Stradbroke

[Raw Instinct]

After looking at the order of entry it looks doubtful that St. Basil will even make the field which is absolutely ridiculos will have to wait for the final acceptances but it doesn't look good.

http://www.qtc.org/zone_files/Fields/stradbroke_order.pdf

At the moment he is sitting 29th overall and with Enthusiast and Sir Breakfast winning and gaining entry makes it even harder for him to get there now glad I didn't back him earlier anyway.

[Raw Instinct]

It looks like Bold Matador will not be running so that opens up one more spot it will come down to whether horses like Patpong, Hidden Dragon, Star Shiraz, Forum Floozie, Legally Bay, Osca Warrior, Amtrak and Infinite Grace run I would lean to most if not all of them not running.

I think the field will look roughly like this

1. Wager
2. Show Biz Kid
3. Enthusiast
4. Sir Breakfast
5. Our Egyptian Raine
6. Shamekha
7. Dance Hero
8. Winning Belle
9. Yell
10. Patezza
11. Ballet Society
12. Sky Cuddle
13. Sedecrem
14. Takeover Target
15. Patpong
16. Consular
17. Our Sweet Moss
18. St. Basil
19. With My
20. Tui Song
21. Mardi Gras
22. Royal Mask
23. Proudly Agro
24. Recapitalise

That is roughly what I think will possibly accept the one that could be in that I don't have in there is Legally Bay from what I have read though it will be a last minute decision for both it and Tui Song.

On another note just saw that Douglas Whyte will be here to ride Royal Ninja in the derby on saturday that is a big coup for brisbane to get such a world class jockey to the carnival especially with the top jockeys who are suspended be interesting to see if Whyte gets a ride in the Stradbroke.

[maverick1993]

fantastic field Raw...

if Takeover target draws a barrier he'll be short i...i dont think it matters to much with Patezza as he gets so far back,,
i wasnt totally convinced about Takeover targets efforts of late..i know he drops weight and all but was expecting more...i'm probably going to risk him in this..

i like horses in this that can run a strong mile...i'm really having a close look at Winning Belle ....she runs so well fresh..and stepped up a cog last prep..had enough by Doncaster time but now with the break,,,maybe..
Consular is another i like,,,huge run last start and was unlucky not to win this last year..

Sky cuddle is right in this if it rains and the forcast is for rain this week,,

will be studying the videos this week,,

[maverick1993]

Sky Cuddle is 51/1 ...might have a dip and pray for rain..

19856 * PATEZZA $5.00
19892 * TAKEOVER TARGET $5.00
19807 * BALLET SOCIETY $7.00
19886 * ST BASIL $8.00
19815 * DANCE HERO $10.00
19877 * SHOW BIZ KID $12.00
19812 * CONSULAR $14.00
19852 * OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE $14.00
19875 * SHAMEKHA $14.00
19902 * WINNING BELLE $16.00
19854 * OUR SWEET MOSS $21.00
19858 * PERFECT PROMISE $21.00
19821 * ENTHUSIAST $31.00
19900 * WAGER $31.00
19873 * SEDECREM $41.00
19878 * SIR BREAKFAST $41.00
19898 * TUI SONG $41.00
19879 * SKY CUDDLE $51.00
19904 * YELL $51.00
19881 * SOLAR ANTIQUITY $61.00
19888 * STAR SHIRAZ $61.00
19845 * MARDI GRAS $71.00
19863 * PROUDLY AGRO $71.00
19817 * DEUXIEME $81.00
19832 * HIDDEN DRAGON $81.00
19864 * RECAPITALIZE $81.00
19903 * WITH MY $81.00
19806 * AU CHOCOLAT $101.00
19824 * FORUM FLOOZIE $101.00
19835 * INFINITE GRACE $101.00
19840 * LEGALLY BAY $101.00
19871 * SASSBEE $101.00
19803 * AMTRAK $151.00

[Privateer]

Maverick, the pattern of racing Saturday favoured front runners. I know it's first up over 1400 but Dance Hero must be a chance? My off-the-cuff selection is Takeover Target but if they leave Dance Hero alone? Hmmm. Having said all that, I'll guarantee my method will come up with something else!

I'll be there on Saturday to cheer on whatever carries my cash.

[Raw Instinct]

I'll be there for both the Stradbroke and Brisbane Cup days aswell Privateer no idea what I am backing yet I have that many doubles for the 2 races going not sure where to go yet my main ones pretty well lead to Portland Singa winning the cup though.

