CRAZY THEORY

Sometimes, I don't know whether to back a horse for a win, place or each way.

I don't like E/W, cause if it runs no where you lose double, unless you halve the win/place amounts which I don't like doing. If you go win and it places you're not happy, if you go place and it wins, you're not happy.

Somedays I will place all win bets and take the good with the bad, knowing that all I need is a couple of wins for a good day. Other days, I place a mix of win and place bets.

Other than by looking at the size of the win and place dividends, I was thinking that there must be another way of deciding what bet to make.

Given that a lot of winners finished in the first 2 last start - I was thinking that if any of your selections ran 1st or 2nd last start - bet for a win, otherwise bet for a place. Ignore the size of the place div, unless its less than $1.60.

Thoughts & Ideas welcome ?????????

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-14 20:43 ]</font>

[Placegetter]

chief, there are a lot of place bettors in this forum, me being one of them, but one theory I did like recently (Privateer??) was to bet 1 unit win/3 or 4 units place. It's more for a place bettor delving into win betting rather than the other way around, but you need a fairly solid strike rate to be a place bettor in the long term so don't dismiss win betting straight away.

Good luck.

[Equine Investor]

All codes of betting have their merits, however, my advice would be to stick to one type and stay with it. When you chop and change often, rarely do you win.

The other way you could do it is win only up to say 10/1 and each way above 10/1, that way if your longshot just misses at least you get a valuable place dividend which should fully recoup your win loss.

[Bhagwan]

The concept sounds fine , but the only way to find out if the idea has any legs would be to research it over 150 races, then go from there.

I would be inclined to have a min. price that you will accept before placing a bet for a win , if it falls below that price E.G. $3.30 or $4.50 win ,you could then hit it for a place only or no bet for that race.

One way would be to base it on "unders" and "overs".

Bookies give you 1/4 of the win odds for a place - ie 4/1 win = 1/1 place or $2.

Whereas on the TAB, place divs can be way unders. Sometimes, however they represent good value.

Examples
place overs
$9 win; $3.30 place ($3 with bookies)
$21 win; $7 place ($6 with bookies)

Assuming the win dividends represent fair value, if place dividend is above "fair value" then bet for a place - otherwise win bet.