Spell of 12 months

[Truckie]

Many moons ago a subscriber suggested that some horses starting in a different state are a good bet if first up after a lengthy spell. Not quite the same story, but on 28 May, Mantario, Race 8 No3 at Rosehill won after a spell of 14 months, paying $6.80 Unitab. Is there any way to ascertain which horses start after a 12 month spell?

[punter57]

Morning Truckie!!
Check out the "Fast Form" in the Sportsman for Saturdays racing (thats the 8-page liftout with all the stats including days since last start) as it will say ,for example 400 days (more than a year!!!) or you can just run your eye down any form guide for the most recent racedate of each horse This is more tedious of course. However, if you're going to follow any method like you're proposing you'd need some idea of the MINIMUM odds you'd accept.
I don't know anything about Mantario but such a spell implies MAJOR problems which have (maybe) been overcome. For puny odds like $6.80 you'd have to very courageous to risk your money on any "athlete" who's been out 5 or 6 years (in HUMAN terms) wouldn't you??? Good luck anyway.

[La Mer]

Many moons ago a subscriber suggested that some horses starting in a different state are a good bet if first up after a lengthy spell. Not quite the same story, but on 28 May, Mantario, Race 8 No3 at Rosehill won after a spell of 14 months, paying $6.80 Unitab. Is there any way to ascertain which horses start after a 12 month spell?

Truckie - don't even think about it's a diaster. I was going to do a whole twelve monthe analysis, but stopped after five monts.

468 selections for a mere 26 winners (S/rate 5.6%) loss on turnover of 32.8%.

It's a definite no-goer.

[Truckie]

Greatly obliged, to Punter 57 and La Mer for the effort you put in and the good advice. When the announcer mentioned what a great feat to produce a winner after such a long spell, my memory started ticking in, but now I'll try to forget it. Still look for the grail. Truckie - don't even think about it's a diaster. I was going to do a whole twelve monthe analysis, but stopped after five monts.

468 selections for a mere 26 winners (S/rate 5.6%) loss on turnover of 32.8%.

It's a definite no-goer.

[davez]

truckie, may be worth looking at horses moving state after an average length spell - 3 months or so -

it may have been kenchar? that posted here some time ago after noticing a few winners getting up that met those criteria

[kenchar]

davez,
Yes it was me and the actual scenario I noticed was horses from the south popping up in nth QLD, usually in a much lower class race after a lengthy spell.

[Truckie]

Noticed Acee Deecee won at Sandown Wednesday- previous start 21 April 2004- paid $7.80. Maybe only if PP less than $10.

[punter57]

My suggestion is the opposite to your's truckie. If you are going to take the risk on horses coming back after VERY long spells (ie these horses have had problems) then you've got to be well rewarded for taking that risk. I would demand 20-1 or longer at least. While some might say that such odds indicate that the horse has little or no chance, I reckon long odds show that the punters think they know more about the horses condition than the trainer himself (ie the trainer believes the horse is worth taking back to the races despite the PROBLEM, why not US?). Well....who do you think is the better judge,truckie???
Another point with odds is this: when a longshot comes in, most punters are groaning and rubbing there eyes in disbelief. The bookies, however, are cheering themselves hoarse. This suggests to me that SOMETIMES the bookies might be messing us around,deliberately trying to FRIGHTEN us off with long odds on good things!!!! Cheers

[Top Rank]

Skittles tomorrow - SR2.

He actually will be well in the market. Was a pretty fair horse before he went out. You won't get the price you require for the gamble.