Systems on Forum

[Glenno]

I will now introduce a thread to put as many systems on this forum as I can.

As the aim to put the rules of the system, please do not respond to the systems or threads.

[Glenno]

This first system was originally posted by franga back on 22/8/2001. The rules of the system are as follows:

Rule 1: Operate on Sydney and Melbourne meetings.
Rule 2: Consider the top two jockeys there.
Rule 3: Look at all the rides, you back the three horses with the highest win percentage.

[Glenno]

This system was originally posted by Cathy back on 10/9/2001. The rules of the system are as follows:

Rule 1: Take the price of the favourite on the tote as soon as it comes up after the previous race.
Rule 2: If it has firmed with a minute to go and is under $4.00 for the win, back it for the place.
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[Glenno]

This system was originally posted by Bhagwan back on 11/12/2001. The rules of the system are as follows:

Rule 1: Look at all pre-post favourites that have finished second or worse in its last start, but finished no more than 2.2 lengths behind the winner.
Rule 2: Back them each-way if paying $3.00 or more.
Rule 3: Do not back them if paying less than $3.00.
Rule 4: Do not back first-up horses.

[Glenno]

This system was originally posted by Bhagwan back on 10/1/2002. The rules of the system are as follows:

Rule 1: Operate on races with nine to 15 starters (inclusive).
Rule 2: Look at the top two in the tipsters' poll.
Rule 3: Halve the barrier number (maximum of five points).
Rule 4: Add this to its allocated weight (ignore apprentice claims).
Rule 5: Deduct its last-start placing.
Rule 6: Highest score is the selection.

[Glenno]

This system was originally posted by Bhagwan back on 16/1/2002. The rules of the system are as follows:

Rule 1: Look at the top selection in the tipsters' poll.
Rule 2: Compare the top selection in race one with the top selection in race two. The selection is the one with the shorter price of the two in the newspaper.
Rule 3: Now do the same with races three/four, races five/six and races seven/eight.

[xanadu]

G'day Glenno,
I appreciate your attempts to submit possible profit-making strategies for the uninitiated but let's face it, any mechanical betting selection method will not work in the long term. There are a multitude of selection methods which are generally devised retrospectively, meaning there is no guarantee that this pattern of winners will continue in the future.
Accordingly, the punter must give due attention to the true indication of future performance....stable support.

Cheers.

[davez]

although i mostly agree with xanadu, keep em coming glenno, been sometime since i went thru the old threads & there is plenty of wisdom that can be applied in varied ways

[Glenno]

G'day Glenno"

I appreciate your attempts to submit possible profit-making strategies for the uninitiated but let's face it, any mechanical betting selection method will not work in the long term. There are a multitude of selection methods which are generally devised retrospectively, meaning there is no guarantee that this pattern of winners will continue in the future.<O:p</O:p

Accordingly, the punter must give due attention to the true indication of future performance....stable support.

Cheers.


plus


although i mostly agree with xanadu, keep em coming glenno, been sometime since i went thru the old threads & there is plenty of wisdom that can be applied in varied ways
I agree with those comments, but please put them elsewhere.

[Glenno]

This first system was originally posted by Bhagwan back on 15/2/2002. The rules of the system are as follows:

Rule 1: Conscentrate on the TAB first, third and fourth favourites two minutes before jump. (Ignore the second favourite.)
Rule 2: Always treat the favourite as $4.00,even if its paying less than that.
Rule 3: The race must have at least one runner paying $6.00 or more out of the first, second or third favourites, otherwise no bet.
Rule 4: You now dutch the bet by dividing the horses price on the TAB screen into your take-out figure.

[bluetown]

Glenno,
May I suggest on each system you have posted to include the URL of the originating thread ?
This would benefit an option if readers might prefer to read the entire debate on a particular archived post.

[Glenno]

Glenno,
May I suggest on each system you have posted to include the URL of the originating thread ?
This would benefit an option if readers might prefer to read the entire debate on a particular archived post.That's a good idea.

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=75

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=112

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=325

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=400


http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=427 (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=427)

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=492

[davez]

excuse my encouragement, woops now i wasnt sposed to put that here, was i.....

[Glenno]

excuse my encouragement, woops now i wasnt sposed to put that here, was i.....
That's okay, though I will still implement the URL addresses for the systems in the future.

