Staking to win

[baco60]

STAKING TO WIN

Most punters spend 99% of their time trying to find winners. Betting smart is just as important but attracts about 1% of a punters attention. This page will help you sort good staking ideas from bad and maybe help you maximise your winnings at the races.

1. STAKING PLANS

A systematic approach to wagering is essential to long-term success but many popular staking plans are flawed and extremely dangerous.

The Martingale System is almost as old as racing itself and on face value seems sound. It is simply betting enough on each selection to win back all you have lost in a sequence of bets plus your initial target. For example if you are 20 units behind in a betting series and your profit target is 25 units and your next bet is a $5 chance, you stake $11 to profit $44. This recoups your 20 lost and just about gets your 25 target.

Clearly the problem with this method is the dreaded run of outs. A sequence of 10 losers straight if betting $5 chances is likely to happen regularly. The 11th bet would be some extraordinary amount of money that most bookies wouldn’t accept in order to win the modest target that was originally set. Obviously a dumb way to bet.

Progression betting methods of varying types are similar to the Martingale in that they expect a winner on a regular basis. Unfortunately it isn’t always so neat. Building your bet size up as a losing streak lengthens is both psychologically tough and mathematically stupid. Some selection and ratings “services” pin their hopes for success on progressive staking. They clearly have no faith in the selections and hide behind some convoluted bet placement scheme, which cannot and will not turn losing into winning

There is a mathematical formula known as the Kelly Criterion that calculates the “correct” amount to wager on each selection based on winning strike rates and average winning dividends. Originally designed for casino games, it has been adapted to the racetrack but it is also flawed.

Kelly tells us to bet a certain percentage of the bank on each selection and the figure is adjusted after each bet. The bet obviously decreases after each loser as the bank is decreasing also. When we finally crack a winner, we are staking the lowest amount since the last winner. The bet size increases after the winner but unless our very next bet also wins, we are on the downward spiral again. Kelly is typified by placing bigger bets on losers and smaller bets on winners. There seems no logic to this method.

[monkeyinjapan]

So what's the answer Baco60?


Monkeyinjapan

.

[BJ]

So you don't like a staking plan where you bet more on winners than losers, and you don't like a staking plan where you bet more on losers than winners.?

I guess you just don't like staking plans....

[baco60]

Anyone that is getting winners does not need the staking plan, until one is in the front.
Once you made your money, only then you go for the staking plan to protect your winnings.
Cheers
baco

[baco60]

Anyone that is getting winners does not need the staking plan, until one is in the front.
Once you made your money, only then you go for the staking plan to protect your winnings.
Cheers
baco

You don't have to use a staking plan, if you have a good system it should return a profit at level staking.

You should not consider using a staking plan until you are playing with the Bookies Money.

[davez]

You should not consider using a staking plan until you are playing with the Bookies Money.

well for most that will be never...

there have been many plans mentioned here that are safe & just as importantly, can provide the wayward punter will a level of discipline he has been lacking, & which is essential in this game.

[Top Rank]

Baco,

I started reading with interest your post, but it left me with no answers.
Correct me if I am wrong but you are saying that there is no staking plan that is any good unless your method of selection is producing a level stakes profit.

Is that right?

[baco60]

Hi Top Rank,
What I am saying, what is a point of having staking plan if you system is not producing profits?
There is nothing to protect.

[xptdriver]

Hi Top Rank,
What I am saying, what is a point of having staking plan if you system is not producing profits?
There is nothing to protect.


Gday all

this is an age old argument... can a staking plan turn a loss into a profit... the answer is a resounding yes, provided you arent too far away from breaking even with your selections

AS an example my last 380 top rated selections have returned level stakes 98.37%.. ok that is a loss of nearly 2%... Using the 9/4 staking plan that I found in the archives of this very forum those same 380 selections have returned a profit of 28.14%.. which isnt too shabby.. that is a S/R of 25.26% or 96 wins.

If you want to use a staking plan.. fine.. equally if you don't wish to use on that is fine too.... each to their own

[kenchar]

XPT,
Good one, not that I use staking plans but just proves Bhagwan does come up with some good ideas, bit different to what some person on this forum says about him.

Cheers

[kearsey]

Hi Baco60 and all others.

Have been there done that with most staking plans and have come to the conclusion that the simpler the better.
I have been using quite succesfully the simple 2% of highest Bank plan.
Very safe if using any method that realises level stakes profit.
For example one of my methods I started with $200 bank @2% = $4 in December last year. I have since traken out my $200 and my current bank stands at $1200 plus a little. I have had 233 bets at 31% strike rate , av. div $4.77with longest run of outs = 11.
All bets can be placed at one time and recalculated at end of day if so desired.
Just my $1200 worth.
I must mention my bets are now up to $21 and today two winners at $11.71 and $1.85 helped boost things considerably.
Kearsey

[Shaun]

I totaly agree on the above plan...i would add one thing....when you get a profit spit the profit in 3 add 1 portion to betting bank 1 portion to savings bank and a portion to your pocket.

