Rockie System

Here's a system that may work:

Find a horse that is

1. Trained by top trainer
2. Placed last start
3. Carrying less than 53 kgs.
4. Priced at more than $5.00

Put your pebbles on it.

[Equine Investor]

Sounds o.k. to me!

Watch out Roadrunner...the Wylie Old Coyote is after you on his ACME Trojan Horse.

:grin:

Sounds ok.

[mr magic]

With limit weights at 53kg your system would require an apprentice jockey - am I right?

No, just eliminates the big ones.
Some senior jockeys can get down to 50-53kgs.
Munce, Seamer for instance.

Most apprentices seem to be good these days anyway.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Roadrunner on 2002-06-18 16:33 ]</font>

[mr magic]

Sorry Roadrunner you missed my point.
When the limit weight is 53 only an apprentice can ride at less than 53.

What are you talking about?
I never mentioned minimum weights.

[mr magic]

The limit weight for nearly all races is 53kgs. Your system requires you to place bets on horses that carry UNDER 53kgs. Therefore your selections in nearly all races are carrying under the limit weight which of course means they must be ridden by apprentices claiming an allowance. If it were a high quality handicap then perhaps the limit would be less than 53 and a senior lightweight could ride but in your week in week out races, 52.5 or less means claiming apprentice.
I'm not having a go, just asking if that's how your idea works.

[Big Orange]

Your point was well made, Mr Magic.

I'm sure most of the experienced punters on this forum understood the reference to limit weight in the context intended.

Good on you for making the effort (twice) to enlighten.

Big Orange said:
"Your point was well made, Mr Magic"
Actually it wasn't - limit weight is not 53kgs in Vic or QLd.

He then stated:
"I'm sure most of the experienced punters on this forum understood the reference to limit weight in the context intended"
I hope they are aware that the limit weight in Vic and QLD is different to NSW.

Finally he said:
"Good on you for making the effort (twice) to enlighten"

How about I enlighten the readers about limit weights (See below)

(excluding steeples/hurdles)
8/8 races at Doomben on 25 May - weight limit was 52kgs or 52.5kgs.
8/8 races at Doomben on 15 June - as above
4/6 races at Sandown on 15 June - weight limit of 52kgs.
5/8 races at EF on 1st June - 50-52kgs
6/6 races at Flemington on 8 June - were 52-52.5kgs.
7/8 races at EF on 8 June were 52kgs or less.
5/7 races at MV on 25 May were 52kgs.
7/7 races at Sandown 1 June were 52-52.5kgs

Have I proved my point yet?...

Obviously in Sydney where the limit is 53kgs, an apprentice is needed but as you can see in the other states their are plenty of betting opportunities.

Raising the limit to 53kgs makes the fields more even I think - even though they all rise 1kg, a 1kg change at the 52kg level is a higher % than at the 58kg level.








<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Roadrunner on 2002-06-19 12:14 ]</font>

I made this posting in good faith. I hope next time, people check their facts before they start harassing someone making a posting. I'm now glad I didn't include the final selection point.

[Big Orange]

Hi Roadrunner,

Perhaps you could read the entire thread again and appreciate the purpose of my words "in the context intended" in my second sentence.

Good luck with your system, Roadrunner. I hope it brings some good results. Look forward to you posting the weekly selections.

Beep! Beep! :smile:

Orange,

[quote]
On 2002-06-18 21:45, mr magic wrote:
"The limit weight for nearly all races is 53kgs. Your system requires you to place bets on horses that carry UNDER 53kgs. Therefore your selections in nearly all races are carrying under the limit weight which of course means they must be ridden by apprentices claiming an allowance."

Clearly it is not correct in the context it was intended as only NSW has a 53kg limit weight - therefore its not possible for "nearly all races" to have a weight limit of 53kgs.

As I pointed out the majority of races in Vic and Qld have limit weights of 52kgs.

However, I am aware that most experienced punters already know this.

I hope I have enlightened a few unexperienced people (twice).










<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Roadrunner on 2002-06-19 19:51 ]</font>

4 bets on saturday using this system for 1 win paying about $15.

[supersoul]

How about narrowing it down a bit more by looking at class of race and distance analizing past results? Not that 25% at that odds really need it!

I wish I had access to a database, and that my PC skills were a bit better...

Sigh...

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: supersoul on 2002-06-25 13:38 ]</font>

[Glenno]

Here's a system that may work:

Find a horse that is

1. Trained by top trainer
2. Placed last start
3. Carrying less than 53 kgs.
4. Priced at more than $5.00

Put your pebbles on it.
If anyone has done a testing of the system, could you please give the results as soon as possible?

