Harness Racing

[Oaksnaf]

These are my results as such-hopefully you can read them alright.
Races: 45
Winners: 16
Ave $$: $5.37

Since i am pretty new to harness i have only been backing the horses $2 to win and have had a handy little profit of $81.80 whilst testing this system over the past week and a bit.

Ill keep the system going for now and keep you updated as i go along. Then probably at the end of June ill get a relative idea of where i stand then we can start with the big bucks.

DATE Where Horse Place Returns
26/05/2005 Ouyen4 Loves To Rock 1st $1.40
26/05/2005 Cranbourne4 Torridon unplaced
26/05/2005 Cranbourne5 Before My Eyes 2nd
28/05/2005 Ballarat1 Joys Boy 1st $17.70
28/05/2005 Ballarat3 Broke As Usual 2nd
28/05/2005 Globe Derby1 Boz Boy unplaced
28/05/2005 Globe Derby2 Breaking News unplaced
28/05/2005 Globe Derby4 No King 1st $1.90
28/05/2005 Globe Derby5 Ultimate Legacy 2nd
28/05/2005 Globe Derby7 Endeared 1st $1.60
28/05/2005 Globe Derby9 Fibber Magee 1st $1.50
28/05/2005 Newcastle4 Ducks A Flyin unplaced
28/05/2005 Newcastle6 Abercrombie Dexter 1st$1.50
28/05/2005 Newcastle8 Catch A Stature 2nd
28/05/2005 Albion Park1 James Shannon unplaced
28/05/2005 Albion Park5 Sir Florian unplaced
28/05/2005 Albion Park6 Divine Intavention unplaced
28/05/2005 Albion Park7 Pegasus Park unplaced
28/05/2005 Albion Park10 Padres Pride 1st $2.80
2/06/2005 Maryborough1 Thepowerofhealing 1st $1.20
2/06/2005 Mildure5 Jezal Theory 1st $2.80
2/06/2005 Mildura8 Karamea Dreamin 2nd
3/06/2005 Mooney Valley1 Vernett unplaced
3/06/2005 Mooney Valley5 Touch Of Pearl unplaced
3/06/2005 Mooney Valley7 George Sloy unplaced
3/06/2005 Charlton5 Saint Armbro unplaced
3/06/2005 Charlton7 Tealsby Karita 1st $4.80
3/06/2005 Harold Park3 Nelson Street unplaced
3/06/2005 Harold Park8 Macrossan 1st $28.20
4/06/2005 Geelong5 Ostentacious 3rd
4/06/2005 Geelong6 Gringotts unplaced
4/06/2005 Newcastle3 Forest Vic 1st $3.80
4/06/2005 Newcastle9 Welcome Holme 2nd
4/06/2005 Globe Derby1 Tonto Toronto unplaced
4/06/2005 Golbe Derby3 Flash Fortune unplaced
4/06/2005 Globe Derby5 Officers Creek 1st $2.60
4/06/2005 Globe Derby7 Another Chariot 1st $9.80
4/06/2005 Globe Derby9 Kookla unplaced
4/06/2005 Albion park8 Gold Chance unplaced
4/06/2005 Albion Park11 Fakes Tycoon unplaced
5/06/2005 Kilmore7 Falcon Watch unplaced
6/06/2005 Shep1 Suelaurian 1st $2.40
6/06/2005 Shep3 Mesmerizing 3rd
6/06/2005 Shep4 Glasscutters Atom unplaced
7/06/2005 Nyah8 Sunbeam 1st $1.90

[Chrome Prince]

Well done Oaksnaf.

A word of advice - keep going with your $2 bets and have fun.

All your profit comes from two winners from 45 bets, so you stand a 4% chance of it continuing - but it could.

[Oaksnaf]

Well done Oaksnaf.

A word of advice - keep going with your $2 bets and have fun.

All your profit comes from two winners from 45 bets, so you stand a 4% chance of it continuing - but it could.
I continued on and it went like this:

8/08/2005 Hamilton5 Tamrod Claudette unplaced
8/08/2005 Hamilton7 Unreachable unplaced
8/08/2005 Cranbourne1 Wantalainga Beejay 2nd $1.30
8/08/2005 Cranbourne2 City Lane 2nd $1.10
8/08/2005 Cranbourne4 Hei Command 1st $1.60 $1.20
9/06/2005 Maryborough4 Ebilix unplaced
9/06/2005 Maryborough8 Little Partner unplaced
9/06/2005 Dubbo3 Titian Sophie Two unplaced
9/06/2005 Dubbo6 Karloo Mick 1st $1.20 $1.10
9/06/2005 Gold Coast5 Sailors Gossip 1st $4.80 $2.00
9/06/2005 Penrith3 Calornia unplaced
9/06/2005 Penrith6 Vixen Hanover 1st $1.50 $1.04
9/06/2005 Penrith8 Flying Nemo 1st $2.20 $1.50
10/06/2005 Cobram2 Vickishalo 1st $5.40 $2.20
10/06/2005 Cobram5 Netherby Prince unplaced
10/06/2005 Cobram6 Twenty Per Cent unplaced
10/06/2005 Mooney Valley3 Split Image 1st $1.60 $1.10
10/06/2005 Harold Park4 Spirit of Vancelot unplaced
10/06/2005 Harold Park8 Save The Lastdance unplaced
11/06/2005 Bendigo2 Looks Like Lani 3rd $2.80
11/06/2005 Bendigo3 Tennotrump 1st $1.20 $1.20
11/06/2005 Bendigo Show Girl Lombo 3rd $2.90
11/06/2005 Bendigo5 Dux unplaced
11/06/2005 Bendgo6 Jaccka Hoppy 2nd $1.50
11/06/2005 Bendigo9 Champagnesheffiel 3rd $1.30
11/06/2005 Newcastle1 Catch A Stature 1st $4.00 $2.00
11/06/2005 Newcastle6 Estella Road unplaced
11/06/2005 Newcastle8 Cujo Crusher 3rd $1.50
11/06/2005 Globe Derby1 Givitaburl Lombo 2nd $2.10
11/06/2005 Globe Derby4 Tomfoolery unplaced
11/06/2005 Globe Derby6 Avidale unplaced
11/06/2005 Albion park1 Nets Boy unplaced
11/06/2005 Albion Park4 Exuberant Popular unplaced
11/06/2005 Albion Park6 Curry an Rice unplaced
11/06/2005 Albion park8 Bertils Light unplaced

Then i stopped. At that point it was:
Races: 80
Winners: 25
Ave winners: $4.64

Then i started up again two days ago:

19/09/2005 Mildura2 Ultimate Mark 1st $1.20 $1.04
19/09/2005 Mildura4 Glitznglamma Lombo 3rd $1.30
18/09/2005 Bendigo3 Running Pinevale 2nd $1.30
18/09/2005 Bendigo4 Regal Dignity 3rd $1.20
18/09/2005 Bendigo5 Rasputin Lombo 1st $5.40 $1.70

Now its
Races: 85
Winners:27
Ave Winners: $4.30

Profit: $62

No bets today

[Mad Gambler]

What horses are you backing and what are the rules?


Mad Gambler

[Oaksnaf]

What horses are you backing and what are the rules?


Mad Gambler
The rules are very simple.
1) Won last race
2) placed 2nd or 3rd in second last race
3) if more than one is left, then choose the shortest odds.

Im backing harness racing, any race which see's a selection.

[Oaksnaf]

Today:

Echuca

R3 #1
R5 #2
R8 #6

Redcliffe:

R6 #7
R8 #4

[a4brianp]

Wish you luck with your system.Have been doing mine for years and still in front since i have been putting them on here we are also in profit.
Anything that helps the harness pools and therefore the sport is great by me.
I post my selections on main board and also more detailed on www.insiderail.com/

cheers
Barney
a4brianp

[Oaksnaf]

Well 2/3 winners paying $1.90 and $4.00 so whatever the last two races are, i made a profit.

[a4brianp]

I had 1/3 last night paid $9.90 up in Qld more in other states so also had winning night.

[Merriguy]

Doing well, Oak --- but Chrome Prince's caution is well said. those couple of big winners have distorted the results a bit. Still might be time for another big one. :)


Two questions:
Last two starts winners? Notice there is one today.
First up after a spell, but last start was a winner?

Good luck.

[Tenacious Spirit]

This is going to sound really lame, but here me out. I am not suggesting this is a system that will return consistent profits over time or anythingand it really isnt even a system. But if used on the odd occasion i.e. once every week or two - you would be surprised. Its something me old man does when we go down for a frothy at the pub, and had been doing it for a year and he is showing a pretty hefty profit. Harness and dogs (he does it with horses but minimal success) he just backs all the long odds runners in the race, and leaves the top 3 or 4 (harness), 2 or 3 (dogs) in the betting alone. As a once in a while, fun thing to do he rarely loses ie. would only lose 1 in 5 times. The other thing is once you win thats it. I think it works because in dogs and harness unlike horses there are a lot more false favourites as well as faves which are way under the odds. Sometimes in harness for example, there will be like a 1.10 pop and the rest of the field is 12's or over and it continually surprises me how many times these shorties get beaten. I have never been game to try it, because logically it shouldnt work, but i can;t argue since 9 times out of 10 he walks out with a lot more dough than me.

[Chrome Prince]

Anything that helps the harness pools and therefore the sport is great by me.


Couldn't have said it better myself.

[Oaksnaf]

Doing well, Oak --- but Chrome Prince's caution is well said. those couple of big winners have distorted the results a bit. Still might be time for another big one. :)


Two questions:
Last two starts winners? Notice there is one today.
First up after a spell, but last start was a winner?

