Eagle Farm Dribble

[maverick1993]

Race 1 . Not interested this race..not sure about this florilegum..think kanetoshi millions might be a nice eachway bet as with Admiral Spy..but first up over 1300m might be asking to much..if the values there might box them with the toppy and throw in Birthday bash who likes the track and will apreciate the dry.

Race 2. They say you should forgive a horse 1 bad run..so i'll forgive Enthusiasts last run and pretend it didnt happen...hes right in this race if he can dictate out in front..I really liked Face Values last run but not sure about the 1500m...bloodnBones run was good with a huge weight last time and drops 6kgs..i'll be looking at these three..

Race 3. Good race this one...Pentelikon was very impressive last start..hit the line hard and i doesnt seem to worry her if she doesnt get cover,,with beadman on top she looks real good..hope to get atleast 8's.
Yvonne is a interesting runner..wasnt riden very well lsat start but with seamer on board has a big show here..Tui song would be a shoe in if it was alittle longer...she'll be flying late and can trak yvonne into the race..
Lil elsa has been knocking on the door but might be looking for longer aswell..
throw in Our sweet moss in the tris and 1st 4's and we should be looking good.

Race 4. Spirit of tara has been flying of late..his last run was outstanding..and will be nice value...i was on Saxon for his win and jumped onto Willy next start when he won again..i like willy here and the track suits..just wasnt overly impressed with his sprint last start but with colless aboard it makes alot of difference....will probably load up on willy if i get the right odds but will be having something on the Spirit as well..

Race 5. Testifiable is screaming out for this track and distance..but will have to be right on his game to catch Virage..i dont think Diamonds won as well as he should have last start so im willing to risk him..foolish has the nice barrier and should be thereabouts..
i wonder if Seamer was sacked on Testifiable or he chose to ride Darci Brahma ??? will be keeping that horse safe in the multis.

Race 6. Another Cracker....Cinque was just to impressive to last start to ignore here..Vitesse dane was good aswell..
Irish Darling over this distance doesnt seem to have the sprint she'll need to catch them from the wide barrier..feel pretty confident with these 3 ..
nice 1st 4 race to with the jackpot :) throw in Aqua and GlenShian

Race 7. How will they catch All Bar One > this horse is flying..cant see anything running the last sectional needed to catch him..Lamond was good last start and Sir Breaky ran a huge race last start...If Maybe All BAr one after 2 starts has lost his brilliance ..i'd give these 2 a chance of causing an upset....would love to tip Legally bay because i know she can produce the sectionals to win here,,sh will get the tempo to suit though and the track will suit as well but her form has been inconsistent..Sky Cuddles last run was huge and if it rains shes in it with a big chance,,
might have a play with the multis but will be leaving this race alone..

race 8. Easy race this...Pacific Dancer is fit and winsthis and the Cup..take the doubles now :) Only Zingam has a show with good old County Tryone not totally out of it either....im not a fan of Platnum scissors and it might end up biting me on the ass..Devasting should like it better here and beadmans sticking with him ..just hated his run last start...keep him safe though (see race 2)

great day ...only one more sleep :)

other horse i like tomorrow,,Intermoo, So Assertive, wencelas square
.Majestic flush. Moggs ..polygram, Jillimarg, Parameter, miss latar, Fun at Last,
..
wow just to much happening tomorrow..

[Chuck]

1: Not intersested either
2: Doonan might get the run he's been searching for. On a High has also been struggling for form. Blood 'n' Bone maybe at odds
3: Many chances here! Magsaya has impressed in Sydney. Tui Song, OSM and Royal Mask are all capable. And Wasimah had a brave Brisbane debut
4: Willy Leica is my best bet for the day at EF. made up massive ground last start, will relish the 2100m. Barrier 16 is not thatbig of a problem. Spirit of Tara is my danger
5: i like Diamondsondinside on last few starts, kincharm is honest, but katsidis i think will put on a show
6: Vitesse Dane easily :o
7: Sky Cuddle over Beautiful gem. Both have shown capability, but need to reproduce
8: Zingam to do it for stable chuck!

[maverick1993]

I thought Magsaya was scratched ??? hope so because it changes a few things..

[Raw Instinct]

Race 1: Not even interested in the race to be honest Raadisi is one I would consider though nothing big though.

Race 2: Blood 'n' Bone is in this right upto his eyeballs drops so much in weight he just demands respect in this one, Doonan is the big danger hasn't had the best of luck and is weighted well in this one after that I don't mind the 2 kiwis Elendil and Anne Carina.

Race 3: Bllody hard race this one but I do think this is perfect for Tui Song it has run some huge races since it has come over here and I expect it to be just about fully wound up here, Lil Elsa and Royal Mask both intrigue me and Pentelikon was a big run last start after that Yvonne and Image of Reality could be chances aswell.

Race 4: Special Times was a good run last start didn't look to get the most room aswell as not being all that well away the extra ground will suit to a tee, Willy Leica looks hardest to beat although I did feel he had every possible chance last start didn't look to get impeded or anything. I think they are the main 2 winning chances have my doubts about Saxon at this distance.

Race 5: I could just about give half of this field a chance to win this race and if they go hard it will really suit my top pick aswell as a few others then it comes down to luck more than anything. Kincharm will be running on and he was chasing a very good horse who seemed to get a pretty easy time of it in front last time out shouldn't be the case in this field Katsidis, Diamondsondinside, Darci Brahma and Ready As will be hitting the line hard I think.

Race 6: The hardest part about this oaks is all the Kiwis it is so hard to line them up we know what Cinque Cento has to offer even if it was over a shorter trip it was so impressive, I just think that either Prize Lady or Felenic could just be good enough to take this one home at the moment I am going towards Felenic.

