When the Fav is the Toppy
 

Gday All

I guess this is the right place to post this.. I have noticed something that may or may not stand up but I will share with you guys/gals just the same.

I have been betting the fav on good and dead tracks using my ratings, provided the fav is in the top 3.. It has proved to be ok.. But I noticed when the toppy is in the top 3 AND fav it improves markedly.. that is all the rules..

Anyway for today (watch em fall over) remember they have to be FAV I use Unitab to determine this

20/07/2006 12:12 GEELONG 1 1 ALL THE GLORY
20/07/2006 12:47 GEELONG 2 1 ON THE KNOCKER
20/07/2006 4:02 NORTHAM 7 1 EXSTRA
20/07/2006 12:57 ROCKHAMPTON 1 1 HAPPY SPOT
20/07/2006 1:32 ROCKHAMPTON 2 1 GIGGLING BOY
20/07/2006 2:07 ROCKHAMPTON 3 1 RIN TIN
20/07/2006 2:45 ROCKHAMPTON 4 1 CARD PLAYER
20/07/2006 3:55 ROCKHAMPTON 6 1 GENERATOR
20/07/2006 4:34 ROCKHAMPTON 7 1 ROLE OF NED


good Luck with em.. win betting seems to be the way to go.. but Crash's
(I think) 1x6 might work

Hi xpt,

Don't see you in this section often. Of course it's the kiss of death here for most [once great] systems. It seems to kill them dead !

Anyway, the 1x6 ew ratio isn't a bad move. The old number 1 is pretty good at running at least a place, especially when favourite.

Gday Crash...

yeah I thought it might be worth chucking in the ring.. In handicaps half the work is done for ya by the handicapper so why not use his skills... specially if it coincides with your own ideas ...

Keep backin plenty of winners :)

Hi Xpt,

I noticed you had prices up for a couple of races last Sat. I tried to replicate them from your ratings. It looks as if you lengthen the price for the top rater and shorten the rest. Is that right?

Gday Chinbok...

no.. what I do is convert the top rater to 100.. so if the top rater is 80 I do this 80/.8 =100.. then fill down that formula for the rest of the race... It makes it easier if the top rater is 100.. and keeps the relativitiy with the rest of the field.

I then use a very simple and very old (rough as well) way of allocating rankings it goes like this.. goit it froma well known racing mag actually.. 100,75,56,42,32,24,18,13,10,8,6,4,3,2,1

I will skip a rank if there is a gap of 10 or so points (on the converted rating)

You then total the rankings... Say the total is 400.. U then divide the 400 by each individual horse ranking.. So if the horse ranking is 100 .. the assessed price is $4.00 if it is 75 it is $5.3 and so on.. That will give you a 100% market

To replicate the TABS around the place I then divide the assessed price by 1.18 should give you a 118% market or there abouts...

All prices are to 1 decimal point

See attached for the last Race at Rocky today to get an idea of how I do it

Hope that helps a bit

xpt,
Warned you about this forum page. your system is getting a bit of a hiding mate.

Fav in newspaper, with either t-d-c,

20/07/2006 12:57 ROCKHAMPTON 1 1 HAPPY SPOT .td.2nd.
20/07/2006 1:32 ROCKHAMPTON 2 1 GIGGLING BOY ..t.1st $4.20
20/07/2006 3:55 ROCKHAMPTON 6 1 GENERATOR ..t.x
20/07/2006 4:34 ROCKHAMPTON 7 1 ROLE OF NED..c.1st $3.90

Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhh ........ *sigh* Always the way eh?

2 bets 2 losses ah well the last at Rocky #1 2nd Fav on UNI fav elsewhere and wins... thats the punt tho mate... I use Uni I hope some others didn't :)

Still Got northam left tho

Indeed something to consider... Thanks for that

20/07/2006 12:12 GEELONG 1 1 ALL THE GLORY unp. [3rd. fav.] nb.
20/07/2006 12:47 GEELONG 2 1 ON THE KNOCKER $1.90p fav.
20/07/2006 4:02 NORTHAM 7 1 EXSTRA 3rd. fav. unp. nb.
20/07/2006 12:57 ROCKHAMPTON 1 1 HAPPY SPOT $1.90p. [3rd. fav.] nb.
20/07/2006 1:32 ROCKHAMPTON 2 1 GIGGLING BOY $1.90p [3rd. fav.] nb.
20/07/2006 2:07 ROCKHAMPTON 3 1 RIN TIN odds-on fav. unp.
20/07/2006 2:45 ROCKHAMPTON 4 1 CARD PLAYER 3rd. fav. unp. nb.
20/07/2006 3:55 ROCKHAMPTON 6 1 GENERATOR Fav. unp.
20/07/2006 4:34 ROCKHAMPTON 7 1 ROLE OF NED Fav. $3.70w $1.90p

Prices stab.