[maverick1993]

The pattern of racing did fancy the frontrunners last weekend..but the Straddie is traditionally run at a frantic pressuring pace..,,Dance hero wont get the front easy...enthusiast will see to that and so will Wager, or our sweet moss and even Ballet Society will be prominent..
The back markers here are at an advantage especially ones that can run a strong 1400 to 1600m and get a good run in transit..
they need a good sprint at the end..,,horses like st basil , Patezza , Consular , Tiu Song , Winning Bell,
so that why im seriously looking at Winning Belle...sky cuddle if it rains :)

[Privateer]

May be a couple of showers during the week (one about 10 minutes away as I write) but I wouldn't think it will effect the track.

Raw Instinct - I'll be at the Straddie lawn party in the old St Leger stand area and will have to put all my bets on very early. All you can drink, top shelf and all, from midday to 5 pm. TAXI!

[Tenacious Spirit]

Mav,

Ballet Society is pretty versatile she could settle off the speed or just midfield and i reckon she is a good chance in this because i wouldn't say she is one paced. She could go with them if they start peeling from the back, what do you think?

*Barrier dependant that is.

[angel417]

IMO the forgotten horse in this field is OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE.I know it is something of a perrennial bridesmaid,but it is a class performer and has run a lot of placings against better nags than this lot.At $14 fixed odds I have had a good e/w bet(for me anyway).

[maverick1993]

Tenacious,,,i'll be risking Ballet Society...i think this race will have to much pressure for her..i wasnt totally convinced of her last win..River to the Sea should of probably won and if he starts in this hes a 100/1 shot..
i know shes classy you just have to look at her record ..but i have to put a line through some of them,,can't back them all :) i think the last 50m will sort her out..

I agree Angel...OER has a big show..i think shes a 1200m horse that can run a bit longer through sheer class..if she draws a barrier she'll be sitting just off the pace and could win this....i doubt her in the last 50m as well but i'll have her in the multis...the Mr Begg is very confident..

[Raw Instinct]

OER is hard to have for a place anyday but she just absolutely refuses to win a race just will not do it I have no idea what the reason is but she has moved up to win so many big races only to seemingly throw in the towel.

[Raw Instinct]

AAMI STRADBROKE 1400 M
Of $1020000 Of $1000000 and $20000 trophies. First $680000 and trophies of $15000 to owner $2500 to trainer $2500 to jockey, second $180000, third $80000, fourth $40000, fifth $20000. (GROUP 1). (Weights Raised 1kg.) No allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 20+4 EM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barr Wgt Pen
1 YELL John Hawkes S Galloway 2 56
2 DANCE HERO Gai Waterhouse C Munce 18 55
3 OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE (NZ) Grahame Begg H Bowman 17 55
4 PATEZZA Guy Walter D Nikolic 24 55
5 SEDECREM (NZ) Richard Yuill D Whyte 10 55
6 SHAMEKHA Gai Waterhouse D Beadman 4 54.5
7 HIDDEN DRAGON Oliver Koolman L Cassidy 9 54
8 TAKEOVER TARGET Joe Janiak J Ford 23 54
9 CONSULAR Bill Baker D Dunn 11 53.5
10 WINNING BELLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse D Beasley 14 53.5
11 ST. BASIL (NZ) Bevan Laming M J Cahill 20 53
12 SKY CUDDLE Peter G Moody A Pattillo 15 52.5
13 PERFECT PROMISE (SAF) Grahame Begg S Seamer 13 52
14 PROUDLY AGRO Barry Bowditch G Palmer 8 52
15 ENTHUSIAST John Wallace B El-Issa 1 51.5
16 BALLET SOCIETY (NZ) Pat Hyland Steven King 5 51
17 SHOW BIZ KID Ron Macrae G Boss 21 51
18 WAGER Gai Waterhouse B Shinn (a) 16 50.5
19 WITH MY Bruce McLachlan M Rice 6 50.5
20 OUR SWEET MOSS Gerald Ryan T Treichel 7 49.5
21E DEUXIEME Bryan Guy 19 51
22E RIVER TO THE SEA Diane Poidevin-Laine 3 50.5
23E SHABLEC Richard Jolly 22 50.5
24E DOONAN Helen Page 12 48.5

[Raw Instinct]

Geez the barriers have mixed things up a bit now with St.Basil, Patezza and Show Biz Kid all drawing woefully all which I did fancy Consular drew ok at 11 and another I thought might have gotten a bit better chance at the race after the draw was Sedecrem with the addition of Whyte and a decent barrier at 10 I think this horse might be pretty damn good e/w value.