Race 7: I am going with the horse that I think is the best horse in the race and that is Lamond when at his best he wins this and wins it well a very classy horse who all but won a pretty good race over in NZ just getting knocked off by Sedecrem on the post there is no Sedecrem in this race.

Race 8: Pacific Dancer and Zingam are the 2 hardest horses to beat in this race I just hope that there is some speed in this race make it true staying test then it will be very interesting but the simple fact is that it hasn't happened at all in these staying races in Brisbane this winter. I'll have a bit e/w on Raw Instinct and depending on which I decide that I like more out of the other 2 tomorrow.

Good Luck guys it is a tough one.

[TESTAROSSA]

Race 1:

Like That's Better in the first, very consistent should get good run with cover from barrier 1, same could be said for A Little Naughty, Florilegium will probably lead and might prove hard to run down, chuck in Birthday Bash at odds.

Race 2:

Face Value has had 3 runs from a spell and improved on each start, started to motor home in the concluding stages behind Ballet Society, Drop back in distance and track will suit On A High, Prosecution might get a soft lead and drops a lot in weight, class a query but this race doesnt seem to be a genuine listed race.

Race 3:

Sharp Aunty should start at nice odds, doesn't know how to run a bad race, and after breaking through 2 starts back and a late finishing 4th behind All Bar One when nothing else made ground should run a huge race, Tui Song was blocked for a run at a crucial stage last start and could have almost beat Beautiful Gem who i have as a best bet later in the day, query on the distance, Our Sweet Moss has finally drawn at least a half decent barrier after drawing 17 and 14 last 2 starts loves Eagle Farm and unlucky last start, Silk and Money can run a huge race if its performance 2 starts back happens again.

Race 4:

Willy Leica will appreciate the 2100m at Eagle Farm, barrier no problem, Svenska has a huge drop in weights, has the class after only being beaten by 3 and 4 lengths behind Eremien in the Rosehill Guineas and AJC Derby, liked Gaze On last start especially last 200m, really motored to the line will get the distance and has Beadman aboard, overlook Cincinnati Gal's last start wasn't suited at Doomben, start before that at Eagle Farm flew home only beaten 1.5 lengths behind Saxon.

Race 5:

Testifiable is the pick in a very hard race, numerous chances but he will be suited by the track and distance, last start finished well last 100m and didn't seem suited by the Slow track either which made the run even better, Foolish can't be ignored, interesting its only failure was at its only start at the track, of course can't overlook Virage De Fortune, just think the pace might be on in this race plus the 1400m could be a query, still 4 or 5 realistic chances after those 3 however.

Race 6:

Think this race unlike the Roses will be a slower run race and will suit Ponte Piccolo, only beaten out of a place once and that was a 3 length 5th behind Dizelle in the AJC Oaks, should get the run of the race, Aqua D'Amore ran a good race against the males last start and was disadvantaged by the speed in the Roses, distance the only query, didn't mind Hveger's last 2 runs in Adelaide, might be value, and Tick By could be the knockout horse at odds, going to overlook Vitesse Dane and Cinque Cento, both were advantaged by a quick pace up front in the Roses which might flatter the runs a little bit to the eye, although Vitesse Dane might be a bit closer to the speed from barrier 3.

Race 7:

Beautiful Gem is my bet of the day at Eagle Farm, ultra consistent mare racing and superb form, can see her getting a good run in about 4th or 5th and having the last shot at All Bar One, of course he will lead from barrier 1 and will prove very hard to run down with 51kg, think Beautiful Gem is more suited on Eagle Farm then All Bar One, Dezigna might get home late for 3rd.

Race 8:

Another match race like race 7 between Pacific Dancer and Zingam, both on the cup trail, leaning Pacific Dancer's way for no particular reason, almost a flip of the coin job, race is always a great guide for the cup, think Raw Instinct can run a race here, should have finished closer in the Doomben Cup, not bad form for this race, Regal Punch always runs a great race, worried about the barriers with Natural Blitz and Platinum Scisscors, not sure where they will end up during the race.

Best Bet - Beautiful Gem.

Value - Sharp Aunty.

[Privateer]

Tick By

Platinum Scissors

Suggested 1w 3p ratio.

[darkydog2002]

Not with my money.
Cheers.
darky.

[Privateer]

Whether Platinum Scissors races well or not, dismissing the horse based ONLY on the barrier it has drawn shows a real lack of understanding of racing statistics and analysis.

Incidentally, it was good of you to point that out as I'm sure it took a great deal of judgement and analytical skill to point out that the horse had barrier 20 and us blessed with less intelligence would surely have missed it.

[darkydog2002]

Only too pleased to help.

[Tubby]

Chuck,
I laughed this morning when I saw your "easily" next to vitesse dane. Last laugh to you though. I hope you backed it. Great tip.
Tubby

[maverick1993]

Race 1
Nice start to the day..had alittle eachway on Kantoshi and Admiral and collected enough for a few shouts at the bar...knew it was a hard race but i liked Admiral spy because of his form around Son of Dane who i like,,,just was concerned firstup over 1300m ,,,oh well hindsights a wonderfull thing.
Thought Birthday bash was way unders..and so was alitttle naughty who wasnt proven at the distance.

Race 2
Great result....got 10's and the race was run to suit him down to a tee...star of covet added nice value to the tri..
this race basically set me up for the day...its great when that happens because you can spend more time at the bar

Race 3
Slowly run race again..this basically gave no chance to yvonne , Tui song ect.
Thought when pentelikon was racing in the carpark that beadman might of pressed on towards the front but he didnt...and our sweet moss was just to strong....lost fairly big on Pentellikon :(

Race 4 .
No value about willy here...had a dip e/w about Spirit of Tara who again bumped into every horse in the race..drivn me crazy this horse..
if you were quick and saw Mi Casa win down in Melbourne you would of had a bit of a go at Spurson....who won nicely.

