are in for a long night.

In trying to analize the teams over the comp I would suggest the Tahs have left their form behind in previous games whereas Robbie Deans being the crafty ole coach that he is has only been flogging his players just enough to get them to the business end of the competition when the going gets tough....this was evident mid-way through the second half against the Canes when he started to sub his better players. If you've followed S12 for some years you would know this appears to be a Deans trait, slow starters hard finishers.

Great to see your coming to the land of milk, honey and rugby players....shame that gods not going to help you though. Hope the Chch crowd look after ya an fill ya fulla Kiwi grog.

Cheers.

[Mr J]

"If the Tahs are going to play defensively"

If I was the coach I wouldn't be looking to try and outscore the crusaders in a shootout.

The crusaders definately deserve to be faves, just don't think it will be as easy as most people seem to think. I think if any team can give the crusaders a run for their money in christchurch then it's NSW.

"shame that gods not going to help you though."

If we win? Yeh probally not. If they just got that damn bonus point vs the blues we wouldn't be in this mess. Or if we didn't blow an 8pt or whatever lead vs the crusaders earlier in the season. Or if the ladder system judged for and against fairly.

"an fill ya fulla Kiwi grog."

Gonna need a drink or dozen win or lose.

This is what we aussies do though. We love being the underdogs against you guys and then against all odds crash over the line in the dying stages.

Just looking forward to being in the middle of all the kiwis when we score. Yeh we might lose, but we're expected to lose :D

[Sportz]

If they just got that damn bonus point vs the blues we wouldn't be in this mess.

Yep, as I said at the time, I think the Super 12 was decided on that night. I wouldn't mind being proven wrong, because I'd like to see an Aussie side win it, especially on NZ soil. Just can't see it though.

[Squirter]

Mr J,

Love ya, spent too many years pokin' trucks round your great country not ta respect ya....married ta one of ya too bugger-it....the more shit I chuck at ya the more I expect back....love to be in the stand with ya on Saturdee ta have a few beers, I'd win that one too....wheres that Kenchar.

Lets hope for a good one mate.

Cheers

[Mr J]

Yeh I'm hopin that we at least put up a fight (if we don't win that is), that way I can walk out proud with my tahs jersey. I give NSW a 30% chance to win it, but I'm 100% confident that 30% chance will hit :D

"I'd like to see an Aussie side win it, especially on NZ soil. Just can't see it though."

Yeh, not getting the bonus point really makes it tough. Not like the crusaders aren't hard enough in sydney, but jade? Ouch. But if we do win (there's always a chance even though some people don't think it's much of a chance), it's a classic. Against all odds, vs the mighty and evil crusaders...win or lose it's gonna be a long night and a long trip home. If we lose it'll be a long week. Mourning until the tri-nations. The AB selectors better pick the players that deserve it, and not just use the blues backline.

[Chuck]

Well, Rokocoko has been awful this season, and howlett not far behind him. Muliaina has been great though, so he plays fullback. Umaga at inside, but where does that leave Nonu? Play him on the wing and leave out douggy or Joe, with Conrad Smith at OC or have him at Outside and let Gear, Rokocoko and Howlett fighting for the wing spots?

MY All Black Team:

15. Muliaina
14. Howlett/Gear
13. Nonu
12. Umaga
11. Rokocoko/Gear
10. Carter
9. Marshall
8. Rush
7. MaCaw
6. Collins/Holah
5. Gibbes
4. Jack
3. Hayman
2. Mealamu
1. Meuwws

[Sportz]

Ummm, what's going on? Have Mr J and Chuck switched camps and decided to go for the All Blacks now??? :D

[Desi]

Hope its a great day for you Mr J and that you receive plenty of good old kiwi hospitality!

Personally Im not sure how the game will go- cos Ive been downplaying the Warratahs all season and they are still there (stubborn as a Kalgoorlie fly on a 40 degree day)...Ewen McKenzie, for my money, is this years 'Coach of the Super 12' competition and has definitely been underrated (by me at least lol)...

