Pricing

[Benny]

Does anyone have a basic method of pricing the main chances in a race. Usually 4 or 5?

benny

[Mad Chris]

You can't just price a few runners mate you have to rate the whole fields chances and then price the lot to come up with a serious price for the stronger chances.

Otherwise your just guessing.

Not as mad as I look

Doh

[punter57]

I'd be interested in knowing how the bookies arrive at THEIR odds. If someone has experience of their methods could you, maybe, give a working example for a race, say, tomorrow or Friday. Thanks,in advance, I hope!!! Cheers

[Mad Chris]

90% of todays bookmakers (cough cough) frame their opening market from the early TAB prices (around 145 to 165%) OR copy each other (Doh same result)

The other 10% hire analysits (I droped out of kindy so kan't spell and always have trouble with this word) to frame a market then bet around that market and the weight of money

[davez]

a few of the bookies at my old local track (fannie bay!) used a fella out of sydney whos name escaped me long ago, who would fax thru his markets on a saturday & wednesday morning. i was always amazed at how accurate they were so had to assume that a lot of southern bookies were also using them.

cost about $150 for the 3 main meets, & seemed to be money well spent, as the bookies rarley were seen with their shorts around their ankles. that usually only happened after the odd local race or 2! :)

benny, i assume you want early odds & as there is no one simple method that one can use with any real accuracy, all i could recommend is a website like the WA Tab, they can be a bit off but in general they have identified most of the shorties.

otherwise just wait for the markets to open, havent got anything more important to do have you!? :)

[Mr ed]

Was a weekly, often bi-weekly visitor of the Fannie Bay racecourse myself Davez, me old man's work put us up in this ripper house on East Point Road, tennis court, pool it was called 'The Plantation'. And the best part, less then a km away from the track, there was always a bookie on course so could get "board odds" for every race, every day, it was great. The $5 shanks on Wednesdays were an absolute bonus. As for framing a market; it is very subjective. I go about things a different way, if i think a horse will win i trust the powers that be to come up with its' price, the main aim is to get the best odds available on every bet you make.

[davez]

wasnt the "jim beam" house was it?

[Mr ed]

Two doors down, at 102. Had a massive front yard with heaps of palms, i know how many because i was the barstard picking up all the frons and coconuts. Great place to live, Darwin, hoping to get back for the cup this year.

[punter57]

Evening all. Does anyone know whether bookies SP odds or TAB odds are "closest" to actually observed racing results (in general). You can approach this any way you like, though I imagine it's a case of whether always betting on, say, the fav returns less/more with one or the other, per annum. Likewise the second fav, the third fav etc etc etc, taking into account the differing "edges". Hoping for enlightenment!! Cheers

[moeee]

90% of todays bookmakers (cough cough) frame their opening market from the early TAB prices (around 145 to 165%)
Considering that TAB's are legally bound not to take more than 17% or so,I think you may be mistaken with your 145 to 160% guesstimate!

[Mad Chris]

No guess mate, sit down and add up the opening odds off any opening bookmakers screen and see for your self

[moeee]

I apologise.
When I read your post,It seemed that you were suggesting that the bookies were copying straight off the tote indicators.

[davez]

Two doors down, at 102. Had a massive front yard with heaps of palms, i know how many because i was the barstard picking up all the frons and coconuts. Great place to live, Darwin, hoping to get back for the cup this year.


i remember the one, could almost play a game of footy there provided one didnt kick the ball out the yard, across the road & into the drink :)

the cup, ahh the 2 day recovery sessions are almost a faint memory, ... almost....

[KennyVictor]

This isn't exactly the answer to your question P57 but it spits out of a program I wrote for amusement a while ago so it's easy.

Betting on the favorite over many years at WA
You get 88.77% of your money back from the bookie over 16000 races and 97.44% from Tabcorp (33.5% winners). This includes a lot of piddling races at minor courses, thus, I guess, the high return from tab favorites. - From NSW Tab you get 93.22% from 8750 races (31.5% winners) in the same period (these would be the more major races of course).

Always backing the winner on these same 16000 races - 613% from SP and 793% from Tabcorp.
Betting on the first horse in alphabetical order 62.7% from SP and 79% from Tabcorp.

This is probably not typical Australia wide, I have long suspected SP pays worse in comparison to TAB in WA than it does in say NSW.

I could probably do the same for NSW but would have to do a bit of programming.

KV

[punter57]

Thanks KV. That's exactly what I was after. Makes it pretty clear that on favs or IN GENERAL, the tote is better. I already knew this for longshots as I've many times got three times the odds on the TAB ($60 for a 20-1 bookie quoted horse etc).Thanks again. P57

[KennyVictor]

Curiosity got the better of me and I had to run some figures for NSW.
Just doing figures on races the NSW Tab had a pool on (41700 races overall)

Betting on the SP Favorite SP returned 89.88%, Tab returned 89.74%
Betting on the longest (SP) priced horse SP returned 36.97%, Tab returned 44.52%
Always picking the winner SP returned 683.13%, Tab returned 790.76%

As I suspected the SP prices are particularly miserly in WA. I've noticed when trying to bet to a price over there that I usually go for best div and rarely take the set price being offered wheras it's about half and half in NSW.
Not much between SP and Tab on the favorites but Tab is more generous the longer the price becomes.

KV

[Bhagwan]

Hi Benny,
Heres a simple way of pricing your 4-5 selections per race.

Divide the number of career wins into its career starts.
e.g. 4 wins from 21 starts =5.25/1 or $6.25
e.g. 2 wins from 4 starts = 2/1 or $3.00

This only works where all 4-5 of your selections have had one or more career wins, so its probably best to pass up any race that does not qualify under those said conditions

I hope its all right to post this site , it has a priceing program in there that may be of some use to you.
http://www.ozracetools.com/index.php


Cheers.

[Top Rank]

Bhagwan,

I don't mean to be pedantic but isn't 2wins from 4 starts - 50% or 1-1 even money, which is $2.00.
2-1 means 1 chance in 3 or 1win from 3 starts.

[Mr ed]

the cup, ahh the 2 day recovery sessions are almost a faint memory, ... almost....

2 days, I was sober halfway through Rogie's speech after Wild Heart won, come to think of it 2 days sounds pretty close.

Will never forget the conga line me and about 12 mates formed through the main building when 'Here's Me Mate' won by six and we had all had $50 on it's nose. The chant resinates in my mind to this day; "we won two hun-dred dol-lars".

[Bhagwan]

Hi Top Rank ,
You a correct in that respect, it is done this way to give it a more realistic actual chance of winning , there is no point trying for value betting if ones book value is say 150% over 5 horses ,it has to be closer to say 90% or less if possible , so by adding one point , it evens out the spread , especially on the shorter priced horses.
e.g. 2/1=33% as opposed to 1/1=50%. Book value diff =17% this difference is the amount you dont have to recover if it looses.

Cheers.