Race 5 .
Well after wathcing the the last few races and realising that backmarkers were finding it tough ...Virage looked good value at 4.50 ..
had a go at Virage and testifiable to win a nice amount :) also had the tri and 1st 4 ... (wooohooo)
(note Katsidis was so exhausted that he fell after the race ?? weird)

Race 6
backed 3 horses here again targeting a specific amount to win.. ..Irish Darling, Cinque and Vitesse...
great win by Vitesse ..thought Irish was butchered by a horrible ride by Zac.
nice tri as well....

Race 7
Had an eachway on Legally bay ....dont ask me why i think the piss was taking afect...Sir Breaky was good value and i should of been on after giving it a good chance in my tips...oh well no damage done..

Race 8
Damage Done here ...had a big go at Pacific Dancer and County tyrone..
lost a stack ...kicking myself aswell as Natural Blitzs last run was huge and he didnt deserve to be 20,s ...havent seen the video yet but i will soon..

Won a nice amount on Intermoo and Parameter today
polygram was to short,,
lost on Jillimarg (next start be on) wencelas Square (unlucky no run)
Moggs (ran on nicely) So asertive (just hasnt got it anymore)

a good day in Adelaide with Hong Kong Cheri winning....wouldnt of even known about this horse except for looking at that Willie Comand race the other day ..thanks Mr ed :) ..got the tri and 1st 4 in order..
Clearview was huge value,,, making it a habit of grabing the last in adelaide .
Majestic flush..(not good enough) Miss Latar (next start over ground)
fun at last (ran into a speedy one..good run though)

Huge day for me...and yes i am sluring my words... but ilost a stack last week so i'm celebrating..

hope i didnt take all the luck and you guys won as well..
cheers :)

[topsy99]

there's got to be a difference.
i would not have backed platinum scissors from barrier 20 and i didnt but there you go the winner comes from barrier 19 with a patient and well judged ride.

but overall i wouldnt be going out on that limb too often.

[Privateer]

Just as a matter of interest, when I worked out the method that I currently use (and have been now for 3 years) I conducted a statistical analysis of race results over a 2 year period. I then weighted each factor as I identified it and placed them in an order of merit (My method uses 9 of these factors). All together there were 41 factors identified and barrier importance came in at number 17. The ONLY place where I even consider barriers is over the Flemington 1200.

Just on Platinum Scissors, had the jockey not gone at the 700 metre mark, it would have run second.

[bmcguirk]

Privateer
Given your comments, could you please explain how you determine the weighting of factors?
Ta
Brian

[Franskter]

This one is a hoot. I am standing there in the TAB on Sat just after Mi Casa won well at Rosehill and I am telling about a dozen guys that Spuruson absolutely walloped Mi Casa a couple of weeks before. They kept telling me that Willy Leica was a cert (from the wide gate....huh?). They were all piling on to Willy Leica....so I asked them to at least think about a small save on Spuruson. No takers. I had also told them Our Sweet Moss rated very highly in the previous race. Jeez... what do you have to do!

Well you should have seen the daggers after Spuruson got up. That's it... no more wasting my time in TAB's!

[topsy99]

perhaps the barriers had something to do with it.

[Privateer]

Aaahh, Topsy, a disbeliever. You also probably think that a horse has to be first past the post for you to actually win money.

I have punted for a living for just on 2 and a half years and as a result own my home, drive a nice car, have children going to private school and have just purchased an investment property. I come into the forum occasionally to give out a bit of advice in the hope that fellow punters can learn a few things and win more often. As far as I'm concerned it's us -v- them. This is, believe it or not, a great place to learn about punting and is unique at least in this country.

However, when people like yourself choose to make sarcastic comments you really cruel it for the others and make the likes of me wonder why I am wasting my time.

Apologies to you Brian but without (now) wanting to go into a great deal of detail, examine ALL of the statistical information that can be gleaned from looking at the results of races over a given period. Total all the factors individually and you will end up with a list. That list will show you which factors occur the most frequently. Apply "Pareto's Principle" to your list and see what you come up with.

Cheers

Privateer

__________________

"Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit"

[topsy99]

it wasnt me who pointed out that willy leica was from a wide gate and that spuruson was from an inside gate.

but i did back spuruson and not willy leica because of the gate.

you are obviously right on your statistical outcomes as you have the results to show for it and i congratulate you for it.

but having said that i find that a bit patience often gives some good results from inside barriers and i am sure we dont need to back all the winners so i let them go from the outside barriers. i get burnt now and again as the oshea stakes will show but i must admit i am never confident from outside barriers.
as john hawkes says "its barriers that win races not jockeys"

but i am not particularly sarcastic at any time.

[Franskter]

Hey Topsy,

The wide gate certainly helped the cause (IMO) when I decided to take Willy Leica on. However I have been following Spuruson for around 8 months and have picked up some nice money along the way.

I was in Brisbane when I saw Spuruson giving Mi Casa a thumping. The horse was pulling so hard (even after it hit the line) that, I thought it was going to do a victory lap.

[maverick1993]

Well done Frankster...as it happens i've been following Mi Casa for awhile and saw that race when Spurson won...
as it happens I liked Wencelas Square (Who was unlucky) but was impressed by the way Mi casa won..
i didnt even think about Spurson till after the race.....i already had my races planed for the day but if i was at home on the computer..i probably would of jumped on....but i was already half pissed by then..

