Flexi-betting

[Stix]

Dear all

Anyone know when Super TAB introducing "flexi" betting....?? I like the flexi-betting in NSW for tri's.... keeps ur bank "somewhat" protected....

Anyone else use flexi-betting alot? Any comments/experiences on how you've used this bet type for good results?

Yours In Punting

stix

[davez]

excuse my ignorance, but what is it?

[La Mer]

excuse my ignorance, but what is it?

Davez, it's an option to bet on trifecta, first four & quadrella betting using a reduced stake , i.e. a 4x4x4 trifecta would normally cost $24 for a full $1 unit, but using a flexi bet you could take it for (say) $10 which if successful would give you a return of 41.67% of the $1 declared dividend.

The percentage of return depends on how much the amount bet represents a percentage of the normal $1 bet cost, i.e. a $20 flexi on a bet that would normally cost $200 would return 10% of the dividend.

Very popular as it gives the smaller punter the opportunity to bet likes those who bet in larger amounts.

Stix, flexi betting on Supertab is still about 12 months away - about mid-year 2006.

[Stix]

La Mer

Thanks..... do you dabble in flexi.... or are you bank rolled and don't need to swim with us little fishes ??

Yours In Punting

Stix

[La Mer]

La Mer

Thanks..... do you dabble in flexi.... or are you bank rolled and don't need to swim with us little fishes ?? Yours In Punting Stix

Stix, I use flexi betting, mainly on the quadrella lately and the first fours (had some success) - think it's about the only positive thing the tote have introduced over the last few years - far, far better than the spinner (does that still operate?)

[Stix]

Think the spinner is well and truly deceased...... wasn't much of a fan.

I'm with you, flexi betting is by far and a way the best punting option in the last few years, the exacta is a good option as well - probably my pet, as seem to get more value out of loading up on exacta than going a tri... just my experience - especially where short fav involved.

[Shaun]

Flexi betting is good for small punters....but for those that know what they are doing it doesn't offer anything really .....as for protecting the bank this is just an illusion because you are not really doing anything different from normal punting except for smaller amounts....smaller amounts bet equal smaller returns nothing more.

[bluetown]

Ditto Shaun, an illusion.

Has anyone noticed there are not many Trifecta races that have a Jackpot ?
There used to be 3 Jackpot Trifecta Races a week, at least on average at some stage in the past.
This was before Flexibet came along.

[luv2bet]

Stix,
Just reading your post about exactas and I think in a way its another scam by the tabs to decieve us punters, I dislike them. If you go back over a number of races and check results you will find that more often than not the exacta isnt paying more than double the quinella. just at a glance there were only two races at grafton today and 2 at horsham where the exacta paid more than double therefore you wouldve been better off taking quinellas. 1 unit on an exact costs double than a quinella so therefore has to pay double or better. I know of a lot of people that thought exactas were the best thing since sliced bread until I pointed that out.
Hope it helps.

[Stix]

L2B

hmmmm..... true....

Thanks for the heads up..... but as long as your infront, but from what you say - could be in front by more !!

Thanks

stix

[angel417]

I cannot understand why anyone would waste their money on an exacta.It is hard enough to pick the winner without having to pick 1st & 2nd in the correct order!!And can anyone tell me if you are so sure of 1st & 2nd why you would not hit the trifecta??AB/AB/field??The quinella is much better value,and they can finish in any order.However,to be successful in quinella betting you must bet to prices,not blindly follow the herd.If there is any show of interest I will start a thread devoted to quinella betting only.

[good 4th]

What about dutch betting Quinellas.
Maybe pick a couple of numbers, combos.
Dutch to win a set amount $100 or spread across the odds to spend $100

If the odds are good, win more than you loose.

[Stix]

Angel,

I understand what you are saying.

The way I bet is that I usually:

only bet on a limited number of races where I think (in my mind) there is a horse that should win (say 1-2 per meeting)
have an exacta x 5 (with 3 for second, or some times 4 or 5 for second)
have flexi tri for 33%
I don't calclulate to win a certain amount, I just bet to win more than I out lay and then stop.

I have made a lot of money doing it this way, however I don't like to bet significant amounts of money (which is all relative to the punter in question...) on any particular race or "load up" (I'm a bit like a4brianp - steady as she goes). Granted, I may have won more than I have, but if the dog didn't stop to have sh*t, it would have caught the hare......!!

It's worked for me, so I'm happy.

Just a question - If you like quinellas so much, do you dabble in duets/any 2's ??

Yours In Punting

stix

[angel417]

Stix,
Thanks your reply.I assume a duet is the NSW version of the any 2,and no,I wouldn't touch either with a barge pole.If your approach with exactas works for you stick with it.My angle is similar to yours,I look for at least one standout(IMO)at each of the major meetings.If nothing "jumps out and picks itself"I go thru each state and concentrate on the race with the shortest PP fav.Then I run the fav thru a strict selection criteria and if it qualifies it becomes the banker.I then price it coupled with the next 5 in the PP market and bet each state to win a $100(plus my stake).I don't bet in fields greater than 11,as the percentages start working against you.I prefer quinellas to exactas because you have the added insurance that if your "good thing"gets nutted on the post,you could still get the quin.If you get nutted in an exacta,your money is down the gurgler.
The thing with quinellas that the majority of punters don't savvy is that the real value lies in the shorter priced combos.If you do your homework and bet to prices you will get approx. 80% overlays in the evens / 10/1 range.This is because the average punter will see a short priced fav and take it with the field hoping for a bolter to come 2nd.
Here are some expected divvies with bolters........