[Raw Instinct]

19807 * BALLET SOCIETY $5.50
19856 * PATEZZA $7.00
19892 * TAKEOVER TARGET $8.00
19886 * ST BASIL $10.00
19875 * SHAMEKHA $11.00
19815 * DANCE HERO $13.00
19812 * CONSULAR $14.00
19902 * WINNING BELLE $16.00
19821 * ENTHUSIAST $18.00
19854 * OUR SWEET MOSS $18.00
19852 * OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE $21.00
19877 * SHOW BIZ KID $21.00
19858 * PERFECT PROMISE $31.00
19863 * PROUDLY AGRO $41.00
19873 * SEDECREM $41.00
19900 * WAGER $41.00
19904 * YELL $41.00
19879 * SKY CUDDLE $61.00
19903 * WITH MY $61.00
19817 * DEUXIEME (1E) $71.00
19832 * HIDDEN DRAGON $71.00
19907 * RIVER TO THE SEA (2E) $81.00
19820 * DOONAN (4E) $201.00
19874 * SHABLEC (3E) $201.00

[maverick1993]

The barrier draws are interesting..
Brings Shameka back into calculations..
but what it does is help rule out a few..Dance Hero will find it to tough..
and OER will be struggling aswell..

Winning belle won't be worried about the barrier,,

Enthusiast is interesting...he'll lead and if he can slow them down..he'll be hard to catch..i doubt he'll get his own way as wager will come across and hassle him,.,...Our Sweet Moss and Ballet Society look like they'll be just off these 2 with good runs..
with My with no weight could be roughie with a show...has no weight and will be closer than usual ..great run a few starts ago testing Glamour Puss,,

alot to think about here :)

[luv2bet]

Ill take winning belle at 16-1 all day long. I really like this mare, in my opinion it outways the others by far at this distance, class will prevail.
Thats where my money is anyway!

[Eroyd]

Hi Guys

What show Enthusiast? I got on him here in NZ at $60's. St Basil's got a start so must have a show Mav. Pretty damn hard to pick the winner.

Eroyd

[Privateer]

From Thoroughbred News Australia - "For over 30 years, the barrier draw seems to have made little effect on the result of the AAMI Stradbroke."

Careful guys.

[umrum]

From Thoroughbred News Australia - "For over 30 years, the barrier draw seems to have made little effect on the result of the AAMI Stradbroke."

Careful guys.


Patezza too good.
Shamekha she'll be there at some stage.

Deuxieme(if starts) and st basil to flash home

[Tenacious Spirit]

I'm finding it hard to have Shamkha she had a sweet run last time and didnt go on with it.

[Chuck]

There are a number here who will win it if they run at best....

Dance Hero and Winning Belle usually run well first up, but the only query is WB over the distance

I think distance is a problem for Patezza too, its really being killing for the mile recently

St Basil has charged home last few and could go close

OER WILL NOT WIN!

Yell could be a surprise packet...

Sky Cuddle will go very close it its wet

[Tenacious Spirit]

I am thinking of taking the gross overs on yell. His run behind red oog was good. St basil will probably do what he always does and come home hard late and impress everyone without actually picking up the prize money.

Dance hero will useto much fuel up early and is suspect over the 1400 first up.

Winning belle would win if it was a mile and still can win over 1400 but there is that little bit of doubt

Ballet society, i was warming to her early but would prefer to have a horse having the last crack at them

I was not impressed by shamekhas last run at all.

Stats suggest barriers don;t really matter all that much in this race so i still like show biz kid.

Jeeze i dont know.

[Raw Instinct]

Tenacious Spirit

Trust me I was very high on Show Biz Kid but I just don't think he is briliant enough to win from way back in the field I could be wrong thought with a decent barrier he might have been able to settle midfield now I don't see him any better than the last 4 or 5. Sedecrem, Consular, St.Basil and Patezza are all horses who finish any race extremely hard and with the price that Sedecrem is given the fact he is probably due some luck in a big race over here with a world class jockey on board who will be atleast 1 race wiser about the track before this race looks over the odds at around 40-1.