One thing's for sure, if they play wide (on top of maintaining their great defensive structure- Grey keeping the backs d line fronting up) and use their strong running backs as much as possible (Turinui and Tuqiri are natural line runners and should have lots more support) and get in behind the Crusaders (with a few of those great well timed chip kicks) and keep the forward momentum going (Lyons pounding it up the middle) they will have a great chance...I have always rated the back line and they are really producing on top of a solid forward foundation and great option taking by their halves (who have also been underrated this season- again by me hehe)...

Its difficult trying to win in a conservative point for point encounter with the Crusaders...got to go for the knock out blow early and run for the rest of the match hahahaha!!! Have to show a lot of heart and confidence and express their creative talents (theres plenty there) and I think NSW will do the Aussies proud win or lose!!!

The Crusaders are champions and have been at the top for a long time!!! Memories of last years game loss might be motivation enough...never been a Justin Marshall fan but he is playing out of his skin and expect him to have a big one...nothing more need be said of their forwards and the great R McCaw...the Brumbies showed the way last year how to win and win well so theres a starting point for Ewen...just hope its not a dusting by the mainlanders cos that would be the last thing NSW rugby needs or deserves...

Anyway, good luck and hope you drink your share before Squirt sucks the stadium dry of all the Macs gold lol!!! Going to be a great day either way!!!!

Have one for me!!!

[Squirter]

Desi Desi Desi too much Emu.

Crikey mate I think those Perth nurses have got into your brain....Mac's Gold mate!! ya gotta strain that through last weeks socks to give it some taste....wouldn't even present that to Mr J as he'd think we're still making beer in the washing machine.

'Ranfurly' these days, giant 440 ml can....mothers milk ole son.

Hooray.

[Squirter]

Chuck....Desi,

If ya interested in the complete teams for the A/B trials on Friday go to this address.

[url]www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3291092a10295,00.html

Chuck,

Meuws is playing in Europe somewhere, Rush is not required (going to Wales) and Rokocoko banashed to the 7's team to smarten up his form.
Keep ya eye on this joker for fullback, Sosene Anesi, and Muliaina into center....you may see a couple of bolters into the AB's this year.

Cheers

[Mr J]

"Ewen McKenzie, for my money, is this years 'Coach of the Super 12' competition"

Yeh this is one reason I don't like people saying the 'tahs are out of form. It's just that their gameplan has changed. He keeps telling the media he's not telling them to play pretty, but how to win. And he's done just that.

"got to go for the knock out blow early and run for the rest of the match hahahaha!!!"

Like the brumbies TRIED to do last year? Either way this will be an 80 minute match.

"never been a Justin Marshall fan but he is playing out of his skin and expect him to have a big one..."

Yeh solid game last week. Crusaders can attack from any position. A bit like NSW ;)

Couldn't have asked for a better match up this year. Will be one of the best games to watch this year, if not THE best. If this was in NSW I couldn't imagine us losing. Jade makes this a battle. If Rogers has a magical game, NSW to win by 4 or 5.

[Mr J]

15. Muliaina
14. Howlett/Gear
13. Nonu
12. Umaga
11. Rokocoko/Gear
10. Carter
9. Marshall
8. Rush
7. MaCaw
6. Collins/Holah
5. Gibbes
4. Jack
3. Hayman
2. Mealamu
1. Meuwws

Hell no ;)

Yeh I like anesi and muli both. Rico definately starts for me. BTW, is Hosea his brother? Noone likes Sivivatu? I'd get rid of Howlett and Roko altogether and put Sivivatu at least on the bench. Can't leave out Nonu, I like tacklebreakers at centers and flyers on the wing. Conrad Smith on the bench.

So:

9. Marshell
10. Carter
11. Sivivatu
12. Umaga
13. Nonu
14. Gear
15. Anesi

How's that for speed on the outside?

[Mr J]

That reminds me, the haka won't be the same without carlos leading it.