[Top Rank]

XPT Driver,

Just curious I have found the 9/4 Staking Plan and it becomes quite aggressive.

I was wondering if you follow it to the letter and all the way to the 11th loser if that happens?

The plan I found went as follows: 2-2-2-3-4-5-6-12-17-24-36. 2 units being your initial wager.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Top Rank,
The idea is to start at the beginning if one has 5 outs in a row .
One only continues in the betting if the winner pays less than 9/4

[xptdriver]

XPT Driver,

Just curious I have found the 9/4 Staking Plan and it becomes quite aggressive.

I was wondering if you follow it to the letter and all the way to the 11th loser if that happens?

The plan I found went as follows: 2-2-2-3-4-5-6-12-17-24-36. 2 units being your initial wager.


Gday top

yeah I do follow it to the death.. maybe a bit too lemming like.. but using 10$ units the last bet becomes 360$.. A couple of times the 360 bet has returned 7$+ winners so everything turns out ok, but other times.. not so good.. I like it, with a decent bank it doesn't get too heart stopping, with my top raters I am hoping not to wipe the bank out, it was more or less an experiment to see how the top raters were going and how to turn them into a profit.. as to what happens after the last bet of the series, I return to a 2unit bet and rule a line, maybe the way to go would be to reverse back down the staking list? Now that could become heart attack material :) I dunno.. quite a few times the 36 unit bet loses and the very next one wins, which is very frustrating, but thats the punt.. I should point out that the object of the planis to find a winner at 9/4 and return to the 2 unite bet.. anywhere in the series a 9/4 winner puts you in breakeven/profit territory for that series of bets.. As of today, the last 423 bets have returned a profit of over 6K from an initial bank of 2.3K .. I picked that level of bank to allow for 2 series without a winner.. Ofcourse a Unit can be any figure you so choose.. at flat stakes those selection returned a loss of just over 4%, so it does say something for the plan..

I would NOT reccommend that plan to
1: People with weak hearts
2: People with a small bank

I feel that if your selections prove to be close enough to break even that plan is a as good as any I know of, but if they are badly losing selections, that plan will send you broke..

my preferred and main betting method is as ever taking the overs from my top 4 or 5... I find this to be the best method for me..

[Top Rank]

XPT/Bhagwan,

Thank you for those replies. I am certainly interested as I have a method by the sounds of it quite close to yours in S/R and return and have been looking for something to turn it into profit. And you are telling me you have been to the death (36 unit bet and lost - returned to the 2 unit bet) and are still showing a profit.

That sounds promising, you just need the "steel balls" to go on with it.

Thank you for the info.

[moeee]

I have been using quite succesfully the simple 2% of highest Bank plan.
Very safe if using any method that realises level stakes profit.
For example one of my methods I started with $200 bank @2% = $4 in December last year. I have since traken out my $200 and my current bank stands at $1200 plus a little. I have had 233 bets at 31% strike rate , av. div $4.77with longest run of outs = 11.

Holy moly Kearsey!
You are getting 'em at nearly 4 to 1 and the are winning at the rate of about 2 to 1.
The worst staking plan in the world couldn't turn that into a loss!

[xptdriver]

XPT/Bhagwan,

Thank you for those replies. I am certainly interested as I have a method by the sounds of it quite close to yours in S/R and return and have been looking for something to turn it into profit. And you are telling me you have been to the death (36 unit bet and lost - returned to the 2 unit bet) and are still showing a profit.

That sounds promising, you just need the "steel balls" to go on with it.

Thank you for the info.

Gday top

nah not steel balls, just confidence in your selections will eventually find the winner you need.. and a bank that can withstand the losses.. Or alternatively you can apply the brake that Bhagwan mentions, it seems to make a lot of sense... As I wrote earlier this bank is an experiment of trying to turn my marginally losing top rating selections, into a profit and so far so good.. I might run it to 1000 bets or so and see how it ends up Today we jagged some nice winners but they were relatively small bets.. 2 winners at just shy of 20$ and a couple about 10$.. today was an even staking profit day with a couple of races left at toowoomba to run.. so wasn't a bad day at all, not a high strike rate day, but the divs were good.. that is what I mean by having confidence that the good winners will come.. if we don't have that confidence, we may as well give it away.. Good luck with whatever you choose to do..

[Bhagwan]

Here is another plan if one wants to ride with the wild ponys.
The idea is to jag a winner at approx. 2/1 (3.00) within 6 bets.Otherwise no bet that race.
1-1-2-4-8-16=32 units.
Have about 8 banks of 32 = 256 units.
If the 16 unit bet looses , start at the beginning again.

I have tried this on the RadioTAB 1st. selections paying $3.00+ & it has managed to show a profit over 300 races supprisingly enough.
Maybe this is an anomily, but check it out on your own selections.

The important bit is , the selection has to be $3.00+ otherwise no bet that race ,there are plenty of other races to have a go at.

You will be supprised how many of those shorter priced runners get rolled.