MIDDLE DISTANCE BLUES system
 

Now that spring racing is sprung, I thought I'd put up this middle distance system of mine for those interested. It's a goody.

For Syd. Adl., Brisb.and Melb., Metro any day.

1. 3yrs. old and up [exclude 6yr. olds and up as contenders], 1400 to 2240m.
2. Must have had 3 runs in and be in barrier 1 to 7.
3. PP price between $3 and $9 [can use any reasonable source].
4. Last start 18 days or less.
5. If good or dead track must have won in either.
6. If slow or heavy track must have won in either
7. If more than one contender choose the lower TAB number.

Tentative runners for tomorrow using odds and condt's from the Winning Post [excluding scratchings] are:

Syd.
R3/4 Wild Queen
R4/5 Dream Ballad
R5/8 Wild Iris
R7/5 Lotteria
R8/4 Media
Melb.
R5/4 Vision and Power
R6/1 Pinezero
R8/15 Dizelle
R10/4 Niconero
Adl.
R4/4 Iceland
R5/1 Clearview Bay
Brisb.
R1/2 Rampant Lion

good luck.

PS. If I've made any mistakes, I'm sure someone will let me know [thanks] :-)

Crash,

Not having a go at your system here, but why barrier 1-7? I've noticed that a lot of other systems also use barrier 1-7. Why??? Why should barrier 7 do so much better than barrier 8? It makes no sense.

Sportz,

My guess is that being barrier 8 means you have already given up several meters at the jump on the first few barriers. This may just be a mental thing more than a statistical thing.

Another reason is that there are 7 more horses that could get caught up in front of you IF they all jump at the same speed. I don't see this as being too much of a problem for a horse that can get away quick enough. Being in the outside barriers sometimes means falling behind till the straight, which can be an advantage or disadvantage.

As a disadvantage it means you might have to go wide on the turn to get a clear run and worst of all you might not get a clear run if there are 18 horses in front of you all side by side.

These are just my thoughts and have no scientific proof behind them. Good horses in outside barriers will still win.

Thanks

Thanks for the input.

I'm not sure who it was, but there was published in this forum by a very respected and astute contributor here, someone with one of those vast data bases, published the averages for winning barriers. Barrier 1-7 was where the action was on average [barrier 8 is where the winners start to slide]. Beyond that, sure there is the horse in the outside barrier that gets up now and then at great odds etc. but what I am trying to do here is produce potential winners at the best frequency possible. I'm not trawling for exceptions and I know there are plenty of them. Win the war not the battle is always my war-cry.

Crash,

As I said, I'm not having a go at you or this system. It's just that I've seen many systems that use barriers 1-7 and it just doesn't seem to make much sense to me. Why should barrier 7 be successful and barrier 8 not? I suppose if you're making a rule regarding barriers, you have to have a cutoff point somewhere. I just can't quite work out why it's 7.

If someone can reproduce some figures regarding barriers, it would be appreciated.

Well I think my answer is in my post Sportz but I'd still listen to any criticism from you anyway so don't fret it. I'd like to see those figures again too. Can't remember who presented them. Party, Bagman, Chrome or someone as well known here that I have great respect for anyway.

All thing said and done, I think the system has produced a very nice line up of possible winners. I've made enough off this asystem in the past to afford an OS holiday for the handbrake and your's truly.

Then I believed in keeping good system off this forum. Now I'm experimenting with a Dr.Pergolas theory, give it a couple of bad weeks and the fireflies skip to the next new thing. In other words I don't believe a winning system that is published affects prices. That is why I have put up 2 systems and anybody who's been around these traps knows that I generally don't put up tips or systems. I'm testing a theory and thats all. If anyone can make hay along the way, well and good. Both of my systems are from my top draw and if I expose myself to ridicule if they happen to flame out, I'm big enough to handle the jibes from the back row.

Crash, not saying barriers can not be important, but any drop off in strike rate by being drawn wide is more than offset by higher SP/tote returns.

And the reason is not hard to see - because people like you come up with systems or other selection methods that disregard horses coming from wide barriers and it's a fatal flaw.

I'll look into that La Mer. I hear a voice in my head that says 'yeah. yeah he's right", but I would like to see some figures from someone who could confirm that with Stats. over a median, taking into account my intuitive [perhaps] road regarding that issue. I never mind being wrong when happy with the evidence. It's to my benefit $ wise.

Good stuff Crash. It actually sounds similar to something I was doing a while ago, it went something like this:

1.Races 1500 and upwards
2.Only look at the first 4 lines of betting from Fri Coureir Mail.
3.Back the horse that had the most recent start.
4.If equal back the shortest PP

The theory being that if the horse was going OK the trainer would back it up reasonably quickly. The PP market will sort out the class/fitness/recent form etc.

This was actually showing a profit of 25%+ over a year or so, but it went through a pretty bad patch and I cut my bet in half, as you say some of us just won't stick.

Apologies for not posting it another thread and taking up so much of yours.

Crash, how much are the bets placed on each? Do you keep them the same or fluctuate? Will be keen to see your results.