6/4 /20/1..............18/1
6/4.../25/1............23/1
6/4../50/1.............47/1
6/4../100/1............93/1

As the figures show there is very little value in taking the field with a short price fav.
My method is to cover the next 5 in the pp market to win $100,then cover my arse with the roughies for the same result at very minimal extra cost.
Remember the first 5 horses in the PP win approx. 80% of all races,so the figures are with you.And at the shorter end of the scale a quin you priced @$3.80 can and does often pay $5 and up,because the small punters won't take it,leaving the pool to be plundered.
Hope I haven't bored you too much.
cheers

[KennyVictor]

1 unit on an exact costs double than a quinella so therefore has to pay double or better.

Have to say I disagree with you here Luv2bet. If you take an exacta on a short priced horse as first and longer priced horse as second you shouldn't expect to get as big a divvy as if you take the longer priced horse as first and the short priced horse as second. Obviously the chances of the shorter priced horse winning are better than the longer priced horse winning so the exacta divvy will be less.
Following on from this the quinella should be the average of the two possible exacta prices so if the shorter priced of the exacta's came up there is no reason why it should be double the price of the quinella.

I find if I bet on exactas using my best and second best rated horse in the right order I actually do better overall (only by about 5%) than if I put the same amount of money on quinellas using the same horses.

While I'm being disagreeable :-) I'll disagree with Angel as well. If I'm sure of first and second I'll take an exacta I think is going to win rather than a trifecta that, although it might be worth more, is probably going to loose.
My system comes up with 8.00% strike rate on exactas, and only 2.23% on Trifectas - 1 win in almost 50 is a long time between drinks.

KV

[Merriguy]

Some interesting stuff here guys. Thanks. These forums are at their best when there are plenty of inputs and sharing. Have been a way for a while. Missed you all. Aw shucks!!

Angel, is there a 'rule of thumb' to give you an idea of what to invest for your $100, say, return --- or do you have to watch the prices to the last minute. You say you invest on all three TABs so I guess there must be some (relatively) easy way to guesstimate what the reurn will be?!?

[dimboola]

I think SuperTab is bringing in Flexi betting in 2006 as well as first 4 over the line.

[angel417]

Merriguy,
welcome back,I've been away a long time also.
Luv2bet,as far as I know,at least with unitab,a quinella & exacta both cost the same,$1,unless you take multiple quinellas,then you can use 50c units.I don't know if the exacta is the same as I have never taken one.
Theoretically I imagine the exacta would,or should pay more as not as many punters would get it right without the quinella option of your banker being able to run 2nd and you stillcollect if you have the winner.My point being that more people would collect from the quinella pool making the divvies smaller.
Kenny,I am bemused by your words.If you are sure of 1st & 2nd you would rather an exacta that will win than a trifecta that will probably lose??If you are sure of 1st & 2nd,and assuming right in your judgement,why not take an ab/ab/field trifecta?If you are right with 1 & 2,then you MUST get the trifecta,it can't lose.
Merriguy,
I don't have any rules of thumb as such.I look at the4 mainland states and concentrate on any race with the pp fav in the odds range 6/4-2/1.Then I run each one thru my selection criteria to determine whether it is a false fav or not.If it passes,I then run the next runners in the pp market,with a cutoff point of 10/1,thru another set of rules.
Things can vary(according selection criteria)some days being no bet in certain states,some races being only 1 or 2 quinellas,some races 5 qualify for 2nd place.
I work all my bets out on Friday night using the Wizard formguide.I do not have to watch the screen up to the last minute as I work on pp markets.
I use mathematically calculated expected odds quinella charts,so I know what my outlay is per race per state well in advance.
I know markets can and do change overnight,sometimes it goes against me,but on the larger scale I am well in front.
My s/r is a healthy 45%,am aiming to get it above 50% before years end.
cheers

[luv2bet]

I never dabble in quinellas and exactas but I thing I know is in boxing selections the cost is double.
2 selections boxed quinella 1 unit = $1
2 selections boxed exacta 1 unit = $2
3 selections boxed quinella 1 unit = $3
3 selections boxed exacta 1 unit = $6
and so on...
Im not sure on pricing as far as using bankers with othre selections goes, but boxing them is double.
LUV2BET

[KennyVictor]

Kenny,I am bemused by your words.If you are sure of 1st & 2nd you would rather an exacta that will win than a trifecta that will probably lose??If you are sure of 1st & 2nd,and assuming right in your judgement,why not take an ab/ab/field trifecta?If you are right with 1 & 2,then you MUST get the trifecta,it can't lose.


Fair comment on the surface I guess. The truth of the matter is though you can never be sure of 1st and 2nd. It's just a case of personal preference but I feel I can do better with targetted betting, meaning taking no more than two horses in a quinella and three in a trifecta. Taking the field to me smacks of betting against yourself, watering down your bets on winning combinations and generally sticking a pin in the form guide. Each to his own though.

KV

[Merriguy]

Thanks for the reply and your thoughts, Angel. Will try to assimilate the wisdom there.

Yes I have been away for a while --- but not as long as yourself. Good to have you back.

By the way, luv2bet has things right with regard to quinellas and exactas. While you can bet only a dollar on the exacta, you only get back half the dividend.

[angel417]

KV,
please don't get me wrong,but if you are limiting yourself to only 2 horses in an exacta & 3 horses in a trifecta you are going to suffer long runs of outs,as evidenced by your % figures in one of your other posts.If you are sure in any given race that you have nailed 1st & 2nd,why not take those 2 as bankers and throw in another 5 horses to run 2nd?I don't know the exacta cost,but quinella wise it would only be $10 @ $1,or $5 @ .50c,and would enhance your chances of a collect,plus you have the added insurance of 1 of your bankers running 2nd and still be a chance of a collect.
cheers