Wednesday May 25

[xptdriver]

Gday All

attached are the ratings for todays racing around the country

good luck if you have a bet

[xptdriver]

Gday All

there are a couple of system horses running today... good luck if you choos to have a bet

SYSTEM 1

SYS 1: 25/05/2005 SANDOWN
MR 3 # 1 1362 REEF BEACH
SYS 1: 25/05/2005 CANTERBURY
SR 6 # 5 5x11 DAIJOBO'S SUCCESS

[moeee]

R3 No1 REEF BEACH Too short for me,but get in the queue now.

Trifecta 1 to beat 2,3,6 cost $6

R4 No5 ROYAL RULE Not sure why this one came up,but it is at good odds.

$8 Eachway

R6 No6 BLUEBERRY FIELD Perfectly placed,but unders.

Quinella 2 and 6 for $2

Outlay $24

[moeee]

Refuse to embarass myself any further so shall not post my tips until I get a better handle on it.

But still would like to know,XPTDRIVER,the significance of your ratings.
Is there a margin difference between the 100 rated and,say, a 85 rated animal.
I wish to frame a market.

[xptdriver]

Refuse to embarass myself any further so shall not post my tips until I get a better handle on it.

But still would like to know,XPTDRIVER,the significance of your ratings.
Is there a margin difference between the 100 rated and,say, a 85 rated animal.
I wish to frame a market.

Gday mo

A while back I explained how the numbers I use are quite often adjusted because some horses score more than 100 using my ratings methods, and I convert them back to a max figure of 100.. I used to do that to all races but now only do it races where the top rated horse is scoring more than 100.. (thats why quite often a top rater can be way less than 100) A 100 point top rater can be a good thing in my opinion, but that depends a lot on the gap between it and the next best. If i have say a 100 rater then a 50 pointer as 2nd rated chance, I would expect the 100 pointer to be very short indeed.;. Having said that a 70 point top rater can also be a good thing.. it all has to do with what the horse is against... the ratings are comparitive for today's race.. If I have a 100 pointer with an * I think that it is a good thing and "get on" They have a high strike rate but are not at flash odds, but you can do worse than backing them.. I think there was one today and it won

As an aside at the moment I am staking my top selection using the 9/4 staking plan I found on this site.. It has taken a 5% loss on flat stakes and turned it into a 31% profit over about 330 bets.. I will keep playing with it for a while.. although it can break your heart (and bank) Today as an example in the 11 bet cycle I had one winner at odds on, so the last bet becomes 36 units ($360) It was on professional lady at Belmont... they are still looking for that..you then rule a line and start a new cycle and ya know what happens then ofcourse.. the very next bet which is only 2 units wins in Brisbane (come in Spanner) at $7.80, so does the next one at $3.70 (Bella Carona) and the next at $2.90 (scone) But hey thats the punt :)

A an example below is a priced market for the last in Brisbane (a winning race ofcourse :) )

BRISBANE RACE 8
1 Come In Spanner 100 $1.74
4 Call Me Victor 52 $7.24
3 Geeteehaycho 44 $9.65
16 Piccawar 40 $13.36
9 Oliver's Magic 38 $17.37
18 Swap 36 $21.72
14 Pop Will 33 $28.95
5 O'mee Boy 32 $43.43
6 Tornado Kid 32 $43.43
10 High Court 31 $43.43
13 Mr Hornblower 31 $43.43
17 Initial Star 30 $43.43
7 Senart 24 $57.91

The 100 rater won at $7.80 (wish it happened like that more often) 10 ran second (TAB Price 19.80) and 3 ran third $3.80 FAV .. As you can see I thought GTHO should have been about 9 or 10$, but was, in my opinion overbet... This is one of the rare times I get it right and the punters (TAB punters) get it wrong, and if you bet to prices you would have picked up a better than 4 X overlay, which isn't too shabby.... in anybody's books

[moeee]

Gday mo

Today as an example in the 11 bet cycle I had one winner at odds on, so the last bet becomes 36 units ($360) It was on professional lady at Belmont... they are still looking for that..you then rule a line and start a new cycle and ya know what happens then ofcourse.. the very next bet which is only 2 units wins in Brisbane (come in Spanner) at $7.80, so does the next one at $3.70 (Bella Carona) and the next at $2.90 (scone) But hey thats the punt :)


Thank you very much for the sample Race.

And the above story just shows the ridiculous idea of betting the next race dependant on what happens in the previous.
Not knocking you,But even level stakes is more rational.

Don't suppose you could frame this market on this hypotheticak race based on your ratings?

Joe Mover 100
Foxy Lady 85
Pollyanna 50
Mars Bar 45
Cop That 25
Missing Lens 10

Thanks.

[xptdriver]

Thank you very much for the sample Race.

And the above story just shows the ridiculous idea of betting the next race dependant on what happens in the previous.
Not knocking you,But even level stakes is more rational.

Don't suppose you could frame this market on this hypotheticak race based on your ratings?

Joe Mover 100
Foxy Lady 85
Pollyanna 50
Mars Bar 45
Cop That 25
Missing Lens 10

Thanks.


Gday Mo

the prices would come out like this in a market set at 116% to attempt to mirror the TAB market

As for your comment re the staking plan.. as I say each to their own.. that same plan has returned 25.6% profit on the last 423 top rated selections that, have on a flat staking basis returned just over a 4% loss.. I think I may stick to the staking plan...

Your race:

Joe Mover 100 $1.84
Foxy Lady 85 $3.29
Pollyanna 50 $7.67
Mars Bar 45 $10.22
Cop that 25 $18.40
Missing Lens 10 $30.67

[moeee]

Gday Mo


As for your comment re the staking plan.. as I say each to their own.. that same plan has returned 25.6% profit on the last 423 top rated selections that, have on a flat staking basis returned just over a 4% loss.. I think I may stick to the staking plan...

Again obliged to you xptdriver.
Well done with your staking plan.
Like I said,people who bet level stakes don,t know what they are missing!

Wonder if your plan could return a profit on the roulette wheel?