These 2 horses cannot be beaten:

Rosehill - R2 2 Size Her Up.
Moonee Valley - R6 2 Rubitano.

Will start short i know but will win!!!

These 2 selections are from a plan that has a 100% strike rate in the past 4 years!!!

However these 2 are only the 41st and 42nd selections in that period.

We all know the hoodoo about posting selections on the forum PLEASE DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN TO ME TODAY , but if they don't win any criticism or flak thrown my way is fully acceptable.

Another one falls to the curse of the forum! Better luck with the 2nd bet but I think that may be a bit of a brave call!

Are you telling us that your system has thrown up 40 straight winners?
Man you must be rich.

Odds on...look on!

Dear Testarosa,

Ouch. This is not to rub salt in the wound with Size her up but just to comment. I assume you are talking about the Charter Publishing system. It's one I bought and intend to ask for a refund on, not because this horse lost, but because the system itself doesn't work to provide a weekly return. The extremely small number of picks at extremely short odds with a huge number of weeks between picks means it's almost impossible to build up from a small bank to a large enough bank to be able to take out profits in anything less than a year. Its other weakness is level betting with 30% of your bank on each selection. With this one loss anyone using the system would have wiped out a years worth of profit. I'm going back to staking on longer odds propositions.The other problem with the system is that with this one loss it has just shown itself to be flawed. How will you bring yourself to trust it again when the stakes are so high for such small returns. Good luck with your punting.

Double ouch, okay now I am rubbing salt into the wound. I am never, ever going to bet under the odds again. Its' time I did some homework.

luckylouie, it may help to remember there is no such thing as a horse that cannot be beaten. Every horse in a race has some % chances of winning. That also means every horse in a race has some % chances of losing.
When someone tells you a horse is "a certainty" or "it cannot lose" it pays to always take that with a grain of salt.
What I do is assess a horses chances of winning a race. I back horses where I obtain significantly better odds than my assessment of the horse's winning chances. I always take into account that every other horse has some chance, however small, of winning the race.

Thought Rubitano was a brave call for a "cannot be beaten" bet when you had Mystegic and Shaye Spice in the race - I didn't see the actual race so maybe someone can tell me how Rubitano actually ran?

As the Sky commentators are so fond of saying (usually after the race when the horse they were raving about 2 minutes earlier has been beaten) - "There's no such thing as a sure thing in racing."

Better luck next time.

_________________
"So certain are you. Always with you it cannot be done. Hear you nothing that I say?" - Yoda

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-08-17 19:23 ]

Catparrot - couldn't agree more. Never believe anyone who says a horse cannot be beaten because every horse can lose. Even if a horse has a 70% chance of winning a race there is still a 30% chance it will lose. If one of the other runners has a 10% chance but you can get 20:1 on it because all the dumb money is on the "certainty" then that is a good bet.

WELL WELL WELL never again will i be posting a "certainty".

Unbelievable , nothing can get past the hex or hoodoo of the this forum can it?

Luckylouie - Yes you are correct it is the Charter publishing system.One of my friends bought it a few weeks ago and being a bit of a novice at punting showed it to me its first pick since then was Rubitano 2 weeks ago and as we know it won well , so at first i thought this might not be to bad (even though looking at the rules some appear to be totally illogical!!!)

So i thought i would post the next selection(s) on the forum and look what happens.

Size Her Up didn't run to bad but was never a threat and Rubitano , well what can you say 2nd last over the line nothing to excuse it but an irregularity which we probably won't know till the morning.

Catparrot - This may sound totally hypocritical but i definetely agree with you that no horse is a "certainty" or a "sure thing" but when you are totally confident about a horses winning chances what else can you say "i think it will win" or "i hope it will win" , if you believe that you wouldn't you wouldn't be a very profitable punter.

Becareful - What happens if you back the 20/1 shot and the horse with a 70% chance of winning actually wins the race? Is the bet still a smart one?

I know this has been said and argued before but i believe one of the key components to successful betting is "AGGRESSION" , surely if you believe a horse is going to win a race you either back it or if its to short for your liking stay out of race.