Good luck.
Yes it doesnt matter if there is a spell in it. Just as long as its 'last start' was a win, could go 3s1s but it would still be a selection.

Yes this system is just for $2 wins to see what can eventuate but what has been pointed out is quite right.

But it did show me that a few winners were able to back up after a run of good results. That factor was important, but its not at all welcoming when it comes to the returns.

Ill have a different sort of selections for you tonight for tommorow's races as ive been testing a system and its doing quite well despite a lapse in results last night.

Anyways thanks for your advice : - )

[Oaksnaf]

Well City Lane finished 2nd and paid $1.60 today.

At Ballarat we have R6) #12 and thats it.

(now on something totally un-related to this system).

Ima gonna try my hand at:

Ballarat Race 3) #8* - 6- 7
Race 4) #6*
Race 5) #11* - 2 - 7- 4
Race 6) #(3,8)
Race 7) #11* - 6
Race 8) #5*

*=selection. With the other numbers as possibilities for multiples etc.

[Merriguy]

Why aren't Ballarat R3 #8; R7 #10; and R8 #8 selections?


I counted Moonee Valley R4 #3 as a selection today (lowest price of 3 qualifiers)also. It paid $8.50/$2.10. :) The other four at that venue missed.:mad:

[Oaksnaf]

Why aren't Ballarat R3 #8; R7 #10; and R8 #8 selections?


I counted Moonee Valley R4 #3 as a selection today (lowest price of 3 qualifiers)also. It paid $8.50/$2.10. :) The other four at that venue missed.:mad:
Too shay, i did ineed miss Ballarat R3 #8 and R7 #10

Ahh now i see where you are coming from with Mooney Valley results wise and Ballarat R8 #8 results. I have actually been exluding those who have won twice in a row in my selections. Might have to see who they go.

But then $8.50 isn't too bad if the other four lost. Thats still a profit.

And already tonight:

Race 2) #2 paid $1.50, $1.10
Race 3) #8 paid $1,40, $1.10

So thats going down well.

Ill try including those who have won twice in a row and see what eventuates.


(Now for the other system)
Race 3) #8 paid $1.40, $1.10
Race 4) #6 unplaced
Race 5) #11 unplaced, 4th selection won at $15.50

and still some to go.

[Oaksnaf]

A nice trifecta for race 6 tonight at Ballarat. BOX 3,8,12

[Oaksnaf]

A nice trifecta for race 6 tonight at Ballarat. BOX 3,8,12
Almost, ill guess ill just have to wave my flag and be content with the $4.70 exacta. Just couldn't split those two in the ratings.

[Oaksnaf]

Now i am going to start including (1.1) results into the system now.

This is how it looks:

DATE Where Horse Place Returns
26/05/2005 Ouyen4 Loves To Rock 1st $1.40 $1.04
26/05/2005 Cranbourne4 Torridon unplaced
26/05/2005 Cranbourne5 Before My Eyes 2nd $1.20
28/05/2005 Ballarat1 Joys Boy 1st $17.70 $4.10
28/05/2005 Ballarat3 Broke As Usual 2nd $1.60
28/05/2005 Globe Derby1 Boz Boy unplaced
28/05/2005 Globe Derby2 Breaking News unplaced
28/05/2005 Globe Derby4 No King 1st $1.90 $1.30
28/05/2005 Globe Derby5 Ultimate Legacy 2nd $2.00
28/05/2005 Globe Derby7 Endeared 1st $1.60 $1.04
28/05/2005 Globe Derby9 Fibber Magee 1st $1.50 $1.04
28/05/2005 Newcastle4 Ducks A Flyin unplaced
28/05/2005 Newcastle6 Abercrombie Dexter 1st $1.50 $2.10
28/05/2005 Newcastle8 Catch A Stature 2nd $2.50
28/05/2005 Albion Park1 James Shannon unplaced
28/05/2005 Albion Park5 Sir Florian unplaced
28/05/2005 Albion Park6 Divine Intavention unplaced
28/05/2005 Albion Park7 Pegasus Park unplaced
28/05/2005 Albion Park10 Padres Pride 1st $2.80 $1.30
2/06/2005 Maryborough1 Thepowerofhealing 1st $1.20 $1.10
2/06/2005 Mildure5 Jezal Theory 1st $2.80 $1.80
2/06/2005 Mildura8 Karamea Dreamin 2nd $1.10
3/06/2005 Mooney Valley1 Vernett unplaced
3/06/2005 Mooney Valley5 Touch Of Pearl unplaced
3/06/2005 Mooney Valley7 George Sloy unplaced
3/06/2005 Charlton5 Saint Armbro unplaced
3/06/2005 Charlton7 Tealsby Karita 1st $4.80 $1.70
3/06/2005 Harold Park3 Nelson Street unplaced
3/06/2005 Harold Park8 Macrossan 1st $28.20 $2.80
4/06/2005 Geelong5 Ostentacious 3rd $9.50
4/06/2005 Geelong6 Gringotts unplaced
4/06/2005 Newcastle3 Forest Vic 1st $3.80 $1.20
4/06/2005 Newcastle9 Welcome Holme 2nd $1.04
4/06/2005 Globe Derby1 Tonto Toronto unplaced
4/06/2005 Golbe Derby3 Flash Fortune unplaced
4/06/2005 Globe Derby5 Officers Creek 1st $2.60 $1.50
4/06/2005 Globe Derby7 Another Chariot 1st $9.80 $3.10
4/06/2005 Globe Derby9 Kookla unplaced
4/06/2005 Albion park8 Gold Chance unplaced
4/06/2005 Albion Park11 Fakes Tycoon unplaced
5/06/2005 Kilmore7 Falcon Watch unplaced
6/06/2005 Shep1 Suelaurian 1st $2.40 $1.20
6/06/2005 Shep3 Mesmerizing 3rd $1.20
6/06/2005 Shep4 Glasscutters Atom unplaced
7/06/2005 Nyah8 Sunbeam 1st $1.90 $1.04
8/08/2005 Hamilton5 Tamrod Claudette unplaced
8/08/2005 Hamilton7 Unreachable unplaced
8/08/2005 Cranbourne1 Wantalainga Beejay 2nd $1.30
8/08/2005 Cranbourne2 City Lane 2nd $1.10
8/08/2005 Cranbourne4 Hei Command 1st $1.60 $1.20
9/06/2005 Maryborough4 Ebilix unplaced
9/06/2005 Maryborough8 Little Partner unplaced
9/06/2005 Dubbo3 Titian Sophie Two unplaced
9/06/2005 Dubbo6 Karloo Mick 1st $1.20 $1.10
9/06/2005 Gold Coast5 Sailors Gossip 1st $4.80 $2.00
9/06/2005 Penrith3 Calornia unplaced
9/06/2005 Penrith6 Vixen Hanover 1st $1.50 $1.04
9/06/2005 Penrith8 Flying Nemo 1st $2.20 $1.50
10/06/2005 Cobram2 Vickishalo 1st $5.40 $2.20
10/06/2005 Cobram5 Netherby Prince unplaced
10/06/2005 Cobram6 Twenty Per Cent unplaced
10/06/2005 Mooney Valley3 Split Image 1st $1.60 $1.10
10/06/2005 Harold Park4 Spirit of Vancelot unplaced
10/06/2005 Harold Park8 Save The Lastdance unplaced
11/06/2005 Bendigo2 Looks Like Lani 3rd $2.80
11/06/2005 Bendigo3 Tennotrump 1st $1.20 $1.20
11/06/2005 Bendigo Show Girl Lombo 3rd $2.90
11/06/2005 Bendigo5 Dux unplaced
11/06/2005 Bendgo6 Jaccka Hoppy 2nd $1.50
11/06/2005 Bendigo9 Champagnesheffiel 3rd $1.30
11/06/2005 Newcastle1 Catch A Stature 1st $4.00 $2.00
11/06/2005 Newcastle6 Estella Road unplaced
11/06/2005 Newcastle8 Cujo Crusher 3rd $1.50
11/06/2005 Globe Derby1 Givitaburl Lombo 2nd $2.10
11/06/2005 Globe Derby4 Tomfoolery unplaced
11/06/2005 Globe Derby6 Avidale unplaced
11/06/2005 Albion park1 Nets Boy unplaced
11/06/2005 Albion Park4 Exuberant Popular unplaced
11/06/2005 Albion Park6 Curry an Rice unplaced
11/06/2005 Albion park8 Bertils Light unplaced
19/09/2005 Mildura2 Ultimate Mark 1st $1.20 $1.04
19/09/2005 Mildura4 Glitznglamma Lombo 3rd $1.30
18/09/2005 Bendigo3 Running Pinevale 2nd $1.30
18/09/2005 Bendigo4 Regal Dignity 3rd $1.20
18/09/2005 Bendigo5 Rasputin Lombo 1st $5.40 $1.70
20/09/2005 Terang3 Pocket Fantasy 2nd $1.04
22/09/2005 Mooney Valley2 City Lane 2nd $1.70
22/09/2005 Mooney Valley3 Kurt Rustler 2nd $1.04
22/09/2005 Mooney valley4 Miss Kellie 1st $10.50 $3.50
22/09/2005 Mooney Valley8 Lislight 2nd $1.20
22/09/2005 Ballarat2 Jilliby Jordan 1st $1.50 $1.10
22/09/2005 Ballarat3 Heza Hard Drive 1st $1.40 $1.10
22/09/2005 Ballarat6 Jiliby Lightning unplaced
22/09/2005 Ballarat7 Manwarra Achiever unplaced
22/09/2005 Ballarat8 Princess Yum Yum unplaced


RACES: 95
WINS: 30
AVE WINNER: $4.30

Based on $1 bets:
Profit: $ 34.40 (so if you were betting $25 win a profit of $860 so far)

Its a gain of 27% thus far.