[w924]

Xanadu writes
""I appreciate your attempts to submit possible profit-making strategies for the uninitiated but let's face it, any mechanical betting selection method will not work in the long term. There are a multitude of selection methods which are generally devised retrospectively, meaning there is no guarantee that this pattern of winners will continue in the future.
Accordingly, the punter must give due attention to the true indication of future performance....stable support."'
____________________________________________
Stable support can be a factor, I guess, but Ive never been in a position to identify it and use it well.

How does the ordinary punter know if a short price, or a shortening price is due to stable support and not other factors? I know some people make it thier own business to get on side with particular stables with their ear to the ground, but I cannot imagine that the stable always knows when their horse is going to beat every other horse in a particular race.

Same goes for jockeys. They might know their own horse well, but do they have an unbiased and complete knowledge of their horses's competitors?

Another factor to consider is that I maintain that the stable doesnt always know the true winning chance of their horses. Lee Freedman was one trainer who appeared to me to do a lot of form assessement, and I suspect more trainers are heavily into that now than in days gone by, but as I mentioned elsewhere, some horses appear to win with little , if any ,stable support whatsoever.

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""any mechanical betting selection method will not work in the long term. There are a multitude of selection methods which are generally devised retrospectively, meaning there is no guarantee that this pattern of winners will continue in the future"

Many a mechanical system is created retrospectively and Yes that in itself is is no guarrantee that the trend will continue, however the more selections this has been tested on prior, surely the better the chances of it being a success?

There are some factors that dont seem to change much over the years. favourites, I imagine, are still winning approx 30% of all races?

I'd like to know what todays cummulative updated winning percentages are for last start winners :in Melb, Syd ,Bris and Adeleaide,

:and also winners which were last start winners in the past 7 days or less, 14 days or less , and 21 days or less.

Anyone here know what those percentages are are today and what they were say 10 years ago? ...Perhaps this is all listed on a website somewhere..

There used to be publications avail in australia that would produce these
tables but living overseas means that I know longer have this info at my finger tips

I like the word "filter'" that is used on this forum to describe a refinement of selections, and I am still an advocate of applying mechanical filters to ratings services selections. The trick, I guess, is to use a ratings service that genuinely does its own form and is not swayed by its competitors' selections.

Back in the mid 80's when I bought an existing ratings service and retained the handicapper, I learned much about racing services. The handicapper was able to show me how some ratings services would play games and withold their final ratings and assesed odds until after their competitors had posted. Within the group of ratings services operating at that time, some would would freely exchange their race codes with their opposition, each service closely monitoring each others ratings.

I am sure there is a place for mechanics, esp when applied to consistent ratings services selections. Ive proved that to myself over the years. It took me awhile to adopt that concept..use relaible ratings as a basis for selection and then apply rigid mechanical criteria to come up with a selection and then further apply additional filters, and then backing that horse as many times as it comes up in a filtered plan....ie, each filter being a stand alone plan in itself.


The end result is a portfolio of identical plans for each chosen rating service., and you have the possibility of a horse coming up in several portfolio plans for one particaulr ratings service, but not necessarily that same horse coming up in a different ratings service plans. What I found is that the ratings service does not have to be brilliant, nor show consistent profits or performance in say the Punters Choice assessment tables. This is because I am not betting all of their selections, and staying away from the short priced selections. The main thing I looked for was their ability to rate horses that were double overlays at 8-1 or better in their top three.

Running three services gave me more bets and a better spread of risk.

The Double overlay approach seemed to have got hammered over the years, and I mentioned elsewhere the decline in average winning prices of my bets in Melbourne.

Today, I dont actually use the double overlay method in the same way that i used to. I just select from the top 3 rated horses of the chosen ratings service and then only decide to back them if they are 8-1 or better when the win pool hits the 10 k mark. This is not as accurate as I would like, because I should really be converting the ratings numbers into prices and then looking for double overlays at 8-1 or better if I was to follow the exact path of days gone by..

Some of my selections end up shortening considerably in price over the course of the day so I often end up with winners lat less than 9.00. I prefer this selection method because my initial selections are not starting out as fancied horses or false favourites, and therefore not connected in any way to the considerable media and bookmaker hype that performs its predictable farce.