And Finally about Barriers....i think alot depends on the race itself...as you see in my innitial summary i was alittle worried about Platnum scissors mainly because without any real leaders in the race i had him crossing over quite comfortably.....

an example is a race at Gold Coast Pm day.....Renouf (inside)who loves to jump and run and Grab the Phone (outside) were both racing..both love to lead and both with the help of some other horse went stupid up front and both tired and set it up for the backmarkers (san fransisco i think).
anyway both had there next start from barrier 1 in seperate races without any other leader type horses and won..
both at nice odds as well..

Barriers need to be taken into account with the tempo and pattern of racing for the horse (i'm still learning but speed maps are essential)..the outside Barrier for Pacific dancer didnt worry me as he gets back anyway..but the tempo ended up making it to hard for him..
willy Leicas barrier didnt worry me either as his pattern of racing..
Our sweet moss had a wide barrier but with the lack of speed crossed easily..
in hindisight Our Sweet moss was a good bet because there wasnt any real leaders in the race..i expected Royal Mask or Wasimah to do the leading ..
but was way off.

Privateer...Have been punting for just over a year (professionaly sort of) find i'm learning everyday..and getting better,,
with maybe beginners luck my figures for the year were quite outstanding....i'm learning more but feel if the system aint broke dont fix it..
any advice you give is more than welcome.
just wondering do you have a go at trifectas, trebles 1st 4's ect ?
most pros i know dont even think about it,,,except for maybe doubles if the value is there..but i find i have enormous success with them,,

[Privateer]

Obviously I misinterpreted what you said Laurie and incorrectly assumed that your comment was a shot. Please accept my sincere apologies for my jumping to the wrong conclusion. Sorry mate.

On barriers, when I did my results analysis I was quite surprised that they didn't figure quite as prominently as I thought they would. After 30 years of punting the mugs way it took me a lot of self discipline to learn to accept what the stats told me and not what my brain was saying.

I built my method around the most recurring statistics (2 year period) and without showing all my cards they include things like in the top 5 average prizemoney earners in the race, where it finished at its most recent start, its pre-post newspaper odds, a horse must be within a certain number of points of top rated (Sportsman) zipform runner and even (believe it or not) saddlecloth number! Of course there are more. (You're probably thinking WTF???)

The stats simply showed me that there IS a discernible pattern to racing form and I think that I was probably lucky to delve into the results deeply enough to find the right ones. Further, I only bet on Metropolitan race meetings and then only in specific races and NEVER, EVER on rain affected ground.

Maverick, to answer your question, I don't ever set out to bets on tris, doubles, quinellas etc...but very occasionally I may have 2 or more selections in a race and I'll take a small multi bet more or less as an interest. My main bets are always on a 1 win x 3 place ratio.

Cheers

Privateer

[topsy99]

thanks privateer. what you are confirming is that working your statistics and having the courage and faith to bet to it is getting good results.

in my system which is listed horses the top 5 prizemoney horses figure prominently.

[Tubby]

Privateer,
Thanks for your summary. I agree with you about the relative lack of importance of barriers but to this point I have been unsure of how to use it. I was hoping you might give me some tips.

I sat down and tabulated data from the last 18 months of races, breaking races into three arbitrary groups <= 1200, 1201-2000, 2001+. What struck me was that some of my long-held beliefs didn't seem to hold up:
1) Many days since last race (ie running fresh) could be overcome in the sprint group but a large majority of the distance winners had run in the last 14 days
2) Saddlecloth one (and to a lesser extent 2) wone a relatively large percentage of races in the middle distance group
3) Barriers did not seem to matter, even in the sprints
4) Just about as many horses won coming up in weights, as those going down in weight.

On top of these, something I did think...that the "better" horses (as judged by API) won more often.

Knowing all this (and please feel free to correct me) how do you put it together...would I be best to give a "tick" for a runner which has one of these things, or would I best to give "points" for such things...as seen in some (well ok, just one) racing magazines.
I couldn't work out a fair way to give points for a cumulative percentage event

e.g. Not using real figures
<7 days - 15% of winners
<14 days - 35% of winners
<21 days - 55%
etc

This is really long so i had better stop before I get dizzy.

[topsy99]

i will be keeping an eye on silk and money in the next week or so as a matter of interest.

recent form. barrier 4 won barrier 1 won barrier 1 2nd.
barrier 9 3rd barrier 15 12th barrier 13 11th.


this is an interesting discussion and am happy to be accept the judge's decision.

[Tubby]

I didn't mean to exclude anyone else. I think this discussion covers just what I have been pulling my hair out about for the last few weeks...ever since decided to "spring clean" my punting. Please anyone feel free to chip in if you can help me.

P.s. I got the feeling that eaglefarm was closer to fast on saturday and that the equine rain dancer (not my quote unfortunately) in the last would finally have his day in the sun.

[Privateer]

Tubby, If you are only using those 4 criteria, I wouldn't individually weight them but simply exclude those in the race that don't qualify. The thing is though is that you will still often be left with several runners per race in some cases.

Have a look at adding some extras to your stats that reduce the number of selections in a race. You might try:

Horses in the PRE POST MARKET (newspaper) paying not less than $3 or more than $11,

Those that have a PLACE percentage of 60% or better (forget win %'s)

Finished in the first 4 at its most recent start

Saddlecloth no lower than 7 (except feature type set weights)

And, as Topsy supported, in the top 5 in the race terms of average prizemoney won.

Cheers

Privateer

[Desi]

Thanks to all contributors for the interesting and informative discussion.

I do a lot of watching of races and read a lot of information (have plenty of time recently to do so) and generally blackbook horses for future betting and provide comment etc re weight, barrier draw, track and race conditions...