However almost 50% of the winnings come from 3 races alone, which Chromo Prince point out, is not good for the long term.

Tweaking is probably necessary but that might come in due time.

[Oaksnaf]

Today's races:

Charlton:
R3) #6
R4) #9
R6) #10
R7) #8

Harold Park
R1) #5
R2) #3
R3) #5
R4) #4
R8) #7

Kilmore:
R5) #7/12
R6) #6
R7) #6

A host of favourites today but some of them might go out to a little better odds.

[dingoboy]

I myself do something similar over the quiet ale,
Usually four or five of us head up the local wednesday night for a social couple, literally,
We all throw in a few bucks each and the boys leave it to me to put the trots or dogs on, its commonly refered to as earning beer money, thats the whole idea, a few free beers ! and a yack. We take the 2,3,4 or fifth fav, take them for a win then stand them out in a small tri (sometimes),
More often than not, i would say 80% we all walk home with a couple of TAB Bundy and cokes each for roadies, i wouldnt do it seriously though!

Good luck Oaksnaf
Cheers dingo

[Oaksnaf]

Hey Dingo, taking out the favourite made me wonder what my results would be if i excluded the Pre-Race favourite.

I was only able to get 12 runs from this out of the last 26 races, whcih indicates 50% of my selections are pre-race favourites and don't seem to offer a lot of odds. So when i loose 2-3 its hard to make it up.

If the selection is Pre-Race favourite exclude the race.
If the selection isn't Pre-Race favourite then its included
If there are more than one Non-Pre Race Favourites eg; $5, $8. Then you take the lowest odds one.


Here are the results (exlcuding all races that had my selection as a pre-race favourite)


16/09/2005 Ballarat5 Vindication unplaced

16/09/2005 Harold Park3 Stormy Crusader 1st $3.10 $1.80

16/09/2005 MV2 Dicks the Man unplaced

16/09/2005 MV5 Ok Windermere unplaced
16/09/2005 MV6 Blakey unplaced
16/09/2005 MV7 Hi Ho Fitz 1st $3.00 $1.50

18/09/2005 Bendigo3 Family Destiney 2nd $1.30

18/09/2005 Bendigo5 Rasputin Lombo 1st $5.40 $1.70

22/09/2005 Mooney valley4 Miss Kellie 1st $10.50 $3.50

22/09/2005 Ballarat6 Jiliby Lightning unplaced
22/09/2005 Ballarat7 Manwarra Achiever unplaced
22/09/2005 Ballarat8 Princess Yum Yum unplaced


Also (i found an old form guide sitting around from 16 sept and included those results in this)

So here go:

Races: 12
Winners: 4
Ave Winnner: $5.50

Based on $5 win bets:

Profit: exactly $50 after 12 races.

So for the races which remain today we have:

Harold Park Race 8) #7
and thats it. The rest are pre-race favourites.

[Oaksnaf]

Well 3 wins on the trot at harold Park so far tonight. And 4/6 so far today after Charlton R7) #8 was a late scratching!

So its looking good tonight, despite the skinny odds. But a wins a win.

[Oaksnaf]

Tonights Results:

23/09/2005 Charlton4 Ultimate Mark 1st $1.60 $1.20
23/09/2005 Charlton6 Disco Cisco unplaced
23/09/2005 Harold park1 Smooth Crusa 1st $1.20 $1.30
23/09/2005 Harold Park2 Clint Westwood 1st $1.40 $1.10
23/09/2005 Harold Park3 Miss Alberta 1st $3.20 $1.70
23/09/2005 Harold park4 Dominator Stride unplaced
23/09/2005 Harold Park8 Concorde 3rd NTD
23/09/2005 Kilmore6 Sopkyola 1st $1.20 $1.04
23/09/2005 Kilmore7 Toe Taper 1st $1.40 $1.04


Two races with the non pre-race favourite welded a 3rd NTD, and an unplaced.

So 6/9 races tonight, but skinny odds dont help a lot.

Based on $5 bets:

Races Winners Places
116 39 52


149.2 107.08
Ave Winner 3.825641026 2.059230769

For $5 investment
Profit WIN: $166.00
Profit PLACE: -$44.60


So its going alright.

[Oaksnaf]

Tonight there are just a 'few' races on. Just a few.