When in Oz, I used the Australian newspaper market prices as a filter to nab "double overlays" from the ratings services selections and assessed prices. I also used to use the Computercard tables as a filter. I am not saying that either the overnight market prices nor computercard tables were all that marvelous but they formed a constant of mechanical refinement and it produced consistent results over the six years that I backed them with real money and discipline. There is no doubt that by going to the track and securing the best prices, I helped my P.o.t enormously.


Much of what I did ,and do today, may not make much sense. To me it still seems risky to base multiple plans upon a main raw plan...because of the fact that if the raw selections dont win, the refined ones cannot possibly produce a winner either.What those refined plans do, however, is usually capitalise on those winning raw selections. i dont place any staking plan or bet according to price.

Does anyone else operate a portfolio like this..ie. betting a selection according to the number of filters it survives? I would be interested to know.

below is an example:


plan 1. Q
the raw selection..the single selection qualifier is any ratings service rated race after considering their top three ratings in a race, after scratchings, and applying filtering such as no first or 2nd up from a spell, and only one qualifier in in any race.

plan 2 QLSW where the raw selection (Q) is also a Last Start Winner

plan 3 TRQ the raw selection (Q) is also Top Rated by the rating service

plan 4 QNR
the raw selection (Q) which also is Not Rated in the first 4 by the nswtab.com.au tipster

plan 5 QLSWNR
the raw selection (Q) which is also a Last Start Winner and Not Rated

plan 6 TRQLSW

selection which is last start winner and top rated

plan 7 TRQNRLSW
the raw selection which also is Top Rated , Last Start Winner and Not Rated in the first 4 selections on nswtab.com.au

________________________________________________________________


I am also monitoring how many of my winners are not tipped as a " Late Mail" selection on nswtab.com.au. It seems that the late mail co-inciding selections are not faring too well at all, but I dont have enough form history to know for sure.

I am also recording previous winning percentages of each selected horse and their ability on course, distance and track condition, but doubt that I will ever use any of those factors as further filters. In many respects these factors should already have been well taken into account when the ratings service did its initial work.

I invite your ideas and comments

Cheers
Steve

[Glenno]

This system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=588 was originally posted by Bhagwan on 29/3/2002. The rules of the system are as follows:

Rule 1: Operate on races with 12 or more runners.
Rule 2: Using the Wizard formguide, consider those horses on the bottom five places in their poll.
Rule 3: Back all that are paying $6.00 or more before the jump.

[Glenno]

This system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=588 was originally posted by Bhagwan on 29/3/2002. The rules of the system are as follows:

Rule 1: Operate on races where every horse has had eight or more starts.
Rule 2: Consider those horses on the top four in tha average prizemoney.
Rule 3: Of those horses in the top four average prizemoney, back the horse with the highest win/place percentage (back the selection each way).

[Glenno]

This system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=682, was originally posted by Bhagwan on 22/4/2002. The rules of the system are as follows:

Selection plan
Rule 1: Operate on races with eight to 12 runners inclusive.
Rule 2: Consider only horses who are sole 100-pointers in the race on UniTAB ratings (http://www.tabonline.com.au). No bet if more than one horse are 100-pointers.
Rule 3: Must be paying $3.00 or more for the win.

Staking plan
Rule 1: Back the final selections for the place.
Rule 2: The first bet is one unit.
Rule 3: If the selections is unplaced, the next bet is the same as the previous bet.
Rule 3: If the selection places, increase the next bet by one unit unless there is a profit in the series.
Rule 4: If there is a profit in the current series, then start a new betting series.

The recommended starting bank is 150 times the starting bet.

[Glenno]

If you have a comment on a system, please do so at either the URL thread for the system or on http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=9935.

[Glenno]

This system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=873, was originally posted by Bhagwan on 1/6/2002. The rules of the system are as follows:

Rule 1: Consider only the first three TAB favourites two minutes before the jump, as shown on the Teletext screen.
Rule 2: Selection is the middle barrier of the three.
Rule 3: Back it each way, but only if it is paying $3.30 or more for the win. Otherwise, no bet for the race.
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[Dr Pangloss]

Apart from profit, what is missing from every single last one of these systems?

Xanadu's quoted comments above deserve to be engraved upon the punters shrine - you know, that unspoken place of gnashing teeth where every mug punter finally goes to rest beaten, bruised and eternally broke.