Privateer, having read yours and others' comments of their different approaches to punting and relative successes, I realise that there may be a better method of doing things (my present method has thus far been inconsistent) and I presently have the time and the resources to give it a reasonable go and look to improve my strike rate...what would you recommend to someone in how and where to start?

Can I ask if you are using a particular programme or software appl to store the plethora of details etc and do you process and provide final analysis yourself?

Is there a recommended optimum amount of stats or weightings (applied factors) or is it the more the merrier?

When you say that you look at 2 years of race stats for each race, what sort of stats do you mean and where do you get them from?

I spend a lot of time watching races and accessing (esp online) info re races I intend to bet on, is this a good utilisation of resources or are there better information resources available?

Thanks for your time and again appreciate you and the other posts ...and look forward to your feedback...
l

[Tubby]

Lets hear a cheer for privateer.

Sorry, couldn't help mysef.
Thanks a lot

[Privateer]

Desi

Most of the information I obtained from results was from spending several months in the library checking through newspapers armed with exercise books, pens, pencils a calculator and a lot of spare time! It was something I had wanted to do for a long time so I took long service leave specifically to do this. I concentrated only on Metropolitan results from Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and Brisbane - the places where I wanted to bet and, not coincidentally, the meetings covered in detail by the "Sportsman"

My working background included in depth analytical study of statistics and pattern identification so I was fairly well organised and was able to approach the daunting task with some confidence in what I was doing AND what I was looking for.

The list of stats isn't endless but included some that I reckon haven't been considered before.

I don't want to list them obviously as I put a hell of a lot of work into them and without wanting to sound unreasonable, they are all there available to the public and for everyone to access. What I will do is tell you about a few that in the overall scheme of things don't play a major part in identifying winning selections but a lot of punters consider "Gospel"

* Distance from the winner last start

* Unlucky last start

* Gear changes i.e Blinkers first time

* Won over the distance (except in races of 2200 or more)

* Up in class but down in weight (Down in class but UP in weight is much
better) Weight changes do NOT have significance that they had before
weights were compressed.

* Short priced favourites ie, "it's 5/4 so it MUST win"

* Winning strike rates (place strike rate is a much better guide to a horses
chances)

Now I'm not telling you to ignore all of the above, I'm simply saying that over a two year period in Melb, Syd, Adel & Bris that the above mentioned stats did NOT significantly contribute to the winning of money. There are many more important factors that DID contribute.

Cheers

Privateer

[Privateer]

Tubby, cash will be fine thanks mate.

[Mr ed]

Privateer,

You obviously know a lot about the caper and put a hell of a lot of time in your punting, but do you actually sit there watch tapes with the Sportsman in your hand and do form analysis?

Its all very well to have this systematic way of betting, however with the time you put in you could have watched e.g every horses last five starts. From this you can determine speed maps, time ratings, actual ability and so on. I believe this information to be much more valuable then if a horse has won more average prizemoney etc. Not saying i do but i have tried it and was quite successful, mostly with place betting, but the time got the better of me.

Above you mentioned that luck in running last start was not important, what i don't know is how you discern this from newspaper archives, you may get the (blocked for a run) comment but without videos how can you observe what impact this had on the result.

Glad your doing well mate, as you can see i'm not a fan of numerical systems for finding a winner, just think video analysis of races is that much superior because you see an actualisation of events and not take the word of the formguide.

Cheers ED

[maverick1993]

couldnt of said it better myself Mr Ed,,

Im a a video watcher religously,,,also have sectional times ect..for the full race,, i think most form guides list the last 600m but that can be misleading..

I'm a black book punter..i like the runner to have shown something the previous race...i'll forgive them 1 run sometimes (eg Enthusiast) but most of the time they'll have to show me something...
i then analyse every runner in the race ..do a speed map ..likely tempo...track conditions..jockey..ect..and if it all favours my runner its go for launch..
depending on the ratings it has (my own ratings that is) i then work out how much i'll outlay...if theres no value IMO no bet..

I do the ratings for the whole race this helps with my trifectas ect..

this is a great thread...i'm copying all this down :)

[Privateer]

G'day Ed

I'll try and answer the questions you pose.

"speed maps, time ratings, actual ability and so on. I believe this information to be much more valuable then if a horse has won more average prizemoney etc"

The things you mention didn't work for me and in my view take up far too much time. My work provided me with a simple template from which to work. I simply have to find which horses meet all the criteria and there is the selection. I reckon it takes me about 45 minutes per race day to work them out. Let me say this....about two thirds of all winners and placegetters are within the top 5 average prizemoney earners.

"mostly with place betting"

I bet on a 1 win x 3 place ratio.

"Above you mentioned that luck in running last start was not important, what i don't know is how you discern this from newspaper archives, you may get the (blocked for a run) comment but without videos how can you observe what impact this had on the result."

I didn't exactly say it isn't important, I think I said that there are other factors that influence the result of a race that are more worthy of consideration.

I did my analysis for this stat via stewards reports. I simply listed all those that raced without luck according to the stewards report then tracked their next race start.

The stewards compile their reports from not only their own observations but from watching race replays and reported incidents from jockeys and trainers. There is no need to watch a replay to look for unlucky runners, it is documented and freely available.

I probably need to explain again that I checked stats over a two year period and then listed the most recurring. I apply these stats to a race field and look for those runners that fit all of the statistical criteria. That then gives me a horse that based on statistical analysis and the balance of probabilities, should go close to winning the race.


"Glad your doing well mate, as you can see i'm not a fan of numerical systems for finding a winner, just think video analysis of races is that much superior because you see an actualisation of events and not take the word of the formguide."

I'm BLOODY glad I'm doing well too!

It's not really a numerical system just an application of the most relevant statistical data.