Cranbourne:
R3) #7 (Not pre-race favourite)
R5) #12
R6) #6
R7) #2 (Not pre-race favourite)

Albion Park
R1) #9 (Not pre-race favourite)
R2) #5
R5) #5
R6) #7
R9) #8 (Not pre-race favourite)

Newcastle:
R7) #4 (Not pre-race favourite)

Golbe Derby
R4) #2
R5) #5
R6) #4
R7) #6 (Not pre-race favourite)

So there you have it: 14 races in total, and 6 that are not pre-race favourites.

Should be an interesting night for sure, hopefully picking up the same % of winners as last night, but with better odds.

[Oaksnaf]

Tonight there are just a 'few' races on. Just a few.

Cranbourne:
R3) #7 (Not pre-race favourite)
R5) #12
R6) #6
R7) #2 (Not pre-race favourite)

Albion Park
R1) #9 (Not pre-race favourite)
R2) #5
R5) #5
R6) #7
R9) #8 (Not pre-race favourite)

Newcastle:
R7) #4 (Not pre-race favourite)

Golbe Derby
R4) #2
R5) #5
R6) #4
R7) #6 (Not pre-race favourite)

So there you have it: 14 races in total, and 6 that are not pre-race favourites.

Should be an interesting night for sure, hopefully picking up the same % of winners as last night, but with better odds.

Cranbourne
Race 3) #7 unplaced
Race 5) #12 1st $1.50, $1.10
Race 6) #6 2nd $1.40
Race 7) #2 2nd $3.00

Albion Park
Race 1) #9 unplaced
Race 2) #5 2nd $1.80
Race 5) #5 1st $7.50, $1.90
Race 6) #7 3rd $1.40
Race 9) #8 unplaced

Newcastle
Race 7) #4 2nd $1.90

Globe Derby
Race 4) #2 1st $7.40, $2.20
Race 5) #5 1st $2.50, $1.70
Race 6) #4 2nd $1.04
Race 7) #6 unplaced

Races: 14
Winners: 4
Ave Winners: $4.725

Its going well.

[Oaksnaf]

Today at Geelong:

Race 5) #3
Race 6) #3
Race 7) #2
Race 8) #8

[Oaksnaf]

Yesterday's results look like this:

24/09/2005 Cranbourne3 Another Impression unplaced
24/09/2005 Cranbourne5 Immortal Quest 1st $1.50 $1.10
24/09/2005 Cranbourne6 Cullombo 2nd $1.40
24/09/2005 Cranbourne7 Smashin Sampras 2nd $3.00
24/09/2005 Albion Park1 Intheshadows unplaced
24/09/2005 Albion Park2 Master Mittens 2nd $1.80
24/09/2005 Albion Park5 Dream Royale 1st $7.50 $1.90
24/09/2005 Albion Park6 Battlers Prince 3rd $1.40
24/09/2005 Albion Park9 Itzallinthetimin unplaced
24/09/2005 Newcastle7 George Jetson 2nd $1.90
24/09/2005 Globe Derby4 Equity Jeb 1st $7.40 $2.20
24/09/2005 Globe Derby5 Black Venom 1st $2.50 $1.70
24/09/2005 Globe Derby6 Maka Million Lombo 2nd $1.04
24/09/2005 Globe Derby7 Casey's Best unplaced


Races Winners
130 43



Ave Winner 3.909302326

For $5 investment
Profit WIN: $190.50




Just for those wondering, Geelong Race's 7, 8 are both non pre-race favourits.

Have a good one.

[Oaksnaf]

Well not that I am up with all the units and stuff in terms of betting.

But one unit =100 dollars right?

Well based on 1 unit bets, this system has a profit of $3810 exactly after 130 races.

Ill be able to start rasing my bets soon hopefully.

Already today, had a winner $1.80 and a 2nd place. With two more to go.

[Oaksnaf]

Today's results:

25/09/2005 Geelong5 By The Palms 1st $1.80 $1.20
25/09/2005 Geelong6 Nitefever 2nd $1.04
25/09/2005 Geelong7 Bootylicious 3rd $2.70
25/09/2005 Geelong8 Purple Passion unplaced

Races: 4
Winners 1: $1.80

Total:

Races 134
Winners 44
Ave Winners: $3.86

Hope for better tommorow, but not a bad weekend.

[Oaksnaf]

A bit late putting up today's bets as was busy celebrating Alonso's World Championship!

But only 2 races today:

Horsham:
race 5) #4 was unplaced
Race 7) #5

And thats it.

[Oaksnaf]

Yesterday had both unplaced:

ALbion Park:
Race 6) #5
Race 9) #1

Harold Park:
Race 2) #7
Race 3) #5
Race 5) #2
Race 7) #1

Bendigo:
Race 3) #4
Race 6) #4

[Chrome Prince]

Oaksnaf,

Seems to be ticking along nicely.

You profit still seems to come from the longer priced horses getting up.

Might I suggest some class filter to weed out the poison ivy?

E.G. Keep copious records of every horse, then see how you go taking Unitab 100 raters or highest career prizemoney runners only.