[Glenno]

This system is located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1006. The rules are as follows:


Rule 1: Operate on all flat races where every horse has had at least five starts.
Rule 2: Calculate the "win conversion factor" for each horse by diving the number of wins by the number of places (including wins).
Rule 3: The horse with the highest ratio is the selection provided it meets the following criteria:
Rule 3a: Minimum win conversion factor of 0.4.
Rule 3b: Career win/place percentage of 45% or more.
Rule 3c: Finished in top six last start and within 4.5 lengths of the leader.

[xanadu]

Whooooooah!!! Dr Pangloss,

Take a Bex, have a cup of tea and a good lie down....don't get your "knickers" in a knot.
"Me thinks ye protesteth too much..."
Very entertaining though.
I haven't replied since you posted as I only noticed it today.
You've given me a great deal of mirth.

[Dr Pangloss]

Thats what I needed, a powdered Bex or two.

Now that my head is clear and the pulse rate down to normal what did you think of our friend's PBent publication? Just thinking of silly stupid backfitting systems gets me me me me me ..........time for another Bex.

[crash]

'Apart from profit, what is missing from every single last one of these systems?'

I guess the answer to that is long term profit being number 1 reason as mentioned.

No. 2, and this is the biggy, being the total lack of any systems ability to 'reason'.

Possible success for any system is adding reason to it's selections but then it's no longer a purely mechanical system.

Systems are a great way for new punters to enter the fray without too much damage but the end goal is to be able to 'do the form'. Only then has a punter any hope of being able to eventually [and only in rare cases if your good enough] make small % profits.

[TWOBETS]

Hi crash: hope you don't mind the header, I just couldn't help myself.

Just wanted to say I don't agree on your opinion of systems in general. I was a total failure at form assessment and over the long term never managed to show a profit. I now have daily reliable profit using a system so simple it beggars belief.

Just because the systems you may have experienced didn't pan out doesn't mean all systems are shyte. The trick is in finding which variables matter at what time.

[davez]

I now have daily reliable profit using a system so simple it beggars belief.

keep it close to your chest twobets, lest the forum curse has its evil way with you!

[crash]

'Hi crash: hope you don't mind the header, I just couldn't help myself.'

Hi 2 bets, no I don't mind. Heck, with only 13 post on the board I'd be being uncivil to take offense from a newbie. I don't even mind if you disagree with my opinion on systems either but tell me something, after which one of your 2 bets did you decide your system was a long term winner ? [sorry, I couldn't help myself] 8-)

[TWOBETS]

Ouche!

[Glenno]

This system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=862, was created by Numerator on 31/5/2002. The rules are as follows:

Rule 1: Operate on Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane meetings.
Rule 2: Only look at TAB numbers 5, 6, 7 and 8 after morning scratchings.
Rule 3a: The BACKER UPPERS selection is any of these horses whose latest race was 5, 6, 7 or 8 days ago. It must be the only BACKER UPPERS qualifier amongst those numbers in the race.
Rule 3b: The HI STRIKERS selection is any of the horses whose win/place percentage for all its starts is 56.78 percent or more from at least 5 life starts. It must be the only HI STRIKERS qualifier amongst those numbers in the race.
Rule 3c: Any final selections from the above 2 systems that are qualify for both BACKER UPPERS and HI STRIKERS qualify as STUNNERS and are backed for triple the normal bet.

[Glenno]

If you have a comment on a system, please do so at either the URL thread for the system or on http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=9935
I'm repeating this because of recent comments on this thread.

[Glenno]

This system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1058, was originally posted by Reenster back on 28/6/2002. The rules of the system are as follows:

Rule 1:Operate on Saturday Class (over $40,000) races only.
Rule 2: Eliminate 2YO and 3YO races.
Rule 3: Do not operate on set-weight or weight-for-age races.
Rule 4: Take the minimum weight (ignoring apprentice claims) and add 3.5kg. This is called the midweight.
Rule 5: Add 1.5kg to and subtract 1.5kg from the midweight. This 3kg range is called the weight range. Selections must fall within the weight range.
Rule 6: Look at the last three starts of each runner in the weight range.
Qualifiers are runners whose last three starts add up to 11 or less (spells count as 10).
Rule 7: Look at the last two starts of each qualifier. Runners whose last two starts add up to 4 or less are the selections.
Rule 8: If more than one selection in a race, back both if at least 2/1 can be obtained. Otherwise back the runner at the longer odds.