I don't take the word of the formguide, I take my own info.

Hope that helps a bit Ed.

Not too many questions guys, my brain hurts and I need to rest it for Saturday! LOL

Cheers

Privateer

[Tubby]

Mav,

I also watch the videos and note down points of interest. What do you use to make your ratings though? Some of the same factors we have been mentioning here?

Tubbs

[topsy99]

this thread has lived for awhile and perhaps its because we all learn something from it.
its obvious that the serious punters put a lot of work into their selections and deserve the results.

there are many different factors that deliver winners and in fact so many that i cannot always convince myself that it wasnt a co-incidence when my horse has won.

the compression of weight in modern racing is a factor that i hadnt considered and it is likely to be an accurate observation.
the discipline to stick to our own rules is a factor in our own results.
the issue of barriers does worry me even though more successful punters have proven they dont have the affect that some of us think.
a jockey drawn wide has few choices . to go early or to sit back.
both are risky.
good punting.

[maverick1993]

tubby its my own personal rating system taking into account all the factors..including points for there last 4 runs.,...you need to read dons scott method..
check him out he's great..
If you can take a look at some of sportz ratings idea's and Xpt ..there ratings systems are easy to use and work very well,,
if you search the archives you'll find them,

remember though ratings are always different...
eg. i rate Bowman and Seamer higher than Beadman....some people just go by the winning percentages for each state they are running in..but that can be misleading..
ratings only give me an idea for my multis...and i use only as a guide..

speedmaps and video study i've found is what has made me a more consistant winner..

Diamondsontheinside is an example.....his record on paper is outstanding but his last run on video i thought wasnt much chop,,,he had to work real hard to win that and to me looked over the top,,,he did cop interference on the weekend but he was never going to win....I even mentioned Willy not overly pleasing me with his last run....hmm and Face value..and Florigum.
maybe i should be laying horses ..
what do you rekon Mark ? betfair they way to go ?

[Tubby]

Thanks Mav

I have heard of Don scott but am unsure of what he has written or where I would get hold of his work. Are his books still in print?

Your analysis of those horses' last runs was quite accurate and I had decided to "lay"them all last weekend for similar reasons. As mentioned here however, I find video watching very time consuming (but nevertheless fun with a nice glass of wine) and wanted to formulate a reproducible, easy to use method of narrowing down the chances in a race.

I did a very similar thing to privateer (i.e. sat down with pen and paper as my excel and access skills are not great) and "did the form" for the last 18 months.

I unfortunately just lacked the nous to know how to use my stats.

I love stats though...they are a big part of my job...and it is interesting when they challenge a belief you have had ever since you first started reaching to put your TAB card in the machine.

[La Mer]

This is a most interesting thread and thanks go to Maverick and Privateer & others for making it so.

However, there appears to be some confusion (maybe it's just me) between ratings and selections.

As I understand it by reading Privateer's offerings, he/she has done the hard yards in his/her research and come up with a set of criteria which is important in his/her SELECTION process, on which an investment is made when that criteria is met.

Others have mentioned various factors in a broader sense, more ratings (Scott methodology etc) then determining selections.

Personally, my methodology is ratings based looking at (perceived) value accordingly and my advice is similar to that of Privateer's, there are some factors that are of importance and some less so and there is no real need to include those factors at the margin as the addition of such factors add very little to the bottom line.

Unlike Privateer, I've found that beaten margin is more important than finishing position but I agree that API (top 4) is a significant factor, particularly earning in the last year or two. Concentrate on the major four, five or six factors and the result should be a sound ratings based process.

[Raw Instinct]

I haven't even come up with a system that I use mind you it isn't like I am punting fora living so that could have something to do with it. Most of my bets are done by watching video tapes and looking at patterns with certain horses the jockey normally doesn't worry me as long as it isn't one of a select few that I simply will not back under any circumstances.

I'll usually try to blackbook a horse that I really liked the run of and see if a race comes up were I think it has a good chance of winning and hope that no to many other people have managed to notice the previous runs.

It is however interesting reading what you guys have to say and maybe I should heed some of the advice I think I am more pigheaded when it comes to people trying to tell me what horses to back if I like something I will back it regardless of what most people tell me.

[topsy99]

raw instinct reminds me of that wonderful movie.
where the punter wants to stake it all but doesnt know what to back so he takes a survey in the crowd at the track.
after the survey only one horse hasnt been tipped by the crowd. so he puts it all on and it wins.

i have found that no matter what you tip to someone else they wont listen (and i dont blame them).

else why are we still trying to work out something that has been going on for 200 years.
in racing i wonder what creates the great uncertainty. this is why consistency, courage and the belief in your method are so important.

[Raw Instinct]

Funnily enough mate my Father and I quite often end up yelling about certain things as far as form goes and funnily enough if I say something cannot win or will not win it so often does :(. Now I try not to say a horse can't win I just don't say anything or just shrug my shoulders and say what what would I know.

What I want to know is do you guys tend to follow horses at all even once they have won I have a couple of mates who use a particular system and have a stable of horses but once a horse wins that prep they remove it from the stable does this tend to make any of you shy away from a horse just because they have won?

[Raw Instinct]

To give you a bit of an idea of what I usually do is I like for a horse who either looks like it is dropping in class or weight or both sticking around about the same distance range they have been running over and usually early enough in there prep that they wouldn't have peeked already.

My top 2 bets on the weekend were Doonan who I felt was a great run given that they walked in front and it seemed to lose it's position turning for home. The other one was Tui Song who never got clear till about the 250-200 metre mark and by that time the bird had flown still managed to get home well but it is becoming somewhat of a money slug to me. The one that hurt me the most last weekend was Doonan though had my biggest bet on it and just didn't quite get there.

