Selection Rule 1

[becareful]

Brumby,

1. Identify horses that are going to be in the $8-$20 range.
2. Do my own analysis to come up with what I consider the realistic chances of each horse identified in part 1 is (This bit is the "trade secret" part!) and work out my "good bet price". eg. If my analysis gives horse a 10% chance then I would look for a price of at least $11 (allowing a 10% margin - this margin varies depending on pool size, etc)
3. Few minutes before race see if any horses seem likely to start with a TAB price above my good bet price - these are the ones to watch
4. If possible watch selected horses behind barriers and as they are loaded
5. If selected horses still above my bet price AND they look OK as they go into barriers then place bet when all horses are loaded (ie. last few seconds before jump)

Pre-post odds - I don't care about starting prices, unless a horse falls below $4, from outside that level.

The last thing i look at are % and $$$$.

In b/t about 6-8 things.

Good question.

If both horses are "overs" one can bet on both using an appropriate staking plan.

I now use different betting approaches to this problem.

If my main system selects a horse, i will only bet if its paying more than $4, excluding quality group 1 races, where horses like Northerly, Lonhro etc are involved. Or a horse has a superior speed rating for sprints.

For my new roughies method, I place bets independently from my other method.

So i may have 2 or 3 bets on a race.
1 main selection only
1-2 roughies - smaller stake.

Total stake will be such that regardless of which horse wins/places - I will make a good profit.

[Equine Investor]

An important consideration when formulating any staking plan is if the selection method does not at least break even at level stakes then no staking plan will work in the longrun.

[Big Orange]

Brumby,

As far as the "value threshold" goes, in almost all cases I only focus on my top rated, second-top rated, or equal second-top rated horses for potential overlays. I can sometimes bet the three horses in a race but this only happens when I've confidently rated the public favourite quite unfavourably. These are usually good betting races for me. If I go much deeper than my top 3, at any time, the strike rate and profitability is prone to going out the window.

Agree with Big Pineapple (sorry Big Orange)

Even if a horse is 30/1 and looks to be double the price it should be, if it isn't in your top 3 picks - it probably ain't going to win.

I tipped County Tyrone for example on Saturday - it was 20/1 in the paper, started at $14. It was my third pick in the race, so it qualified.

Remember good odds doesn't equal value, unless the horse has a realistic chance of placing or winnning.

Most horses which are at long odds deserve to be - the key is to find the horses which DON'T DESERVE TO BE AT LONG ODDS.

Sometimes horses can be 20/1 to 30/1 in the market, when they really should be 10/1 or even as low as 8/1. Identifying these horses is the trick, whether you use Speed ratings or your "Top 6" criteria it doesn't matter as long as you can find these bets you're a happy punter.

[becareful]

Brumby - I basically bet on any horses that exceed my value criteria - as I mentioned I don't look at horses under about $8 but if there are 2 horses in the race that qualify I will bet on both of them (eg. if I rate 2 horses both at 10% and one is $12 and the other $13 then I will bet both). As for the argument that there is another horse in the race with a much better chance of winning - SO WHAT? Lets say I have 10 races with a 10% chance in each - on average I will only be on the winner in one of those races - but if it pays $12 then I will have a 20% profit on turnover on average.

Chief - I disagree with the "it must be in your top 3 picks" - how often does a horse not in your top 3 win? Probably quite often. The important thing is are the odds above the price it should be. If a horse is showing $20 but has a 1/15 chance of winning then it is a good bet - it will probably not win but as long as it wins more often than 1 in 20 then in the long run you will be ahead.

It probably happens quite often for you, but not for me.

If you have 3 picks and can't win 2/3 races -you should look for another hobbie.




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-13 00:22 ]</font>

[becareful]

Chief - my strike rate is about 10.5% and my average dividend is about $11.40 - good enough for me! :smile:

[Privateer]

The absolute first must be fitness.

Forget market prices, barriers, jockeys, trainers, strike rates and everything else.

If a horse isn't fit it isn't worth risking your money on it.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-06-14 13:21 ]</font>

[Placegetter]

On 2002-06-14 13:20, Privateer wrote:
If a horse isn't fit it isn't worth risking your money on it.


Okay Privateer, I'm curious now. I pick up the local rag on a Friday night (or racing paper or whatever), how do I tell if the horse is fit?

I know that you don't care if a horse is first up. Do we really rely on barrier trials?

Placegetter

PS. How are those four inch earrings chief suggested you get recently?

He must mean by looking at them.
A bloke calling himself Prophet on the forum at RacingandSports, reckons he can tell how fit a horse is by looking at it.

I go to the races every 2nd week, yet when I look at them, most look fit - after all they are all racehorses.

One thing that you're supposed to look for is six pack chest. Shogun Lodge is a good example - when he's fit he looks very muscular, when he's not he looks heavy.

You need a trained eye I guess to be really good at it.

[Privateer]

If deadly serious and you consider fitness to be a prime factor you then need to track a horse from the beginning of a campaign via trackwork and barrier trials. Of course you are limited somewhat by the amount of information available but there is still plenty to occupy yourself with.

There are a few little clues (which I do not intend to share) that can be picked up by analysing trackwork times and barier trial results.

Then again, as Chief suggests, there is the "trained eye". Look for some of these when next at the races:

To begin with, look at the horse's conformation. Does he have low soles that may be prone to stone bruising? Is he a touch weak behind the saddle, lacking rounding and engaging muscles?

Look at the abdomen for signs of a heave line during respiration.

Muscular definition, especially on the crest, shoulders, loins, hindquarters, forearm and thigh.

When you see a horse sweating, don't worry if the sweat is clear.

And, no, I won't be providing night classes in equine anatomy.

Privateer

[Fryingpan]

One of my first steps is to check out this site which I've made to click on some internet sites. I look around to see if the fields are worth considering. eg last Wednesday at Sandown not many good riders were on the better horses.... it's about checking the validity of the form you use to compare each horse.

http://au.geocities.com/findlg/win


Everyone is welcome to try it out. It's a bit like having your favourites on a web page. If you save this one web page, you have a lot of links at your disposal.

There's only one link which is password protected, otherwise feel free to use it anytime. You can get to this forum via the "Free Ratings" link.