Reenster comments: "The idea seems to be to catch in-form runners that the handicapper has missed or under handicapped.

"Other filters such as wet track ability (especially in Melbourne) could be used to modify selections."

[Glenno]

The system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1009, was created by dolly007 on 20/6/2005. The systems is as follows:

Rule 1: If the horse is selected as the 1, 2 or 3 most favoured by the newspaper opinion pollsters, then give the horse one point.
Rule 2:If the horse's TAB number is between number one and up to and including number six , then give the horse one point.
Rule 3: If the horse is in the top four shortest price horses give it one point.
Rule 4: If the horse finished in the first four in its previous start, then give the horse one point.
Rule 5: If the horse's last start was no more than 21 days ago, then give the horse one point.
Rule 6: If the horse's barrier position is between 1 and 12, then give the horse one point.
Rule 7: If the horse has won at least one of its last three starts in the same city at a major metropoltian track, then give the horse one point.
Rule 8: If the horse has either one of the top three jockeys riding it or is trained by one of the top three trainers, then give the horse one point.
Rule 9: If the horse is 4kg or heaiver than the lowest weighted horse, then give the horse one point.
Rule 10: If the horse is aged between two years and five years (inclusive), then give the horse one point.

dolly007 comments: "If your selection receives seven or more points out of the ten, then statistically your selected horse has a much better chnace than average of winning and you can therefore back it whith added confidence."
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[Glenno]

The system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1009, was created by dolly007 on 20/6/2005. The systems is as follows:

Rule 1: If the horse is selected as the 1, 2 or 3 most favoured by the newspaper opinion pollsters, then give the horse one point.
Rule 2:If the horse's TAB number is between number one and up to and including number six , then give the horse one point.
Rule 3: If the horse is in the top four shortest price horses give it one point.
Rule 4: If the horse finished in the first four in its previous start, then give the horse one point.
Rule 5: If the horse's last start was no more than 21 days ago, then give the horse one point.
Rule 6: If the horse's barrier position is between 1 and 12, then give the horse one point.
Rule 7: If the horse has won at least one of its last three starts in the same city at a major metropoltian track, then give the horse one point.
Rule 8: If the horse has either one of the top three jockeys riding it or is trained by one of the top three trainers, then give the horse one point.
Rule 9: If the horse is 4kg or heaiver than the lowest weighted horse, then give the horse one point.
Rule 10: If the horse is aged between two years and five years (inclusive), then give the horse one point.

dolly007 comments: "If your selection receives seven or more points out of the ten, then statistically your selected horse has a much better chnace than average of winning and you can therefore back it whith added confidence."
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The system was created on 20/6/2002.

[Glenno]

The system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1155, was created by Bhagwan on 11/7/2005.

Rule 1: Look at the second and third favourites on the Teletext TAB market movers three minutes before jump.

Rule 2: The selection is the one with the best last 2 starts once you add them together. (We dont give a figure to the resuming shown, just go back to an actual run. If one horse has had one career run and the other has had two or more, we always back the more experienced runner.)

[Glenno]

The system... was created by Bhagwan on 11/7/2005.
That was incorrect. The correction was it was created on 11/7/2002.

[Glenno]

The system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1353, was created by enjay on 9/8/2002.

Rule 1: Consider only the top jockey on premiership table in each state.
Rule 2: Of the rides, consider only those whose last start was within 28 days.
Rule 3: The single bet is the ride with highest win percentage for that meeting.

[Glenno]

The system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1424, was created by kiwigal on 19/8/2002. The rules are as follows:

Rule One
Ø Any horse that has won its last race and is running within ten days of its last race is given 40 points.
Ø Any horse that has placed second in its last race and is running within ten days of its last race is given 20 points.
Ø Any horse that has placed third in its last race and is running within ten days of its last race is given 10 points.

Rule Two
Ø Any horse that is running the exact same distance as its last start gets 10 points.
Ø Any horse that has won or placed in its last race running the exact same distance as this race gets 20 points.

Rule Three
Ø Any horse carrying the same weight as its last race gets 20 points.
Ø Any horse carrying less weight in this race compared to what it carried at its last start gets 30 points.

Rule Four
Ø Any horse with a dividend of $3 or less gets 40 points.
Ø Any horse with a dividend of $6 or less gets 20 points.
Ø Any horse with a dividend of $8 or more gets 5 points.

