Player Ratings-AGAIN

[moeee]

Well after copping a bath from my brief foray into the thoroughbred field,I'm back with something in the footy field.
After spending much time putting together a database of player ratings,I've found no major improvement in my profits.In fact there has been a major loss from last years punting.
But in all fairness to my efforts,this year has been a disaster for those that follow the masses.

Something I have learnt is that winners keep on winning and losers keep on losing.In the field of head to head contests that is.

So the new style is to again use my team ratings.But to also average out the last 10 head to head games between the 2 opponents.And to combine the two ratings.
So if the ratings suggest a win to St.Kilda by 18 points,but the H/H averages suggest a win to Port Power by 4 points,Then I will select St.Kilda by 7 points.

Sportznut.Do you have any comment to make on this idea?

[moeee]

Sportznut.Do you have any comment to make on this idea?
The silence is deafening!
I'll take that Sportz as a no.

Here is a more acceptable view of what the wagers will be.By averaging head to head with my own,pathetic performing,team ratings.

Essendon $50
Hawthorn NO BET
Carlton $60
Port Adelaide NO BET
Sydney NO BET
Adelaide NO BET
Kangaroos NO BET
Collingwood $50

These are in fact my bets for the weekend.

[Macca]

EDITED.

[moeee]

I forgot to mention that the suggestions were at the line.

[BJ]

So if the ratings suggest a win to St.Kilda by 18 points,but the H/H averages suggest a win to Port Power by 4 points,Then I will select St.Kilda by 7 points.

Sportznut.Do you have any comment to make on this idea?

I have a question. How come Saints by 7 points? Saints +18, Saints -4 = Saints + 14.....

I guess you are putting more emphasis on the head to head?

How about this for an idea. Only do ratings on games where the favourite is paying more than $1.60. On the other games, back against the favourite, chances are it is not value for money.
Take the Saints the other day. Started about $1.35 over Port Power about $2.7. Obviously a case of the favourite starting way too short, could not touch them at that price, whereas getting $2.7 for the reigning premiers, easy money....

[moeee]

I have a question. How come Saints by 7 points? Saints +18, Saints -4 = Saints + 14.....


Well one system says the Saints will win by 18 points.
Another says the Saints will lose by -4 points.
So averaging the 2 systems and dividing by the number of samples,gives 14 divided by 2.Equals 7.
Still copped a bath on the weekend,but I think I might be back!