[Tubby]

It's an interesting question Raw Instinct. I think I like a horse to have won recently but not have won too many times in the recent past.

There is nothing worse than the perenial bridesmaid (ala My egyptian Raine) but the way I see it, no horse (or human for that matter) can keep on top forever. I think goes for a sportsperson or sports animals performance from preparation to preparation or over their whole career.

The trick is picking the up, the plateau, and the down.

[maverick1993]

depends how long the horse has taken in their prep to win and what ther likely target race was..,i try and work out what the trainer is trying to do..
some horses are working up to a certain race and win a few bonus lead up races it would be crazy to jump off ..especially if they are wining without reaching there peak fitness...
i have no trouble backing up on a winner if it still fills my criteria ...

i think alot of black bookers when watching the videos look for good runs behind the winner...but sometimes the winner is winning very well.and shouldnt be ignored..
Clearview on the weekend is a good example..

[Mr ed]

Spot on Mav,

I have no problem backing a horse after it has won for me, if it's next race is suitable.

Also agree on the comment about looking for a good run behind the winner, i am guilty of this myself and its even worse when there is a blatanly obvious unlucky runner. Everyone seems to be on them their next start and alot of the time i think they would have been paying more their next start if they actually had of won, e.g Taikun last year in that race Paptong won at Caulfield. In 95% of cases the run of the race has come from the winner but alot of people don't like following them because they feel they've missed the boat.

Privateer, thanks for your answers, just one more. Do you base your order of importance on SR or on Average Price? As a few factors you have left out may well be more important to SR but may be levelled out by the inflated odds you get from these factors occuring (or not). I ask because i don't see how barriers can be so uninfluential (if that's a word) in your selections, to me (in the right circumstances) they make a huge difference to a horses chance of winning, but this might be offset in your data by elevated prices due to these (bad) barriers.

To take this discussion a little further i pledge to anyone who has a database capable of discerning the % winners and there average prices of the half of the field which started from the inside barriers and the half that left from the outside barriers to grace us with this information. And why not a comparison between one of Privateer's crucial criterium, lets say if we do the same with the half of the field with the lowest API (is that right) as opposed to the half with the highest API. I am very interested as i'm sure many others are, even a small sample size would be great.

Just reitterating i'm not having a go at anyone just genuinely interested.

Cheers ED

[Privateer]

Let me start by clearing something up, "winners" as in first over the line, are not that important to me. I am happy to make a profit from a horse running second or third and if they do run the place then I ALWAYS win on the race. I suppose that is why I (and the stats supported me) don't place much emphasis on barrier positions as plenty of horses run 2 or 3 from wide gates.

I reckon we, as punters, are too often looking to find the ultimate winner of the race rather than simply looking for a horse who MAY win the race but wil most likely run a place. The name of the game (if you are serious) is making a profit. How many times at the end of a race day on which you have backed several winners, you find that when you check your wallet you have in fact lost or don't have as much money as you thought?

My method regularly throws up placegetters at big odds. I've had double figure placegetters many times and too many to count between $3 & $5. Mind you, I've also had very good priced winners but not as many as I've had placegetters. I suppose what I am saying is learn to be happy with regular, smaller profits rather than occasional good wins. For me, a winner is a bonus but placegetters are gold.

NOTE FOR MAVERICK: you asked me about multi type bets, one I omitted to mention that I occasionally have a lash at is an all up for a place. I upset a Sydney bookie at Xmas by taking $31 k from him with a relatively small outlay. Not a happy man at all. I suppose I shouldn't have said "thanks Santa" when I collected.

To answer other questions: Once a horse has run its race, wherever it finishes, it is out. I do not follow them for a couple of reasons. 1. My method relies on horses meeting all of my criteria which they may do one start but not the next. 2. I don't see the point in following up horses if they have made me money. I've done my job (selecting and supporting them) they have done their job (winning or placing). Why risk it again based on the fact that it won/ran well or was unlucky? No room for emotion in punting. Yes, I've had horses come out and win after I've supported them previously without success but not that often and to me it doesn't matter anyway.

A specific PLACE strike rate is one of my criteria but average price isn't. My selection has to be within a certain price range in the newspaper market to qualify. The average price rates #4 and the SR rates #7 in "order of importance".

Cheers

Privateer

[Tenacious Spirit]

Excuse ignoranc but what do you mean by 'average price'? And also what is this 'API' everyone alludes to, is this average prize income or something?


Thanks.

[Mr ed]

I thought it was Average Prizemoney Index, i.e a horses entire life earnings; or you can break it down to say last 12 months, divided by the number of starts in that time frame e.g a horse has won $50,000 from 10 races his API is $5000. Average Price would have to be all a horses starting odds added together then divided by number of starts, e.g 2.00 + 3.00 + 4.00 = 9/3 =average price $3.00 or 2/1 in the old.

I think you had me mistaken b4 though Privatee, when i asked about SR or Average Price i meant what do you focus on achieving as a whole a greater SR or a greater average price (i suspect Ave Price). I did not mean the previous history of a racehorse that may become a selection.

Privateer, couldn't agree more on the slow stream of consistent profits, i too was a big place bettor. Always felt like i was banging my head against a brick wall though when horses showing $4 would only be paying $1.50 the drum, and with no best tote on place betting (i wonder why) i found that much better value could be found betting to win. As a mathematician do you find the chances of your selections running a place are 3x greater or more as opposed to winning? My results said nearly exactly 4x greater SR hitting placegetters to winners but the odds i could receive outweighed this advantage, but this might not be the case with your selections as mine were generally well in the market.

