Favourites Statistics?

[Equine Investor]

Any Statisticians out there got statistics for 1st and 2nd favourites only?

I know that about 25% of outright favourites win, but about 70% of winners are under $6.00...roughly.

I am inclined to think 40-50% of winners are either 1st or second favs.

For Example, last Saturday out of 75 races I checked 31 winners were either 1st or 2nd FAVS (TAB PRICES) giving 41% strike rate. I don't know if this is typical though, to get an accurate picture you would have to run it over at least 1000 races.
Any stats?


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-17 17:01 ]</font>

[Bhagwan]

1st.& 2nd. FAVORITES

Based on SP prices the
1st.Fav wins 30%
2nd.Fav wins 15%
Total 45%
Based over 5000 races

In the Australian racing season of 1949-50 favs. won 32% of races (Turf Digest. Vol.3,No.2 Sep 1950).
Not much has changed in 50 yrs. In fact this is a statistic found the world over.

Favs. that won last start, won 35% of all races.
It drops away progressivly in line with it`s positioning last start.

Favs. up in class won 32% (surprising)
Favs. down in class won 19%
Favs. equal in class won 36%
Favs. that either won or finished within 2.2 lengths last start , won 32%

50% of winning favs. have not had a win at the course, this stat. would reveal a popular myth, that a fav. that has won at the track is a stronger conveyance than a non-course winner. If one adopted this theory , one would miss out on half the winners .

Last start beaten favs. who are favs. today have a strike rate of 18% (terrible).

If you could treat the race as a 2 horse race & you have the ability to separate them ,you would make a fortune .
Its a good idea not to back your selection unless you can get at least $3.30

A method of separation that seems to work as well as any ,is to back the one of the two, with the widest barrier.The crazy idea seems to work, check it out yourself.



I can see the idea working well with the Retirement Staking Plan using 1.5% Target with a min. divisor of 3.

The 1st. & 2nd Fav. is not a bad stat to start with.

[Equine Investor]

Thanks for the most useful information Bhagwan, it is pretty much as I suspected.

It is always reassuring to have statistics over a long period of time as they are more reliable.

:wink:

BLOODY HELL I JUST TYPED IN A WHOLE HEAP OS STATS AND THE WBESITE LOST IT!

FIRST 3 FAVS (WIN %)
25%
16%
13%

I'M NOT RE-TYPING THE OTHER 3 PAGES.

[Bhagwan]

Your most welcome EI any time.

Dear Cheif ,I`ve had the same situation.
A way of preventing this re-occuring is to leave you code name out until you are ready to post, that way if you have to re-connect ,you wont loose your time consuming efforts.

[Bhagwan]

More Fav. stats.

Favs. with 31%+ winning career strike rate ,have a 40% win rate.(very strong stat.)

Favs. with an allocated weight of 54.5kg win only 10% of races.

The winning strike rate of favs. on WET tracks is almost identical to DRY tracks (another popular myth exposed, that less favs. win in the wet)

Yes, favs with a high career win % have a better record.

I'll try again

Following was from over 600 races (10-16 starters only, no jumps, saturday metro in eastern states, pre-post favs from sat paper)taken a few years ago. Figures are rounded so will add up to slightly more than 100%


---------- 1st--2nd--3rd--top 3
1st fav----25% 16% 13% 54%
2nd--------16% 14% 14% 44%
3rd--------13% 13% 12% 38%
4th--------11% 11% 12% 34%
5th---------9% 11% 9% 29%
6th---------6% 8% 9% 23%
7th---------6% 8% 8% 22%
8th---------5% 8% 7% 20%
9th---------4% 3% 6% 13%
10th--------2% 4% 4% 10%
11-16th-----5% 6% 7% 18%

WIN/PLACE RATIO
1ST --- 46%
2nd --- 36%
3rd --- 34%
4th --- 32%
5th --- 29%
6th --- 26%
7th --- 27%
8th --- 25%
9th --- 31%
10th -- 20%
11-16th 28%
(Amount of times a horse wins, when it finished in top 3, ie 3 wins and 10 places (total) = 30%)

Quick summary (assumes steady %)

1st favs - win bet if win div 2.2 times greater than place div, otherwise place bet.
2-5th favs - win bet if win div is 3 times greater than place div, otherwise place bet.
6th favs - place bet, unless win div is 4.3 times greater than win div.
7-8TH FAV - place bet, unless win div is 4 times greater than place div
9th fav - unusually high win stats here - probably even out over time.
10th fav - place bet, unless win div is 5 times greater than place div.
11-16th fav - win bet!!! If 28% stat holds true, some big divs there.

NB: IF RACES WITH LESS THAN 10 STARTERS WERE INCLUDED, NO DOUBT MORE 1ST FAVS WOULD WIN - STAT WOULD BE CLOSE TO 30% AS BAGWAN INDICATED.

EI -YOU ONLY REMEMBER THE HOTPOTS GETTING ROLLED CAUSE YOU WERE BETTING AGAINST THEM. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, FAVS WIN MORE IN SMALLER FIELDS - LESS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE BAD LUCK AND LESS COMPETITION - MAIN RISK IS WHERE THE FAV IS NOT AN ON PACE RUNNER - OTHERWISE THEY'RE USUALLY OK.






<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-18 11:25 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Thanks Chief, all great information!

:wink:

Small fields worry me though, wouldn't have thought the win % would be as high, as many times the favourite gets rolled in small fields for some reason. But stats could prove me wrong. Just an overall observation /impression that the hotpot gets rolled by an outsider in small fields.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-18 11:17 ]</font>

6th favs had a poor win record - don't know if this would continue LT. If it did, top 5 in pre-post markets is the place to look for most winners. Then look at the rougher end - 9th-16th favs for some nice divs.

I have a system aimed at the top 6 (not many 6th favs get the nod) in betting and one aimed at those roughies.

[Bhagwan]

Nice piece of research Cheif,facinating info , it looks as if you have put a fair amount of the time & energy into this .
Thanks , its appreciated.

[Bhagwan]

I beleive the stats show in small fields 8 & less the percentage of favs. getting up would not be greater than 35%.

Look at dog races, their stats reveil that favs. have a 30% strike rate even though there is only 7-8 runners.

I know I`m comparing a Watermelon with a Strawberry here, it`s just used to highlight a statistic.