Consular and St.Basil are horses I don't think have alot that seperate them at there top which ever one gets the clearest run will go closest if either one gets a completely umipeded run then we could be looking at the winner in 2 there. Patezza looks more and more like a miler every time I see him run and to be honest before the Doncaster I didn't think he would run that far even though Rubiton is his sire. He can win this no doubt but I just have a feeling that this isn't his race only time will tell there if he gets a good clean shot at them then he just might be the one aswell.

Very hard race so many chances you just have to find something you like and stick with it otherwise you will change your mind 20 times.

[Tenacious Spirit]

Well the theory i have at the moment is with all things being equal there are several runners with an equal chance of winning. As such the logical thing to do is to ack the longest runner in that group. At the moment yell is in my chances and i very long odds, i might back it tommorow and just stash the ticket and be done with it. Then again i might not bet, I don;t really like guessing which is pretty much what I am doing.

[topsy99]

doesnt seem to be much enthusiasm out there.

what about enthusiast. will give it a go.

[Privateer]

Brisbane at the moment mainly fine but a little cloudy. Showers currently 50km north and south of the city but nothing near Eagle Farm. This week we've had a smidgin of overnight rain on a couple of occasions. Forecast for tomorrow fine and sunny. The track should be absolutely spot on. Can't wait to get there.

[xptdriver]

IMO the forgotten horse in this field is OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE.I know it is something of a perrennial bridesmaid,but it is a class performer and has run a lot of placings against better nags than this lot.At $14 fixed odds I have had a good e/w bet(for me anyway).


Gday angel

Hughie Bowman's words still ring in my ears about this one... It seems to be a a social horse and doesnt like being on it's own to me... seems to pass everything but the leader.. as an e/w, yeah is probably a nice bet, but I might leave it alone..

[xptdriver]

Gday All

lots of people have said that barriers mean bugger all in the straddie... I dunno, but all things being equal Takeover Target should be a short priced fav, but being drawn out in the car park has made a bit of a difference.. However, the horse drawn even wider appeals to me, I can see Patezza rattling home, but bugger me there is going to be some traffic to get through.. For mine I have Takeover Target on top (not confident at all) with the next five runners having only 8 points between them.. They are in order Patezza Shamekha Consular St Basil and Ballet Society.. Of those Shamekha and Ballet Society are drawn well with Consular drawn ok.. I think Barriers will play a part in this race.. I think Patezza has a real show, will probably be jagged back and settle and attempt to have the last crack at em.. My ratings say TOT will win, but I am ready to lay him the barrier is a nightmare, if he gets across without using too much fuel he may be a chance.. I think Patezza Shamekha and Ballet Society will be thereabouts at the end.. But I am not confident at all.. If ya can pick the winner from this mob with confidence good luck to ya :)

Tough tough race

[Mad Chris]

I think old Gunna St Basil will ran over the top of them with the pace on tomorrow but will switch to Consular if it rains with Our Sweet Moss as my blowout chance

[angel417]

IMO another forgotten horse(certainly not getting much of a mention here by anyone)is Ballet Society.Class act,perfect draw,top jockey.This horse does not like to lose.It was entitled to get beaten first up,but when River to the Sea loomed up to win,it fought back like only good horses can.It should get the perfect run in transit and if it can pinch a couple of lengths on them at the furlong it will win.Patezza is a horse I have a lot of time for,and contrary to popular opinion I think the draw suits him,so does the roomy track,but I tend to think that the 1400 is a tad to short now.Will run on into a place,IMO.Waterhouse may hold the key here.Would be interesting to hear riding instructions,IMO Dance Hero or Wager cant win unless they either lead or are up on the pace,which means they will both have to burn lots of gas from their horror draws.Was intrigued to read Chris Munce comment in the Courier Mail during the week where he said that if he wasnt committed to Dance Hero he would want to be on Winning Belle.Beadman was somewhat bemused by his comments,as he thinks Shameka is the best of her runners.IMO the best chances are Ballet Society,Winning Belle,Patezza and OER.Best roughie is Perfect Promise,has a great turn of foot,and if it gets the right run in transit will be right in this.

[Raw Instinct]

Huge win by St.Basil yesterday was wide nearly all the way I think was pretty hard to tell from where I was right across from the winning post but he just kept on finding when he had to if Patezza gets a good shot at him it might have beaten him but from what I saw he was the only real unlucky runner. Was awesome where we were though got to high five Michael Cahill and was even patting Make Mine Magic at the fence later on to was just an awesome day and hopefully tomorrow will be just as good.