One (alright three) more, you know you wanna. Does every race throw up a selection or multiple selections? Do all your 17 main criteria need to be filled for a selection to be made? Also does you "order of importance" make any difference to making selections within this top 17 factors or is the "order of importance" only functional for determining which factors you actually will look at?

And if your wondering no, i'm not a cop, nor do i work at the ATO.

Cheers ED

[Privateer]

Raw Instinct Forget the term "average price" My selection has to be within a certain price range in the newspaper market to qualify. Where will you be on Saturday? Members? Public stand?

My "average prizemoney" criteria is assessed by looking at the total prizemoney won and dividing it by the number of starts it has had.

"As a mathematician do you find the chances of your selections running a place are 3x greater or more as opposed to winning?" Mathematician eh? LOL You're closer to the truth in the last line of your post! Don't know about the mthematical percentages but I like the idea of having 3 chances to collect money instead of only one. Each way all day!

Nope, not every race throws up a selection. On average I end up with a total of between 6 and 12 selections across 4 meetings on a Saturday and less when the tracks are rain affected as I don't bet on wet tracks. Further, I don't rate every race i.e. jumps, some 2 y.o's, city maidens, rubbishy Saturday fields in Adelaide, those with less than 8 runners etc.

I only use 9 criteria. Number 17 is where "barrier importance" rated on my final evaluation list after doing the research.

The order of importance is not really relevant to how I make the final selection but simply provided me with a guide on which to establish a betting method (and also which punting traps not to fall into ever again)

Lastly Ed, if you backed a horse paying $4 Win & $1.50 for the place on a 1 x 3 ratio and it ran 2nd or 3rd, you still win money! Better than seeing your entire win bet stay in the TAB/Bookies bags. Even if you up to a 1 x 4 ratio and it pays $1.30 you still don't lose. Then again, I reckon I can count on two hands how many times I've done that.

Cheers

Privateer

[Desi]

Privateer and others,
Thank you for being open regarding your respective thoughts on how you approach a race and ideas on ratings systems etc...it has been most invaluable and I have taken a lot of what has been said and from this base I will obviously have to look at my personal criteria weightings and those additional (intuitve?) factors that might come into assessing races.

A small question for Privateer...might sound silly but when you say '60% or better' for placing ratio - do you add the win % to the place for the 60% or is it just placings only...

Great discussion and thoughts one and all and thanks again for your contributions Privateer.

[Privateer]

Only consider the place % which should be at 60 or better Desi and you're welcome mate. Just hope you can put it to good use and win a few dollars.

[Top Rank]

Good thread lads and an interesting chat. I am going to put my 0.5cents worth, because what I am going to say is not even worth 2cents.

Privateer, some excellent points but to just a minor thing. To say that place strike rate is "a much better" indicator than winning strike rate is a bit of a misnomer.
I only comment because this is one stat I have studied closely over the years also.
Place strike has an edge, approx. 1-2% over winning strike rate if you are taking the top placegetter over the top winner. It is up to you whether you believe 1-2% is significant or not and that is over a long period of time.
But if you looking at win v place over say the top 5-6 horses there is no difference at all.

Just a small thing, good luck to you all.

[Desi]

Might as well grab some more info off you guys while I can...Is it worthwhile betting on races for 2 year olds, fields of 7 or less and the cup meetings at non metro courses?

Choosing winners/ placegetters in races where there are large fields (esp 2 yr olds) seem like a lottery to me...Having no 3rd place dividend might cut down your opportunity for a place bet (have been caught out so many times before that I decided to keep to betting on 8 or more) and I have found some value bets in the non metro courses' cup days...

Or does it depend on just whether you criteria produces standout (potential) winners...thank you...
Cheers...

[Privateer]

For me at least betting each way, I found that overall, the chance of a horse finishing 1, 2 or 3 was greatly enhanced if it had a place strike rate of more than 60% and that overall, the place percentage was a better guide to a first three placing than its respective winning percentage. Hope that is a little clearer.

Sorry Desi, we were on at the same time, I'll just edit this one...

I don't bet on 2 year olds unless all of the runners have had at least 3 starts.

I don't entertain fields of 7 or less as I bet each way.

Cup meetings at non-metro courses? I wouldn't as I only like metro races BUT races like the Cranbourne Cup, Geelong Cup, Newcastle Cup etc often have very good fields usually of metro standard so probably worth a go.

For me, I'm a bit ruthless and simply stick to my method. That's why I don't go to the races often for fear of lashing out on something simply for an interest. (I'll have to give the missus my cash on Saturday!) What I have found is that the better the class of the field, the better my method seems to work plus I live for huge fields!


Cheers

[Tenacious Spirit]

Privateer,

Did you find signifigant drops or increases in distance as a statistically signifigant facotor?

Thanks,
Matt

[milbre]

g'day Privateer, you seem to be pretty popular => & i confess after reading your posts im going to approach the punt differently ! just a quik question , on your 60% place rule , how many starts before a horse will enter your system ? eg you tipped tick by i think on the w'end , seemed to be a fair ask for the horse , big step up in grade etc , cheers

milbre

[Privateer]

Matt

That was not something I even considered to be truthful. It probably does not occur on a regular enough basis to justify consideration as a valid selection criteria. It could have some merit but it would want to be supported by something a little stronger such as the horse/trainer has done this successfully before or it is a known front runner on a wet track perhaps? Very subjective but if you want to have a look at it I'd be interested in knowing how it goes.

Cheers

Privateer

[Privateer]

Milbre

As long as a horse has had 3 runs in its life it is eligible for my method.

Re Tick By, every horse in the race was up in grade all tackling their first group 1. Freedman has a very high opinion of the horse and it ran well although immaturely. Will be a good horse come Spring time.