Your strike rate should increase more than the average price will plummet.

[Oaksnaf]

Oaksnaf,

Seems to be ticking along nicely.

You profit still seems to come from the longer priced horses getting up.

Might I suggest some class filter to weed out the poison ivy?

E.G. Keep copious records of every horse, then see how you go taking Unitab 100 raters or highest career prizemoney runners only.

Your strike rate should increase more than the average price will plummet.
Yeh the profit is coming from those every now and again long odds that get in.

A class filter? Do you mean betting on particular classes, or rulling out the horses than are dropping in class?

Ahh ok, so basically keeping the favourites and ruling out the longer ones?

And in regards to highest prize money, do you mean in the one race? because usually there is only 1 qualifier per race.

Although today, there are multiple qualifiers in:

Albion Park Race 9

Harold Park Race 3

[Oaksnaf]

Chrome, i tried the Uni tab 100:

races: 25
Winnes: 12

Outlay: 25
return: 25.3

And that was including a $7 winner. So with such small returns from the hot favourties rated 100, everytime one missed a win it really hurt the returns.

But 25/55 of my selections were 100 raters:

Now excluding all 100 Uni tab raters

Races: 30
Winners: 8

Outlay: 30
Return: 35.1

More profit excluding the 100 raters despite having more races and less winners.

[Chrome Prince]

A class filter? Do you mean betting on particular classes, or rulling out the horses than are dropping in class?

Neither, I mean restricting bets to horses which have more class than the other runners in the race.


Ahh ok, so basically keeping the favourites and ruling out the longer ones?


Nope, not filtering by starting price, but you could try that, it works well for my system. Although given the rules to your system, I think that could make things worse not better.


And in regards to highest prize money, do you mean in the one race? because usually there is only 1 qualifier per race.


Yes, but not backing them just because they have the highest prizemoney, they have to fit the other rules also. Only one horse can win the race (except in a deadheat) ;)

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome, i tried the Uni tab 100:

races: 25
Winnes: 12

Outlay: 25
return: 25.3

And that was including a $7 winner. So with such small returns from the hot favourties rated 100, everytime one missed a win it really hurt the returns.

But 25/55 of my selections were 100 raters:

Now excluding all 100 Uni tab raters

Races: 30
Winners: 8

Outlay: 30
Return: 35.1

More profit excluding the 100 raters despite having more races and less winners.

I see, but I'll guarantee if you take out the longest priced winner, the second set shows a bigger loss than taking the same out of the 100 raters.

Bottom line: it would help if you compile a database of every selections full details including prizemoney, prizemoney rank, tote price, prev finishing position, api, etc etc etc and revisit it after a few hundred bets.
I'm sure certain things would become glaringly obvious.

Tip: watch out for horses increasing or dropping by big distances, they are a costly conveyance in harness racing.

[Oaksnaf]

Yesterday had both unplaced:

ALbion Park:
Race 6) #5
Race 9) #1

Harold Park:
Race 2) #7
Race 3) #5
Race 5) #2
Race 7) #1

Bendigo:
Race 3) #4
Race 6) #4
Results:

Albion Park
Race 6) #5 unplaced
Race 9) #1 1st $2.90, $1.70

Harold Park:
Race 2) #7 2nd $1.04
Race 3) #5 1st $1.40, $1.10
Race 5) #2 unplaced
Race 7) #1 2nd $1.04

Bendigo:
Race 3) #4 unplaced
Race 6) #4 1st $6.90, $1.90

So races: 8
Winners: 3

Outlay: $8
Return: $11.20

[Oaksnaf]

Well, did a little research up until the 16/9/05 as thats all the form guides i have sitting around. Which has a total of 64 selections.

And for Chrome Prince, the biggest winner after 16/9/05 was $10.50.

Pre-race odds under $2:
races: 16
return: $13.90

Pre-race odds equal/over $2:
Races: 48
Return: $57.80

One is loosing and the other well isn't that impressive.

Pre-race odds equal/over $3:
Races: 40
Return: $55

Getting a little bit better.

Now i went through these 64 selections, and found my highest pre-race odds winner. To my surprise the highest pre-race odd winner was only $5.

So i thought pre-race odds between $3-$5
Races:23
REturn: $55
Winners: 10
Ave winner: $5.50

And how many were pre-race favourites??

12 were pre-race favourite:
and 7 of those selections won.

So only 3 winners were non pre-race favourite: $3.00, $5.40, $10.50

SO:
Races: 12
Winners: 7
Return: $35.70

Now that is quite interesting. There could be something in that for sure, ill keep you all up to date. But it looks promosing, and whats more less selections aswell with a bigger profit.

So here we have 24 horses that are under $3 pre-race and 18 horses that are over $5 pre-race and not one pre-race horse over $5 won a race.