Rule Five
Ø Any horse that ran at a city race in its last start gets 50 points.
Ø Any horse that ran at a track other then a city race in its last start gets 20 points.

Points are awarded to horses using a selection criteria and the animal with the highest number of points qualifies as the best selection of the race.

[Glenno]

The system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1281, was created by hermes on 24/8/2002. The rules are as follows:

Rule 1: Find the runner with the highest QTAB rating among those TAB numbers lower than the number of the favourite. Bet $4 to win.
Rule 2: Find the runner with the highest QTAB rating among those TAB numbers higher than the number of the favourite. Bet $3 to win.
Rule 3: Where the favourite is TAB number one, take the two highest QTAB ratings in the field (but not the favourite). Bet $4 on the lower TAB number, $3 on the higher.

[Glenno]

The system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1421, was created by Bhagwan on 18/8/2002. The rules are as follows:

Rule 1: We coscentrate on TAB numbers 2 to 7 (inclusive). We do not replace any that maybe scratched.
Rule 2: We bet on only those horses that finished fourth or worse last start. (There will usually be more than one horse per race.)
Rule 3: Delete any that are resuming or any having their first carrer start.
Rule 4: Staking Method: TAB numbers 2-3, bet $4.00 win; TAB numbers 4-5, bet $3.00 win; TAB numbers 6-7, bet $2.00 win.

[Glenno]

The system, located at a, was created by hermes on 10/9/2002. The rules are as follows:

Rule 1: Races of 14 or less runners only.
Rule 2: Country races weekdays preferred.
Rule 3: Good or fast tracks only.
Rule 4: Only consider TABs 2-3, 4-5 and 6-7. Don't replace scratchings.
Rule 5: Look at the QTAB rating of the favourite (or the runner you believe will start favourite at jump). Now search the TAB 2-7 range for two runners with ratings directly below the favourite. For example, if the fave is rated 100 look for 99, then 98, then 97 and so on.
Rule 6: Maximum of two selections.
Rule 7: If all runners 2-7 are rated above the favourite, no bet.

hermes comments: "This system is a direct spin-off from some recent posts, mainly that of Bhagwan. It works OK on paper.

"Often, where the favourite is not the highest rated runner, there is only one selection.

"I've tested this over 120-plus races for a profit on turnover of 7.8 per cent. Promising. What is interesting is that it works better than looking at runners rated better than the favourite.

"As a general observation, with these sort of systems you need filters that pull both ways - one up and one down. By only looking at TAB numbers two to seven you already have a filter that places you in the statistically rich band of starters. To add to this another filter that looks for quality (those rated above the favourite) won't do as well as one that filters out some quality (those rated below the favourite). Thus in Bhagwan's original post, he filtered out last start placegetters - ostensibly good runners. I think that is usually the right type of move - one filter up (only TAB numbers two to seven), one filter down (only last start failures)."

The staking plan he recommends is as per Bhagwan's sensational bad horse method. That is, if TAB number two or three, bet four units; if TAB number four or five, bet three units; if TAB number six or seven, bet two units.
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[Glenno]

The system, located at a, was created by hermes on 10/9/2002.<!-- / message -->
URL: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1566

[Glenno]

The system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1601, was created by ubetido on 15/9/2002. The rules are as follows:

Rule 1: Only look at pre post favourite or equal favourites
Rule 2: Has to be 5/2 ($3.50) or more in the prepost.
Rule 3: Must have form figures of 11 or 21 at its last two starts.
Rule 4: Must have had at least four runs in this time in.
Rule 5: Must have run 21 days or less.
Rule 6: Distance must be within 250 metres up or down from last start.
Rule 7: Last run must have been on a city track.

ubetido comments: "Did some research with this and had some interesting results especially for the place longest run of outs was four if memory serves me correct.

"With all the wisdom in this forum a appropriate staking plan to maximise profit and minimise loss may be ideal.

"There it is quite simple check it out with your own research you may be able to improve on it."