[Squirter]

Yeah,

Hard to say about that back line....suspect Henry will stick with what he knows till after the Pom tests (they arrive Friday) then he'll have his play during the tri series and finalise in 2006 in his build up to the world cup, so I think Nonu will be a bench player as least for now. Interestingly we'll have to see how Mauger sorts out your mob on Saturday or gets sorted out....would not be surprised to see Umunga shoved in one to 2nd 5/8 and Muliaina at center. Christ, theres too many players on top of their game at the moment so we'll all be wrong....depends on the selectors GP as to the players they pick.
This is going to be Marshalls swan-song probably and he's going to prove a point to the AB selectors for leaving him out of the AB tour last year.

Pity you never saw Buck Shelford (Maori blood) lead the Haka, but thats going back quite a few years now....

If ya interested chuck a couple of bucks on SR3--horse 6 to-day, and look closely at SR6--5.

[Chuck]

kiwi - i think sivivatu plays for the pacific islanders, but i'm not sure

[Squirter]

Nah mate

Don't know what he did in yesteryear but he's lining hinself up for the AB's

[Mr J]

No updates? Well the first 10-15mins was good. The next 50 minutes the tahs went to sleep and the crusaders played some great footy. Then the tahs leave it 5-10 minutes too late for that huge comeback victory. Crusaders were solid, tahs were inconsistent. Considering the first 65 mins the scoreline is a little flattering but they did have a great last 15. Being at Jade was awesome and had more fun at the game than if we'd won it in sydney (3 aussies in the middle of thousands of kiwis is awesome esp when you get something to cheer about). Damn it's cold down there, but I braved it out only wearing my tahs jersey. Alot of under 18s around during the night (watch out). After the game was fine (except the cold), forgot about it (like you do when you don't win) and found some local girls to keep me comfy (ez prey, by this time the local guys were out chasing sheep) ;)

Dunno if I'll make it to NZ again with NSW, but it's definately going to become a ritual for the tri nations.

[Squirter]

G'day Mr. J,

Great to see an honest assessment of the game. We've heard rave reviews of Mckenzie as a coach but I ask the question what the hell was he doing these last couple of games getting his players to kick the ball down the throats of the opposition. Finals footy's damn sight tougher, and your opposition's just as good if not better than yourselves so why give 'em the ball to attack you, and he would have seen in the first few line-outs the Crusaders had worked out ya lineout. The final 10 minutes after the game had been won and Deans had started subbing some of the better players (in readiness for the AB trials on Friday night) he would have learnt a valuable lesson....attack, and the Tahs have some good weapons there for just that. Be a better team for it next year though, subject to how many bugger off to the 'Gropers'. I wonder how much this draining of talent will effect the Reds and Brumbies too, and it will.

Great to see our Kiwi shielas looked after yous, but next time the final's on here in NZ (AUCKLAND) which will be next year of course, slip across and experience the hospitality, jolly sight warmer weather, the beers better, and the shielas walk around with 'wides-on' what more can ya ask for !!!!

Cheers mate,

PS. Hope ya didn't watch the Warriors and the weather yesterday.

[Mr J]

"PS. Hope ya didn't watch the Warriors and the weather yesterday"

Na on the plane by then.

Yeh the kicking was just stupid. High bombs from our own 30 (you wanna be at the 40 or better), hewat and his silly chips kicks, field position kicks down the crusaders throats to give them at a chance to do what they do best. They finally keep the ball in hand and look what happens, try try try. We reall set up 2-3 of your tries. Some loose defence and Mat rogers...he just runs over the damn ball 20 out from his goaline. 2 crusaders charging for the ball, he's the last line of defence and he just runs over it. Doesn't kick it or dive on it. Was funny when rico dropped it over the line.

I think the trick is in the music the crusaders always play before the game. Or maybe it's the horses trampling that footy pitch. Or the huge penis like sword they put in the middle of the field. Nice to see they real cheergirls (nsw never has).

Auckland next year?? Try sydney ;)