[blocka]

Glenno i can do it for Sydney or Melbourne if you give me a list a trainers you want classified as a 'top trainer'.

For my list of 'top trainers' in melbourne since 1/1/2003 it gives the following:
Wins = 20
Starts = 241
Places = 81
S/R = 8.3%
LOT = 27.2%

[blocka]

And for Sydney since 1/1/2003 it gives the following:
Wins = 26
Starts = 320
Places = 73
S/R = 8.1%
LOT = 18.8%

[Glenno]

Glenno i can do it for Sydney or Melbourne if you give me a list a trainers you want classified as a 'top trainer'.
I could classify a 'top trainer' as the number one trainer.

[Dr Pangloss]

This thing is a big loser Glendo in it's current form. Resorting to "top" trainers does more harm than good so I dropped that idea altogether in coming up with the following:

Sat Metro Syd + Melb only
5yo+ aged horses eliminated (sorry Kenchar)
eliminate maidens (you know who you are)
can not be first up
must have placed last start
must be weighted to carry 52.5kg or less
SP 5.0 or more
Must have a Predicted Posn Rank 1-3 per Bet Selector

NSW TAB divs June 2001 - present

Races 188
Races won 31
SR/Race 16.5%
Bets($1 unit) 214
Profit 175 units
POT 81.8%

The place results show 14.3% POT for good measure.

[blocka]

Hey Dr,
Can you explain what you mean by 'Must have a Predicted Posn Rank 1-3 per Bet Selector'
Also have a look at results for price <=$5 rather than >
Cheers,
Blocka

[Zlotti]

Hey Dr,
Can you explain what you mean by 'Must have a Predicted Posn Rank 1-3 per Bet Selector'
Also have a look at results for price <=$5 rather than >
Cheers,
Blocka
Is that you again Roachy?

[Dr Pangloss]

Blocka

I pulled this thing apart and put it back again piece by piece. The weakness in all these systems, as has been stated ad nauseum, is that they all suffer from back-fitting. Thus the chances of future performance resembling past performance is tenuous indeed.

Having said all that - let me say this. The underlying "theme" of this system is that form horses (placed last start), underated by the handicapper (52.5 kg or less) can offer enough value to squeeze out a profit.

The "top trainer" filter sought to qualify the selections. I discarded this in favour of a more race objective and enduring filter in the shape of a ratings "rank". The "ratings" I chose belongs to the software known as Bet Selector.

Bet Selector has three ratings methods available to use and backtest on a set of given variables. I cherry picked the PP ratings as the best performing under the given scenario. Each of the different "ratings" produced substantial profits, but PP ratings generated the most. I would suggest ratings from say UniTab or other sources could be substituted with profitable effect.

I also discarded Brisbane and Adelaide as these venues produced a smallish loss. Back-fitting?? You be the judge.

Horses under 5.0 produced smaller profits for the past two years (from memory) but beyond that generated larger losses which surprised me a bit. But if you included them all a substantial profit would have still been made.

Overall I am cautiuosly optimistic about this system that seeks out the contrary or the overlooked but rated and in-form contender.

PS Don't tell anyone as I'm thinking of flogging this in Kenchar's favourite racing magazine.

[partypooper]

Gawd Doc. you sounded "ALMOST" human there!!!

[Chuck]

Glenno - how do you access posts from the old forum?

[davez]

nup wont work this one, has all the hallmarks of a system my old dad ran 20? years ago, no idea what the name of it was but it soon put a sizable hole in his sky rocket after looking good on paper (not that he hadnt done that before!)

would have also thought the small increases in limit weights over time would have cut selections substantialy.

[darkydog2002]

DAVEZ,

That system your dad had .
It wouldn,t have been "George Greys Infallible racing system "would it.?

Cheers.
darky.

[Glenno]

Glenno - how do you access posts from the old forum?
Which forum are you talking about?

[beton]

This forum was upgraded some time back and the link to the old threads have gone but if you use search you can still pick them up as complete threads

Regards Beton

[davez]

DAVEZ,

That system your dad had .
It wouldn,t have been "George Greys Infallible racing system "would it.?

Cheers.
darky.

doesnt ring a bell darky, but well could have been.

however using the word "infallible" to describe one's product would usually have sent the old man running the other way! :)

[darkydog2002]

Davez.

The system idea was to look at those horses well favored in the market and tipster column with weight a maximum of 1 kg over the limit.(0.5- 1kg )

Maybe someone could do something with it.

Cheers.
darky.