[Glenno]

The system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1622, was created by Fryingpan on 19/9/2002. The rules are as follows:

Rule 1: Count up in a race the total of horses with tabq rating of 94 or bette
Rule 2: Add one to this total to give the expected dividend.
Rule 3: Find amongst those which have 94 or better and came fifth or better last start which meet the dividend.
Rule 4: If the dividend is below the expected dividend then bet only if there is one selectable. Two is the maximum if at the expected dividend and bet on three horses only if the dividend is 50 per cent above the expected dividend, etc (give or take 50 cents).

Fryingpan comments: "This post follows on from Bhagwan's amazing crappy staking plan. It's based on ability and on distribution of ability in a given race.

"The overall result is finding value amongst distribution of ability."
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[Glenno]

The system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1656, was developed by several members (form_pro, trench_digger, shy, Equine_Investor, TESSAROSSA, darkydog2002, croft, enjay and Bhagwan) between 26/9/2002 and 6/10/2002. The rules are as follows:

Rule 1: Must be in the top five of win/place percentage.
Rule 2: Up 200 metres (maximum) on last start; down 0 metres on last start.
Rule 3: Must be paying at least $2 for the win with 15 minutes to race time.
Rule 4: Horse must have won once this preparation and must have not had a break of more than 30 days between runs.
Rule 5: Not going up more then three kilograms in weight from last start.
Rule 6: Wizard weight rating 91 to 100.
Rule 7: Wizard time rating 92 to 100.
Rule 8: Wizard field strength -20 to +1.5.
Rule 9: Jockey must have strike rate of 1 in 6 or better.
Rule 10: Within 2.5 lengths of winner last start.
Rule 11: Minimum of four starts in this preparation.
Rule 12: Age three, four or five years old.
Rule 13: Ran first, second or third last start; 1000-1600 within two lenghts; 1600-2000 within 3 lengths.
Rule 14: Must have the lettter R in its name.
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[Glenno]

The system, located at http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1760, was created by Bhagwan on 16/10/2002. The rules are as follows:

Rule 1: The race distance has to be exactly 1200 metres only
Rule 2: Must be a last start winner by 1.8 lengths or more
Rule 3: Barrier number two to 12 (inclusive).
Rule 4: Field size can be anything except 10, 11 or 12 starters.
Rule 5: 12 to 20 days since last start.
Rule 6: Must be 7/2 ($4.50) or over in newspaper pre-post market.

[Glenno]

URL: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1866
Username: Bhagwan
Date: 1/11/2002

Rule 1: Target the horses with TABQ (TAB Queensland) weight ratings of 100 points.
Rule 2: No bet if 2 or more 100-pointers in the same race.
Rule 3: Bet only in races with eight to 12 starters only.
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[Glenno]

URL: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1906
Username: Bhagwan
Date: 7/11/2002

Rule 1: Must have run fifth or worse last start in last seven days or less.
Rule 2: Must of run first or second at second last start.
Rule 3: TAB No. 1-8.
Rule 4: Distance change from last start must be between -350 and +150 metres.
Rule 5: Back all the final selections.

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[Glenno]

URL: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1822
Username: Bhagwan
Date: 25/10/2002

Rule 1: Last start winner in last seven days.
Rule 2: Distance 1200 to 1600 metres.
Rule 3: Field size nine to 13 runners.
Rule 4: TAB numbers 5 to 12.

[Glenno]

URL: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1821
Username: Equine_Investor
Date: 25/10/2002

Rule 1: You need the Sportsman (or similar) giving the total prizemoney for each race your horse has competed in.
Rule 2: You allocate prizemoney from that race on lengths from winner. [For example, if your runner won the race of $100,000 prizemoney you give him $100,000. If your runner ran third by 2.5 lengths, you give him $100,000 divided by 2.5 = $40,000. If your runner ran 8th 9.6 lengths behind the winner you allocate $100,000 divided by 9.6 = $10,417 (rounded up).]
Rule 3: You then add up all the prizemoney from every runner in today's race. You divide your runners total prizemoney (calculated by you) into the total of the field. Anything above this price is "overs".

Equine_Investor comments: "Play around with it, you may be surprised at some results etc.
"Any input positive or negative (constructive) welcome.
"Bear in mind it's the rough workings of a raving lunatic with too much time on his hands and there are other factors which should also be considered."

[Glenno]

URL: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1978
Username: Bhagwan
Date: 20/11/2002

Rule 1: Operate on races five, six and seven only.
Rule 2: Must be priced between 7/1 ($8) and 11/1 ($12) in newspaper pre-post market.
Rule 3: Barriers 1 to 5.
Rule 4: TAB numbers 1 to 11.
Rule 5: Must have had one, two or three prior career starts.