Well todays races:

Mildura:

Race 5) #1 ($2.50) pre-race FAV
Race 7) #6 ($2.30) pre-race FAV
Race 9) #6 ($3.00) pre-race FAV

So judging by the above results: Race 9) #6 seems the way to go.

[Oaksnaf]

ops forgot to write down:

Mildura:
Race 6) #4 (pre-race favourite $2.30)

Overall: Races Winners
144 47



Ave Winner 3.853191489

best of luck.

[Oaksnaf]

Results:

28/09/2005 Mildura5 Charlie Magee unplaced
28/09/2005 Mildura6 Ricks Revenge 1st $1.70 $1.20
28/09/2005 Mildura7 Cosmic Legacy 1st $1.40 $1.04
28/09/2005 Mildura9 Lelepa 2nd $1.40

[Chrome Prince]

Great work Oaksnaf.

Perhaps revisit that statistical breakdown next month and more patterns may emerge.

There's a lot to be gained from harness racing, as the analysis has not been done as intensely as horseracing in general, so there are quite a few unknowns to the masses that we can exploit.

[partypooper]

Chrome etc, I agree in principle, but I think that a decent bet would corrupt the divis to an unacceptable extent almost in every case.

[robbo]

Results:

28/09/2005 Mildura5 Charlie Magee unplaced
28/09/2005 Mildura6 Ricks Revenge 1st $1.70 $1.20
28/09/2005 Mildura7 Cosmic Legacy 1st $1.40 $1.04
28/09/2005 Mildura9 Lelepa 2nd $1.40

am i missing something? chrome prince follows with a 'great work' comment i see for $4 total outlay ($1 win each) get back $3.10?? a loss in anyones lingo!

[Oaksnaf]

am i missing something? chrome prince follows with a 'great work' comment i see for $4 total outlay ($1 win each) get back $3.10?? a loss in anyones lingo!
Chrome is refering to this:

So i thought pre-race odds between $3-$5
Races:23
REturn: $55
Winners: 10
Ave winner: $5.50

And how many were pre-race favourites??

12 were pre-race favourite:
and 7 of those selections won.

So only 3 winners were non pre-race favourite: $3.00, $5.40, $10.50

SO:
Races: 12
Winners: 7
Return: $35.70

Its a pre-race odd breakdown that showed me some decent results.

Tonight at Shep there are two bets:

Race 3) #3 ($1.04) obviously fav
Race 5) #1 Alberts Bird ($4) not favourite

Ill do some more breakdowns and see what i can come up with, but so far so good.

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome etc, I agree in principle, but I think that a decent bet would corrupt the divis to an unacceptable extent almost in every case.

Agreed Partypooper, I usually have $100 eachway and the divvies stand up o.k., but if I wanted to "go the hog" I'd be spreading the bets around and going on course.

Betting very early is the key, that way the dividends level out, rather than everyone following 'a move'.

[Oaksnaf]

Hmm i cant seem to back track a particular harness runners form to the beginning of his career. Because all i wanted was to see what was their last class win, and by what marjin. If anyone knows where to get that info, would be appreciated.

Basically a nice outline, of going up or down or staying in the same class as last start would help me a lot to come to a more informed conclusion of why particular runners win in the same system.

[Oaksnaf]

Another little interesting factor:

w/races p/races
31 37
w/wins p/wins
14 11
w/% p/%
45.16129032 29.72972973
Total divi Total Divi
36.2 34.2
Ave Tote Ave tote
2.585714286 3.109090909


The w = has won past 2 races
The p = has placed then won.

As all selections has won last start.

So basically, less selections, more winners, lower average winner, but more profit for the selections that have won their past two starts.

Hmm interesting.

AND!

Places/Favourite

Races 19:
Winners: 10
Return: 23.50

Win/Fav
Race: 22
Winners: 11
Return: $24

So favourites are the way to go:

Places/ non fav
Races: 18
Winners: 1
Return: 5.40

Wins/ non fav
Races: 9
Winners: 3
Return: 16.60

[Oaksnaf]

Today's bets:

Yarra Valley:
Race 7) #9

Harold Park:
Race 1) #8
Race 3) #9
Race 4) #3
Race 7) #9
Race 8) #11

Of the selected bets, Yarra Valley Race 7) #9 and Harold Park race 7) #9 seem the bets bets.

[Oaksnaf]

Chrome is refering to this:



Its a pre-race odd breakdown that showed me some decent results.

Tonight at Shep there are two bets:

Race 3) #3 ($1.04) obviously fav
Race 5) #1 Alberts Bird ($4) not favourite

Ill do some more breakdowns and see what i can come up with, but so far so good.
Race 3) #3 1st $1.04, $1.00
Race 5) #1 2nd

I forgot to add Mooney Valley races tonight:

race 2) #8
race 3) #8
race 4) #9
race 6) #6
Race 7) #13
Race 8) #6

Best selection Race 7) #13
going on results statistics