Monday June 6

[xptdriver]

Gday All

attached are my ratings for today's racing... good luck if you choose to have a bet...

[xptdriver]

Gday All

Northam ratings attached .. good luck with em if ya have a bet

[moeee]

I will try rating a price for each winning chance and wager according to my rated price.But only if the available price satisfies this formula:

Needed price($)=(rated price)^2 x 0.15 plus the (rated price).

Today I went Wagga Race 4 and 5.Warrnambool Race 9.Northam Race 6.

Wagga Race 4
No.2 Red October $1.40 needs $1.70 for $60
No.3 Walk The Beat $5.70 needs $9.20 for $10 (E/W basis)

Wagga Race 5
No.7 Creanced $4.40 needs $7.40 for $20 (E/W basis)

Warrnambool Race 9
No.1 Popeye Doyle $2.25 needs $3 for $45

Northam Race 6

No.2 Brave Jester $2.40 needs $3.35 for $40
No.1 Scottish Storm $3.10 needs $4.60 for $30

[xptdriver]

I will try rating a price for each winning chance and wager according to my rated price.But only if the available price satisfies this formula:

Needed price($)=(rated price)^2 x 0.15 plus the (rated price).

Today I went Wagga Race 4 and 5.Warrnambool Race 9.Northam Race 6.

Wagga Race 4
No.2 Red October $1.40 needs $1.70 for $60
No.3 Walk The Beat $5.70 needs $9.20 for $10 (E/W basis)

Wagga Race 5
No.7 Creanced $4.40 needs $7.40 for $20 (E/W basis)

Warrnambool Race 9
No.1 Popeye Doyle $2.25 needs $3 for $45

Northam Race 6

No.2 Brave Jester $2.40 needs $3.35 for $40
No.1 Scottish Storm $3.10 needs $4.60 for $30

Gday mo

below are the price I reckon those horses would be fair value..

WAGGA 4
Red October $3.24
Walk The Beat $13.50

WAGGA 5
Creanced $2.40

WARRNAMBOOL 9
Popeye Doyle $3.64

NORTHAM 6
Scottish Storm $2.00
Brave Jester $3.57

[moeee]

Sorry XPT,didn't check your post till now.Could have been very useful.
Tell you what though.You go to a lot of effort to display your ratings.Much more time lost if you added the prices?

Anyway here's my post mortem.

Isn't it typical when you can't quite get the price you are after,the horse wins.But not long after,can't quite get the price and the horse runs unplaced.
Swings and roundabouts!
Certainly presumptious that a green punter like me might be able to understand the form at Northam.Narrowed it down to 2,and still missed the winner!

Anyway.Not a disastrous day,puntingwise.

First race didn't want to go against my special,which started $1.60,so stayed out.
2nd race price wasn't available.
Thankfully neither was the 3rd.
Went each way on the 4th for a total loss of $12 for outlay of $40.

[xptdriver]

Sorry XPT,didn't check your post till now.Could have been very useful.
Tell you what though.You go to a lot of effort to display your ratings.Much more time lost if you added the prices?



Gday mo...

yeah It takes a lot of extra time to do the prices because i do each race individually... If i knew how to automate it it wouldnt be a problem..

[moeee]

Like to help,but I can,t seem to see the connection between your ratings and your markets.
My ratings are just tallied up into a total,then divided by the runners individual rating and there is your dividend in dollars you need to get!

[Tubby]

XPT,

Firstly I love your ratings and your guts in putting them "out there".

You may have already seen this but it is an online ratings-to-price calculator.

http://ozracetools.com/modules.php?name=Ratings_To_Price
Hope it helps.

[moeee]

Tubby.
Did you try plotting XPT's ratings into that tool,and did they come up with the price XPT said they should be?