Bhagwan comments: "We target race five, six and seven only because these are usually better quality races than the first half of the program plus its a simple way of minimising the number of bets on a given venue."

[Bhagwan]

Hi Glenno,
Thanks for your input,

Rule 5 should read, career wins 1-3 only (as per original post) , not career starts .

The plan is still showing a profit after all this time suprisingly.

Cheers.

[Glenno]

Hi Glenno,
Thanks for your input,

Rule 5 should read, career wins 1-3 only (as per original post) , not career starts .

The plan is still showing a profit after all this time suprisingly.

Cheers.Thank you for the correction.

Thank you for an update on the system, considering it is been about three systems since the system was introduced.

[Glenno]

Thank you for an update on the system, considering it is been about three systems since the system was introduced.
That should have read "...it has been about three years since the system was introduced."

[Glenno]

URL: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=2021
Username: Bhagwan
Date: 1/12/2002

Rule 1: Field 5-8 runners only.
Rule 2: Distance 1100-3600 metres.
Rule 3: Finised ninth or worse last start (includes resumers).
Rule 4: Must have won or placed at track.
Rule 5: Must have won or placed at the distance.
Rule 6: If one or more selections, back them all at level stakes.

[Glenno]

URL: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=2060
Username: Bhagwan
Date: 9/12/2002

Rule 1: Focus on TAB numbers 1-4 only. (Don't replace a number if there is a scratching.)
Rule 2: Field size after scratchings 7-14 only.
Rule 3: Barriers 1-3 only.
Rule 4: Pre-post (newspaper) market price $4.50-$12.
Rule 5: If one or more selections , back them all.

[Glenno]

URL: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=2260
Username: sentabool
Date: 28/2/2003

Rule 1: Must not be carrying any more than 58kg.
Rule 2: Must be ranked in the top 60% of runners when ranked by average prize money. (For example, in a ten-horse race, consider the top six runners.)
Rule 3: Ridden by a top jockey (a jockey is one with a strike rate on the jockey tables of 6.0 or less) or a jockey that have won on the horse before.
Rule 4: Won on track condition (if slow or heavy track is involved).
Rule 5: Last run within 30 days unless good fresh record.
Rule 6: Win percentage greater than 20%.

sentabool comments: "I don't necessarily use all of these filters for all methods - it's a bit of trial and error but generally they have served me well.

"Also what I tend to do is if a selection fails on the filters I don't discard it as a bet - just throw it into a "speculative" category with a largely reduced bet - sometimes only $1. Over time this allows you to continue to monitor the base selection method and the impact of the filters. I have trashed many selection methods using this approach (and saved lots in the process)."

[Glenno]

URL: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1335
Username: EquineInvestor
Date: 8/8/2002

Rule 1: Consider only the favourites in each race.
Rule 2: Must be in top 5 average prizemoney.
Rule 3: Must have wins in today's class or higher.
Rule 4: Must not have been beaten by more than 3 lengths last start.
Rule 5: Must have minimum of 40% place strike rate.
Rule 6: No jumps races, maiden races or wet tracks.

[Glenno]

URL: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=2393
Username: Bhagwan
Date: 22/3/2003

Rule 1: Bets are placed one minute before the jump.
Rule 2: Back the TAB favourite that won its last start.
Rule 3: Must not have won three on end.

The staking plan recommended was that you divide the price of the second favourite into a fixed take out figure. That resulting figure is then placed onto the selected first favourite.

[Glenno]

URL: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=2689
Username: partypooper
Date: 17/5/2003 to 20/5/2003

Rule 1: Consider only pre-post favourites who are last-start winners.
Rule 2: Last race within 21 days (inclusive).
Rule 3: Must have run first, second or third in its second-last start.
Rule 4: Last run must have been on a metropolitan track on a Saturday.
Rule 5: Last run within 100 metres of today's distance.
Rule 6: Must have a Wizard weight rating of 91 to 100 inclusive.
Rule 7: Must have a Wizard time rating of 92 to 100 inclusive.
Rule 8: The Wizard field strength figure must be from -20 to +1.5 inclusive.
Rule 9: Delete all two-year-old races, jumps races and races for fillies and mares only.